6 ms·

Biggest drop in US fertility rate in recent history

22 points by ddlatham 8y ago

makerofspoons 8y ago
This is great news- having fewer children is one of the best ways we can decrease our impact on the environment. Additionally, with the expected declines in quality of life over this century due to climate change it only seems right to have fewer children as they will likely suffer due to the widespread famine and water crises that are expected, especially as the American bread basket turns into a desert.
tenebrisalietum 8y ago
- It's too expensive; health care, child care, education, and housing costs are too high. - Relationships at this point in time in the US are more volatile and disposable than they have ever been. - No one wants to pay child support for years if a relationship doesn't work out.
- deleted 8y ago
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- deleted 8y ago
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jakebasile 8y ago
Maybe more people are realizing that not having children offers an equally valid life experience? I chose not to have children since I'd rather spend what time I have in life concentrating on me and my wife's happiness, not a child that didn't choose to be brought into an uncertain world. The financial benefits are obvious as well, despite the government subsidies on having a child that I miss out on (and pay for).
- omilu 8y ago
  >>>a child that didn't choose to be brought into an uncertain world why so negative? If ever there was a time to have children it's now, and it's only going to get better. Don't plan your life around the highly improbable and unlikely negative events in life. Of all the children born in the history of the world none have it so good as those born today.
  - makerofspoons 8y ago
    But this is the peak- climate change will only shrink our economy and our living standards from here on out. Why bring a child into the world that will never be able to achieve the same quality of life that we enjoy today? A child born today will turn 21 right around the time the IPCC expects the climate crisis to be ramping up, and they are historically conservative: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-repo...
momentmaker 8y ago
"The rent is too damn high."
dragonwriter 8y ago
I suspect the two biggest factors here are distributional aspects of the economy and the opioid epidemic (the latter of which has already been established to be driving the recent drop in life expectancy and skyrocketing suicide rate.) On its own, the drop in fertility isn't directly worrying (if I'm right about it's causes, they are, though), but it does make it a particularly bad time to be making an anti-inflammatory drive; the economic consequences of an aging society are something you should want to mitigate.
gumby 8y ago
I like that this article was normative (didn't veer off into cheering or bemoaning the data). As it happens I consider this good news.
shiftpgdn 8y ago
This is terrible news and shows what I think a lot of folks already knew. Falling birthrates are generally terrible for both the economy and society as a while. An aside: In my social circle I know dozens of older millennial couples who would love to have children however due to massive student loan debts & high rent/mortgage payments the concept is simply unaffordable. The student loan crisis is going to result in a "lost generation."
- convolvatron 8y ago
  at some point, we're going to have to stop assuming that indefinite unstructured economic growth is a given and necessarily good. maybe that time is past, or its far in the future. but shouldn't we start adapting to that eventuality rather than having to wake up suddenly to the reality that we're running out of natural resources to support a growing population and filling our own house with pollution? flattening of population growth or a very slow decline should be exactly what we should be hoping for.
  - makerofspoons 8y ago
    Exactly. Earth Overshoot Day (the day in a given year humans consume more than Earth's capacity to regenerate those resources) keeps getting earlier and earlier each year: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Overshoot_Day https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Overshoot_Day. Our population and economic growth have not meaningfully deviated from the predictions made in the Club of Rome's report Limits to Growth, which means unless we start bending both curves further down soon we are on track for collapse: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07117-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07117-2
    - wbl 8y ago
      The prices of resources disagree with that assessment.
      - makerofspoons 8y ago
        The prices aren't including the cost of environmental destruction- we have allowed that to be an externality.
souprock 8y ago
Well, do your duty. No excuses! My 12th is due at the beginning of summer. If you are a capable software developer or better, you can afford this. It only takes one income of that type. You might need to trim back your expenses, but you can definitely support a dozen kids.
- rjkennedy98 8y ago
  underrated comment
jellicle 8y ago
Completely unrelated: Real wages falling in 2018: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/feeling-poorer-thats-because-real-wages-fell-last-year/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/feeling-poorer-thats-because-re...
rjkennedy98 8y ago
The sad reality is that its the poorest and most irresponsible that are having kids. Its the most educated that aren't. I was recently in India and my driver was my age (under 30) with 3 kids already. He told me his kids' favorite thing is a bucket KFC which costs his entire day's wages. This kind of reversal is happening everywhere. No surprise that while US, Japan, China and Europe having shrinking native populations, Africa is expected to go from 1 to 4 billion people this century.

22 points by ddlatham 8y ago

This is great news- having fewer children is one of the best ways we can decrease our impact on the environment. Additionally, with the expected declines in quality of life over this century due to climate change it only seems right to have fewer children as they will likely suffer due to the widespread famine and water crises that are expected, especially as the American bread basket turns into a desert.

tenebrisalietum 8y ago

- It's too expensive; health care, child care, education, and housing costs are too high. - Relationships at this point in time in the US are more volatile and disposable than they have ever been. - No one wants to pay child support for years if a relationship doesn't work out.

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]

jakebasile 8y ago

Maybe more people are realizing that not having children offers an equally valid life experience? I chose not to have children since I'd rather spend what time I have in life concentrating on me and my wife's happiness, not a child that didn't choose to be brought into an uncertain world. The financial benefits are obvious as well, despite the government subsidies on having a child that I miss out on (and pay for).

omilu 8y ago
>>>a child that didn't choose to be brought into an uncertain world why so negative? If ever there was a time to have children it's now, and it's only going to get better. Don't plan your life around the highly improbable and unlikely negative events in life. Of all the children born in the history of the world none have it so good as those born today.
- makerofspoons 8y ago
  But this is the peak- climate change will only shrink our economy and our living standards from here on out. Why bring a child into the world that will never be able to achieve the same quality of life that we enjoy today? A child born today will turn 21 right around the time the IPCC expects the climate crisis to be ramping up, and they are historically conservative: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-repo...

momentmaker 8y ago

"The rent is too damn high."

dragonwriter 8y ago

I suspect the two biggest factors here are distributional aspects of the economy and the opioid epidemic (the latter of which has already been established to be driving the recent drop in life expectancy and skyrocketing suicide rate.) On its own, the drop in fertility isn't directly worrying (if I'm right about it's causes, they are, though), but it does make it a particularly bad time to be making an anti-inflammatory drive; the economic consequences of an aging society are something you should want to mitigate.

gumby 8y ago

I like that this article was normative (didn't veer off into cheering or bemoaning the data). As it happens I consider this good news.

shiftpgdn 8y ago

This is terrible news and shows what I think a lot of folks already knew. Falling birthrates are generally terrible for both the economy and society as a while. An aside: In my social circle I know dozens of older millennial couples who would love to have children however due to massive student loan debts & high rent/mortgage payments the concept is simply unaffordable. The student loan crisis is going to result in a "lost generation."

convolvatron 8y ago
at some point, we're going to have to stop assuming that indefinite unstructured economic growth is a given and necessarily good. maybe that time is past, or its far in the future. but shouldn't we start adapting to that eventuality rather than having to wake up suddenly to the reality that we're running out of natural resources to support a growing population and filling our own house with pollution? flattening of population growth or a very slow decline should be exactly what we should be hoping for.
- makerofspoons 8y ago
  Exactly. Earth Overshoot Day (the day in a given year humans consume more than Earth's capacity to regenerate those resources) keeps getting earlier and earlier each year: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Overshoot_Day https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Overshoot_Day. Our population and economic growth have not meaningfully deviated from the predictions made in the Club of Rome's report Limits to Growth, which means unless we start bending both curves further down soon we are on track for collapse: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07117-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07117-2
  - wbl 8y ago
    The prices of resources disagree with that assessment.
    - makerofspoons 8y ago
      The prices aren't including the cost of environmental destruction- we have allowed that to be an externality.

souprock 8y ago

Well, do your duty. No excuses! My 12th is due at the beginning of summer. If you are a capable software developer or better, you can afford this. It only takes one income of that type. You might need to trim back your expenses, but you can definitely support a dozen kids.

rjkennedy98 8y ago
underrated comment

jellicle 8y ago

Completely unrelated: Real wages falling in 2018: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/feeling-poorer-thats-because-real-wages-fell-last-year/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/feeling-poorer-thats-because-re...

rjkennedy98 8y ago

The sad reality is that its the poorest and most irresponsible that are having kids. Its the most educated that aren't. I was recently in India and my driver was my age (under 30) with 3 kids already. He told me his kids' favorite thing is a bucket KFC which costs his entire day's wages. This kind of reversal is happening everywhere. No surprise that while US, Japan, China and Europe having shrinking native populations, Africa is expected to go from 1 to 4 billion people this century.