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Can AI Predict the Next Area to Gentrify?
- kkhire 8y agoi can predict it with near 100% accuracy anywhere in the world. just show me where all the artists and musicians in your city hangout and pay less than 900/mo on rent.
- geebee 8y agogood plan... but I think we hoping you would show us :)
- natoliniak 8y agoand (of course) lgbt.
- atoav 8y agoWhy _of course_? In all the western cities I know the “gayer” districts usually had their share of gentrification around a decade in the past. Of course artists and creative people in cities tend to be more liberal (because cities in general tend to be more liberal). But in my experience it is rare that the lgbt epicenter and the art epicenter are colocated. Of course art people might hang a rainbow flag out, but that doesn’t mean there are more gays/lesbians/queers living there.
- natoliniak 8y agoFrom my observations, although much has been written about this subject as well. For example, Boston's South End (struggling and transient), Provincetown, Ma (cape cod) a forgotten blue collar village on the decline were all "discovered" by the gay culture and now, paradoxically, their gay character is threatened by big money moving in.
- sonnyblarney 8y agoEssentially correct. You can see way ahead of time where this will happen. That said - there's a new kind of 'suburban gentrification' which is another thing altogether: middle class people not looking to be so much hip, rather than just live in a decent affordable area near downtown that's not crackburg.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]
- megaremote 8y ago> just show me where all the artists and musicians in your city hangout and pay less than 900/mo on rent. Well, that is the trick bit.
- visarga 8y agoThat's where Google and FB have an advantage. They track everyone's location and interests. They could probably do it.
- paganel 8y ago> That's where Google and FB have an advantage. They track everyone's location and interests I was thinking about this two summers ago when there was that migration “crisis” in Europe, i.e. that Facebook knew better than anyone else on the planet how many immigrants there were (give or take) and especially from where exactly they were coming (that was a very contentious point back then) based on their location data and on the location data of their friends and families left at home. Come to think of it, I bet they could also “guess” the general level of education for many of those immigrants, that was also a very, very hot topic back then.
- sitkack 8y agoIn the 90s in Seattle there were bumper stickers that read, "Artists are the shock troops of gentrification"
- Xcelerate 8y agoIt is well known that the stock market is extremely difficult to predict, because any model that has an advantage quickly loses that advantage once it is put into practice. Real estate, however, has not traditionally had the intense sort of algorithmic focus that the stock market has had. Are there still opportunities to profit based on obvious patterns, and if so, why hasn't this generally been done already? Lack of available of real estate data perhaps? I would think a hedge fund would have no problem contacting a few hundred MLS for the necessary listing data though.
- slededit 8y agoBack around 2012 or so I interviewed with a company doing just that to price mortgage backed securities. So it is being done.
- benatkin 8y agoThere are probably signs people are looking to move somewhere, like an increase in retail/dining activity, so it might be more like predicting who's going to have a baby [1] than predicting the stock market. 1: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2012/02/16/how-target-figured-out-a-teen-girl-was-pregnant-before-her-father-did/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2012/02/16/how-targ...
- someguydave 8y agoReal estate is very expensive to transact. Certainly one could not execute short term trading strategies like is common with securities markets.
- adrianN 8y agoDon't you usually start a derivative market if the transaction costs of the original market are too high?
- zwischenzug 8y agoDerivative of what, though? There's no index to track that people will agree on or can't be gamed.
- bencollier49 8y agoGiven that a bloke with a list of fried chicken shops and coffee houses can do it for London, I reckon the answer is 'yes'. https://medium.com/@Sam_Floy/how-to-know-if-where-you-live-is-up-and-coming-fried-chicken-vs-coffee-shops-546080119f98 https://medium.com/@Sam_Floy/how-to-know-if-where-you-live-i...
- zwischenzug 8y agoThat's funny - I literally couldn't find a coffee shop in Peckham yesterday while my kids were at the cinema. Plenty of lunatics, drug-takers, and drunks, though.
- goodmachine 8y agoSeriously? If you were at the Peckhamplex then you were 100 yards from three or four hipster joints, at least.
- zwischenzug 8y agoProbably made a mistake going to the high street.
- 14113 8y agoReally? There are at least two coffee places within ten metres of the train station on Rye Lane, right across from the Cinema. You're talking absolute rubbish.
- inferiorhuman 8y agoPeckham, home of the terminator[1]. 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMACpa_oXjk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMACpa_oXjk
- btbuildem 8y agoThat only works if your city is ethnically diverse.
- mrweasel 8y agoBased on Betteridge's law, I would say “no”. At least not reliably.
- bmurray7jhu 8y agoThe authors of the cited study posted their ipython notebook on github: https://github.com/jreades/urb-studies-predicting-gentrification/blob/master/08-Neighbourhood%20Prediction.ipynb https://github.com/jreades/urb-studies-predicting-gentrifica...
- Lio 8y agoPersonally I’m less interested in looking for neighbourhoods where gentrification is going on than I am to discover what makes places become “not sketchy”. What small changes influence the crime levels and feel of a place when walking around that could improve it for everyone living there? When those things improve house prices naturally rise.
- nkozyra 8y agoIsn't that effectively the same thing? The long tail of gentrification is rising prices and (somewhat) lowered crime. I've long suspected you can predict this with ML given the right features but also realized you don't really need any autonomous process, it's generally an understood pattern. Perhaps if you wanted to buy thousands of properties across the country. * I've long noticed that people in gentrified areas will accept higher crime rates not just because the inevitability of being right next to a not-yet-gentrified area, but because it makes their area feel more "real" or "gritty."
- kurtisc 8y ago'Walkability' is a concept that comes up on HN quite often. Things like awnings and doorways can make somewhere feel more comfortable to walk in and I guess that would make it feel less sketchy.