7 ms·

Investigating Jeanne Calment’s Longevity Record

108 points by nkurz 8y ago

jamisteven 8y ago
This is why science drives me mad sometimes, the premise of so many different theories in Longevity "based on science" having been rooted in "science" derived from this women, who may turn out to be this woman's daughter, mind blowing. And I can hear it now "Well technically the science itself was correct..."
- icebraining 8y ago
  Can you list these scientific theories based solely on evidence from the life of this woman?
- JohnJamesRambo 8y ago
  As a scientist myself, you don’t really want to see how the sausage is made for a lot of science. Which is why I don’t hold it to the almost religious level I see lots of modern people hold it to. Science is still made by humans and humans run a huge spectrum from imbecile to genius. We all work with idiots in our buildings that lie and twist facts or are just generally bad scientists. Your best bet is if the science is replicated in other labs. A great read is Feynman’s Cargo Cult Science essay, to think about how hard it is to design an experiment that answers exactly what you are asking as a scientist. http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm
bluedevil2k 8y ago
I had always found it fascinating/suspicious that she outlived the next closest long-lifers by so much. Beginning at age 105, there's a 50/50 chance you'll make it to your next birthday (1). So Jeanne was a super outlier in this model, a 2^17 outlier (1:131,072) 1 - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2018/06/28/new-study-questions-a-limit-to-the-human-life-span/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.bddf8960a83f https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2...
- mpweiher 8y ago
  On the other hand, with 6-7 Billion people, a 1:130K chance is not going to be much of a hindrance, statistically.
  - Majestic121 8y ago
    That's beginning at age 105, so it's closer to 300,000 people (316,600 people over 100 in 2012 according to Wikipedia)
    - mpweiher 8y ago
      Missed that, thanks! Still seems to be an expected value of 2?
      - bluedevil2k 8y ago
        If you just used the 50/50 method (which was only proven for 105-110), then you'd expect 2 of today's 105 year olds to make it to 122. But, Jeanne died some 20 years ago, when medicine wasn't where it is today, and she was humorously 105 in 1980!
  - ajross 8y ago
    Only if 130k of those 7B life to 105! (They don't)
  - pedrocr 8y ago
    This lists only 500k people 100+: https://www.populationpyramid.net/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/ But even at that scale you'd expect there to be one or two people reach that age and the article claims this case is actually well outside any of the statistical models. So the 50/50 statistic probably understates the odds as I'm sure those percentages keep getting worse every year.
    - bluedevil2k 8y ago
      Agreed, cause the article states the 50/50 statistic only really applies to ages 105-110. After that, I suspect they would start getting worse, but there's probably not enough of a sample size to provide an accurate estimate.
mpweiher 8y ago
Hmm...looks like a lot of seemingly miraculous longevity turns out to be...less than miraculous. First one I heard of were the Japanese, who actually weren't long-lived but scamming the state for pensions: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11258071 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11258071 And so of course the health benefits of the Japanese diet turned out to be, not as beneficial. Still delicious, though. Last I checked there were similar issues with the so-called Mediterranean diet, though I can't find the reference now. Sixth Sense, anyone?
ginko 8y ago
I would guess this would be relatively easy to check if you exhumed her and a few members of her family to do DNA checks.
- mabbo 8y ago
  After this long, would DNA be retrievable in sufficient quality that you could do DNA analysis of this kind?
  - paulpauper 8y ago
    considering DNA can be extracted from neanderthals, I think so
  - gwern 8y ago
    Absolutely. Forensics and archaeological DNA recovers DNA from hundreds or hundreds of thousands of years ago easily. The real question is whether the family would cooperate and provide or give permission for samples from themselves and Calment's corpse. It's easy to see why they might decide to ignore this and stonewall.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
mr_overalls 8y ago
> You see, there are Blue Zones where there are many centenarians, and the data about their lifestyle can probably explain their longevity. However, most of Russia is located in a totally different climate zone, and what is known about the life-extending lifestyles of, say, Mediterranean countries cannot be applied to our latitude. The book "Blue Zones" referenced nine lifestyle factors that were associated with longevity. They are: 1. Moderate, regular physical activity. 2. Life purpose. 3. Stress reduction. 4. Moderate caloric intake. 5. Plant-based diet. 6. Moderate alcohol intake, especially wine. 7. Engagement in spirituality or religion. 8. Engagement in family life. 9. Engagement in social life. I find it pretty incredible that a researcher would reject these very general principles out of hand, simply because Russia's landmass is located at higher latitudes.
- zeveb 8y ago
  > I find it pretty incredible that a researcher would reject these very general principles out of hand, simply because Russia's landmass is located at higher latitudes. I suspect that the article has its own motives, based on the odd statement you noticed as well as this line: >> In Russia, Valery Novoselov is mostly known for his studies of medical documents of historic persons such as Vladimir Lenin. His review of medical archives dedicated to shedding light on the real causes of death of this great Russian politician is ready There are many phrases one might apply to Lenin, but 'great politician' isn't one which leaps readily to mind.
- fouc 8y ago
  Those factors were picked from the lifestyles of the long-lived in the Mediterranean countries in the first place.
- chongli 8y ago
  6. Moderate alcohol intake, especially wine. The position that moderate alcohol consumption promotes health has been overturned [1]. Data now shows that the only safe level of alcohol consumption is zero. Every single drink increases your risks of alcohol-related disease. The previous data showing a benefit to moderate alcohol use may have been a result of some confounder such as social economic status or reverse causation (diseased people quit drinking). [1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)31310-2/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
fouc 8y ago
This was a well-written interview format. I quite enjoyed Valery Novoselov's speaking style.
learc83 8y ago
This is interesting, but I get the feeling that the investigator decided that his hypothesis was true and then went searching for proof. This is a very dangerous approach, particularly when it comes to history--it's very easy to cherry pick your supporting documents, and it's even easier to interpret events in a way that supports your narrative if that's your goal. It's also important to remember that none of this research has been reviewed yet.
ernesth 8y ago
> [Yvonne's] kid, by the way, was calling Jeanne “mamzanne”, that is, Mom Jeanne. Most french children call their grandmother mamie + something differentiating from their other grandmother. Mamie Jeanne? No child use mom + first name. > Arles was one of the biggest French communes at that time with 38 thousand people (even now, not every Moscow satellite city has that many people) Arles was and still is far from being one of the biggest french communes. It is not among the 100 most crowded cities in France. > Jeanne was the first (by birth date) validated supercentenarian in France and that she is also the most long-lived person in the world. It is a very unlikely combination of events from the point of view of statistics. Isn't it exactly as unlikely that the 1st is the most long-lived, as the 17th being the longest-lived? This hypothesis of Jeanne Calment dying in 1934 may be true, but this article does not really convince me.
- cortesoft 8y ago
  > Isn't it exactly as unlikely that the 1st is the most long-lived, as the 17th being the longest-lived? No, because lifespan is not some completely random thing. It is continually improving over time. This would be like if the fastest 100m time was set 30 years ago, and hasn’t been broken since. This would be very strange, since the record actually keeps improving over time. It is not impossible (the long jump record stood for many years) but is at least not probable.
  - Bartweiss 8y ago
    This is generally a good point, but I'm not entirely sure it applies to high-end outliers for aging? We've improved medicine in a lot of ways, but rising lifespans (even measured from adulthood) are almost entirely driven by preventing certain premature deaths and increasing life expectancy for other terminal conditions. Very elderly people have generally escaped a lot of common mortality risks already (heart disease onset is 85% by age 80 in the US, implying that someone who doesn't have it at age 100 isn't likely to). Meanwhile, they rarely benefit from our improving treatments for other risks - we can substantially improve life expectancy for even incurable cancers in adulthood, but centenarians can't tolerate the sort of aggressive treatments we use for that result. (Interestingly, I had thought Alzheimer's was similar to heart disease, but annual onset rates at 90+ are almost as high as at 65-89 combined - it appears to simply be a steadily rising risk. Of course, we can't treat it well and incidents rates haven't changed much, so it's not really a factor in which cohort should have the longest lifespans.) The best visualization I've found is a bit messy, but nicely breaks down life expectancy by age over time. Since 1850, 70-year-olds appear to have gained about 7 years of expectancy, and I'm guessing 100-year-olds have gained substantially less. https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Life-expectancy-by-age-in-the-UK-1700-to-2013.png https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Life-e...
chasingthewind 8y ago
It seems to me like the Sagan Standard ("extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence") [0] should be applied here but I'm not sure whether to apply it to the claims of Calment's longevity or this researcher :) [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sagan_standard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sagan_standard
lordnacho 8y ago
I'm not entirely convinced of the statistical argument. I mean outliers happen. Did Don Bradman cheat? I doubt it: https://www.statslife.org.uk/sports/1989-did-don-bradman-s-cricketing-genius-make-him-a-statistical-outlier https://www.statslife.org.uk/sports/1989-did-don-bradman-s-c... The guy was apparently an > 6 sigma (insert joke here) batter. As for how the outlier happens, it's pretty hard to make a case. If it were easy to bat 100 more people would have done it. Same goes with anything at the extremes of a distribution. Who's to say that whatever ageing process occurs in the body did not simply slow for JC? Any evidence to the contrary ("it can't happen") is supported by observations of averages. All you'd be saying is "we haven't seen this happen". Of course I'm not saying everything that's unlikely actually happened the way it was purported to. Put together with some of the circumstantial evidence, I might be convinced. The fact that there was a pension involved is certainly incentive.
- littlestymaar 8y ago
  The pension couldn't be an incentive in 1934 because it was contracted in 1965. The case of Bradman is really interesting, thanks.
gumby 8y ago
What great work. In addition I like the scientist's view of the result: "You see, the current buzz around longevity records can be easily distracting us from the goals that are truly important." The interviewer is looking for drama and moral clarity. The actual clarity is the scientist's interest in the larger, human, goal.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
apo 8y ago
The interview cites this passage from the 2007 book Insurance and Its Secrets: Everyone remembers Jeanne Calment, who has officially died at age 122 on August 4, 1997. It was said at the time that this lady had benefited from having a life annuity, which was true. This was paid by a large French company that was not happy at all with this exceptional longevity. The company was even more upset as it knew that it had been paying not Jeanne Calment, but her daughter. In reality, after the death of the real Jeanne Calment, her daughter who obviously was no longer a child, had taken her mother’s identity to keep receiving the annuity. The insurance company had discovered identity theft, but in agreement with – or on the demand of? – the public authorities, it had not wished to reveal the truth, given how much the character of the “grandmother of the French” had become legendary. It seems that any investigation into this case should involve the insurance company. It would be surprising if Valery Novoselov had not at least started interviewing those involved with the insurance company. Could it be that these investigations actually were made but turned up nothing to support the claim made in the book?
- fanfantm 8y ago
  However something from this book passage does not seem to fit: most sources indicate that the "viager" annuity started to be paid in 1965 (by a local notary, not by a large French company), while Yvonne (or Jeanne?)'s death was in 1934, so if fraud happened at that time it was not to keep receiving the annuity.
  - mahkeiro 8y ago
    Exactly the house was sold to a notary (which and this history was well known in France as he died a few years before her, and had to pay it for 32 years. Here an article from the main French economical newspaper in 1995 about it: https://www.lesechos.fr/27/12/1995/LesEchos/17052-109-ECH_l-acheteur-en-viager-de-la-maison-de-jeanne-calment-est-decede.htm https://www.lesechos.fr/27/12/1995/LesEchos/17052-109-ECH_l-...) This article contains so many basic error on know fact, like naming Arles as a big city which it is clearly not, that it question just how serious it really is.
jl6 8y ago
Am I the only one creeped out by the “interview” style where the interviewer is just facilitating the viewpoint of the investigator? Like it’s all a setup paid for by someone with an agenda? “I have a crazy friend who says it’s wrong to eat meat...”

108 points by nkurz 8y ago

This is why science drives me mad sometimes, the premise of so many different theories in Longevity "based on science" having been rooted in "science" derived from this women, who may turn out to be this woman's daughter, mind blowing. And I can hear it now "Well technically the science itself was correct..."

icebraining 8y ago
Can you list these scientific theories based solely on evidence from the life of this woman?
JohnJamesRambo 8y ago
As a scientist myself, you don’t really want to see how the sausage is made for a lot of science. Which is why I don’t hold it to the almost religious level I see lots of modern people hold it to. Science is still made by humans and humans run a huge spectrum from imbecile to genius. We all work with idiots in our buildings that lie and twist facts or are just generally bad scientists. Your best bet is if the science is replicated in other labs. A great read is Feynman’s Cargo Cult Science essay, to think about how hard it is to design an experiment that answers exactly what you are asking as a scientist. http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm

bluedevil2k 8y ago

I had always found it fascinating/suspicious that she outlived the next closest long-lifers by so much. Beginning at age 105, there's a 50/50 chance you'll make it to your next birthday (1). So Jeanne was a super outlier in this model, a 2^17 outlier (1:131,072) 1 - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2018/06/28/new-study-questions-a-limit-to-the-human-life-span/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.bddf8960a83f https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2...

mpweiher 8y ago
On the other hand, with 6-7 Billion people, a 1:130K chance is not going to be much of a hindrance, statistically.
- Majestic121 8y ago
  That's beginning at age 105, so it's closer to 300,000 people (316,600 people over 100 in 2012 according to Wikipedia)
  - mpweiher 8y ago
    Missed that, thanks! Still seems to be an expected value of 2?
    - bluedevil2k 8y ago
      If you just used the 50/50 method (which was only proven for 105-110), then you'd expect 2 of today's 105 year olds to make it to 122. But, Jeanne died some 20 years ago, when medicine wasn't where it is today, and she was humorously 105 in 1980!
- ajross 8y ago
  Only if 130k of those 7B life to 105! (They don't)
- pedrocr 8y ago
  This lists only 500k people 100+: https://www.populationpyramid.net/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/ But even at that scale you'd expect there to be one or two people reach that age and the article claims this case is actually well outside any of the statistical models. So the 50/50 statistic probably understates the odds as I'm sure those percentages keep getting worse every year.
  - bluedevil2k 8y ago
    Agreed, cause the article states the 50/50 statistic only really applies to ages 105-110. After that, I suspect they would start getting worse, but there's probably not enough of a sample size to provide an accurate estimate.

mpweiher 8y ago

Hmm...looks like a lot of seemingly miraculous longevity turns out to be...less than miraculous. First one I heard of were the Japanese, who actually weren't long-lived but scamming the state for pensions: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11258071 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11258071 And so of course the health benefits of the Japanese diet turned out to be, not as beneficial. Still delicious, though. Last I checked there were similar issues with the so-called Mediterranean diet, though I can't find the reference now. Sixth Sense, anyone?

ginko 8y ago

I would guess this would be relatively easy to check if you exhumed her and a few members of her family to do DNA checks.

mabbo 8y ago
After this long, would DNA be retrievable in sufficient quality that you could do DNA analysis of this kind?
- paulpauper 8y ago
  considering DNA can be extracted from neanderthals, I think so
- gwern 8y ago
  Absolutely. Forensics and archaeological DNA recovers DNA from hundreds or hundreds of thousands of years ago easily. The real question is whether the family would cooperate and provide or give permission for samples from themselves and Calment's corpse. It's easy to see why they might decide to ignore this and stonewall.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

mr_overalls 8y ago

> You see, there are Blue Zones where there are many centenarians, and the data about their lifestyle can probably explain their longevity. However, most of Russia is located in a totally different climate zone, and what is known about the life-extending lifestyles of, say, Mediterranean countries cannot be applied to our latitude. The book "Blue Zones" referenced nine lifestyle factors that were associated with longevity. They are: 1. Moderate, regular physical activity. 2. Life purpose. 3. Stress reduction. 4. Moderate caloric intake. 5. Plant-based diet. 6. Moderate alcohol intake, especially wine. 7. Engagement in spirituality or religion. 8. Engagement in family life. 9. Engagement in social life. I find it pretty incredible that a researcher would reject these very general principles out of hand, simply because Russia's landmass is located at higher latitudes.

zeveb 8y ago
> I find it pretty incredible that a researcher would reject these very general principles out of hand, simply because Russia's landmass is located at higher latitudes. I suspect that the article has its own motives, based on the odd statement you noticed as well as this line: >> In Russia, Valery Novoselov is mostly known for his studies of medical documents of historic persons such as Vladimir Lenin. His review of medical archives dedicated to shedding light on the real causes of death of this great Russian politician is ready There are many phrases one might apply to Lenin, but 'great politician' isn't one which leaps readily to mind.
fouc 8y ago
Those factors were picked from the lifestyles of the long-lived in the Mediterranean countries in the first place.
chongli 8y ago
6. Moderate alcohol intake, especially wine. The position that moderate alcohol consumption promotes health has been overturned [1]. Data now shows that the only safe level of alcohol consumption is zero. Every single drink increases your risks of alcohol-related disease. The previous data showing a benefit to moderate alcohol use may have been a result of some confounder such as social economic status or reverse causation (diseased people quit drinking). [1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)31310-2/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

fouc 8y ago

This was a well-written interview format. I quite enjoyed Valery Novoselov's speaking style.

learc83 8y ago

This is interesting, but I get the feeling that the investigator decided that his hypothesis was true and then went searching for proof. This is a very dangerous approach, particularly when it comes to history--it's very easy to cherry pick your supporting documents, and it's even easier to interpret events in a way that supports your narrative if that's your goal. It's also important to remember that none of this research has been reviewed yet.

ernesth 8y ago

> [Yvonne's] kid, by the way, was calling Jeanne “mamzanne”, that is, Mom Jeanne. Most french children call their grandmother mamie + something differentiating from their other grandmother. Mamie Jeanne? No child use mom + first name. > Arles was one of the biggest French communes at that time with 38 thousand people (even now, not every Moscow satellite city has that many people) Arles was and still is far from being one of the biggest french communes. It is not among the 100 most crowded cities in France. > Jeanne was the first (by birth date) validated supercentenarian in France and that she is also the most long-lived person in the world. It is a very unlikely combination of events from the point of view of statistics. Isn't it exactly as unlikely that the 1st is the most long-lived, as the 17th being the longest-lived? This hypothesis of Jeanne Calment dying in 1934 may be true, but this article does not really convince me.

cortesoft 8y ago
> Isn't it exactly as unlikely that the 1st is the most long-lived, as the 17th being the longest-lived? No, because lifespan is not some completely random thing. It is continually improving over time. This would be like if the fastest 100m time was set 30 years ago, and hasn’t been broken since. This would be very strange, since the record actually keeps improving over time. It is not impossible (the long jump record stood for many years) but is at least not probable.
- Bartweiss 8y ago
  This is generally a good point, but I'm not entirely sure it applies to high-end outliers for aging? We've improved medicine in a lot of ways, but rising lifespans (even measured from adulthood) are almost entirely driven by preventing certain premature deaths and increasing life expectancy for other terminal conditions. Very elderly people have generally escaped a lot of common mortality risks already (heart disease onset is 85% by age 80 in the US, implying that someone who doesn't have it at age 100 isn't likely to). Meanwhile, they rarely benefit from our improving treatments for other risks - we can substantially improve life expectancy for even incurable cancers in adulthood, but centenarians can't tolerate the sort of aggressive treatments we use for that result. (Interestingly, I had thought Alzheimer's was similar to heart disease, but annual onset rates at 90+ are almost as high as at 65-89 combined - it appears to simply be a steadily rising risk. Of course, we can't treat it well and incidents rates haven't changed much, so it's not really a factor in which cohort should have the longest lifespans.) The best visualization I've found is a bit messy, but nicely breaks down life expectancy by age over time. Since 1850, 70-year-olds appear to have gained about 7 years of expectancy, and I'm guessing 100-year-olds have gained substantially less. https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Life-expectancy-by-age-in-the-UK-1700-to-2013.png https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Life-e...

chasingthewind 8y ago

It seems to me like the Sagan Standard ("extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence") [0] should be applied here but I'm not sure whether to apply it to the claims of Calment's longevity or this researcher :) [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sagan_standard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sagan_standard

lordnacho 8y ago

I'm not entirely convinced of the statistical argument. I mean outliers happen. Did Don Bradman cheat? I doubt it: https://www.statslife.org.uk/sports/1989-did-don-bradman-s-cricketing-genius-make-him-a-statistical-outlier https://www.statslife.org.uk/sports/1989-did-don-bradman-s-c... The guy was apparently an > 6 sigma (insert joke here) batter. As for how the outlier happens, it's pretty hard to make a case. If it were easy to bat 100 more people would have done it. Same goes with anything at the extremes of a distribution. Who's to say that whatever ageing process occurs in the body did not simply slow for JC? Any evidence to the contrary ("it can't happen") is supported by observations of averages. All you'd be saying is "we haven't seen this happen". Of course I'm not saying everything that's unlikely actually happened the way it was purported to. Put together with some of the circumstantial evidence, I might be convinced. The fact that there was a pension involved is certainly incentive.

littlestymaar 8y ago
The pension couldn't be an incentive in 1934 because it was contracted in 1965. The case of Bradman is really interesting, thanks.

gumby 8y ago

What great work. In addition I like the scientist's view of the result: "You see, the current buzz around longevity records can be easily distracting us from the goals that are truly important." The interviewer is looking for drama and moral clarity. The actual clarity is the scientist's interest in the larger, human, goal.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

apo 8y ago

The interview cites this passage from the 2007 book Insurance and Its Secrets: Everyone remembers Jeanne Calment, who has officially died at age 122 on August 4, 1997. It was said at the time that this lady had benefited from having a life annuity, which was true. This was paid by a large French company that was not happy at all with this exceptional longevity. The company was even more upset as it knew that it had been paying not Jeanne Calment, but her daughter. In reality, after the death of the real Jeanne Calment, her daughter who obviously was no longer a child, had taken her mother’s identity to keep receiving the annuity. The insurance company had discovered identity theft, but in agreement with – or on the demand of? – the public authorities, it had not wished to reveal the truth, given how much the character of the “grandmother of the French” had become legendary. It seems that any investigation into this case should involve the insurance company. It would be surprising if Valery Novoselov had not at least started interviewing those involved with the insurance company. Could it be that these investigations actually were made but turned up nothing to support the claim made in the book?

fanfantm 8y ago
However something from this book passage does not seem to fit: most sources indicate that the "viager" annuity started to be paid in 1965 (by a local notary, not by a large French company), while Yvonne (or Jeanne?)'s death was in 1934, so if fraud happened at that time it was not to keep receiving the annuity.
- mahkeiro 8y ago
  Exactly the house was sold to a notary (which and this history was well known in France as he died a few years before her, and had to pay it for 32 years. Here an article from the main French economical newspaper in 1995 about it: https://www.lesechos.fr/27/12/1995/LesEchos/17052-109-ECH_l-acheteur-en-viager-de-la-maison-de-jeanne-calment-est-decede.htm https://www.lesechos.fr/27/12/1995/LesEchos/17052-109-ECH_l-...) This article contains so many basic error on know fact, like naming Arles as a big city which it is clearly not, that it question just how serious it really is.

jl6 8y ago

Am I the only one creeped out by the “interview” style where the interviewer is just facilitating the viewpoint of the investigator? Like it’s all a setup paid for by someone with an agenda? “I have a crazy friend who says it’s wrong to eat meat...”