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"Automaker sold 63,150 Model 3 in the fourth quarter" - [and this is only in North America] What Tesla has achieved is truly unbelievable and it is kind of hila

by dmode 8y ago

"Automaker sold 63,150 Model 3 in the fourth quarter" - [and this is only in North America] What Tesla has achieved is truly unbelievable and it is kind of hilarious to see HN meltdown and Tesla bashing. To give you a perspective on how much of a gigantic scale this is, BMW only sold 99,000 3/4 series in the US in all on 2017 [1]. Tesla is a carmaker who only sold ~100 vehicles in 2011. It is amazing how much of Tesla's success is under-appreciated in this forum. [1] http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/bmw/bmw-3-series-4-series/ http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/bmw/bmw-3-series-4...

iseeyoubydesign 8y ago
"appreciated" ... its a company , its a business. I dont appreciate it because Im not a customer. I hope their customers do appreciate it, why buy their product otherwise. It seems like Tesla is either the inventor of the new wheel or an awful sweat shop for engineers. I happen to just think its a company that better make profit for its investors. And Elon is just another business man. How much more appreciation does Tesla deserve?
juhanima 8y ago
Nope, that's just the U.S. sales figures for BMW (says so in the link). You need to add the European sales of the 3-series (129,000) and 4-series (64,000) with the China figures (123,000) to get a bit closer to the global figure of 415,000 cars for both 3/4 series.
- dmode 8y ago
  Yes, you are right. Edited post
  - juhanima 8y ago
    Thanks! Tesla's progress sure has been impressive even with the correct figures.
- omarforgotpwd 8y ago
  Yes, but the Model 3 won't start selling in Europe and China until this quarter. Once that happens we can compare sales, but for now US is the only area where you can make a comparison.
vkou 8y ago
Meanwhile, Toyota, which is only at 3x the market cap of Tesla, sold >2,200,000 vehicles in Q4. It ships more combined battery capacity in its hybrids, then Tesla does in its EVs.
- dmode 8y ago
  Toyota was founded in 1937, so it has a 80 year head start. I didn't say anything about market cap, but Toyota's is not valued as a growth stock.
- georgeecollins 8y ago
  Sure, and Samsung and Huawei sell more phones than Apple. Probably Tesla is overvalued but that doesn't mean it isn't very valuable. Pricing power is much more important than volume.
- jsight 8y ago
  I think you are misestimating. Toyota sells ~1.5 million hybrids (plugin and otherwise) per year. If I'm not mistaken, the average capacity is ~6kwh. That works out to 9,000,000 KWh (9 GWh). Tesla sold about 250,000 cars last year, with an average pack size of at least 70 KWh. That works out to 17,500,000 KWh (17.5 GWh). Obviously, these are estimates, but Tesla is also running at a pace closer to ~320k units for next year with only marginally smaller pack sizes. Revenue is another interesting metric. Toyota is at ~280 billion/year (USD). Tesla is currently at ~27 billion/year.
  - iso1337 8y ago
    I think even these estimates of Toyotas battery capacity are too high. Here's my attempt: Prius Prime PHEV: 8.8 kWh Regular Prius: I couldn't find recent numbers, but 1st gen was 1.2 kWh All other hybrids seem to have between 1-2 kWh https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_Synergy_Drive#High_voltage_battery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_Synergy_Drive#High_volt... European PHEV sales were 0.3% of all sales and 0.65% of all hybrids [1] US Prius Prime 2017 sales (I think their only PHEV model) were 21k units. [2] Note that 21k units just in the US out of 1.5m hybrids total gives us 1.4%, so maybe the PHEV prius is not selling as well in Europe. Let's say we have the following scenarios of 2.5 or 5% of the total 1.5m number being PHEV to be conservative. Further assume that regular hybrids have 1.5 kWh. For the 2.5% scenario, if my math is correct, that yields 550,000 kWh. For the 5% PHEV scenario, that yields 874,000 kWh. [1] https://insideevs.com/only-0-3-of-toyota-sales-in-europe-were-plug-in-hybrids/ https://insideevs.com/only-0-3-of-toyota-sales-in-europe-wer... [2] 2017 table from https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

by dmode 8y ago

iseeyoubydesign 8y ago

"appreciated" ... its a company , its a business. I dont appreciate it because Im not a customer. I hope their customers do appreciate it, why buy their product otherwise. It seems like Tesla is either the inventor of the new wheel or an awful sweat shop for engineers. I happen to just think its a company that better make profit for its investors. And Elon is just another business man. How much more appreciation does Tesla deserve?

juhanima 8y ago

Nope, that's just the U.S. sales figures for BMW (says so in the link). You need to add the European sales of the 3-series (129,000) and 4-series (64,000) with the China figures (123,000) to get a bit closer to the global figure of 415,000 cars for both 3/4 series.

dmode 8y ago
Yes, you are right. Edited post
- juhanima 8y ago
  Thanks! Tesla's progress sure has been impressive even with the correct figures.
omarforgotpwd 8y ago
Yes, but the Model 3 won't start selling in Europe and China until this quarter. Once that happens we can compare sales, but for now US is the only area where you can make a comparison.

vkou 8y ago

Meanwhile, Toyota, which is only at 3x the market cap of Tesla, sold >2,200,000 vehicles in Q4. It ships more combined battery capacity in its hybrids, then Tesla does in its EVs.

dmode 8y ago
Toyota was founded in 1937, so it has a 80 year head start. I didn't say anything about market cap, but Toyota's is not valued as a growth stock.
georgeecollins 8y ago
Sure, and Samsung and Huawei sell more phones than Apple. Probably Tesla is overvalued but that doesn't mean it isn't very valuable. Pricing power is much more important than volume.
jsight 8y ago
I think you are misestimating. Toyota sells ~1.5 million hybrids (plugin and otherwise) per year. If I'm not mistaken, the average capacity is ~6kwh. That works out to 9,000,000 KWh (9 GWh). Tesla sold about 250,000 cars last year, with an average pack size of at least 70 KWh. That works out to 17,500,000 KWh (17.5 GWh). Obviously, these are estimates, but Tesla is also running at a pace closer to ~320k units for next year with only marginally smaller pack sizes. Revenue is another interesting metric. Toyota is at ~280 billion/year (USD). Tesla is currently at ~27 billion/year.
- iso1337 8y ago
  I think even these estimates of Toyotas battery capacity are too high. Here's my attempt: Prius Prime PHEV: 8.8 kWh Regular Prius: I couldn't find recent numbers, but 1st gen was 1.2 kWh All other hybrids seem to have between 1-2 kWh https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_Synergy_Drive#High_voltage_battery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_Synergy_Drive#High_volt... European PHEV sales were 0.3% of all sales and 0.65% of all hybrids [1] US Prius Prime 2017 sales (I think their only PHEV model) were 21k units. [2] Note that 21k units just in the US out of 1.5m hybrids total gives us 1.4%, so maybe the PHEV prius is not selling as well in Europe. Let's say we have the following scenarios of 2.5 or 5% of the total 1.5m number being PHEV to be conservative. Further assume that regular hybrids have 1.5 kWh. For the 2.5% scenario, if my math is correct, that yields 550,000 kWh. For the 5% PHEV scenario, that yields 874,000 kWh. [1] https://insideevs.com/only-0-3-of-toyota-sales-in-europe-were-plug-in-hybrids/ https://insideevs.com/only-0-3-of-toyota-sales-in-europe-wer... [2] 2017 table from https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/