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It's not even speculation. Urbanization is an ongoing process. Those properties will be filled. Whether or not the developer is liquid enough to hang in there u

It's not even speculation. Urbanization is an ongoing process. Those properties will be filled. Whether or not the developer is liquid enough to hang in there until they do is irrelevant from a societal point of view. That's all numbers and loans. People will inhabit those homes in a few years and the local communities will thrive and generate economic growth

seanmcdirmid 8y ago
That is naive. Many of those properties are built in places where they won’t fill up: coal mining towns that are on the decline, 3rd and 4th tier cities that barely qualify as urban, 40 miles away from the nearest job in a second tier city. Yes, you can buy way outside the sixth ring road, but they have no buses or subway, what will you do, drive?
- Arn_Thor 8y ago
  Sure, not every single project is going to succeed. But the government is executing a long term strategy. Rather than a few extremely large megacities, the plan is to boost mid-tier cities and the small towns that connect them. So a lot of these small towns that don't have anything going for them right now will be connected in time. Spending on building out infrastructure continues. Remember the photos from a few years ago of subway entrances in the middle of a field? Now they're in the middle of dense neighborhoods.
  - paulie_a 8y ago
    When did that change? They were incredibly trying to cultivate and outright force mega cities. Leaving behind mega cities that are empty. Hell if you want to play out a pretend version of "I am legend" you could get pretty close. (Minus the zombies)
    - Arn_Thor 8y ago
      This animation by McKinsey shows a number of different paths for urbanization. There are many neuanced models, but they commonly divide into "supercities", "hub and spoke" and "distributed growth". https://www.mckinsey.com/tools/Wrappers/Redesign/InteractiveWrapper.aspx?sc_itemid={6FDAB687-4E4B-45A6-95BB-534DCA65A88D} https://www.mckinsey.com/tools/Wrappers/Redesign/Interactive... Quote from a related 2009 report called "Preparing for China's Urban Billion": "China's current urbanization path will show a pronounced expansion in the number of midsized cities across the country. Although China today has two megacities [Shanghai and Beijing] and a number of prominent hub-and-spoke systems [...] many midsized cities are growing in parallel and will become more and more relevant in the national landscape." Now, I haven't done any close reading on this for the past few years, but back in 2014 or so the consensus among China-watchers was that the government both in policy and in action had clearly staked a path somewhere between the "hub and spoke" and "distributed growth" models. The high speed rail network is an important part of this, creating economic hot spots along the path between existing supercities. In fact, in the intervening time they have disincentivized further growth of Shanghai and Beijing, and is creating a new administrative city south of Beijing and west of Tianjin rather than expanding each of those two supercities. I have no idea what empty megacities you're referring to...
      - seanmcdirmid 8y ago
        No one significant has ever said China has empty mega cities, or even empty cities, they are more like empty districts of existing cities (eg Kangbashi of Ordos, Tianjin Financial district, etc...). The western press latches onto “ghost cities” because Chinese city/town administration units are weird to westerners.
        Arn_Thor 8y ago
        This is the comment I replied to: "When did that change? They were incredibly trying to cultivate and outright force mega cities. Leaving behind mega cities that are empty. Hell if you want to play out a pretend version of "I am legend" you could get pretty close. (Minus the zombies) " I am I having a stroke, or did that comment refer to "mega cities that are empty"?

seanmcdirmid 8y ago

That is naive. Many of those properties are built in places where they won’t fill up: coal mining towns that are on the decline, 3rd and 4th tier cities that barely qualify as urban, 40 miles away from the nearest job in a second tier city. Yes, you can buy way outside the sixth ring road, but they have no buses or subway, what will you do, drive?

Arn_Thor 8y ago
Sure, not every single project is going to succeed. But the government is executing a long term strategy. Rather than a few extremely large megacities, the plan is to boost mid-tier cities and the small towns that connect them. So a lot of these small towns that don't have anything going for them right now will be connected in time. Spending on building out infrastructure continues. Remember the photos from a few years ago of subway entrances in the middle of a field? Now they're in the middle of dense neighborhoods.
- paulie_a 8y ago
  When did that change? They were incredibly trying to cultivate and outright force mega cities. Leaving behind mega cities that are empty. Hell if you want to play out a pretend version of "I am legend" you could get pretty close. (Minus the zombies)
  - Arn_Thor 8y ago
    This animation by McKinsey shows a number of different paths for urbanization. There are many neuanced models, but they commonly divide into "supercities", "hub and spoke" and "distributed growth". https://www.mckinsey.com/tools/Wrappers/Redesign/InteractiveWrapper.aspx?sc_itemid={6FDAB687-4E4B-45A6-95BB-534DCA65A88D} https://www.mckinsey.com/tools/Wrappers/Redesign/Interactive... Quote from a related 2009 report called "Preparing for China's Urban Billion": "China's current urbanization path will show a pronounced expansion in the number of midsized cities across the country. Although China today has two megacities [Shanghai and Beijing] and a number of prominent hub-and-spoke systems [...] many midsized cities are growing in parallel and will become more and more relevant in the national landscape." Now, I haven't done any close reading on this for the past few years, but back in 2014 or so the consensus among China-watchers was that the government both in policy and in action had clearly staked a path somewhere between the "hub and spoke" and "distributed growth" models. The high speed rail network is an important part of this, creating economic hot spots along the path between existing supercities. In fact, in the intervening time they have disincentivized further growth of Shanghai and Beijing, and is creating a new administrative city south of Beijing and west of Tianjin rather than expanding each of those two supercities. I have no idea what empty megacities you're referring to...
    - seanmcdirmid 8y ago
      No one significant has ever said China has empty mega cities, or even empty cities, they are more like empty districts of existing cities (eg Kangbashi of Ordos, Tianjin Financial district, etc...). The western press latches onto “ghost cities” because Chinese city/town administration units are weird to westerners.
      - Arn_Thor 8y ago
        This is the comment I replied to: "When did that change? They were incredibly trying to cultivate and outright force mega cities. Leaving behind mega cities that are empty. Hell if you want to play out a pretend version of "I am legend" you could get pretty close. (Minus the zombies) " I am I having a stroke, or did that comment refer to "mega cities that are empty"?