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Still makes me scratch my head when the car was billed as having "full self driving hardware" at the point of sale. This is the second hardware upgrade they've

Still makes me scratch my head when the car was billed as having "full self driving hardware" at the point of sale. This is the second hardware upgrade they've done already, although if it's free I suppose nobody but investors are complaining.

azhenley 8y ago
It certainly isn't fully self-driving, but I must say that it does remarkably well on interstates. Still isn't worth the additional 5-6k for me yet.
- nolok 8y ago
  > I must say that it does remarkably well on interstates ... until it mis-view an exit lane and attempts to crash/kill you, that is (see events of 2018). That is kind of deal breaker for me, when talking about 1+ ton metal box moving me around I will take "slow to market but not blind" instead. I'm still waiting for Tesla to accept reality and put lidar (make the option more expensive if you have to and you probably do, whatever)
  - AnthonyMouse 8y ago
    > That is kind of deal breaker for me, when talking about 1+ ton metal box moving me around I will take "slow to market but not blind" instead. The way Elon Musk tells it, they put it into production once it was safer per mile than human drivers. Which seems like a legitimate point. You use something when it's better than what you would have to use in the alternative, not when it's 100% perfect with no possibility of ever making a mistake under any circumstances. Which is probably not even actually possible to do. The problem is if human drivers kill more than 30,000 people in a year, it's not news, because it's been that way forever. But one autonomous car kills one person and it's the top story.
    - cjhopman 8y ago
      > The way Elon Musk tells it, they put it into production once it was safer per mile than human drivers. I'd caution you against believing anything that he says. It's easy to extract from the data an unfair comparison that shows the group with Tesla AP being safer, but comparing it against cars in totally different driving context or against the safety of motorcycles is just completely deceptive. The stats indicate that Tesla w/AP enabled on freeways is less safe than Tesla w/o AP enabled on freeways.
      - Retric 8y ago
        Last I checked insurance companies gave a discount for AP Tesla’s over non AP Tesla’s suggesting the opposite. Do you some support backing this up?
        FireBeyond 8y ago
        Tesla subsidized those discounts, it wasn't (or wasn't wholly) a factor of actuarial's assessment of AP safety. But Tesla knew it would certainly be perceived as such.
        Klathmon 8y ago
        >Tesla subsidized those discounts How? I'm not trying to instigate something here, but a quick search of this isn't showing anything except a bunch of groaning about how unfair it is that Tesla gets all kinds of tax breaks for its cars because it's the only one selling electric at any kind of scale.
        FireBeyond 8y ago
        Tesla partnered with Liberty Mutual: https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-liberty-mutual-create-customize-insurance-package-2017-10 https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-liberty-mutual-create-... "The firm's InsureMyTesla program is an example of Tesla working directly with an insurance partner to mitigate risks and keep rates low."
    - FireBeyond 8y ago
      > The way Elon Musk tells it, they put it into production once it was safer per mile than human drivers. Which seems like a legitimate point. It's also only used/active when it is reasonably able to work. Therefore the miles used are inherently better/safer as it is (much less whiteout / torrential AP driving). This is a luxury human drivers do not have, short of "do not drive those miles at all". I have always hated this metric. It's disingenuous, and selective.
      - darkpuma 8y ago
        Precisely. During one nasty ice storm at night I might see more wrecked cars in a single hour than I see the rest of the year combined. And no currently available automation system would dare operate in those conditions, so human drivers take a huge statistical hit from conditions like that but the computers don't. All of these 'safer than humans' metrics are apples to oranges.
      - AnthonyMouse 8y ago
        So look to other metrics, like the effect on crashes before and after the introduction of the autopilot feature. But those also show a safety improvement. https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-autopilot-cuts-crash-rates-by-40-government-finds-2017-1 https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-autopilot-cuts-crash-r... They may not be taking the hardest miles, but the only way to improve the overall average is to be doing better than the status quo on the miles they are taking.
    - Splines 8y ago
      > they put it into production once it was safer per mile than human drivers The thing is that I can take precautions to increase my safety margin - don't drive impaired, drive in good weather conditions, get lots of sleep, don't be aggressive, don't follow closely, etc. etc. etc. I don't have a Tesla, but I imagine there's nothing I can do to voluntarily make it safer. It functions normally until it doesn't.
      - dancek 8y ago
        This is a very good point, and one I hadn't considered. It's common knowledge that most people think they're better than average drivers, so we tend to compensate and believe we're no better than the statistical average driver. But yes indeed, most of us in fact are better than average drivers whenever we're doing our best to drive carefully.
      - renox 8y ago
        In theory, you can take extra precautions sure, but will you take these precautions all the times? Human nature says no: you're in a hurry, you've eaten too much, you have a cold, all these things reduce your ability to drive safely..
      - zarkov99 8y ago
        You can pay attention and keep your hands on the wheel. From what I know all the people who had accidents failed to do this. The challenge seems to be how to overcome the false sense of security drivers get, precisely because the thing works so well most of the time.
        darkpuma 8y ago
        > "You can pay attention and keep your hands on the wheel." In that sense these Level 2 systems are a lot like q-tips. The box says you shouldn't stick them in your ear, but everybody knows that's what you buy them for. If everybody were to follow the directions, the consumer desirability of the product would plummet. Even though you're not supposed to take your hands off the wheel, level 2 systems are often referred to as "hands off". And during a 60 Minutes interview Elon Musk is seen taking his hands off the wheel. Unofficially the point of Level 2 automation is that you can take your hands off the wheel. Officially, your hands must remain on the wheel. The unofficial usecase is what actually gets consumers enthusiastic, but the official usecase is what companies like Tesla cover their ass with. They're having their cake and eating it too.
    - cma 8y ago
      > The way Elon Musk tells it, they put it into production once it was safer per mile than human drivers. Which seems like a legitimate point. They were comparing crash and fatality statistics against things like motorcycles.
    - LoSboccacc 8y ago
      There's zero chance that they know it's safer per mile than humans. Incidents are so far in between you'd need way more more than what the paltry Tesla fleet is collecting before crash per mile could be accounted for with any meaningful accuracy
      - sliken 8y ago
        Tesla have been driven over a billion miles, seems like plenty to get a good estimate.
        LoSboccacc 8y ago
        There are 11 fatality per billion miles driven, and that includes bikes and such, car do even better. So no "over a billion" isn't plenty. Are they safer? Possibly. Statistics show they are safer? That's bollocks. There's not enough data to say yet.
  - Joky 8y ago
    How would Lidar magically solves the "mis-view" of the exit lane?
- zozbot123 8y ago
  It is a garden-variety advanced-driver-assistance system (ADAS) same as other top-of-the-line cars have, and not even the most advanced on the market! To describe it as being anything close to "self-driving" is so implausibly charitable that it borders on being disingenuous.
  - staplers 8y ago
    In Europe I rented a Fiat with ADAS for pretty cheap.. it wasn't even mentioned when I purchased it.
  - SEJeff 8y ago
    Lots of other vehicles have traffic aware cruise control. Can you name a single non-Tesla that can automatically speed up / slow down to switch lanes and take on ramps / off ramps based on navigation? There are lots of things wrong with auto-pilot, but it is far from "garden-variety".
    - selectodude 8y ago
      Cadillac's Super Cruise does all that and even lets you take your hand of the wheel and relax.
      - deleted 8y ago
        [deleted]
      - Shivetya 8y ago
        Cadillac Super Cruise is limited to select roads only, their site states 130,000 miles of mapped highways. The Tesla system, I am only referring to EAP, works on any road it can find lines. Having used it the hardest part wasn't in trusting to keep in the lane but stopping. However that part is true with a traffic aware cruise control system. is it flawless, no, but it does work in conditions I didn't find fun driving in. An example was two lane highway, at night, in the rain, with enough jokers with badly aimed lights or not dimming their lights. It did very well and let me feel confident looking away from the road if the oncoming car's lights were too bright. I did not buy the FSD suite, I don't have a desire for that level of autonomy and I am not confident anyone will pull it off soon. I mean I have seen examples where they map it all but that isn't the same.
- haberman 8y ago
  I would add to this that Autopilot is great in stop-and-go traffic. It makes an annoying situation so much more pleasant when the car is doing all the stopping and going for you.
  - masklinn 8y ago
    Those are the simplest two situations and were already well handled by driving assistance years ago (adaptive cruise control dates back to the late 90s, lane assistance the early aughts, jam automation is probably the youngest with the first live products maybe 5 years back or so?)
SEJeff 8y ago
As an investor AND a Model 3 owner who purchased FSD, I'm content knowing that I'm "funding" the research that will bring us FSD. I'm content knowing when they get it right I'll have access to it and in the meantime am simply enjoying an incredible car.
- cjhopman 8y ago
  I don't want to discourage you, but every indication is that Tesla is far behind the leaders in FSD. I don't know that its correct to claim to be "funding" anything that is pushing those boundaries.
  - toomuchtodo 8y ago
    Tesla has the largest sensor fleet on the road [1] (~370k vehicles with AP2.0+ hardware, adding ~25k units a month to that) contributing to the refinement of their models (~1.2 billion miles of shadow mode experience). Waymo may be closer because of Google/Alphabet resources, but I can't buy a Waymo vehicle nor ride in one, and I'd rather give Tesla the money than Google. [1] https://i.redd.it/qvrw7zcvw8821.png https://i.redd.it/qvrw7zcvw8821.png
    - imtringued 8y ago
      Can those sensors recognize traffic lights?
      - toomuchtodo 8y ago
        Can cameras not detect traffic lights and their signal colors, assisted with mapping data to give a fuzzy idea where traffic light recognition will be required?
        jfk13 8y ago
        If they relied on mapping data to help them know where to look for the lights, I wonder how they'd cope with temporary signals (e.g. at road works)?

azhenley 8y ago

It certainly isn't fully self-driving, but I must say that it does remarkably well on interstates. Still isn't worth the additional 5-6k for me yet.

nolok 8y ago
> I must say that it does remarkably well on interstates ... until it mis-view an exit lane and attempts to crash/kill you, that is (see events of 2018). That is kind of deal breaker for me, when talking about 1+ ton metal box moving me around I will take "slow to market but not blind" instead. I'm still waiting for Tesla to accept reality and put lidar (make the option more expensive if you have to and you probably do, whatever)
- AnthonyMouse 8y ago
  > That is kind of deal breaker for me, when talking about 1+ ton metal box moving me around I will take "slow to market but not blind" instead. The way Elon Musk tells it, they put it into production once it was safer per mile than human drivers. Which seems like a legitimate point. You use something when it's better than what you would have to use in the alternative, not when it's 100% perfect with no possibility of ever making a mistake under any circumstances. Which is probably not even actually possible to do. The problem is if human drivers kill more than 30,000 people in a year, it's not news, because it's been that way forever. But one autonomous car kills one person and it's the top story.
  - cjhopman 8y ago
    > The way Elon Musk tells it, they put it into production once it was safer per mile than human drivers. I'd caution you against believing anything that he says. It's easy to extract from the data an unfair comparison that shows the group with Tesla AP being safer, but comparing it against cars in totally different driving context or against the safety of motorcycles is just completely deceptive. The stats indicate that Tesla w/AP enabled on freeways is less safe than Tesla w/o AP enabled on freeways.
    - Retric 8y ago
      Last I checked insurance companies gave a discount for AP Tesla’s over non AP Tesla’s suggesting the opposite. Do you some support backing this up?
      - FireBeyond 8y ago
        Tesla subsidized those discounts, it wasn't (or wasn't wholly) a factor of actuarial's assessment of AP safety. But Tesla knew it would certainly be perceived as such.
        Klathmon 8y ago
        >Tesla subsidized those discounts How? I'm not trying to instigate something here, but a quick search of this isn't showing anything except a bunch of groaning about how unfair it is that Tesla gets all kinds of tax breaks for its cars because it's the only one selling electric at any kind of scale.
        FireBeyond 8y ago
        Tesla partnered with Liberty Mutual: https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-liberty-mutual-create-customize-insurance-package-2017-10 https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-liberty-mutual-create-... "The firm's InsureMyTesla program is an example of Tesla working directly with an insurance partner to mitigate risks and keep rates low."
  - FireBeyond 8y ago
    > The way Elon Musk tells it, they put it into production once it was safer per mile than human drivers. Which seems like a legitimate point. It's also only used/active when it is reasonably able to work. Therefore the miles used are inherently better/safer as it is (much less whiteout / torrential AP driving). This is a luxury human drivers do not have, short of "do not drive those miles at all". I have always hated this metric. It's disingenuous, and selective.
    - darkpuma 8y ago
      Precisely. During one nasty ice storm at night I might see more wrecked cars in a single hour than I see the rest of the year combined. And no currently available automation system would dare operate in those conditions, so human drivers take a huge statistical hit from conditions like that but the computers don't. All of these 'safer than humans' metrics are apples to oranges.
    - AnthonyMouse 8y ago
      So look to other metrics, like the effect on crashes before and after the introduction of the autopilot feature. But those also show a safety improvement. https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-autopilot-cuts-crash-rates-by-40-government-finds-2017-1 https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-autopilot-cuts-crash-r... They may not be taking the hardest miles, but the only way to improve the overall average is to be doing better than the status quo on the miles they are taking.
  - Splines 8y ago
    > they put it into production once it was safer per mile than human drivers The thing is that I can take precautions to increase my safety margin - don't drive impaired, drive in good weather conditions, get lots of sleep, don't be aggressive, don't follow closely, etc. etc. etc. I don't have a Tesla, but I imagine there's nothing I can do to voluntarily make it safer. It functions normally until it doesn't.
    - dancek 8y ago
      This is a very good point, and one I hadn't considered. It's common knowledge that most people think they're better than average drivers, so we tend to compensate and believe we're no better than the statistical average driver. But yes indeed, most of us in fact are better than average drivers whenever we're doing our best to drive carefully.
    - renox 8y ago
      In theory, you can take extra precautions sure, but will you take these precautions all the times? Human nature says no: you're in a hurry, you've eaten too much, you have a cold, all these things reduce your ability to drive safely..
    - zarkov99 8y ago
      You can pay attention and keep your hands on the wheel. From what I know all the people who had accidents failed to do this. The challenge seems to be how to overcome the false sense of security drivers get, precisely because the thing works so well most of the time.
      - darkpuma 8y ago
        > "You can pay attention and keep your hands on the wheel." In that sense these Level 2 systems are a lot like q-tips. The box says you shouldn't stick them in your ear, but everybody knows that's what you buy them for. If everybody were to follow the directions, the consumer desirability of the product would plummet. Even though you're not supposed to take your hands off the wheel, level 2 systems are often referred to as "hands off". And during a 60 Minutes interview Elon Musk is seen taking his hands off the wheel. Unofficially the point of Level 2 automation is that you can take your hands off the wheel. Officially, your hands must remain on the wheel. The unofficial usecase is what actually gets consumers enthusiastic, but the official usecase is what companies like Tesla cover their ass with. They're having their cake and eating it too.
  - cma 8y ago
    > The way Elon Musk tells it, they put it into production once it was safer per mile than human drivers. Which seems like a legitimate point. They were comparing crash and fatality statistics against things like motorcycles.
  - LoSboccacc 8y ago
    There's zero chance that they know it's safer per mile than humans. Incidents are so far in between you'd need way more more than what the paltry Tesla fleet is collecting before crash per mile could be accounted for with any meaningful accuracy
    - sliken 8y ago
      Tesla have been driven over a billion miles, seems like plenty to get a good estimate.
      - LoSboccacc 8y ago
        There are 11 fatality per billion miles driven, and that includes bikes and such, car do even better. So no "over a billion" isn't plenty. Are they safer? Possibly. Statistics show they are safer? That's bollocks. There's not enough data to say yet.
- Joky 8y ago
  How would Lidar magically solves the "mis-view" of the exit lane?
zozbot123 8y ago
It is a garden-variety advanced-driver-assistance system (ADAS) same as other top-of-the-line cars have, and not even the most advanced on the market! To describe it as being anything close to "self-driving" is so implausibly charitable that it borders on being disingenuous.
- staplers 8y ago
  In Europe I rented a Fiat with ADAS for pretty cheap.. it wasn't even mentioned when I purchased it.
- SEJeff 8y ago
  Lots of other vehicles have traffic aware cruise control. Can you name a single non-Tesla that can automatically speed up / slow down to switch lanes and take on ramps / off ramps based on navigation? There are lots of things wrong with auto-pilot, but it is far from "garden-variety".
  - selectodude 8y ago
    Cadillac's Super Cruise does all that and even lets you take your hand of the wheel and relax.
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
    - Shivetya 8y ago
      Cadillac Super Cruise is limited to select roads only, their site states 130,000 miles of mapped highways. The Tesla system, I am only referring to EAP, works on any road it can find lines. Having used it the hardest part wasn't in trusting to keep in the lane but stopping. However that part is true with a traffic aware cruise control system. is it flawless, no, but it does work in conditions I didn't find fun driving in. An example was two lane highway, at night, in the rain, with enough jokers with badly aimed lights or not dimming their lights. It did very well and let me feel confident looking away from the road if the oncoming car's lights were too bright. I did not buy the FSD suite, I don't have a desire for that level of autonomy and I am not confident anyone will pull it off soon. I mean I have seen examples where they map it all but that isn't the same.
haberman 8y ago
I would add to this that Autopilot is great in stop-and-go traffic. It makes an annoying situation so much more pleasant when the car is doing all the stopping and going for you.
- masklinn 8y ago
  Those are the simplest two situations and were already well handled by driving assistance years ago (adaptive cruise control dates back to the late 90s, lane assistance the early aughts, jam automation is probably the youngest with the first live products maybe 5 years back or so?)

SEJeff 8y ago

As an investor AND a Model 3 owner who purchased FSD, I'm content knowing that I'm "funding" the research that will bring us FSD. I'm content knowing when they get it right I'll have access to it and in the meantime am simply enjoying an incredible car.

cjhopman 8y ago
I don't want to discourage you, but every indication is that Tesla is far behind the leaders in FSD. I don't know that its correct to claim to be "funding" anything that is pushing those boundaries.
- toomuchtodo 8y ago
  Tesla has the largest sensor fleet on the road [1] (~370k vehicles with AP2.0+ hardware, adding ~25k units a month to that) contributing to the refinement of their models (~1.2 billion miles of shadow mode experience). Waymo may be closer because of Google/Alphabet resources, but I can't buy a Waymo vehicle nor ride in one, and I'd rather give Tesla the money than Google. [1] https://i.redd.it/qvrw7zcvw8821.png https://i.redd.it/qvrw7zcvw8821.png
  - imtringued 8y ago
    Can those sensors recognize traffic lights?
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      Can cameras not detect traffic lights and their signal colors, assisted with mapping data to give a fuzzy idea where traffic light recognition will be required?
      - jfk13 8y ago
        If they relied on mapping data to help them know where to look for the lights, I wonder how they'd cope with temporary signals (e.g. at road works)?