11 ms·

Shutdown Will Be Worse for Economy Than First Thought, White House Says

78 points by craftyguy 8y ago

gwentforfun 8y ago
Why are the democrats so keen on stopping the wall from being built? I heard some of them supported the walls before. Also, what's so immoral about walls? Alot of european countries now have walls against the influx of migrants. Our houses have walls and locks, why not our country?
matte_black 8y ago
How are the shutdown’s effects on the economy being measured? Where did they come up with 0.1% loss every 2 weeks?
- ams6110 8y ago
  Good question. As will all previous shutdowns, I have not noticed any impact whatsoever.
  - ceejayoz 8y ago
    I'm curious about what indicators in your personal life you'd use to judge the difference between a country-level 2.7 and 2.8% GDP growth rate for the year.
  - guidedlight 8y ago
    There has been no guarantee of back pay for furloughed workers. This is also the first shutdown where military servicemen have not been paid.
    - oftenwrong 8y ago
      https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/bill-announcement-19/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/bill-announc...
  - BucketSort 8y ago
    Using yourself as a measure of these things is a horrible idea. Most impact is long term and not immediate to our personal lives. These shenanigans are deteriorating people's faith in the government and the country. This will have incredible consequences. Society runs smoothly when people feel their government is taking care of things. When people have reason to doubt their government, it naturally instills a sense of panic and self-preservation which I would expect hurts the economy in many subtle ways.
  - SolaceQuantum 8y ago
    I noticed the shutdown of last year. In particular, my advisor(I was a doctorate student at the time) was informed he won a significant award by the NSF with guaranteed funding and was unable to recieve it until two months or so after the shutdown. (As a side note we were also disrupted by the immigration ban, and were unable to bring on excellent scholars to pursue research at our facility.) I'm no longer in research, but of my companions who are, this is definitely being felt.
    - kaitai 8y ago
      Yep. NIH granting cycle is totally derailed & it's job interview season in academia.
  - jedberg 8y ago
    The impact at this point is mostly on government workers and the poor. I assume you're lucky enough not to be in one of those groups. Most of the effects aren't immediate. The government does a lot of long term work, things that wouldn't otherwise be profitable. For example, with the shutdown, they've stopped inspecting our food supply. This will affect no one immediately. But in a few weeks, when we have our first e.coli outbreak, assuming we even hear about it (because that's something the CDC, another government org, tracks) then you can talk to those people about how it affected them, assuming they haven't died. The government is currently missing their training and drills for hurricane preparedness. So in June-October, when a hurricane devastates some part of the US and everyone is screaming, "why aren't they helping people!?", the answer will be, "because they didn't get their training in January". And right now NOAA isn't doing their climate research. So in 10 years, when there is a hole in the data that we need to fill out climate models, they won't be there. And no one will even remember why. But no one thinks long term like that.
  - zorpner 8y ago
    This federal employee has to choose whether or not to use her small amount of remaining insulin: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/federal-worker-forced-ration-insulin-because-government-shutdown-n958066 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/federal-worker-forced-r... Her blood sugar rose to a high level last week, but she said she felt forced to ignore it. Instead, she went to bed. “When it gets that high you can go into diabetic ketoacidosis, you can go into a coma,” she said. “I can’t afford to go to the ER. I can’t afford anything. I just went to bed and hoped I’d wake up.”
- theplague42 8y ago
  > The original estimate that the partial shutdown would subtract 0.1 percentage point from growth every two weeks has now been doubled to a 0.1 percentage point subtraction every week, according to an official who asked not to be named. > The administration had initially counted just the impact from the 800,000 federal workers not receiving their paychecks. But they now believe the impact doubles, due to greater losses from private contractors also out of work and other government spending and functions that won't occur. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/source-white-house-believes-shutdown-will-be-twice-as-costly.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/source-white-house-believes-...
- the_mitsuhiko 8y ago
  I presume extrapolation from a million of people not receiving paychecks. I assume it's not too different from how you normally estimate GDP.
- gniv 8y ago
  I was curious too, and I found this paper discussing the effects of a 2.5 week shutdown in 2013: https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a589972.pdf https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a589972.pdf (8 pages, I haven't read it all yet, but does seem to have some insights).
x0054 8y ago
It’s not about the wall being immoral. It’s about it being monumentally stupid and a waste of money. There are much better solutions.
- baron816 8y ago
  I think the more important thing is to keep a single branch from using a shutdown as a tool to get their way. Government via hostage taking is not democratic.
  - sigfubar 8y ago
    Both branches of the government are holding the country hostage.
    - dragontamer 8y ago
      Only one person veto'd the continuing resolution this time around. We know who to blame. If both sides walked away from the CR, then maybe you'd have a point. But only ONE side (of the three sides: House, Senate, and President) have walked away from the CR. Shutdown also started when the House was controlled by Republicans. The shutdown was 10-days old before Pelosi took the gavel and Democrats entered the house. Former speaker Ryan didn't feel like fixing the issue on his way out, so he left it to the Democrats. McConnell, while he's gone into hiding recently, managed to pass a bill in late December which could have prevented the shutdown (so McConnell barely gets a passing grade. A C-, he did something to stop the shutdown at least. But McConnell should show some leadership and rally the Senate to stop the shutdown today, just as he did back in December) I place the blame mostly on the President (for destroying the CR agreement McConnell passed), and somewhat on Mr. Ryan for walking away from the problem on the last 10 days of his Speakership.
      - pastor_elm 8y ago
        Republicans passed a CR while they had the house but it was filibustered by Democrats in the Senate. So TWO sides have walked away actually.
xwvvvvwx 8y ago
It’s also gonna make it way harder for the gov to attract talent for a while.
- thatoneuser 8y ago
  Eh. Most government positions are really "big talent" kind of ordeal. Most are a stable way to make decent money with great benefits and retirement. The ones that are valuable will still get their talent I'm sure.
JTbane 8y ago
I, for one, am very glad to not be a government worker. Imagine getting a free month-long unpaid vacation, or worse, a month of work without pay!
- twunde 8y ago
  Even worse, there's no known end date. You can't go traveling, visit your family or anything else you'd do on vacation because the shutdown _could_ end tomorrow and then you'd have to go back.
assblaster 8y ago
If the wall is immoral and ineffective, should the United States destruct the existing portions of the wall already built at the US-Mexican border?
- jrochkind1 8y ago
  I mean, I'd say yes, but you don't have to think so to not want to spend billions on more of it.
- cenal 8y ago
  Watched this video from CBS News recently and it looks like portions of the wall in place are sticks with wire: https://youtu.be/5o4d6Wp3u2Q https://youtu.be/5o4d6Wp3u2Q
  - assblaster 8y ago
    What about the wall at the border by San Diego? That's a much better fortified structure, and if immoral and against the principles of the United States, wouldn't this portion be worth getting rid of?
- atoav 8y ago
  The wall is symbolic. It is completely useless for the proclaimed purpose.
- jasonlotito 8y ago
  If walls are effective, why isn't the plan to build one around all of the US? The reason is simple: walls aren't effective everywhere. The walls and fences that are up now? They weren't just randomly placed. They were put where they were to do the most good. Some have been more effective than others, but all together, the problem is no longer along the souther border. As for the plan for the wall being immoral: it's not right to waste money on things that 1) don't have a real plan, and 2) we have solid evidence suggesting it won't be effective doing what we want it to do. If you want to stop people from entering the US illegally and living here, you would do well to cut off their supply of jobs. This means going after organizations like the ones Trump runs that hire these people. Not only will that be less expensive, it will be more effective, and have more of an immediate impact.
shereadsthenews 8y ago
Let’s all remind ourselves that before Newt Gingrich there was no such thing as shutting down the government.
TomMckenny 8y ago
Putin sure got his money's worth.
khawkins 8y ago
"Citing an unnamed official." This headline is misleading. It suggests that Trump administration officials are publicly reporting this, when the question of who is saying this cannot be confirmed.
war1025 8y ago
The way I've been thinking about it is that shutdown a couple years ago was really a game of chicken where neither side thought it was actually going to happen. This time around it's more of a siege tactic where the idea is to hunker down until one side feels enough pain that they will yield. It's really a case of which side's base can tolerate the pain longer without either flipping sides or losing faith in the leadership. Plus it's Trump's power tactic at letting the Dems know he's the boss even now that they have the House. He has zero problem playing the bad guy to get what he wants and come out on top.
- khawkins 8y ago
  It's just as much Pelosi and Schumer playing politics. They don't want to give him any money, despite this being a fairly small request, because they know that if he can't deliver on his central campaign promise it will tear his base away from him and secure his 2020 defeat.
  - war1025 8y ago
    Like I said, it's seige tactics on both sides. Which base is willing to starve for longer basically.
  - odorousrex 8y ago
    >because they know that if he can't deliver on his central campaign promise it will tear his base away from him and secure his 2020 defeat. This is not true. Trump could capitulate on the wall and he wouldn't lose a single voter in his "MAGA" base. He's basically a personality cult. Sure the conservative talking heads will rant and rave for a while, but by 2020 it will all be forgotten. All of his supporters will find internal justifications to support him again even if it's a simple as "never supporting a 'libtard'". (They would rally around Gorsuch/Kavanaugh, low taxes, et al...) Trump will blame democrats (ofc) and his base will see it that way. "He didn't surrender it's the 'DEEP STATE' that got him!" Pelosi/Schumer base is not so cultish - They won't forgive nor forget. They have everything to lose.
    - 8y ago
vikingcaffiene 8y ago
Ugh what a mess. It's not just that we are lighting money on fire, it's also that the reason for all of it is so pointless. Those poor furloughed workers are having very real damage inflicted upon them. Damage that will take years to recover from if they ever do. It's cruel, its pointless, its stupid. At this point the shutdown has cost more than a wall ever would. Then of course there's the more disturbing thought that if I were a Russian asset looking to sow chaos and economic instability in the country, a shutdown (and a trade war, and alienating our allies abroad) would do a pretty good job...
- nopriorarrests 8y ago
  >Damage that will take years to recover from if they ever do. Can you please elaborate? From my limited knowledge, furloughed workers haven't got a paycheck (yet) for a one month. Is this kind of damage they will be recovering from for years?
  - dragontamer 8y ago
    In the 2013 Shutdown, a number of government experiments (ie: Flu Experiments) were destroyed due to neglect from the shutdown. Which ended up having the worst Flu Vaccination success rate in the last 10 years or something (like a stupid low 30%). Etc. etc. Government projects are stopped during shutdowns. It literally takes years to recover from a shutdown (another year or two before Flu Vaccination experiments were back up and running at full potential)
    - nopriorarrests 8y ago
      OK, I get that some projects will have to restart from scratch, but this is not like furloughed workers have "some real damage inflicted upon them". It's just work, and their lives are more or less unaffected (with the exception of a single - so far - paycheck being delayed).
      - fzeroracer 8y ago
        A lot of people live paycheck to paycheck. To them, a single lost paycheck can mean not paying rent on time or not eating. Acting like this is not causing real damage is highly disingenuous.
nkurz 8y ago
Does anyone have thoughts on the theory that after 30 days of shutdown, it's easier to remove otherwise protected employees? The source I saw doesn't seem particularly trustworthy (https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/01/omb_issues_guidance_on_reduction_in_force_layoffs_due_to_partial_shutdown.html https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/01/omb_issues_guid...) but the argument seems plausible enough. The idea is that a fast-tracked "Reduction in Force" reorganization plan intended to permanently downsize the government could be backdated to the beginning of the shutdown, thus giving Trump considerable leverage over Congress. Is there anything to this argument?
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78 points by craftyguy 8y ago

Why are the democrats so keen on stopping the wall from being built? I heard some of them supported the walls before. Also, what's so immoral about walls? Alot of european countries now have walls against the influx of migrants. Our houses have walls and locks, why not our country?

matte_black 8y ago

How are the shutdown’s effects on the economy being measured? Where did they come up with 0.1% loss every 2 weeks?

ams6110 8y ago
Good question. As will all previous shutdowns, I have not noticed any impact whatsoever.
- ceejayoz 8y ago
  I'm curious about what indicators in your personal life you'd use to judge the difference between a country-level 2.7 and 2.8% GDP growth rate for the year.
- guidedlight 8y ago
  There has been no guarantee of back pay for furloughed workers. This is also the first shutdown where military servicemen have not been paid.
  - oftenwrong 8y ago
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/bill-announcement-19/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/bill-announc...
- BucketSort 8y ago
  Using yourself as a measure of these things is a horrible idea. Most impact is long term and not immediate to our personal lives. These shenanigans are deteriorating people's faith in the government and the country. This will have incredible consequences. Society runs smoothly when people feel their government is taking care of things. When people have reason to doubt their government, it naturally instills a sense of panic and self-preservation which I would expect hurts the economy in many subtle ways.
- SolaceQuantum 8y ago
  I noticed the shutdown of last year. In particular, my advisor(I was a doctorate student at the time) was informed he won a significant award by the NSF with guaranteed funding and was unable to recieve it until two months or so after the shutdown. (As a side note we were also disrupted by the immigration ban, and were unable to bring on excellent scholars to pursue research at our facility.) I'm no longer in research, but of my companions who are, this is definitely being felt.
  - kaitai 8y ago
    Yep. NIH granting cycle is totally derailed & it's job interview season in academia.
- jedberg 8y ago
  The impact at this point is mostly on government workers and the poor. I assume you're lucky enough not to be in one of those groups. Most of the effects aren't immediate. The government does a lot of long term work, things that wouldn't otherwise be profitable. For example, with the shutdown, they've stopped inspecting our food supply. This will affect no one immediately. But in a few weeks, when we have our first e.coli outbreak, assuming we even hear about it (because that's something the CDC, another government org, tracks) then you can talk to those people about how it affected them, assuming they haven't died. The government is currently missing their training and drills for hurricane preparedness. So in June-October, when a hurricane devastates some part of the US and everyone is screaming, "why aren't they helping people!?", the answer will be, "because they didn't get their training in January". And right now NOAA isn't doing their climate research. So in 10 years, when there is a hole in the data that we need to fill out climate models, they won't be there. And no one will even remember why. But no one thinks long term like that.
- zorpner 8y ago
  This federal employee has to choose whether or not to use her small amount of remaining insulin: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/federal-worker-forced-ration-insulin-because-government-shutdown-n958066 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/federal-worker-forced-r... Her blood sugar rose to a high level last week, but she said she felt forced to ignore it. Instead, she went to bed. “When it gets that high you can go into diabetic ketoacidosis, you can go into a coma,” she said. “I can’t afford to go to the ER. I can’t afford anything. I just went to bed and hoped I’d wake up.”
theplague42 8y ago
> The original estimate that the partial shutdown would subtract 0.1 percentage point from growth every two weeks has now been doubled to a 0.1 percentage point subtraction every week, according to an official who asked not to be named. > The administration had initially counted just the impact from the 800,000 federal workers not receiving their paychecks. But they now believe the impact doubles, due to greater losses from private contractors also out of work and other government spending and functions that won't occur. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/source-white-house-believes-shutdown-will-be-twice-as-costly.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/15/source-white-house-believes-...
the_mitsuhiko 8y ago
I presume extrapolation from a million of people not receiving paychecks. I assume it's not too different from how you normally estimate GDP.
gniv 8y ago
I was curious too, and I found this paper discussing the effects of a 2.5 week shutdown in 2013: https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a589972.pdf https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a589972.pdf (8 pages, I haven't read it all yet, but does seem to have some insights).

x0054 8y ago

It’s not about the wall being immoral. It’s about it being monumentally stupid and a waste of money. There are much better solutions.

baron816 8y ago
I think the more important thing is to keep a single branch from using a shutdown as a tool to get their way. Government via hostage taking is not democratic.
- sigfubar 8y ago
  Both branches of the government are holding the country hostage.
  - dragontamer 8y ago
    Only one person veto'd the continuing resolution this time around. We know who to blame. If both sides walked away from the CR, then maybe you'd have a point. But only ONE side (of the three sides: House, Senate, and President) have walked away from the CR. Shutdown also started when the House was controlled by Republicans. The shutdown was 10-days old before Pelosi took the gavel and Democrats entered the house. Former speaker Ryan didn't feel like fixing the issue on his way out, so he left it to the Democrats. McConnell, while he's gone into hiding recently, managed to pass a bill in late December which could have prevented the shutdown (so McConnell barely gets a passing grade. A C-, he did something to stop the shutdown at least. But McConnell should show some leadership and rally the Senate to stop the shutdown today, just as he did back in December) I place the blame mostly on the President (for destroying the CR agreement McConnell passed), and somewhat on Mr. Ryan for walking away from the problem on the last 10 days of his Speakership.
    - pastor_elm 8y ago
      Republicans passed a CR while they had the house but it was filibustered by Democrats in the Senate. So TWO sides have walked away actually.

xwvvvvwx 8y ago

It’s also gonna make it way harder for the gov to attract talent for a while.

thatoneuser 8y ago
Eh. Most government positions are really "big talent" kind of ordeal. Most are a stable way to make decent money with great benefits and retirement. The ones that are valuable will still get their talent I'm sure.

JTbane 8y ago

I, for one, am very glad to not be a government worker. Imagine getting a free month-long unpaid vacation, or worse, a month of work without pay!

twunde 8y ago
Even worse, there's no known end date. You can't go traveling, visit your family or anything else you'd do on vacation because the shutdown _could_ end tomorrow and then you'd have to go back.

assblaster 8y ago

If the wall is immoral and ineffective, should the United States destruct the existing portions of the wall already built at the US-Mexican border?

jrochkind1 8y ago
I mean, I'd say yes, but you don't have to think so to not want to spend billions on more of it.
cenal 8y ago
Watched this video from CBS News recently and it looks like portions of the wall in place are sticks with wire: https://youtu.be/5o4d6Wp3u2Q https://youtu.be/5o4d6Wp3u2Q
- assblaster 8y ago
  What about the wall at the border by San Diego? That's a much better fortified structure, and if immoral and against the principles of the United States, wouldn't this portion be worth getting rid of?
atoav 8y ago
The wall is symbolic. It is completely useless for the proclaimed purpose.
jasonlotito 8y ago
If walls are effective, why isn't the plan to build one around all of the US? The reason is simple: walls aren't effective everywhere. The walls and fences that are up now? They weren't just randomly placed. They were put where they were to do the most good. Some have been more effective than others, but all together, the problem is no longer along the souther border. As for the plan for the wall being immoral: it's not right to waste money on things that 1) don't have a real plan, and 2) we have solid evidence suggesting it won't be effective doing what we want it to do. If you want to stop people from entering the US illegally and living here, you would do well to cut off their supply of jobs. This means going after organizations like the ones Trump runs that hire these people. Not only will that be less expensive, it will be more effective, and have more of an immediate impact.

shereadsthenews 8y ago

Let’s all remind ourselves that before Newt Gingrich there was no such thing as shutting down the government.

TomMckenny 8y ago

Putin sure got his money's worth.

khawkins 8y ago

"Citing an unnamed official." This headline is misleading. It suggests that Trump administration officials are publicly reporting this, when the question of who is saying this cannot be confirmed.

war1025 8y ago

The way I've been thinking about it is that shutdown a couple years ago was really a game of chicken where neither side thought it was actually going to happen. This time around it's more of a siege tactic where the idea is to hunker down until one side feels enough pain that they will yield. It's really a case of which side's base can tolerate the pain longer without either flipping sides or losing faith in the leadership. Plus it's Trump's power tactic at letting the Dems know he's the boss even now that they have the House. He has zero problem playing the bad guy to get what he wants and come out on top.

khawkins 8y ago
It's just as much Pelosi and Schumer playing politics. They don't want to give him any money, despite this being a fairly small request, because they know that if he can't deliver on his central campaign promise it will tear his base away from him and secure his 2020 defeat.
- war1025 8y ago
  Like I said, it's seige tactics on both sides. Which base is willing to starve for longer basically.
- odorousrex 8y ago
  >because they know that if he can't deliver on his central campaign promise it will tear his base away from him and secure his 2020 defeat. This is not true. Trump could capitulate on the wall and he wouldn't lose a single voter in his "MAGA" base. He's basically a personality cult. Sure the conservative talking heads will rant and rave for a while, but by 2020 it will all be forgotten. All of his supporters will find internal justifications to support him again even if it's a simple as "never supporting a 'libtard'". (They would rally around Gorsuch/Kavanaugh, low taxes, et al...) Trump will blame democrats (ofc) and his base will see it that way. "He didn't surrender it's the 'DEEP STATE' that got him!" Pelosi/Schumer base is not so cultish - They won't forgive nor forget. They have everything to lose.
  - 8y ago

vikingcaffiene 8y ago

Ugh what a mess. It's not just that we are lighting money on fire, it's also that the reason for all of it is so pointless. Those poor furloughed workers are having very real damage inflicted upon them. Damage that will take years to recover from if they ever do. It's cruel, its pointless, its stupid. At this point the shutdown has cost more than a wall ever would. Then of course there's the more disturbing thought that if I were a Russian asset looking to sow chaos and economic instability in the country, a shutdown (and a trade war, and alienating our allies abroad) would do a pretty good job...

nopriorarrests 8y ago
>Damage that will take years to recover from if they ever do. Can you please elaborate? From my limited knowledge, furloughed workers haven't got a paycheck (yet) for a one month. Is this kind of damage they will be recovering from for years?
- dragontamer 8y ago
  In the 2013 Shutdown, a number of government experiments (ie: Flu Experiments) were destroyed due to neglect from the shutdown. Which ended up having the worst Flu Vaccination success rate in the last 10 years or something (like a stupid low 30%). Etc. etc. Government projects are stopped during shutdowns. It literally takes years to recover from a shutdown (another year or two before Flu Vaccination experiments were back up and running at full potential)
  - nopriorarrests 8y ago
    OK, I get that some projects will have to restart from scratch, but this is not like furloughed workers have "some real damage inflicted upon them". It's just work, and their lives are more or less unaffected (with the exception of a single - so far - paycheck being delayed).
    - fzeroracer 8y ago
      A lot of people live paycheck to paycheck. To them, a single lost paycheck can mean not paying rent on time or not eating. Acting like this is not causing real damage is highly disingenuous.

nkurz 8y ago

Does anyone have thoughts on the theory that after 30 days of shutdown, it's easier to remove otherwise protected employees? The source I saw doesn't seem particularly trustworthy (https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/01/omb_issues_guidance_on_reduction_in_force_layoffs_due_to_partial_shutdown.html https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/01/omb_issues_guid...) but the argument seems plausible enough. The idea is that a fast-tracked "Reduction in Force" reorganization plan intended to permanently downsize the government could be backdated to the beginning of the shutdown, thus giving Trump considerable leverage over Congress. Is there anything to this argument?

Hacker_Support 8y ago

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Hacker_Support 8y ago

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