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I suspect that within the next two years, as this type of thing (voice recognition, voice synthesis, image recognition) becomes ubiquitous, it will cease to be

by hliyan 8y ago

I suspect that within the next two years, as this type of thing (voice recognition, voice synthesis, image recognition) becomes ubiquitous, it will cease to be called AI and the bar will be raised further. Very soon, applications such as Duplex [1] will become the minimum bar for AI. [1] https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/05/duplex-ai-system-for-natural-conversation.html https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/05/duplex-ai-system-for-natur...

solarkraft 8y ago
I hope so. But investors being so hot to in invest in "the future" that it currently leads to markov chain being called "AI" will probably last for another quarter or two. It's not as vaporware-y as blockchain, but I still see some potential for the bubble to pop. At some point people will hopefully realize that but everything that can be done with a neural network needs to be done with one (and tons of data).
- tree_of_item 8y ago
  It looks like you took the exact opposite inference from the parent than I did: it's not about vaporware, it's about people's impossible standards for what's considered "artificial intelligence". The neural network stuff is anything but vaporware, it's delivered incredible results, but people keep coming up with silly dismissals along the lines of it not being "real AI".
  - hliyan 8y ago
    > but people keep coming up with silly dismissals along the lines of it not being "real AI". That is not what I meant at all. For me, it is the nature of the field and has been that way since the days I first learned it (the 1990's). Once an reproducible algorithm or methodology is discovered to solve an AI problem, it generally ceases to be an AI problem.
    - tree_of_item 8y ago
      Yeah, I actually agree with that. I wonder why you think our statements were incompatible, because that is the sort of thing I would have described as a "silly dismissal". The problem was clearly an AI problem right up until it's solved, and then suddenly it's "not real AI" and people talk about AI being overhyped or whatever. Imagine if people treated programming languages like that. People would get excited about the idea of communicating with a computer, and then when you finally build Python and show it to them, they say "but that's just parsing, what about a real language?" The bar just keeps rising whenever you get close to it. That's the sort of thing I meant by "silly dismissal".
bane 8y ago
There's an old saying that AI is AI until its implemented, and then it's just algorithms.

by hliyan 8y ago

solarkraft 8y ago

I hope so. But investors being so hot to in invest in "the future" that it currently leads to markov chain being called "AI" will probably last for another quarter or two. It's not as vaporware-y as blockchain, but I still see some potential for the bubble to pop. At some point people will hopefully realize that but everything that can be done with a neural network needs to be done with one (and tons of data).

tree_of_item 8y ago
It looks like you took the exact opposite inference from the parent than I did: it's not about vaporware, it's about people's impossible standards for what's considered "artificial intelligence". The neural network stuff is anything but vaporware, it's delivered incredible results, but people keep coming up with silly dismissals along the lines of it not being "real AI".
- hliyan 8y ago
  > but people keep coming up with silly dismissals along the lines of it not being "real AI". That is not what I meant at all. For me, it is the nature of the field and has been that way since the days I first learned it (the 1990's). Once an reproducible algorithm or methodology is discovered to solve an AI problem, it generally ceases to be an AI problem.
  - tree_of_item 8y ago
    Yeah, I actually agree with that. I wonder why you think our statements were incompatible, because that is the sort of thing I would have described as a "silly dismissal". The problem was clearly an AI problem right up until it's solved, and then suddenly it's "not real AI" and people talk about AI being overhyped or whatever. Imagine if people treated programming languages like that. People would get excited about the idea of communicating with a computer, and then when you finally build Python and show it to them, they say "but that's just parsing, what about a real language?" The bar just keeps rising whenever you get close to it. That's the sort of thing I meant by "silly dismissal".

bane 8y ago

There's an old saying that AI is AI until its implemented, and then it's just algorithms.