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I always find cases like this really interesting, how predicting outcomes can lead to tons of success in markets. Political events like this are big money winne

I always find cases like this really interesting, how predicting outcomes can lead to tons of success in markets. Political events like this are big money winners if you can predict the answer. Same with elections themselves for the affects of the person's plans. Besides polling data, prediction markets always seem like the could be a legitimate way to guess results. I used to work at a place that ran those, but biggest problem is to make sure the members are committed to answering the questions and learning more about the situation. There's been proof that these cases can be successful. Another event that comes up is company's quarterly reports that lead to giant price changes in their stock instantly. There are "specialist" predictions out there, but having better guesses leads to straight money. Knowledge of those numbers would be huge for traders, and us non-traders alike. Finding some legal and respectable way to predict these big outcomes would be incredibly valuable. Then again, if there was a correct way to make predictions, we wouldn't be having these discussions.

lordnacho 8y ago
As someone who's stared at market news announcements for years, it's not that easy, even with the data. I've never traded on insider info (and neither should you!) but even when I had it, I didn't think it was that obvious which way things would go. Often the market moves the opposite way of what you'd think, given the news. Any these can be reasonable: "Rates went up, and that means firms will have a hard time borrowing, which lowers investment spending" "Rates went up, but the market (risk assets) also went up because it's a sign the economy is healthy" "Earnings were up, but people were hoping for a surprise" The other entertaining one is when a CEO gets fired because of bad performance, and the price shoots up. Oh, the ignominy.
- Sniperfish 8y ago
  Buy the rumor, sell the news
- soVeryTired 8y ago
  Don't forget "Rates went up, but the central bank struck a dovish tone so bonds rallied". Blegh.
soVeryTired 8y ago
The bookies in the UK were predicting a victory for remain at the time. What's more interesting, though, is that the majority of bets were for leave, but the bigger bets were for remain. The bigger bets tipped the bookies' odds two to one in favour of remain as far as I remember.

lordnacho 8y ago

As someone who's stared at market news announcements for years, it's not that easy, even with the data. I've never traded on insider info (and neither should you!) but even when I had it, I didn't think it was that obvious which way things would go. Often the market moves the opposite way of what you'd think, given the news. Any these can be reasonable: "Rates went up, and that means firms will have a hard time borrowing, which lowers investment spending" "Rates went up, but the market (risk assets) also went up because it's a sign the economy is healthy" "Earnings were up, but people were hoping for a surprise" The other entertaining one is when a CEO gets fired because of bad performance, and the price shoots up. Oh, the ignominy.

Sniperfish 8y ago
Buy the rumor, sell the news
soVeryTired 8y ago
Don't forget "Rates went up, but the central bank struck a dovish tone so bonds rallied". Blegh.

soVeryTired 8y ago

The bookies in the UK were predicting a victory for remain at the time. What's more interesting, though, is that the majority of bets were for leave, but the bigger bets were for remain. The bigger bets tipped the bookies' odds two to one in favour of remain as far as I remember.