5 ms·

Masayoshi Son wants Arm’s blueprints to power all tech

91 points by jkuria 8y ago

walterbell 8y ago
In addition to competition from RISC-V, open-source MIPS and patents are an Arm competitor in networking and ML, https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/hardware/mips-joins-risc-v-second-open-source-alternative-arm https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/hardware/mips-joins-risc... > Having spent years in the open source technology movement, I can attest to the hunger for community-driven solutions," Art Swift, president of Wave’s MIPS IP business, said in a statement. "However, until now, there has been a lack of open source access to true industry-standard, patent-protected, and silicon-proven RISC architectures."
ordinaryradical 8y ago
Softbank's investment theses are interesting. They represent a kind of vision I haven't found an equivalent for in the western VC culture. But this article feels a little soft... > Yet Mr Muller’s “drawings” are anything but simple. They are computer code which give Arm’s customers a blueprint for the construction of microprocessors, information-processing machines so complex that firms are happy for Arm to shoulder the burden of their fundamental design. Those clients—consumer-hardware giants such as Apple A question for anyone who knows--my impression of the Apple-Arm relationship was that Apple primarily needed a new ISA to do an end-run around Intel's x86 stranglehold and found an avenue via ARM? For the recent chips, I thought large majority of the silicon was custom designed in-house, with Arm's own designs serving as a loose blueprint. Is Arm really delivering value here to other firms? And is it sustainable or meaningful in the long-term?
- deepnotderp 8y ago
  ARM controls the isa, that is all. Apple CPU cores are very custom
- ip26 8y ago
  Apple could have made their own ISA, or used one of any number of other ISAs. ARM provides a couple things. First, they offer a progression. You can start out with a drop-in ARM core, and as you progress you can start customizing, and then eventually you can make your own design. (Indeed, the original iPhone CPU contained an off-the-shelf ARM11 core, and the Apple A4 was an ARM-designed Cortex-A8 with some speed tweaks by Apple) Second, obviously it's a proven starting place, you know it works well. It has been debugged, and verification is established. ARM might even license out the formal verification testing, which is a big chunk of work to develop. Designing your own ISA just takes time. Third, there's an established software base and other developers writing for ARM already. BSD already ran on ARM when Apple started making their own core, and gcc/clang have supported ARM targets for years. It's a little bit like licensing USB. Yeah, you could design your own connector with new cables and protocols and electricals. Maybe it would even be better. Or maybe the dominance of USB, proven design, extensive software stack, and so on is worth something. As for providing value, as with USB, ARM will continue to develop the ISA, guide the way for the many other smaller companies, and through their inherent leadership as the sole owners of the ISA, generally keep things cohesive & interoperable.
  - cpeterso 8y ago
    At Apple's scale, is there much financial advantage to switching from ARM to RISC V for iOS devices? Does Apple have to pay ARM any per-device royalties?
    - ip26 8y ago
      That's all closely guarded, I'm not even sure if that's public knowledge or not. Worth noting, however, Apple's quarterly revenue is like $50B while ARM's is $500M- split across many customers. Apple certainly has shown a proclivity for such bravado, but I think there's no way it wouldn't be a huge setback to the business & the competitiveness of their chips, and breaking free of Intel ASAP is probably worth a lot more than any royalties they pay ARM.
      - ksec 8y ago
- macintux 8y ago
  Worth noting that Apple has a long history with ARM dating back to the Newton, plus the established low-power advantages it holds. Considering that Steve went to Intel to discuss the possibilities of them making the iPhone processor, I don’t think independence from Intel was a primary motivator. Sustainable? I doubt anyone knows. But certainly ARM currently offers a significant value proposition.
  - deepnotderp 8y ago
    ARM honestly has little low power advantage intrinsically speaking as an isa, it's just that most low power cpus tend to be ARM and most arm cpus tend to be low power, same with x86 but for high power and performance.
    - vlovich123 8y ago
      I have yet to see an x86 ISA that can scale down to the power requirements of ARM. So while the performance/watt might be comparable it seems like getting an x86 design to run at such a low wattage is difficult - otherwise Android x86 would have taken off more successfully.
  - indemnity 8y ago
    ARM was started as a joint venture between Apple & Acorn, so yes, there is some history.
phkahler 8y ago
They're already thinking of relisting ARM. I can't help but thinking risc V is invalidating their plans for Arm and they want out. Some big customers are designing their own CPUs now and that should be showing up in Arms sales projections.
- herogreen 8y ago
  Mind to share a source ?
  - phkahler 8y ago
    >> Mind to share a source ? A source for which statement? I made a few. If you mean that they are thinking of relisting ARM, the linked article that this comment thread is under says that softbank is considering relisting ARM (already!). If you want a source for my statement that big customers are designing their own CPUs then I could offer that Samsung is a current ARM customer that is known to be developing RISC-V cores: https://www.electronicsweekly.com/blogs/mannerisms/dilemmas/samsung-defection-arm-risc-v-2016-11/ https://www.electronicsweekly.com/blogs/mannerisms/dilemmas/... https://www.androidauthority.com/samsung-risc-v-cpu-core-731670/ https://www.androidauthority.com/samsung-risc-v-cpu-core-731... I thought there were more direct sources back when the news came out about Samsung but don't see them now. Western Digital has indicated many times that they will be transitioning 1 Billion cores per year to RISC-V: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z48V8yMOFxA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z48V8yMOFxA It seems hard to find proof of what WD will be replacing with RISC-V but it seems extremely likely that its ARM, and here is one link that indicates ARM in a WD product: https://www.hardwaresecrets.com/wd-my-cloud-3-tb-network-hdd-review/3/ https://www.hardwaresecrets.com/wd-my-cloud-3-tb-network-hdd... We also know NVIDIA is replacing their Falcon GPU controller with a home-grown RISC-V core, but that will not displace ARM. They did indicate a desire for "rich OS" support, which they currently do with ARM. Here's their old presentation: https://riscv.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Tue1100_Nvidia_RISCV_Story_V2.pdf https://riscv.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Tue1100_Nvidia_... Looking around, it's easy to find companies supporting risc-v but hard to find direct statements indicating its use to replace ARM. Anyway, given all the activity I think ARM sales representatives have a good view of their future prospects. They undoubtedly have some preliminary numbers on future ARM displacement by risc-v. If I were on an investors conference call with them (which they don't have because they're owned by softbank now?) I would ask directly about this very thing.
euske 8y ago
FYI: He believes that the singularity is coming. Apparently he has had this dream since his childhood. In another Japanese interview, he repeatedly said that hyper-intelligence will make people happy. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/20/business/dealbook/masayoshi-son-softbank-artificial-intelligence.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/20/business/dealbook/masayos...
- mepian 8y ago
  I wonder what he thinks about the end of Moore's law.
- agumonkey 8y ago
  I have near zero faith in singularity benefits (if it ever happens). The more people have the less they see.
  - colordrops 8y ago
    Perhaps I have the wrong idea of what the "singularity" even is, but I suspect there wouldn't even be recognizable humans afterward.
    - agumonkey 8y ago
      singularity is mostly an exponential growth in capabilities, closed loop cascade from all technologies; of course people think they'll be able to augment humans to infinity but it's a large ignorance about humans, limits, balance and wisdom. It's just tech pornography, unlimited blah, people will try and they will realize it's mostly a useless thrill.
- hkmurakami 8y ago
  It is a national dream to make Doraemon a reality ;)
jcoffland 8y ago
Did you know that the ARM instruction set was designed by transgender woman Sophie Wilson? Interesting story. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sophie_Wilson https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sophie_Wilson

91 points by jkuria 8y ago

In addition to competition from RISC-V, open-source MIPS and patents are an Arm competitor in networking and ML, https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/hardware/mips-joins-risc-v-second-open-source-alternative-arm https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/hardware/mips-joins-risc... > Having spent years in the open source technology movement, I can attest to the hunger for community-driven solutions," Art Swift, president of Wave’s MIPS IP business, said in a statement. "However, until now, there has been a lack of open source access to true industry-standard, patent-protected, and silicon-proven RISC architectures."

ordinaryradical 8y ago

Softbank's investment theses are interesting. They represent a kind of vision I haven't found an equivalent for in the western VC culture. But this article feels a little soft... > Yet Mr Muller’s “drawings” are anything but simple. They are computer code which give Arm’s customers a blueprint for the construction of microprocessors, information-processing machines so complex that firms are happy for Arm to shoulder the burden of their fundamental design. Those clients—consumer-hardware giants such as Apple A question for anyone who knows--my impression of the Apple-Arm relationship was that Apple primarily needed a new ISA to do an end-run around Intel's x86 stranglehold and found an avenue via ARM? For the recent chips, I thought large majority of the silicon was custom designed in-house, with Arm's own designs serving as a loose blueprint. Is Arm really delivering value here to other firms? And is it sustainable or meaningful in the long-term?

deepnotderp 8y ago
ARM controls the isa, that is all. Apple CPU cores are very custom
ip26 8y ago
Apple could have made their own ISA, or used one of any number of other ISAs. ARM provides a couple things. First, they offer a progression. You can start out with a drop-in ARM core, and as you progress you can start customizing, and then eventually you can make your own design. (Indeed, the original iPhone CPU contained an off-the-shelf ARM11 core, and the Apple A4 was an ARM-designed Cortex-A8 with some speed tweaks by Apple) Second, obviously it's a proven starting place, you know it works well. It has been debugged, and verification is established. ARM might even license out the formal verification testing, which is a big chunk of work to develop. Designing your own ISA just takes time. Third, there's an established software base and other developers writing for ARM already. BSD already ran on ARM when Apple started making their own core, and gcc/clang have supported ARM targets for years. It's a little bit like licensing USB. Yeah, you could design your own connector with new cables and protocols and electricals. Maybe it would even be better. Or maybe the dominance of USB, proven design, extensive software stack, and so on is worth something. As for providing value, as with USB, ARM will continue to develop the ISA, guide the way for the many other smaller companies, and through their inherent leadership as the sole owners of the ISA, generally keep things cohesive & interoperable.
- cpeterso 8y ago
  At Apple's scale, is there much financial advantage to switching from ARM to RISC V for iOS devices? Does Apple have to pay ARM any per-device royalties?
  - ip26 8y ago
    That's all closely guarded, I'm not even sure if that's public knowledge or not. Worth noting, however, Apple's quarterly revenue is like $50B while ARM's is $500M- split across many customers. Apple certainly has shown a proclivity for such bravado, but I think there's no way it wouldn't be a huge setback to the business & the competitiveness of their chips, and breaking free of Intel ASAP is probably worth a lot more than any royalties they pay ARM.
    - ksec 8y ago
macintux 8y ago
Worth noting that Apple has a long history with ARM dating back to the Newton, plus the established low-power advantages it holds. Considering that Steve went to Intel to discuss the possibilities of them making the iPhone processor, I don’t think independence from Intel was a primary motivator. Sustainable? I doubt anyone knows. But certainly ARM currently offers a significant value proposition.
- deepnotderp 8y ago
  ARM honestly has little low power advantage intrinsically speaking as an isa, it's just that most low power cpus tend to be ARM and most arm cpus tend to be low power, same with x86 but for high power and performance.
  - vlovich123 8y ago
    I have yet to see an x86 ISA that can scale down to the power requirements of ARM. So while the performance/watt might be comparable it seems like getting an x86 design to run at such a low wattage is difficult - otherwise Android x86 would have taken off more successfully.
- indemnity 8y ago
  ARM was started as a joint venture between Apple & Acorn, so yes, there is some history.

phkahler 8y ago

They're already thinking of relisting ARM. I can't help but thinking risc V is invalidating their plans for Arm and they want out. Some big customers are designing their own CPUs now and that should be showing up in Arms sales projections.

herogreen 8y ago
Mind to share a source ?
- phkahler 8y ago
  >> Mind to share a source ? A source for which statement? I made a few. If you mean that they are thinking of relisting ARM, the linked article that this comment thread is under says that softbank is considering relisting ARM (already!). If you want a source for my statement that big customers are designing their own CPUs then I could offer that Samsung is a current ARM customer that is known to be developing RISC-V cores: https://www.electronicsweekly.com/blogs/mannerisms/dilemmas/samsung-defection-arm-risc-v-2016-11/ https://www.electronicsweekly.com/blogs/mannerisms/dilemmas/... https://www.androidauthority.com/samsung-risc-v-cpu-core-731670/ https://www.androidauthority.com/samsung-risc-v-cpu-core-731... I thought there were more direct sources back when the news came out about Samsung but don't see them now. Western Digital has indicated many times that they will be transitioning 1 Billion cores per year to RISC-V: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z48V8yMOFxA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z48V8yMOFxA It seems hard to find proof of what WD will be replacing with RISC-V but it seems extremely likely that its ARM, and here is one link that indicates ARM in a WD product: https://www.hardwaresecrets.com/wd-my-cloud-3-tb-network-hdd-review/3/ https://www.hardwaresecrets.com/wd-my-cloud-3-tb-network-hdd... We also know NVIDIA is replacing their Falcon GPU controller with a home-grown RISC-V core, but that will not displace ARM. They did indicate a desire for "rich OS" support, which they currently do with ARM. Here's their old presentation: https://riscv.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Tue1100_Nvidia_RISCV_Story_V2.pdf https://riscv.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Tue1100_Nvidia_... Looking around, it's easy to find companies supporting risc-v but hard to find direct statements indicating its use to replace ARM. Anyway, given all the activity I think ARM sales representatives have a good view of their future prospects. They undoubtedly have some preliminary numbers on future ARM displacement by risc-v. If I were on an investors conference call with them (which they don't have because they're owned by softbank now?) I would ask directly about this very thing.

euske 8y ago

FYI: He believes that the singularity is coming. Apparently he has had this dream since his childhood. In another Japanese interview, he repeatedly said that hyper-intelligence will make people happy. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/20/business/dealbook/masayoshi-son-softbank-artificial-intelligence.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/20/business/dealbook/masayos...

mepian 8y ago
I wonder what he thinks about the end of Moore's law.
agumonkey 8y ago
I have near zero faith in singularity benefits (if it ever happens). The more people have the less they see.
- colordrops 8y ago
  Perhaps I have the wrong idea of what the "singularity" even is, but I suspect there wouldn't even be recognizable humans afterward.
  - agumonkey 8y ago
    singularity is mostly an exponential growth in capabilities, closed loop cascade from all technologies; of course people think they'll be able to augment humans to infinity but it's a large ignorance about humans, limits, balance and wisdom. It's just tech pornography, unlimited blah, people will try and they will realize it's mostly a useless thrill.
hkmurakami 8y ago
It is a national dream to make Doraemon a reality ;)

jcoffland 8y ago

Did you know that the ARM instruction set was designed by transgender woman Sophie Wilson? Interesting story. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sophie_Wilson https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sophie_Wilson