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For the context, this was written at the time when there was still a lot of confusion on how to represent uncertainty. There were at least 3 different ideas bes

For the context, this was written at the time when there was still a lot of confusion on how to represent uncertainty. There were at least 3 different ideas besides using probabilities and in fact the probabilities were considered not good enough. Judea Pearl pioneered erasing this view by inventing Bayesian Networks. More here: https://ftp.cs.ucla.edu/pub/stat_ser/r476.pdf https://ftp.cs.ucla.edu/pub/stat_ser/r476.pdf

ikeboy 8y ago
I don't have anything to add but I'd like to point out the irony of serving a URL beginning with ftp over https
joe_the_user 8y ago
Ah, references "fuzzy logic". That was one system that really needed to go away. I actually took a course in multivalued logic at UCB in the 80s. Fuzzy logic was "kinda like probability but with no logical basis, just a cute name". That said, I think "quantitative measures of likelihood that we can't easily reduce to probabilities" deserve study. I mean, it seems like, in rough, "fuzzy" sort of way, neural network activations are such measures of likelihood and certain they are used.
- gowld 8y ago
  What do you mean by no logical basis? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_logic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_logic discusses axiomitizations.
  - joe_the_user 8y ago
    I don't mean to be negative here but you can axiomatize anything if "axiomatize" one just means "describe what you do". It took quite a while but Kolmogorov and company actually formalized what is really meant by a "random sequence". But now you have a strong description of the real world behaviors are expected asymptotically if a probability is assigned to a behavior. As far as I can tell, all that's being axiomatized here is how the arbitrary quantities people make up for the fuzzy logic of things get manipulated. IE, there's not description of the relation of fuzzy logic and "reality" (because if there were, it would map to either regular logic or probability).
- Jach 8y ago
  Fuzzy "logic" is best used when you take out all the references to logic and just think about fuzzy sets -- then it's just fuzzy set theory, which is useful when you need to model partial set membership. I enjoyed reading Probabilistic Logic Networks (https://www.amazon.com/Probabilistic-Logic-Networks-Comprehensive-Framework/dp/0387768718 https://www.amazon.com/Probabilistic-Logic-Networks-Comprehe...) as it introduces a possible framework to sanely deal with different kinds of truth values about different things which aren't necessarily a single number.
- dragonwriter 8y ago
  > Ah, references "fuzzy logic". That was one system that really needed to go away. AFAIK, fuzzy logic, and application in fuzzy control systems among other areas, is still a very active thing.

ikeboy 8y ago

I don't have anything to add but I'd like to point out the irony of serving a URL beginning with ftp over https

joe_the_user 8y ago

Ah, references "fuzzy logic". That was one system that really needed to go away. I actually took a course in multivalued logic at UCB in the 80s. Fuzzy logic was "kinda like probability but with no logical basis, just a cute name". That said, I think "quantitative measures of likelihood that we can't easily reduce to probabilities" deserve study. I mean, it seems like, in rough, "fuzzy" sort of way, neural network activations are such measures of likelihood and certain they are used.

gowld 8y ago
What do you mean by no logical basis? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_logic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuzzy_logic discusses axiomitizations.
- joe_the_user 8y ago
  I don't mean to be negative here but you can axiomatize anything if "axiomatize" one just means "describe what you do". It took quite a while but Kolmogorov and company actually formalized what is really meant by a "random sequence". But now you have a strong description of the real world behaviors are expected asymptotically if a probability is assigned to a behavior. As far as I can tell, all that's being axiomatized here is how the arbitrary quantities people make up for the fuzzy logic of things get manipulated. IE, there's not description of the relation of fuzzy logic and "reality" (because if there were, it would map to either regular logic or probability).
Jach 8y ago
Fuzzy "logic" is best used when you take out all the references to logic and just think about fuzzy sets -- then it's just fuzzy set theory, which is useful when you need to model partial set membership. I enjoyed reading Probabilistic Logic Networks (https://www.amazon.com/Probabilistic-Logic-Networks-Comprehensive-Framework/dp/0387768718 https://www.amazon.com/Probabilistic-Logic-Networks-Comprehe...) as it introduces a possible framework to sanely deal with different kinds of truth values about different things which aren't necessarily a single number.
dragonwriter 8y ago
> Ah, references "fuzzy logic". That was one system that really needed to go away. AFAIK, fuzzy logic, and application in fuzzy control systems among other areas, is still a very active thing.