6 ms·

I'd like to jump on this bandwagon. IMO a decline of a company can come in various forms and here we're seeing an empire built on mobile market growth starting

I'd like to jump on this bandwagon. IMO a decline of a company can come in various forms and here we're seeing an empire built on mobile market growth starting to feel the reality of 1% yearly growth in a mature market. Apple is slowly declining (a percent per year) their market share (they are no longer number two - oppo/oneplus has that position now), next year they won't be number three (Huawei). What happens when they go below 10%? Will developer still deliver applications for OSX? Is there a possibility for the same scenario as it was in the Mac vs PC? Reality is that modern Android mobile phones are good enough for most. Unless you're really into the status symbol part of the Apple, they really don't have something special. Plus there is no need to upgrade a phone anymore. I bought my Galaxy S8+ a year after lunch (much cheaper) and would replace it only because of consumerism - to get a new phone. Arguably there is nothing that really warrants an upgrade today. Headphones, while a great move, won't help them in a long run - not enough margins and good competition. The silver lining with Apple is the that they have a growing services business. Too bad Netflix is kicking their ass in video content wars. Siri is also mostly mediocre. Homekit - who knows, what happens if your market share is falling. Reality is that Android won 3 years back. We'll see if Apple can turn around thanks to their endless coffers of cash. It's not over yet, but they need to do something and not just upgrade what they have.

hackersword 8y ago
Android loses when it comes to not having enough clout to enforce a standard on the manufacture and carriers. My last attempt at an android was a Samsung Note3 on Verizon. Pretty much every app had 3 versions - google/android version - samsung version - verizon version Locked bootloader so couldnt' really remove the duplicates. Critical Security update released by a google? Well first has to be approved by Samsung ... that takes a month at least , then approved by Verizon. Realistically if you saw the security update w/in 3 months that was pretty fast. So a zero day exploit ... 3 months waiting for patch. Android really won.
- piyush_soni 8y ago
  Note 3 was like a century ago in 'smartphone years'. A lot has changed since then (Samsung handled the precise duplicate apps problem you're talking about on the most part). Also, even then Google had its own phones (e.g. Nexus) and the only fair comparison to iOS would be stock Android. Now, the new line of Samsung flagships are really smooth, hugely less clutter than before - however, it remains the case that the only fair comparison to iPhones would be with the Google Pixel line.
  - scarface74 8y ago
    Both the Note 3 and the iPhone 5s were introduced in 2013. Guess which one is still getting updates?
    - piyush_soni 8y ago
      Yes, it's given that iPhones have a longer update cycle. My comment was not related to that though.
      - hackersword 8y ago
        >Yes, it's given that iPhones have a longer update cycle. My comment was not related to that though. But that aside from duplicate apps, my 2nd more important point was SECURITY. An iphone user w/ phone from 2013 can still feel confident that his phone is secure , an android user from 2013 is laughably insecure. If you use your phone for any work related sensitive data , and android phone is a huge gamble.
      - scarface74 8y ago
        Actually it does. An iPhone 5s user would not be getting a different user experience than an iPhone 8 user. The Note 3 user would have to buy a new phone to get a better experience.
        piyush_soni 8y ago
        Well, definitely the iPhone 5s users are not getting the same experience as the iPhone 8 user. There are hardware changes that just can't be done via a software update - so that point is moot. My point, again, was that Samsung's out of box experience has changed a lot since then, and that at present, the experience from Note 3 (from old times) shouldn't be a deciding factor of whether "Android won" or iOS (/Apple).
athrun 8y ago
To some extent Android has won on mobile the same way Windows won on the desktop. It's true but kind of irrelevant because this is not what Apple was ever after (otherwise they would have pursued a very different strategy, with 3rd party licensing, etc.). Does it really matter if Apple's market share is declining as long as they keep capturing >80% of all profits from said market? As long as they keep their target demography on board (both on the consumer and developper side) they'll do just fine.
- piyush_soni 8y ago
  >> Does it really matter if Apple's market share is declining as long as they keep capturing >80% of all profits from said market? Steady decline would mean that might cease to be the case soon.
  - threeseed 8y ago
    Not really. The overall mobile market is growing. And it's growing into emerging markets like India and China which are very price sensitive i.e. less margins for OEMs. So quite likely that Apple will see declining market share but growth in revenue and profits.
    - mikenew 8y ago
      The market is declining, at least for mobile phones: http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/12/global-u-s-growth-in-smartphone-growth-starts-to-decline.html http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/12/global-u-s-growth-in-...
      - JumpCrisscross 8y ago
        Your article counts shipments. That’s the most of market metrics. Better: revenues. Even better: profits. This is what Apple historically focussed on, to the detriment of its competition. Betterer: device + platform (*e.g. App Store fees, Apple Music, iCloud) revenues. Even betterer: device + platform profits. This is what Cook is now focusing on, in light of the world’s most profitable consumers buying phones less often but still religiously spending on them.
josteink 8y ago
> The silver lining with Apple is the that they have a growing services business. Too bad Netflix is kicking their ass in video content wars. Siri is also mostly mediocre. As a counter-point I’ve completely quit Netflix because 1. The selection is trash and we never find the movie we’re looking for and 2. I can’t get any movies my kids would want to see dubbed to my (and my kids’) native language. As a result I buy all the films for my kids on iTunes, because 1. It has better selection, and most importantly 2. it has an audio-track my kids will actually understand. Of all the online video streaming-services/stores, I’ve only found iTunes which is good enough on these 2 points.
- Bombthecat 8y ago
  We keep netflix because family and friends use it (they can't afford it) but as soon as netflix tells us : family and /or friends can't use it anymore. We will ditch it..
- tuckfrump 8y ago
  Interesting. We’ve recently found we weren’t doing anything but endless scrolling on Netflix and then going over to actually watch something on Hulu. So we cancelled our subscription.
scarface74 8y ago
- In most industrialized countries, iOS has between 30% and 60% market share - nothing with that type of market share can be seen as a “status symbol” - the Galaxy S8 plus was $785 new in 2017 (https://www.cnet.com/news/heres-how-much-the-galaxy-s8-and-s8-plus-will-cost-you/ https://www.cnet.com/news/heres-how-much-the-galaxy-s8-and-s...). The iPhone about the same price as the iPhone 7 Plus when it was introduced, it wasn’t “much cheaper”. If you bought the iPhone 7 Plus a year after launch, it would have also been cheaper. How long will your S8 be supported with updates by Samsung? The 5s from 2013 is still getting updates. - Netflix’s profit hovers around $300 million (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/netflix-is-growing-even-faster-and-streaming-to-record-profit-totals-2018-04-16 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/netflix-is-growing-even-fa...). Comparing Netflix to Apple is laughable. The Mac makes more Netflix’s entire business. - Android “won” by what measure? Android phone makers are barely profitable besides Samsung and Samsung makes most of its money from selling parts for other phones. It came out in the Oracle lawsuit that even Google only made $31 billion from Android over the first 8 years total - half of what Apple is projected to make this quarter. Androids market share is meaningless if it doesn’t lead to profits and is seen to be made up of poor people who don’t spend money.
- a11595 8y ago
  1) it is seen as a status symbol, almost everywhere outside of western Europe and US/Canada. I have been to about 80 countries. The way it works is everyone who is anyone always uses the latest iphone, thought they cannot afford a toilet seat. And everyone wants to think they're someone. 2) I can put any of the hundreds of versions of Android on the S8, and it'll be supported for over a decade. Hell, I don't even have google's android version on my pixel2. How's that 5s running on the latest updates? Does the answer button draw itself in time to pick up the phone? My Galaxy S (original) still runs fine, with the latest security updates. 2) "Services Business" - he is not comparing the entire apple to the entire netflix. He is talking about apple's failed venture into streaming shows and movies. You are being purposely dense here, not sure why. By your logic Windows Phone is a success because MS makes a lot of money from Azure. 3) Android won by the measure of what wins. Almost all phones are Android. Things that don't lead to profits are meaningless in terms of who won? To us, consumers, who most all use Android, it has won. Who cares what money the producers make? Now I'll leave this to your for a though exercise. Take all the slim profits from all the Android phones, tablets, cash register terminals, cameras, light switches, conference booking pads on the walls, etc. Add all those, for every device running Android. It won by your fake measure too.

hackersword 8y ago

Android loses when it comes to not having enough clout to enforce a standard on the manufacture and carriers. My last attempt at an android was a Samsung Note3 on Verizon. Pretty much every app had 3 versions - google/android version - samsung version - verizon version Locked bootloader so couldnt' really remove the duplicates. Critical Security update released by a google? Well first has to be approved by Samsung ... that takes a month at least , then approved by Verizon. Realistically if you saw the security update w/in 3 months that was pretty fast. So a zero day exploit ... 3 months waiting for patch. Android really won.

piyush_soni 8y ago
Note 3 was like a century ago in 'smartphone years'. A lot has changed since then (Samsung handled the precise duplicate apps problem you're talking about on the most part). Also, even then Google had its own phones (e.g. Nexus) and the only fair comparison to iOS would be stock Android. Now, the new line of Samsung flagships are really smooth, hugely less clutter than before - however, it remains the case that the only fair comparison to iPhones would be with the Google Pixel line.
- scarface74 8y ago
  Both the Note 3 and the iPhone 5s were introduced in 2013. Guess which one is still getting updates?
  - piyush_soni 8y ago
    Yes, it's given that iPhones have a longer update cycle. My comment was not related to that though.
    - hackersword 8y ago
      >Yes, it's given that iPhones have a longer update cycle. My comment was not related to that though. But that aside from duplicate apps, my 2nd more important point was SECURITY. An iphone user w/ phone from 2013 can still feel confident that his phone is secure , an android user from 2013 is laughably insecure. If you use your phone for any work related sensitive data , and android phone is a huge gamble.
    - scarface74 8y ago
      Actually it does. An iPhone 5s user would not be getting a different user experience than an iPhone 8 user. The Note 3 user would have to buy a new phone to get a better experience.
      - piyush_soni 8y ago
        Well, definitely the iPhone 5s users are not getting the same experience as the iPhone 8 user. There are hardware changes that just can't be done via a software update - so that point is moot. My point, again, was that Samsung's out of box experience has changed a lot since then, and that at present, the experience from Note 3 (from old times) shouldn't be a deciding factor of whether "Android won" or iOS (/Apple).

athrun 8y ago

To some extent Android has won on mobile the same way Windows won on the desktop. It's true but kind of irrelevant because this is not what Apple was ever after (otherwise they would have pursued a very different strategy, with 3rd party licensing, etc.). Does it really matter if Apple's market share is declining as long as they keep capturing >80% of all profits from said market? As long as they keep their target demography on board (both on the consumer and developper side) they'll do just fine.

piyush_soni 8y ago
>> Does it really matter if Apple's market share is declining as long as they keep capturing >80% of all profits from said market? Steady decline would mean that might cease to be the case soon.
- threeseed 8y ago
  Not really. The overall mobile market is growing. And it's growing into emerging markets like India and China which are very price sensitive i.e. less margins for OEMs. So quite likely that Apple will see declining market share but growth in revenue and profits.
  - mikenew 8y ago
    The market is declining, at least for mobile phones: http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/12/global-u-s-growth-in-smartphone-growth-starts-to-decline.html http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/12/global-u-s-growth-in-...
    - JumpCrisscross 8y ago
      Your article counts shipments. That’s the most of market metrics. Better: revenues. Even better: profits. This is what Apple historically focussed on, to the detriment of its competition. Betterer: device + platform (*e.g. App Store fees, Apple Music, iCloud) revenues. Even betterer: device + platform profits. This is what Cook is now focusing on, in light of the world’s most profitable consumers buying phones less often but still religiously spending on them.

josteink 8y ago

> The silver lining with Apple is the that they have a growing services business. Too bad Netflix is kicking their ass in video content wars. Siri is also mostly mediocre. As a counter-point I’ve completely quit Netflix because 1. The selection is trash and we never find the movie we’re looking for and 2. I can’t get any movies my kids would want to see dubbed to my (and my kids’) native language. As a result I buy all the films for my kids on iTunes, because 1. It has better selection, and most importantly 2. it has an audio-track my kids will actually understand. Of all the online video streaming-services/stores, I’ve only found iTunes which is good enough on these 2 points.

Bombthecat 8y ago
We keep netflix because family and friends use it (they can't afford it) but as soon as netflix tells us : family and /or friends can't use it anymore. We will ditch it..
tuckfrump 8y ago
Interesting. We’ve recently found we weren’t doing anything but endless scrolling on Netflix and then going over to actually watch something on Hulu. So we cancelled our subscription.

scarface74 8y ago

- In most industrialized countries, iOS has between 30% and 60% market share - nothing with that type of market share can be seen as a “status symbol” - the Galaxy S8 plus was $785 new in 2017 (https://www.cnet.com/news/heres-how-much-the-galaxy-s8-and-s8-plus-will-cost-you/ https://www.cnet.com/news/heres-how-much-the-galaxy-s8-and-s...). The iPhone about the same price as the iPhone 7 Plus when it was introduced, it wasn’t “much cheaper”. If you bought the iPhone 7 Plus a year after launch, it would have also been cheaper. How long will your S8 be supported with updates by Samsung? The 5s from 2013 is still getting updates. - Netflix’s profit hovers around $300 million (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/netflix-is-growing-even-faster-and-streaming-to-record-profit-totals-2018-04-16 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/netflix-is-growing-even-fa...). Comparing Netflix to Apple is laughable. The Mac makes more Netflix’s entire business. - Android “won” by what measure? Android phone makers are barely profitable besides Samsung and Samsung makes most of its money from selling parts for other phones. It came out in the Oracle lawsuit that even Google only made $31 billion from Android over the first 8 years total - half of what Apple is projected to make this quarter. Androids market share is meaningless if it doesn’t lead to profits and is seen to be made up of poor people who don’t spend money.

a11595 8y ago
1) it is seen as a status symbol, almost everywhere outside of western Europe and US/Canada. I have been to about 80 countries. The way it works is everyone who is anyone always uses the latest iphone, thought they cannot afford a toilet seat. And everyone wants to think they're someone. 2) I can put any of the hundreds of versions of Android on the S8, and it'll be supported for over a decade. Hell, I don't even have google's android version on my pixel2. How's that 5s running on the latest updates? Does the answer button draw itself in time to pick up the phone? My Galaxy S (original) still runs fine, with the latest security updates. 2) "Services Business" - he is not comparing the entire apple to the entire netflix. He is talking about apple's failed venture into streaming shows and movies. You are being purposely dense here, not sure why. By your logic Windows Phone is a success because MS makes a lot of money from Azure. 3) Android won by the measure of what wins. Almost all phones are Android. Things that don't lead to profits are meaningless in terms of who won? To us, consumers, who most all use Android, it has won. Who cares what money the producers make? Now I'll leave this to your for a though exercise. Take all the slim profits from all the Android phones, tablets, cash register terminals, cameras, light switches, conference booking pads on the walls, etc. Add all those, for every device running Android. It won by your fake measure too.