> If you're conditionally making the second bet based on outside factors, then you might not actually be implementing a strategy of reduced variance. This does

> If you're conditionally making the second bet based on outside factors, then you might not actually be implementing a strategy of reduced variance. This doesn't make sense to me. What are "outside" factors and why do they matter? When you place the second bet, you have risk that you are reducing. Whether that risk has changed since you placed your first bet has no effect on whether your second bet reduces your risk or not. > I'd rather deal with simpler upfront scenarios. I'm sure you would, but you have failed to explain the relevance of upfront scenarios to our discussion. > If you don't have enough info you might overpay, but overpaying isn't gambling. You have still failed to explain WHY you think reducing risk by placing a bet that you will be injured is not gambling but placing other bets that reduce risk are.