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If I have the ability to predict coin tosses correct 55% of the time, that would be incredible - an almost unreal talent. And I'd be wrong 45% of the time. For
by lazzlazzlazz 8y ago
If I have the ability to predict coin tosses correct 55% of the time, that would be incredible - an almost unreal talent. And I'd be wrong 45% of the time.
For any one prediction, it's hard to say that a probability distribution is "wrong", but across many predictions, we can definitely evaluate the accuracy of a predictor and quantify whether they're useful or not.
538 has an excellent track record.
- idDriven 8y agoI know Mythbusters isn't the most scientific, but when they tested this, although with a small sample size so it could be off, if you choose Tails every time you should hit well over 55% based on the weight distribution of the coin.