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> Every bank based in London for that purpose now has to open a regulated branch in an EU member. How many of them don't have one yet? Also, every bank based

> Every bank based in London for that purpose now has to open a regulated branch in an EU member. How many of them don't have one yet? Also, every bank based in the EU will have to open a regulated branch in UK in order to operate in this large market. > The number of people that supported leave and lacked understanding of all the ties of the businesses that operate in the UK but sell in the EU was amazing. Perhaps they're just not trying to see only the drawbacks and ignore successful non-members in Europe like Switzerland and Norway.

arethuza 8y ago
Norway and Switzerland have trade deals in place with the EU - which we don't yet, and by all accounts are unlikely to have in place before we exit.
SmellyGeekBoy 8y ago
The UK is the 5th biggest economy in the world. Switzerland is 20th and Norway 30th. The UK has traditionally punched well above its weight economically, it will be interesting to see if we become just another Switzerland or Norway after Brexit rather than the world economic power that we are today. Being the banking capital of the EU is a huge contributing factor to that position, btw.
- lazyjones 8y ago
  > The UK has traditionally punched well above its weight economically How is its trade balance doing lately? Not so good. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade > Being the banking capital of the EU is a huge contributing factor to that position, btw. I'm not sure what economic indicators you are talking about. Certainly none that reflects the actual well-being of the population.
  - freedomben 8y ago
    I generally support Brexit, but I'm guessing for reasons much different than yours (I always favor decentralization as a way of increasing the power of the average citizen relative to their government). Maybe we agree? The trade balance tho is not typically a good indicator of economic health, at least not how it's typically pitched: https://mises.org/wire/nonproblem-trade-deficit https://mises.org/wire/nonproblem-trade-deficit
    - Symbiote 8y ago
      The average British citizen will probably have less influence after Brexit, since the EU electoral system is actually reasonable. We'll be left with a first-past-the-post MP, and an unelected (sometimes hereditary!) House of Lords.
    - pjc50 8y ago
      The UK is one of Europe's most centralized states, and Brexit will make it more so - see Scottish government lawsuits.
- namdnay 8y ago
  + Norway and Switzerland both have partly artificial economies, buoyed by Oil for the former and dirty money for the latter.
  - siquick 8y ago
    Britain has both oil in Scotland, and dirty money flowing through London
    - namdnay 8y ago
      Indeed, but not enough unfortunately
  - CaptainZapp 8y ago
    Just as an aside : You're probably much better off to launder your money in London (for example via a shell company owning massively valuable real estate[1]) than in Switzerland, nowadays. Traditionally money laundring was always much less of a problem in Switzerland than supporting tax evasion. With the automatic exchange of information[2] this will pretty much be a non issue in the future. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Hyde_Park https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Hyde_Park [2] https://www.efd.admin.ch/efd/en/home/themen/wirtschaft--waehrung--finanzplatz/finanzmarktpolitik/automatic-exchange-of-information--aeoi-.html https://www.efd.admin.ch/efd/en/home/themen/wirtschaft--waeh...
- Latteland 8y ago
  Here's a list of the top 10 est 2019 world economies. UK will go from #5 down to 7 for sure. If they actually suffer much trouble they'll fall further. #5 UK 2.982T, France 2.935T, India 2.934T. I forgot Brazil was so high, #9 at 2.095. https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/the-largest-economies-in-the-world https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/the-largest-economies-i...
  - lazyjones 8y ago
    > UK will go from #5 down to 7 for sure. Mostly because of India's growth. So what? It's GDP we're talking about, a largely meaningless indicator nowadays. UK is #27 in GDP (PPP) per capita rankings. India is #122. Is it better to live in an economy with large GDP or better purchasing power? Is India somehow better off than the UK once it overtakes it by GDP due to population growth?
    - adventured 8y ago
      PPP GDP is nearly worthless as a measure. It's a fraudulent number cooked up subjectively at a distance with very little on the ground information. Nobody actually goes country to country and surveys the details to calculate the PPP figures, it's created half out of thin air. That's how you get Saudi Arabia at $55k PPP GDP per capita, ranking above Sweden, Germany, Australia, Denmark, Netherlands, Canada, Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, UK - you know, just most of the nicest countries on earth. Back in reality, their GDP per capita is actually $21,000 and ranks them near Greece and below Portugal. It's also how you get Puerto Rico ranking above Czech, Portugal, Estonia, Israel and nearly outranking Italy, New Zealand, South Korea and Spain. What a joke. Nobody actually went top to bottom through Puerto Rico's situation on the ground before calculating that. Half of Russia lives very nearly in third world poverty, with incomes bordering on third world levels. By PPP GDP per capita they get ranked next to Portugal instead, which says absolutely nothing about the actual conditions on the ground for the bottom 1/3 or 1/2 of Russia. Iraq gets ranked above China, Brazil and Colombia per capita PPP GDP. And just below Mexico and Argentina. Again, a joke. You get Equatorial Guinea ranking on PPP per capita above Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia and Portugal; just a bit below New Zealand, Spain and Italy. In reality it's a country with a GDP per capita of just $14,000 and a third world life expectancy of ~58 years. Another farcical PPP adjustment invented out of thin air with zero considerations for reality on the ground.
- bayesian_horse 8y ago
  Switzerland and Norway both accept large parts of EU legislation and regulations without having a say. They pay into EU programs, without having a say. They accept free movement of workers, without having a say... UK is currently not willing to do any of the sort. So no, Britain will not get the benefits Norway or Switzerland enjoy...
lhopki01 8y ago
Norway is a member of the single market via the EEA and Switzerland essentially is because of it's bilateral treaties. The UK is proposing to leave the single market (in the best case)
- lazyjones 8y ago
  > The UK is proposing to leave the single market (in the best case) No, May wants to stay in the single market, the EU is refusing that option. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/single-market-brexit-eu-trade-deals-what-is-uk-leave-european-union-why-a8557176.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/single-market... This stubbornness on behalf of the EU will damage both sides economically and thus be corrected at some point when the current EU administration is replaced by a more reasonable one.
  - namdnay 8y ago
    > May wants to stay in the single market, the EU is refusing that option If you can't have your cake and eat it too, it's not the baker's fault...
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
    - CaptainZapp 8y ago
      Well, you can certainly have your cake and eat it. The problem is that the baker expects payment and it seems that the UK is just not willing to cough up for the cake.
  - pjc50 8y ago
    Single market access is conditional on accepting freedom of movement, it's not a gratuitous refusal.
  - jcranmer 8y ago
    The Brexit movement has generally rejected calls for a Norwegian or Swiss "you're in the single market but you have to follow most of the EU rules without having a say in their governance." (Not that the Swiss model in particular was on offer, because the EU is pretty unhappy with the amount of specialness it generates).
pjc50 8y ago
Ironically both Switzerland and Norway are part of Schengen. If we were leaving to Norway's status everything would be fine, but we're not.
boudin 8y ago
Both Switzerland and Norway are part of single market with free movement of EU citizen. If Brexit happens with a no-deal or no single market access, it's unlikely that it can be compared with Switzerland and Norway situation.
- deleted 8y ago
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deleted 8y ago
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matthewmacleod 8y ago
Perhaps they're just not trying to see only the drawbacks and ignore successful non-members in Europe like Switzerland and Norway. That's a bit of a misrepresentation, because those "successful non-members" are members of the single market, which is currently something that the UK is actively trying to leave. Don't underestimate what's happening here – it would have been possible to execute Brexit in a relatively controlled manner, but that wasn't done, and now the UK is rapidly heading towards a pretty unpleasant outcome.
- muro 8y ago
  Switzerland is part of Schengen (which UK is not), yet not a member of the single market - they are not in the EU for customs purposes, have many restrictions on imports (e.g. food).
  - matthewmacleod 8y ago
    Okay, you're right – it's more complex than I implied. Switzerland is a single market participant through bilateral treaties, like Norway and Iceland are through EEA. While they aren't "members" of the single market, I think we'd usually consider those four EFTA countries plus the 28 EU states to make up the "single market", though I accept there is no clear terminology in some ways! Still though, such a relationship is equally not the plan of the current UK government, and customs union membership is not a prerequisite for single market 'membership' as such.
- lazyjones 8y ago
  > That's a bit of a misrepresentation, because those "successful non-members" are members of the single market, which is currently something that the UK is actively trying to leave. The UK is trying to leave the EU and stay in the single market. The EU is trying to deny the UK access to the single market.
  - pjc50 8y ago
    The UK has the option of staying in the single market .. if it accepts freedom of movement. This is the "Norway" option everyone keeps talking about.
gumby 8y ago
> Perhaps they're just not trying to see only the drawbacks and ignore successful non-members in Europe like Switzerland and Norway. Norway and Switzerland are subject to almost all the EU regulations but unlike the UK have no say, much less veto, in the making or enforcement of those rules. Is that situation really what Brexiteers wanted?
- lazyjones 8y ago
  These rules are subject to local legislation. Switzerland and Norway can renegotiate any time they want and occasionally do so. https://www.dw.com/en/switzerland-ignores-eu-deadline-for-treaty/a-46639844 https://www.dw.com/en/switzerland-ignores-eu-deadline-for-tr... This is a much stronger position to be in and the UK is a much larger "adversary" in tough negotiations (and has always been even within the EU).
  - Xylakant 8y ago
    Switzerland is trying to renegotiate the full freedom of movement that they have accepted previously and while this negotiation stalls, the old rules stay in place. There’s no reason the UK cannot negotiate their levels of access to the EU market like the Swiss or the Norwegians do, but the EU won’t grant full access without full freedom of movement. In fact, all of this is what’s happening now. How strong the UK negotiation position is can currently be observed.
    - lazyjones 8y ago
      > How strong the UK negotiation position is can currently be observed. There's a lot of scaremongering going around. The "no deal" scenario is terrifying for the EU as well, especially if the Britons don't pay the 39b and shut down their market. Unfortunately, the current EU administration has a track record of self-inflicted wounds (e.g. Russia sanctions), so this is the most likely scenario now.
      - JAlexoid 8y ago
        EU isn't a single country, you know... And there are no countries that will collapse without those 39bn. There's also the fun fact - UK will not get it's rebates.

arethuza 8y ago

Norway and Switzerland have trade deals in place with the EU - which we don't yet, and by all accounts are unlikely to have in place before we exit.

SmellyGeekBoy 8y ago

The UK is the 5th biggest economy in the world. Switzerland is 20th and Norway 30th. The UK has traditionally punched well above its weight economically, it will be interesting to see if we become just another Switzerland or Norway after Brexit rather than the world economic power that we are today. Being the banking capital of the EU is a huge contributing factor to that position, btw.

lazyjones 8y ago
> The UK has traditionally punched well above its weight economically How is its trade balance doing lately? Not so good. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade > Being the banking capital of the EU is a huge contributing factor to that position, btw. I'm not sure what economic indicators you are talking about. Certainly none that reflects the actual well-being of the population.
- freedomben 8y ago
  I generally support Brexit, but I'm guessing for reasons much different than yours (I always favor decentralization as a way of increasing the power of the average citizen relative to their government). Maybe we agree? The trade balance tho is not typically a good indicator of economic health, at least not how it's typically pitched: https://mises.org/wire/nonproblem-trade-deficit https://mises.org/wire/nonproblem-trade-deficit
  - Symbiote 8y ago
    The average British citizen will probably have less influence after Brexit, since the EU electoral system is actually reasonable. We'll be left with a first-past-the-post MP, and an unelected (sometimes hereditary!) House of Lords.
  - pjc50 8y ago
    The UK is one of Europe's most centralized states, and Brexit will make it more so - see Scottish government lawsuits.
namdnay 8y ago
+ Norway and Switzerland both have partly artificial economies, buoyed by Oil for the former and dirty money for the latter.
- siquick 8y ago
  Britain has both oil in Scotland, and dirty money flowing through London
  - namdnay 8y ago
    Indeed, but not enough unfortunately
- CaptainZapp 8y ago
  Just as an aside : You're probably much better off to launder your money in London (for example via a shell company owning massively valuable real estate[1]) than in Switzerland, nowadays. Traditionally money laundring was always much less of a problem in Switzerland than supporting tax evasion. With the automatic exchange of information[2] this will pretty much be a non issue in the future. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Hyde_Park https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Hyde_Park [2] https://www.efd.admin.ch/efd/en/home/themen/wirtschaft--waehrung--finanzplatz/finanzmarktpolitik/automatic-exchange-of-information--aeoi-.html https://www.efd.admin.ch/efd/en/home/themen/wirtschaft--waeh...
Latteland 8y ago
Here's a list of the top 10 est 2019 world economies. UK will go from #5 down to 7 for sure. If they actually suffer much trouble they'll fall further. #5 UK 2.982T, France 2.935T, India 2.934T. I forgot Brazil was so high, #9 at 2.095. https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/the-largest-economies-in-the-world https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/the-largest-economies-i...
- lazyjones 8y ago
  > UK will go from #5 down to 7 for sure. Mostly because of India's growth. So what? It's GDP we're talking about, a largely meaningless indicator nowadays. UK is #27 in GDP (PPP) per capita rankings. India is #122. Is it better to live in an economy with large GDP or better purchasing power? Is India somehow better off than the UK once it overtakes it by GDP due to population growth?
  - adventured 8y ago
    PPP GDP is nearly worthless as a measure. It's a fraudulent number cooked up subjectively at a distance with very little on the ground information. Nobody actually goes country to country and surveys the details to calculate the PPP figures, it's created half out of thin air. That's how you get Saudi Arabia at $55k PPP GDP per capita, ranking above Sweden, Germany, Australia, Denmark, Netherlands, Canada, Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, UK - you know, just most of the nicest countries on earth. Back in reality, their GDP per capita is actually $21,000 and ranks them near Greece and below Portugal. It's also how you get Puerto Rico ranking above Czech, Portugal, Estonia, Israel and nearly outranking Italy, New Zealand, South Korea and Spain. What a joke. Nobody actually went top to bottom through Puerto Rico's situation on the ground before calculating that. Half of Russia lives very nearly in third world poverty, with incomes bordering on third world levels. By PPP GDP per capita they get ranked next to Portugal instead, which says absolutely nothing about the actual conditions on the ground for the bottom 1/3 or 1/2 of Russia. Iraq gets ranked above China, Brazil and Colombia per capita PPP GDP. And just below Mexico and Argentina. Again, a joke. You get Equatorial Guinea ranking on PPP per capita above Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia and Portugal; just a bit below New Zealand, Spain and Italy. In reality it's a country with a GDP per capita of just $14,000 and a third world life expectancy of ~58 years. Another farcical PPP adjustment invented out of thin air with zero considerations for reality on the ground.
bayesian_horse 8y ago
Switzerland and Norway both accept large parts of EU legislation and regulations without having a say. They pay into EU programs, without having a say. They accept free movement of workers, without having a say... UK is currently not willing to do any of the sort. So no, Britain will not get the benefits Norway or Switzerland enjoy...

lhopki01 8y ago

Norway is a member of the single market via the EEA and Switzerland essentially is because of it's bilateral treaties. The UK is proposing to leave the single market (in the best case)

lazyjones 8y ago
> The UK is proposing to leave the single market (in the best case) No, May wants to stay in the single market, the EU is refusing that option. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/single-market-brexit-eu-trade-deals-what-is-uk-leave-european-union-why-a8557176.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/single-market... This stubbornness on behalf of the EU will damage both sides economically and thus be corrected at some point when the current EU administration is replaced by a more reasonable one.
- namdnay 8y ago
  > May wants to stay in the single market, the EU is refusing that option If you can't have your cake and eat it too, it's not the baker's fault...
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - CaptainZapp 8y ago
    Well, you can certainly have your cake and eat it. The problem is that the baker expects payment and it seems that the UK is just not willing to cough up for the cake.
- pjc50 8y ago
  Single market access is conditional on accepting freedom of movement, it's not a gratuitous refusal.
- jcranmer 8y ago
  The Brexit movement has generally rejected calls for a Norwegian or Swiss "you're in the single market but you have to follow most of the EU rules without having a say in their governance." (Not that the Swiss model in particular was on offer, because the EU is pretty unhappy with the amount of specialness it generates).

pjc50 8y ago

Ironically both Switzerland and Norway are part of Schengen. If we were leaving to Norway's status everything would be fine, but we're not.

boudin 8y ago

Both Switzerland and Norway are part of single market with free movement of EU citizen. If Brexit happens with a no-deal or no single market access, it's unlikely that it can be compared with Switzerland and Norway situation.

deleted 8y ago
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deleted 8y ago

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matthewmacleod 8y ago

Perhaps they're just not trying to see only the drawbacks and ignore successful non-members in Europe like Switzerland and Norway. That's a bit of a misrepresentation, because those "successful non-members" are members of the single market, which is currently something that the UK is actively trying to leave. Don't underestimate what's happening here – it would have been possible to execute Brexit in a relatively controlled manner, but that wasn't done, and now the UK is rapidly heading towards a pretty unpleasant outcome.

muro 8y ago
Switzerland is part of Schengen (which UK is not), yet not a member of the single market - they are not in the EU for customs purposes, have many restrictions on imports (e.g. food).
- matthewmacleod 8y ago
  Okay, you're right – it's more complex than I implied. Switzerland is a single market participant through bilateral treaties, like Norway and Iceland are through EEA. While they aren't "members" of the single market, I think we'd usually consider those four EFTA countries plus the 28 EU states to make up the "single market", though I accept there is no clear terminology in some ways! Still though, such a relationship is equally not the plan of the current UK government, and customs union membership is not a prerequisite for single market 'membership' as such.
lazyjones 8y ago
> That's a bit of a misrepresentation, because those "successful non-members" are members of the single market, which is currently something that the UK is actively trying to leave. The UK is trying to leave the EU and stay in the single market. The EU is trying to deny the UK access to the single market.
- pjc50 8y ago
  The UK has the option of staying in the single market .. if it accepts freedom of movement. This is the "Norway" option everyone keeps talking about.

gumby 8y ago

> Perhaps they're just not trying to see only the drawbacks and ignore successful non-members in Europe like Switzerland and Norway. Norway and Switzerland are subject to almost all the EU regulations but unlike the UK have no say, much less veto, in the making or enforcement of those rules. Is that situation really what Brexiteers wanted?

lazyjones 8y ago
These rules are subject to local legislation. Switzerland and Norway can renegotiate any time they want and occasionally do so. https://www.dw.com/en/switzerland-ignores-eu-deadline-for-treaty/a-46639844 https://www.dw.com/en/switzerland-ignores-eu-deadline-for-tr... This is a much stronger position to be in and the UK is a much larger "adversary" in tough negotiations (and has always been even within the EU).
- Xylakant 8y ago
  Switzerland is trying to renegotiate the full freedom of movement that they have accepted previously and while this negotiation stalls, the old rules stay in place. There’s no reason the UK cannot negotiate their levels of access to the EU market like the Swiss or the Norwegians do, but the EU won’t grant full access without full freedom of movement. In fact, all of this is what’s happening now. How strong the UK negotiation position is can currently be observed.
  - lazyjones 8y ago
    > How strong the UK negotiation position is can currently be observed. There's a lot of scaremongering going around. The "no deal" scenario is terrifying for the EU as well, especially if the Britons don't pay the 39b and shut down their market. Unfortunately, the current EU administration has a track record of self-inflicted wounds (e.g. Russia sanctions), so this is the most likely scenario now.
    - JAlexoid 8y ago
      EU isn't a single country, you know... And there are no countries that will collapse without those 39bn. There's also the fun fact - UK will not get it's rebates.