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"But a slew of massive IPOs are being hyped for 2019 – Uber, Palantir, Lyft, Airbnb, and the like – before the Nasdaq craters, thereby shutting the IPO window.

by sjg007 8y ago

"But a slew of massive IPOs are being hyped for 2019 – Uber, Palantir, Lyft, Airbnb, and the like – before the Nasdaq craters, thereby shutting the IPO window. " Why do we expect Nasdaq to crater?

kingnothing 8y ago
We just entered a bear market and the author is probably assuming another great recession.
- vkou 8y ago
  Or we are about to enter a recession, while you are assuming a bear market. The only way we will know is by waiting and seeing.
  - prewett 8y ago
    Well, we did actually enter an official bear market (-20%), or at least really, really close, briefly in late December. And typically the stock markets leads the recession by a year. So, no, bear market and then recession.
OldHand2018 8y ago
> Why do we expect Nasdaq to crater? Oh, you can blame that on all of us olds that have lived through 3-6 business cycles, yet still have functioning memories and attention spans. The last time, we were presented with data proving that it would never crash. We heard stories about why things were different this time. The time before that, we got data and stories. The time before that, we got data and stories. Lest you panic and feel sad, we can also tell you that without fail, things will be going well again a few years later, we will have incredible gains in the markets and workforce, and soon after that we will start hearing of record highs in the markets and records lows in the unemployment rate. Such is life in an advanced society.
- marcosdumay 8y ago
  I still can't think of any time it was announced that global markets would crash and they did actually crash. (I'm at the small limit of that range, with memories of 3 cycles.) Everything I see points to a crash, but I am not sure a crash is even possible when people expect it.
Junk_Collector 8y ago
In my life I have discovered 3 consistent indicators of a market crash. These apply to any given market rather than the market as a whole. 1) People telling you that. "paradigms have shifted", "a new way of doing business," "things are different now," and that fundamentals no longer apply. 2) People telling you that a particular market or investment will only go up. Common sense that this is a safe investment. 3) Average people who don't regularly deal with investments getting in on the game. I.E. if the minimum wage kid from McDonald's is talking about an investment then it is probably a bad sign.
bluGill 8y ago
Markets have ups and downs. Always have, always will. Nasdaq will crash again. Some people believe the next is coming in early 2019. Some of them have been around finance for a long time - but that doesn't necessarily mean they actually have any insight. If you are good with numbers you can take any date in history and make a good solid case that tomorrow things will crash (or crash worse if today was a big crash). Sort of like statistics.

by sjg007 8y ago

kingnothing 8y ago

We just entered a bear market and the author is probably assuming another great recession.

vkou 8y ago
Or we are about to enter a recession, while you are assuming a bear market. The only way we will know is by waiting and seeing.
- prewett 8y ago
  Well, we did actually enter an official bear market (-20%), or at least really, really close, briefly in late December. And typically the stock markets leads the recession by a year. So, no, bear market and then recession.

OldHand2018 8y ago

> Why do we expect Nasdaq to crater? Oh, you can blame that on all of us olds that have lived through 3-6 business cycles, yet still have functioning memories and attention spans. The last time, we were presented with data proving that it would never crash. We heard stories about why things were different this time. The time before that, we got data and stories. The time before that, we got data and stories. Lest you panic and feel sad, we can also tell you that without fail, things will be going well again a few years later, we will have incredible gains in the markets and workforce, and soon after that we will start hearing of record highs in the markets and records lows in the unemployment rate. Such is life in an advanced society.

marcosdumay 8y ago
I still can't think of any time it was announced that global markets would crash and they did actually crash. (I'm at the small limit of that range, with memories of 3 cycles.) Everything I see points to a crash, but I am not sure a crash is even possible when people expect it.

Junk_Collector 8y ago

In my life I have discovered 3 consistent indicators of a market crash. These apply to any given market rather than the market as a whole. 1) People telling you that. "paradigms have shifted", "a new way of doing business," "things are different now," and that fundamentals no longer apply. 2) People telling you that a particular market or investment will only go up. Common sense that this is a safe investment. 3) Average people who don't regularly deal with investments getting in on the game. I.E. if the minimum wage kid from McDonald's is talking about an investment then it is probably a bad sign.

bluGill 8y ago

Markets have ups and downs. Always have, always will. Nasdaq will crash again. Some people believe the next is coming in early 2019. Some of them have been around finance for a long time - but that doesn't necessarily mean they actually have any insight. If you are good with numbers you can take any date in history and make a good solid case that tomorrow things will crash (or crash worse if today was a big crash). Sort of like statistics.