4 ms·

This is terrible news and shows what I think a lot of folks already knew. Falling birthrates are generally terrible for both the economy and society as a while.

This is terrible news and shows what I think a lot of folks already knew. Falling birthrates are generally terrible for both the economy and society as a while. An aside: In my social circle I know dozens of older millennial couples who would love to have children however due to massive student loan debts & high rent/mortgage payments the concept is simply unaffordable. The student loan crisis is going to result in a "lost generation."

convolvatron 8y ago
at some point, we're going to have to stop assuming that indefinite unstructured economic growth is a given and necessarily good. maybe that time is past, or its far in the future. but shouldn't we start adapting to that eventuality rather than having to wake up suddenly to the reality that we're running out of natural resources to support a growing population and filling our own house with pollution? flattening of population growth or a very slow decline should be exactly what we should be hoping for.
- makerofspoons 8y ago
  Exactly. Earth Overshoot Day (the day in a given year humans consume more than Earth's capacity to regenerate those resources) keeps getting earlier and earlier each year: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Overshoot_Day https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Overshoot_Day. Our population and economic growth have not meaningfully deviated from the predictions made in the Club of Rome's report Limits to Growth, which means unless we start bending both curves further down soon we are on track for collapse: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07117-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07117-2
  - wbl 8y ago
    The prices of resources disagree with that assessment.
    - makerofspoons 8y ago
      The prices aren't including the cost of environmental destruction- we have allowed that to be an externality.
    - krageon 8y ago
      They don't disagree with anything, they just are. And the beautiful thing about that is that they can be the way they are and be totally unrelated to any real cost.
lkrubner 8y ago
The solution, for your friends and for the economy, is more immigration. If the USA could some how get itself 5 million immigrants a year (an ambitious target) then the economy would grow so fast that your friends, lifted by the overall economy, should have an easier time paying off their debts. And also, higher levels of immigration would help the USA avoid any of the negative effects of falling fertility. All 4 of my grandparents came to the USA at a time when the USA still had open borders and I’d like to think that they and my parents made a positive contribution.
- deogeo 8y ago
  > when the USA still had open borders Even under Trump, US borders are more open than ever, so the past tense is unwarranted. Sources: https://edition.cnn.com/2013/11/06/us/immigration-statistics-fast-facts/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2013/11/06/us/immigration-statistics... https://cis.org/Report/US-Immigrant-Population-Hit-Record-437-Million-2016 https://cis.org/Report/US-Immigrant-Population-Hit-Record-43...
  - lkrubner 8y ago
    Did you read the article you linked to? The sub title includes “Overall growth slowed”. And anyway it’s talking about the total immigrant population that’s built up over several decades, and even if that wasn’t an issue, it’s talking about absolute numbers rather than percentages of the population. As a percent of the population, immigration to the USA peaked in the early 20th century, which is when my 4 grandparents arrived. Immigration to the USA, nowadays, is just a small trickle, compared to what it used to be.
    - deogeo 8y ago
      From the chart in my second link, 2016 immigrant population (good proxy for yearly immigration) was 13.5%. The highest it has been since 1900 is 14.7%. How is that a trickle? For comparison, in 2010, China's population was 0.04% immigrant - 300-times less, per capita, than the US! Edit: More international comparison: in 2015, India's population was 0.5% immigrant, Japan's 1.9%, Brazil's 0.9%, South Korea's 2.9%, Mexico's 0.9%, and Turkey's was 3.8%.

convolvatron 8y ago

at some point, we're going to have to stop assuming that indefinite unstructured economic growth is a given and necessarily good. maybe that time is past, or its far in the future. but shouldn't we start adapting to that eventuality rather than having to wake up suddenly to the reality that we're running out of natural resources to support a growing population and filling our own house with pollution? flattening of population growth or a very slow decline should be exactly what we should be hoping for.

makerofspoons 8y ago
Exactly. Earth Overshoot Day (the day in a given year humans consume more than Earth's capacity to regenerate those resources) keeps getting earlier and earlier each year: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Overshoot_Day https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Overshoot_Day. Our population and economic growth have not meaningfully deviated from the predictions made in the Club of Rome's report Limits to Growth, which means unless we start bending both curves further down soon we are on track for collapse: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07117-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07117-2
- wbl 8y ago
  The prices of resources disagree with that assessment.
  - makerofspoons 8y ago
    The prices aren't including the cost of environmental destruction- we have allowed that to be an externality.
  - krageon 8y ago
    They don't disagree with anything, they just are. And the beautiful thing about that is that they can be the way they are and be totally unrelated to any real cost.

lkrubner 8y ago

The solution, for your friends and for the economy, is more immigration. If the USA could some how get itself 5 million immigrants a year (an ambitious target) then the economy would grow so fast that your friends, lifted by the overall economy, should have an easier time paying off their debts. And also, higher levels of immigration would help the USA avoid any of the negative effects of falling fertility. All 4 of my grandparents came to the USA at a time when the USA still had open borders and I’d like to think that they and my parents made a positive contribution.

deogeo 8y ago
> when the USA still had open borders Even under Trump, US borders are more open than ever, so the past tense is unwarranted. Sources: https://edition.cnn.com/2013/11/06/us/immigration-statistics-fast-facts/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2013/11/06/us/immigration-statistics... https://cis.org/Report/US-Immigrant-Population-Hit-Record-437-Million-2016 https://cis.org/Report/US-Immigrant-Population-Hit-Record-43...
- lkrubner 8y ago
  Did you read the article you linked to? The sub title includes “Overall growth slowed”. And anyway it’s talking about the total immigrant population that’s built up over several decades, and even if that wasn’t an issue, it’s talking about absolute numbers rather than percentages of the population. As a percent of the population, immigration to the USA peaked in the early 20th century, which is when my 4 grandparents arrived. Immigration to the USA, nowadays, is just a small trickle, compared to what it used to be.
  - deogeo 8y ago
    From the chart in my second link, 2016 immigrant population (good proxy for yearly immigration) was 13.5%. The highest it has been since 1900 is 14.7%. How is that a trickle? For comparison, in 2010, China's population was 0.04% immigrant - 300-times less, per capita, than the US! Edit: More international comparison: in 2015, India's population was 0.5% immigrant, Japan's 1.9%, Brazil's 0.9%, South Korea's 2.9%, Mexico's 0.9%, and Turkey's was 3.8%.