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my two take away items. 1) China, obviously, if luxury perceived items like Apple products are slowing then that is a real indicator of the economy truly slowi

my two take away items. 1) China, obviously, if luxury perceived items like Apple products are slowing then that is a real indicator of the economy truly slowing regardless what the government states. 2) Having to full develop an in store trade in program pretty much is admission they priced themselves out of the market

hopler 8y ago
1. Possibly. It could also mean that apple is reaching saturation and evolving from growth sales to replacement-level sales as purchased products get old and wear out.
- headsoup 8y ago
  Pretty sure they've been at saturation for a while now...
tanilama 8y ago
They played that Appel Status Symbol card for too long. In China, Yuan's depreciation should also be counted, so eventually Apple raised the price for local customer for about 30%, north to 10k in Chinese Yuan. In fact with 4 times that much money you can buy a budget car in China. People chasing status symbol but they are not fools, and the local brands offer good enough quality with only 40% of the price, you know what to choose.
- hn_throwaway_99 8y ago
  > People chasing status symbol but they are not fools I think that is the real risk to Apple. Right now iPhones (esp. in China) are a status symbol, but public opinion is a fickle thing. It's possible rising nationalism in China could also lead to an atmosphere where buying an iPhone is looked down upon as an exercise in conspicuous consumption but paid to China's enemy (when home grown phones are "just as" good). When that happens, Apple really is in dire straits. Apple needs to ensure they can innovate faster than the competition, but with a lot of value shifting to AI-related services (not necessarily Apple's strong point - compare Siri to Alexa or Google Assistant), that's a tough battle for Apple.
  - tanilama 8y ago
    Nationalism is one thing. My observation is that Chinese people generally hold favorable opinions towards Apple, it has a harmless image: selling good phones that happen to be really good looking. But I would say the real reason that Apple is suffering now is that they stopped to innovate. Those touted innovations on their press conference is hardly convincing that they are essential to my user experience. Gimmicks, like Animojis are showcased and centred during the once a year event to communicate to their customers. It is embarrassing and laughable. And I blame Apple itself 100% on this, they are setting on a largest pile of cash that mankind every entrusted to a private corporate and does nothing. Now comes the recoknining, and it is probably overdue.
    - hn_throwaway_99 8y ago
      I don't necessarily agree Apple stopped innovating, but I think that as the smartphone market has matured the places ripe for innovation are not in areas of Apple's strengths. For example, Apple's design and hardware/software integration excellence were absolutely perfectly aligned with the transitions from "phone" to "high powered computer in your pocket". But now most of the innovation is happening it data-related AI areas where Google and Amazon are much stronger. I mean, Apple Maps was released 6 years ago, and while it has improved by leaps and bounds I still don't see any reason to use it over Google Maps (and that is despite Google Maps becoming ever more annoying with more clutter every release).
  - gwright 8y ago
    I was with you up to "dire straits". That seems too alarmist to me.
- bch 8y ago
  > People [are] chasing [a] status symbol but they are not fools I’m not an economist nor social scientist, but I don’t think a simple “fool” judgement necessarily explains what motivates. Mind the story below is from 2009 and of luxury automobiles, but my point stands... I feel like the “rationalization” for events is just post-hoc acknowledgement of “which way the wind blows”. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/porsche-in-china-higher-sales-tax-higher-status/article4214686/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/porsche-i...
adventured 8y ago
> then that is a real indicator of the economy truly slowing regardless what the government states A bunch of prominent economic figures out of China in the last month or two have pointed to a near-recession there. They're outright lying about 6.5% growth (if it's more than 1/4 that I'd be surprised), their economy is getting close to contracting. Their manufacturing sector is about to tip into recession [1] (guaranteed with the worst of the tariff hit just starting now) and their consumption tax numbers [2] have imploded at a historic rate. The iPhone sales drop in China aligns with the drop in the consumption figures there. Their credit impulse is deeply negative, which is a particularly bad thing to have happening with all the other negative numbers. Their new export orders PMI is in deep contraction.[3] They've got a lot of banks that need recapitalized soon with a central government intent on constraining the growth of further debt. In the cities you're seeing a painful wave of deflationary pressure hitting their housing market, with their world-leading vacancy rates on housing units (epic overbuilding) only making it worse. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/china-reports-december-caixin-manufacturing-purchasing-managers-index.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/china-reports-december-caixi... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-31/china-s-economic-slowdown-is-worsening-stop-dithering-beijing https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-31/china-... [3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-31/china-slowdown-continues-with-factory-gauge-down-to-2016-level https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-31/china-slo...

hopler 8y ago

1. Possibly. It could also mean that apple is reaching saturation and evolving from growth sales to replacement-level sales as purchased products get old and wear out.

headsoup 8y ago
Pretty sure they've been at saturation for a while now...

tanilama 8y ago

They played that Appel Status Symbol card for too long. In China, Yuan's depreciation should also be counted, so eventually Apple raised the price for local customer for about 30%, north to 10k in Chinese Yuan. In fact with 4 times that much money you can buy a budget car in China. People chasing status symbol but they are not fools, and the local brands offer good enough quality with only 40% of the price, you know what to choose.

hn_throwaway_99 8y ago
> People chasing status symbol but they are not fools I think that is the real risk to Apple. Right now iPhones (esp. in China) are a status symbol, but public opinion is a fickle thing. It's possible rising nationalism in China could also lead to an atmosphere where buying an iPhone is looked down upon as an exercise in conspicuous consumption but paid to China's enemy (when home grown phones are "just as" good). When that happens, Apple really is in dire straits. Apple needs to ensure they can innovate faster than the competition, but with a lot of value shifting to AI-related services (not necessarily Apple's strong point - compare Siri to Alexa or Google Assistant), that's a tough battle for Apple.
- tanilama 8y ago
  Nationalism is one thing. My observation is that Chinese people generally hold favorable opinions towards Apple, it has a harmless image: selling good phones that happen to be really good looking. But I would say the real reason that Apple is suffering now is that they stopped to innovate. Those touted innovations on their press conference is hardly convincing that they are essential to my user experience. Gimmicks, like Animojis are showcased and centred during the once a year event to communicate to their customers. It is embarrassing and laughable. And I blame Apple itself 100% on this, they are setting on a largest pile of cash that mankind every entrusted to a private corporate and does nothing. Now comes the recoknining, and it is probably overdue.
  - hn_throwaway_99 8y ago
    I don't necessarily agree Apple stopped innovating, but I think that as the smartphone market has matured the places ripe for innovation are not in areas of Apple's strengths. For example, Apple's design and hardware/software integration excellence were absolutely perfectly aligned with the transitions from "phone" to "high powered computer in your pocket". But now most of the innovation is happening it data-related AI areas where Google and Amazon are much stronger. I mean, Apple Maps was released 6 years ago, and while it has improved by leaps and bounds I still don't see any reason to use it over Google Maps (and that is despite Google Maps becoming ever more annoying with more clutter every release).
- gwright 8y ago
  I was with you up to "dire straits". That seems too alarmist to me.
bch 8y ago
> People [are] chasing [a] status symbol but they are not fools I’m not an economist nor social scientist, but I don’t think a simple “fool” judgement necessarily explains what motivates. Mind the story below is from 2009 and of luxury automobiles, but my point stands... I feel like the “rationalization” for events is just post-hoc acknowledgement of “which way the wind blows”. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/porsche-in-china-higher-sales-tax-higher-status/article4214686/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/porsche-i...

adventured 8y ago

> then that is a real indicator of the economy truly slowing regardless what the government states A bunch of prominent economic figures out of China in the last month or two have pointed to a near-recession there. They're outright lying about 6.5% growth (if it's more than 1/4 that I'd be surprised), their economy is getting close to contracting. Their manufacturing sector is about to tip into recession [1] (guaranteed with the worst of the tariff hit just starting now) and their consumption tax numbers [2] have imploded at a historic rate. The iPhone sales drop in China aligns with the drop in the consumption figures there. Their credit impulse is deeply negative, which is a particularly bad thing to have happening with all the other negative numbers. Their new export orders PMI is in deep contraction.[3] They've got a lot of banks that need recapitalized soon with a central government intent on constraining the growth of further debt. In the cities you're seeing a painful wave of deflationary pressure hitting their housing market, with their world-leading vacancy rates on housing units (epic overbuilding) only making it worse. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/china-reports-december-caixin-manufacturing-purchasing-managers-index.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/china-reports-december-caixi... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-31/china-s-economic-slowdown-is-worsening-stop-dithering-beijing https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-31/china-... [3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-31/china-slowdown-continues-with-factory-gauge-down-to-2016-level https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-31/china-slo...