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I largely agree with the first half of the article -- the global economy is showing cracks at the same time that Western politics is in disarray. But towards t

I largely agree with the first half of the article -- the global economy is showing cracks at the same time that Western politics is in disarray. But towards the end he seems to be saying he thinks this might end in the downfall of civilization as we know it, which, come on. A little overdramatic, and about a dozen steps over the horizon of what you can even speculate about.

api 8y ago
Put the two together. I don't think it's the end of civilization but I'm not sure how our society will deal with another 2008. We could be in for serious turmoil.
janekm 8y ago
I'm not as sanguine as you. We are witnessing the breakdown of effective governing in Western democracies, in part triggered by active intervention by Russia, both in the UK in the case of Brexit and in the US with the Trump election. And in both cases the democratic system is now in complete disarray, with the U.K. government so far unable to stop devastating losses to their economy with politicians either grandstanding or walking off the stage. And in the US you have an individual who despises any form of fact-based consensus building in favour of deciding the literal fate of the world based on his (granted bigly substantial) gut. Literally one person decides to pull the US out of the Paris accord, starts a trade war at the worst possible economic time, pulls military support out of Syria over the consensus of military leadership, and shuts down the US government for good measure. And in both cases members of Congress and parliament are debilitated by infantile infighting and power grabbing from doing anything about it. Combine a minor slow-down of the world economy with that powder kegg and the world could absolutely look completely different from today in a few years time.
candu 8y ago
I'd definitely agree that it's overdramatic, but not that it's unthinkable / un-speculatable. After all, it's not like societal collapse is without precedent in human history. Our latest global financial crisis arguably helped usher in a global wave of xenophobic populists opposed to any kind of evidence-based decision making - which, unfortunately, makes it yet harder to identify and address the root causes of really complex economic, environmental, and socio-political problems. (I should add that I'm still optimistic here - just that we shouldn't offhand dismiss this possibility as totally incredible, and that instead the possibility should serve as a wakeup call.)
jseliger 8y ago
I recommend reading Taleb's The Black Swan. Imagining the unimaginable is much more important than most people give it credit for.
- bilbo0s 8y ago
  I think, maybe, his point is, why would anyone be worried about the stock market or the banks if civilization collapses? (It may not be though. You could read that comment a lot of ways.) That's the one thing that, once it's gone, it's not coming back. So why are you trying to get more dollars or property? Especially when both would have to be guaranteed by the aforementioned collapsed civilization? This entire discussion only means something if civilization is not collapsed. If civilization is collapsed, then the only thing that has any real long term value would be passage to Asia. (Assuming that, like the last collapse, the Eastern half of civilization would chug along happily without the Western half of civilization.) But yeah, for the rest of us, it's just gonna be a slightly more modern version of the dark ages. (ie - More of us will be killed by raids and disease because the weapons tech will be a little better and there are more of us to spread contagion.)

api 8y ago

Put the two together. I don't think it's the end of civilization but I'm not sure how our society will deal with another 2008. We could be in for serious turmoil.

janekm 8y ago

I'm not as sanguine as you. We are witnessing the breakdown of effective governing in Western democracies, in part triggered by active intervention by Russia, both in the UK in the case of Brexit and in the US with the Trump election. And in both cases the democratic system is now in complete disarray, with the U.K. government so far unable to stop devastating losses to their economy with politicians either grandstanding or walking off the stage. And in the US you have an individual who despises any form of fact-based consensus building in favour of deciding the literal fate of the world based on his (granted bigly substantial) gut. Literally one person decides to pull the US out of the Paris accord, starts a trade war at the worst possible economic time, pulls military support out of Syria over the consensus of military leadership, and shuts down the US government for good measure. And in both cases members of Congress and parliament are debilitated by infantile infighting and power grabbing from doing anything about it. Combine a minor slow-down of the world economy with that powder kegg and the world could absolutely look completely different from today in a few years time.

candu 8y ago

I'd definitely agree that it's overdramatic, but not that it's unthinkable / un-speculatable. After all, it's not like societal collapse is without precedent in human history. Our latest global financial crisis arguably helped usher in a global wave of xenophobic populists opposed to any kind of evidence-based decision making - which, unfortunately, makes it yet harder to identify and address the root causes of really complex economic, environmental, and socio-political problems. (I should add that I'm still optimistic here - just that we shouldn't offhand dismiss this possibility as totally incredible, and that instead the possibility should serve as a wakeup call.)

jseliger 8y ago

I recommend reading Taleb's The Black Swan. Imagining the unimaginable is much more important than most people give it credit for.

bilbo0s 8y ago
I think, maybe, his point is, why would anyone be worried about the stock market or the banks if civilization collapses? (It may not be though. You could read that comment a lot of ways.) That's the one thing that, once it's gone, it's not coming back. So why are you trying to get more dollars or property? Especially when both would have to be guaranteed by the aforementioned collapsed civilization? This entire discussion only means something if civilization is not collapsed. If civilization is collapsed, then the only thing that has any real long term value would be passage to Asia. (Assuming that, like the last collapse, the Eastern half of civilization would chug along happily without the Western half of civilization.) But yeah, for the rest of us, it's just gonna be a slightly more modern version of the dark ages. (ie - More of us will be killed by raids and disease because the weapons tech will be a little better and there are more of us to spread contagion.)