4 ms·

While problematic in the short term, the scale of urbanization and decreasing domicile density alongside rising GDP/capita will allow China to eat through the s

by hodder 8y ago

While problematic in the short term, the scale of urbanization and decreasing domicile density alongside rising GDP/capita will allow China to eat through the slack inventory in the coming years. They are adding about 1 NY metropolitan area worth of urban dwellers per yr: https://www.statista.com/statistics/278566/urban-and-rural-population-of-china/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/278566/urban-and-rural-p... Urban region Rural regions 2017 813.47 576.61 2016 792.98 589.73 2015 771.16 603.46 2014 749.16 618.66 2013 731.11 629.61 2012 711.82 642.22 2011 690.79 656.56 2010 669.78 671.13 2009 645.12 689.38 2008 624.03 703.99

FooHentai 8y ago
Maybe, if you consider that trend line to be a stable one that'll just keep progressing upwards on the chart. But that doesn't seem to be a sure thing. Also, the state of some of these buildings is worth noting - Much like Nail Houses, there's a significant portion of these developments that were made to sell for investment purposes alone, and are not going to be suitable for habitation.
- Arn_Thor 8y ago
  Source on that, please. Sure, the construction work can be shoddy (though it's improved a lot in the last five years, and unsold property in CHina right now is usually younger), but it's absolutely livable
  - FooHentai 8y ago
    "Immediately above us towered what could have been the headquarters of a bank — forty floors of office space, wrapped in a shell of mirrored panels. In its un-maintained state however, these reflective scales were falling away in great swathes, to expose the bare concrete beneath. Not even finished yet, and already it needed a makeover." https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2014/03/welcome-to-the-worlds-largest-ghost-city-ordos-china/ https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2014/03/welcome-to-the-worlds-lar... "the farmers that own the land here get the cheapest materials, and make these pop up out of nowhere": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcyYyyaPz84&t=666 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcyYyyaPz84&t=666 Follow-up video "Are new chinese buildings really falling down?": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XopSDJq6w8E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XopSDJq6w8E tl;dr yes. Note at 2:30 "We saw this place being built three years ago".
droopyEyelids 8y ago
Dont forget there are nearly a billion people who will have to migrate out of low-lying areas on the east of India/bangladesh over the next few decades as sea levels continue to rise. China is wise to have extra housing capacity. Even if they are 'nail houses' ... they only have to beat sleeping in the streets.
- i_am_nomad 8y ago
  That assumes that China will welcome immigration on a historically unprecedented scale. Seems unlikely.
- jonathankoren 8y ago
  It’s unclear to me why Bangladeshis would migrate to China as opposed to India or Pakistan.
  - Mikeb85 8y ago
    They've already tried to annex a part of Myanmar...
  - imtringued 8y ago
    Probably because china has 50 million empty apartments. 3 People per apartment should be enough to let all of Bangladesh escape (they'll need it).
    - jonathankoren 8y ago
      Countries aren't fungible commodities. The problem isn't if there's a spare bedroom, it's the political, social, and economic forces. And since we're talking about mass migration, we also have to talk about geography. Think about it. In order to get to China, you have to cross the Himalayas, probably on foot. Then once you're there, you have to enter an economy (perhaps clandestinely) where you can't speak the language, have no large population of people that speak your language, have no common social ties, and if that wasn't enough challenges, the country is famous for clamping down hard on internal economic migration (i.e. the hukou system), and has no history of foreign immigration since... ever? It's just not plausible. You can walk to India. You can walk to Pakistan. There are cultural ties to Pakistan. If you want to go someplace outside of South Asia, Kuwait and the other Gulf States have extensive Bangladeshi expat communities, due to the number of migrants workers. (Hell, 70% of Kuwait's population isn't Kuwaiti[0].) [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Kuwait https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Kuwait
justicezyx 8y ago
Yes, I can guarantee from my personal seeing of my home village that the government indeed can mobilize people moving into apartments in city. Now I look back, China really will be the next super power. The management and controlling are simply on a different dimension.
sct202 8y ago
There must be a lot of vacant/abandoned homes in the countryside with such a rapid shift.
- BurningFrog 8y ago
  I'm guessing they're quite modest third world dwellings.

by hodder 8y ago

FooHentai 8y ago

Maybe, if you consider that trend line to be a stable one that'll just keep progressing upwards on the chart. But that doesn't seem to be a sure thing. Also, the state of some of these buildings is worth noting - Much like Nail Houses, there's a significant portion of these developments that were made to sell for investment purposes alone, and are not going to be suitable for habitation.

Arn_Thor 8y ago
Source on that, please. Sure, the construction work can be shoddy (though it's improved a lot in the last five years, and unsold property in CHina right now is usually younger), but it's absolutely livable
- FooHentai 8y ago
  "Immediately above us towered what could have been the headquarters of a bank — forty floors of office space, wrapped in a shell of mirrored panels. In its un-maintained state however, these reflective scales were falling away in great swathes, to expose the bare concrete beneath. Not even finished yet, and already it needed a makeover." https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2014/03/welcome-to-the-worlds-largest-ghost-city-ordos-china/ https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2014/03/welcome-to-the-worlds-lar... "the farmers that own the land here get the cheapest materials, and make these pop up out of nowhere": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcyYyyaPz84&t=666 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BcyYyyaPz84&t=666 Follow-up video "Are new chinese buildings really falling down?": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XopSDJq6w8E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XopSDJq6w8E tl;dr yes. Note at 2:30 "We saw this place being built three years ago".

droopyEyelids 8y ago

Dont forget there are nearly a billion people who will have to migrate out of low-lying areas on the east of India/bangladesh over the next few decades as sea levels continue to rise. China is wise to have extra housing capacity. Even if they are 'nail houses' ... they only have to beat sleeping in the streets.

i_am_nomad 8y ago
That assumes that China will welcome immigration on a historically unprecedented scale. Seems unlikely.
jonathankoren 8y ago
It’s unclear to me why Bangladeshis would migrate to China as opposed to India or Pakistan.
- Mikeb85 8y ago
  They've already tried to annex a part of Myanmar...
- imtringued 8y ago
  Probably because china has 50 million empty apartments. 3 People per apartment should be enough to let all of Bangladesh escape (they'll need it).
  - jonathankoren 8y ago
    Countries aren't fungible commodities. The problem isn't if there's a spare bedroom, it's the political, social, and economic forces. And since we're talking about mass migration, we also have to talk about geography. Think about it. In order to get to China, you have to cross the Himalayas, probably on foot. Then once you're there, you have to enter an economy (perhaps clandestinely) where you can't speak the language, have no large population of people that speak your language, have no common social ties, and if that wasn't enough challenges, the country is famous for clamping down hard on internal economic migration (i.e. the hukou system), and has no history of foreign immigration since... ever? It's just not plausible. You can walk to India. You can walk to Pakistan. There are cultural ties to Pakistan. If you want to go someplace outside of South Asia, Kuwait and the other Gulf States have extensive Bangladeshi expat communities, due to the number of migrants workers. (Hell, 70% of Kuwait's population isn't Kuwaiti[0].) [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Kuwait https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Kuwait

justicezyx 8y ago

Yes, I can guarantee from my personal seeing of my home village that the government indeed can mobilize people moving into apartments in city. Now I look back, China really will be the next super power. The management and controlling are simply on a different dimension.

sct202 8y ago

There must be a lot of vacant/abandoned homes in the countryside with such a rapid shift.

BurningFrog 8y ago
I'm guessing they're quite modest third world dwellings.