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The restrictions were intended to make sure America was energy independent. Since that goal was accomplished, there isn't really a reason to keep them. Increas

by ars 8y ago

The restrictions were intended to make sure America was energy independent. Since that goal was accomplished, there isn't really a reason to keep them. Increasing American exports hurts countries that depend on energy exports. America can manage both with and without exports, but other countries can not. The next step in my mind is increasing non-oil American energy and exporting even more oil, this would further destabilize those oil-dependent countries (most of whom are not friends of the US).

adventured 8y ago
Venezuela is one of the first test cases for those consequences. Their system put them down, the US no longer needing/wanting their sour crude will make it far more difficult to get back up. US oil imports from Venezuela were near one million barrels per day as recently as 2012. It's down about 40% from there, and the US now buys around 60% of their total oil output. It has also been hitting Cuba indirectly (as a Venezuela dependent) for some time and now appears to be entering another stage there.[1] By the time Venezuela gets itself back together as a functioning country and could think about rebuilding its output, the world is unlikely to have much demand for its oil. The IEA is expecting their oil production to drop below one million barrels per day soon (from 3.5 million barrels per day in ~1998). Their estimated extractable reserves was always a bit farcical, however even if you chopped that down by 2/3, roughly 100 billion barrels, that still ends up being several trillion dollars in national wealth that will mostly never be realized. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-economy/reality-bites-cuba-plans-more-austerity-as-finances-worsen-idUSKCN1OR0VN https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-economy/reality-bite...
- alacombe 8y ago
  You cannot put the collapse of Venezuela on US policies... The US didn't put Chavez / Maduro in power, and they didn't ask them to oppress their own people.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
cryptonector 8y ago
Oil export restrictions could never have helped make us energy independent. They were at best neutral. At worse they were a break on energy development in the U.S. because if you're going to bump up against export restrictions, then you'll have a problem. It turns out that oil export restrictions were just a show.

by ars 8y ago

adventured 8y ago

Venezuela is one of the first test cases for those consequences. Their system put them down, the US no longer needing/wanting their sour crude will make it far more difficult to get back up. US oil imports from Venezuela were near one million barrels per day as recently as 2012. It's down about 40% from there, and the US now buys around 60% of their total oil output. It has also been hitting Cuba indirectly (as a Venezuela dependent) for some time and now appears to be entering another stage there.[1] By the time Venezuela gets itself back together as a functioning country and could think about rebuilding its output, the world is unlikely to have much demand for its oil. The IEA is expecting their oil production to drop below one million barrels per day soon (from 3.5 million barrels per day in ~1998). Their estimated extractable reserves was always a bit farcical, however even if you chopped that down by 2/3, roughly 100 billion barrels, that still ends up being several trillion dollars in national wealth that will mostly never be realized. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-economy/reality-bites-cuba-plans-more-austerity-as-finances-worsen-idUSKCN1OR0VN https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cuba-economy/reality-bite...

alacombe 8y ago
You cannot put the collapse of Venezuela on US policies... The US didn't put Chavez / Maduro in power, and they didn't ask them to oppress their own people.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]

cryptonector 8y ago

Oil export restrictions could never have helped make us energy independent. They were at best neutral. At worse they were a break on energy development in the U.S. because if you're going to bump up against export restrictions, then you'll have a problem. It turns out that oil export restrictions were just a show.