6 ms·

It would be better just to build a Shenzen in the US.

by dqpb 8y ago

notduncansmith 8y ago
Now THERE’S an idea. What are the major hurdles to overcome in implementing this? EDIT: Looks like the efficiency comes at a high price.
- samstave 8y ago
  Relevant (reverse) HN-AMA: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18629299 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18629299 --- Welp, about 50 years of cheap, environmentally catastrophic manufacturing (lack of) regulations, a vast army of poor/slave-subsistence-level farmers who can CHEAPLY provide food - no IP laws, a mass ability to gather/import raw materials - hazardous working conditions, cancer, cancer, cancer - slaves, and a gumption of a population with a striving for life that is not nearly as lazy and entitled as anyone else on the planet. Just a start...
- ceejayoz 8y ago
  OHSA, intellectual property laws...
- dqpb 8y ago
  Convince the people with all the money that building a giant manufacturing center would have a favorable ROI.
  - StillBored 8y ago
    No, as much as I dislike Trump, a nice tariff could solve a lot of problems long term. Its after all how this country was built. Put in more economic terms, you should be taxing things you want to discourage. Taxing income/work, while providing free trade with locations that have lower tax structures _WILL_ force jobs and industries offshore. OTOH, a nice fat tariff on things you want to manufacture, and suddenly manufacturing them at home starts to make strong economic sense. Of course as evidence suggests that you also need a large enough market to assure that your not just paying 100x as much to support some inefficient factory.
    - kaitai 8y ago
      Or you just decide you don't need to manufacture that thing after all. There are a lot of situations where "redesign so it doesn't need that version of the part" is cheaper than "build a US factory, train workers."
    - pjc50 8y ago
      If tariffs worked on their own, Brazil would be an electronics powerhouse. https://thenextweb.com/la/2012/09/30/from-brazil-cost-brazil-profit-why-electronics-expensive-brazil/ https://thenextweb.com/la/2012/09/30/from-brazil-cost-brazil...
      - StillBored 8y ago
        The NAFTA market is literally 10x the size of Brazil. Its not the same thing. Worse, tariffs tend to work if your protecting an existing industry from dumping/etc, not so much if your trying to grow one.
      - erikpukinskis 8y ago
        You can’t really compare the US/EU/China to individual smaller countries. There’s a scale above which the economics are quite different.
- stupidbird 8y ago
  labor laws, wages, safety, regulation, cost of living
- chaostheory 8y ago
  Pollution. Regulation. Investors. Unions. https://www.popsci.com/america-before-epa-photos https://www.popsci.com/america-before-epa-photos
marcusjt 8y ago
”just"
- dqpb 8y ago
  It's not like we have to re-invent the industrial revolution, we just need to spend the money to set up shop.
  - nerfhammer 8y ago
    It's just that the West has decided that allowing cities to grow is a bad thing, and the exact opposite of that is what powers economic growth, in Shenzen and certainly in our own history as well.
    - Ma8ee 8y ago
      In what way has “the west” decided it is a bad thing to let cities grow?
51lver 8y ago
Perhaps it could be some kind of shack where radio components could be found... Really though I think fast shipping will suffice for most people. Once we get delivery down to under an hour, in city, with reasonable component prices, we should be able to source what we need easily enough. I'm imagining something like jimmyjohns meets sparkfun (and now I'm drooling).
- samstave 8y ago
  I have a theory about what killed the radio-shack star: PACKAGING. Fucking packaging kills "hobby" interests. Radio shack became "random aisle from fry's electronics" pretty easily. Fry's is complicit in the murder of radio shack -- but the fact that they individually began packaging everything and selling things as expensive individual components in blister/cardboard crap - rather than in a much more organic manner really limited the Hacker energy. They attempted to bolt themselves to the "charging cable industry" -- (which deserves its own place in tech hell) -- and that failed. They were then reduced to a charicature of themselves when they were selling 'MAKE::' kits... I lament for the sould of what Radio Shack once could have been...
  - ghaff 8y ago
    Radio Shack had an identity crisis for much of its history and going back to at least the 70s they were as much about selling mostly crappy audio, toys, etc. as they were about selling components. I suspect big box electronic retailers played as big a part in killing them as anything else. But there was also a period, during which Heathkits went away, when it became much more difficult to do interesting stuff as a casual electronics hobbyist at home. Things like Raspberry Pis, Arduinos, 3D printers, Linux, etc. arguably made a new generation of hardware hacking possible but those came later.
    - enobrev 8y ago
      Are you trying to say that the TRS-80 wasn't a top-of-the-line luxury computer?
trimbo 8y ago
Wisconsin is trying to do that and it's not going well. https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/29/18027032/foxconn-wisconsin-plant-jobs-deal-subsidy-governor-scott-walker https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/29/18027032/foxconn-wiscons...
- logfromblammo 8y ago
  That was a political boondoggle from the start. What Wisconsin was trying to do was to become as corrupt as Illinois, and that's going quite well indeed. Kenosha-Racine just did not have the number and kind of workers required for the original promises to hold water, and the subsequent revisions only got more ridiculous. For brainy, high-tech work, the only nearby choices are Madison and Chicago. It has always been hyperbole and lies, told to sway votes. The powers behind it didn't expect to lose their statewide offices this quickly, though, so I'm not sure if their plan for the Foxconn site is still viable.
sonnyblarney 8y ago
"It would be better just to build a Shenzen in the US" Probably not. Imagine if you went to a flea market, but instead of comic books, hot dogs and used sofas ... you found all sorts of cheap, exotic component parts. Anything. Everything. For 10's of cents each. I'm close with a team making a product, and there are a few 'custom-ish' things they need, like a tiny microcontroller with camera that does some very basic processing as a sub-module. In America - that's a big deal. Hire a team, get some researchers to consult, do some iterations yada yada. In China some guy in a ratty, dirty, poor little corner shop has it! For like 40 cents in units of ONE! There's a massive 'secondary industry' of people making 'not rocket science but not trivial' gadgetry very fast, and on the cheap that is not going to be duplicated anywhere. Add in the tons and tons of cheap labour, with few labour laws. Add in the 10 hours 7 day crazy work weeks. No - Shenzen will not be duplicated. That said - it may be possible to expand the Valley in a more 'automated' 'high end' way. For example: 3D printers that are more amenable to 'short production runs' instead of just prototypes. Low cost / fast turnaround injection moulding. Quick turn around on smaller components. This might make it better for American firms doing quality high tech to churn out faster prototypes, first production runs, and later automated large runs. Doing this would take some champion leaders, maybe Cisco, or Google or a few others setting up shop, proving the way for others to follow.
- alvern 8y ago
  For example: 3D printers that are more amenable to 'short production runs' instead of just prototypes. Low cost / fast turnaround injection moulding. Quick turn around on smaller components. This already exists in the North American market, I.E. Protolabs
  - sonnyblarney 8y ago
    Funny you should mention them I was literally speaking to them this week :) Protolabs is nothing special really. The tech everyone uses for 3D printing, for quick turnaround injection moulding ... it's mostly the same old stuff. 3D printing is only good for a few units, unless what your making is very small and very expensive. Custom moulding is still a big leap - and if there are any iterations (and there will be) it's not cheap. And all of the 'fine' stuff is still done by hand. So I see 3 roadblocks: 1) Rapid iteration and availability of component parts 2) True cheap way to get from 10 to 20000 units i.e. before true mass production 3) 'programmable robot hands' i.e. a very easy to program robot arm/hands that is nimble enough to fold and cut fabric, assemble arbitrary things, wipe/clean surfaces.
sambull 8y ago
Not really, we need to figure out how to stop making stuff and contract economically for our grand kids to have a chance
nickpsecurity 8y ago
I'm surprised nobody countered you on patent law immediately. Shenzhen's biggest advantage for a R&D guy like me is that nobody cares about patents. Just come up with ideas, copy ideas, remix, whatever... it doesn't matter because whoever has the best product for their market will make the money. It can also serve markets better when vendors with patents refuse to give customers what they want. The iPhone clones letting you swap your battery easily are a good example. Nice documentary on Shenzhen if you want to learn more about its history, culture, and advantages: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGJ5cZnoodY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGJ5cZnoodY In the U.S., you get this instead: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patent_troll https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patent_troll https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Corp._v._Motorola_Inc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Corp._v._Motorola_In.... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-27/oracle-wins-revival-of-billion-dollar-case-against-google https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-27/oracle-wi... https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2010/04/ibm-breaks-oss-patent-promise-targets-mainframe-emulator/ https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2010/04/ibm-b...
xmly 8y ago
And with all the pollutions?

It would be better just to build a Shenzen in the US.

by dqpb 8y ago

It would be better just to build a Shenzen in the US.

Now THERE’S an idea. What are the major hurdles to overcome in implementing this? EDIT: Looks like the efficiency comes at a high price.

samstave 8y ago
Relevant (reverse) HN-AMA: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18629299 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18629299 --- Welp, about 50 years of cheap, environmentally catastrophic manufacturing (lack of) regulations, a vast army of poor/slave-subsistence-level farmers who can CHEAPLY provide food - no IP laws, a mass ability to gather/import raw materials - hazardous working conditions, cancer, cancer, cancer - slaves, and a gumption of a population with a striving for life that is not nearly as lazy and entitled as anyone else on the planet. Just a start...
ceejayoz 8y ago
OHSA, intellectual property laws...
dqpb 8y ago
Convince the people with all the money that building a giant manufacturing center would have a favorable ROI.
- StillBored 8y ago
  No, as much as I dislike Trump, a nice tariff could solve a lot of problems long term. Its after all how this country was built. Put in more economic terms, you should be taxing things you want to discourage. Taxing income/work, while providing free trade with locations that have lower tax structures _WILL_ force jobs and industries offshore. OTOH, a nice fat tariff on things you want to manufacture, and suddenly manufacturing them at home starts to make strong economic sense. Of course as evidence suggests that you also need a large enough market to assure that your not just paying 100x as much to support some inefficient factory.
  - kaitai 8y ago
    Or you just decide you don't need to manufacture that thing after all. There are a lot of situations where "redesign so it doesn't need that version of the part" is cheaper than "build a US factory, train workers."
  - pjc50 8y ago
    If tariffs worked on their own, Brazil would be an electronics powerhouse. https://thenextweb.com/la/2012/09/30/from-brazil-cost-brazil-profit-why-electronics-expensive-brazil/ https://thenextweb.com/la/2012/09/30/from-brazil-cost-brazil...
    - StillBored 8y ago
      The NAFTA market is literally 10x the size of Brazil. Its not the same thing. Worse, tariffs tend to work if your protecting an existing industry from dumping/etc, not so much if your trying to grow one.
    - erikpukinskis 8y ago
      You can’t really compare the US/EU/China to individual smaller countries. There’s a scale above which the economics are quite different.
stupidbird 8y ago
labor laws, wages, safety, regulation, cost of living
chaostheory 8y ago
Pollution. Regulation. Investors. Unions. https://www.popsci.com/america-before-epa-photos https://www.popsci.com/america-before-epa-photos

marcusjt 8y ago

”just"

dqpb 8y ago
It's not like we have to re-invent the industrial revolution, we just need to spend the money to set up shop.
- nerfhammer 8y ago
  It's just that the West has decided that allowing cities to grow is a bad thing, and the exact opposite of that is what powers economic growth, in Shenzen and certainly in our own history as well.
  - Ma8ee 8y ago
    In what way has “the west” decided it is a bad thing to let cities grow?

51lver 8y ago

Perhaps it could be some kind of shack where radio components could be found... Really though I think fast shipping will suffice for most people. Once we get delivery down to under an hour, in city, with reasonable component prices, we should be able to source what we need easily enough. I'm imagining something like jimmyjohns meets sparkfun (and now I'm drooling).

samstave 8y ago
I have a theory about what killed the radio-shack star: PACKAGING. Fucking packaging kills "hobby" interests. Radio shack became "random aisle from fry's electronics" pretty easily. Fry's is complicit in the murder of radio shack -- but the fact that they individually began packaging everything and selling things as expensive individual components in blister/cardboard crap - rather than in a much more organic manner really limited the Hacker energy. They attempted to bolt themselves to the "charging cable industry" -- (which deserves its own place in tech hell) -- and that failed. They were then reduced to a charicature of themselves when they were selling 'MAKE::' kits... I lament for the sould of what Radio Shack once could have been...
- ghaff 8y ago
  Radio Shack had an identity crisis for much of its history and going back to at least the 70s they were as much about selling mostly crappy audio, toys, etc. as they were about selling components. I suspect big box electronic retailers played as big a part in killing them as anything else. But there was also a period, during which Heathkits went away, when it became much more difficult to do interesting stuff as a casual electronics hobbyist at home. Things like Raspberry Pis, Arduinos, 3D printers, Linux, etc. arguably made a new generation of hardware hacking possible but those came later.
  - enobrev 8y ago
    Are you trying to say that the TRS-80 wasn't a top-of-the-line luxury computer?

trimbo 8y ago

Wisconsin is trying to do that and it's not going well. https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/29/18027032/foxconn-wisconsin-plant-jobs-deal-subsidy-governor-scott-walker https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/29/18027032/foxconn-wiscons...

logfromblammo 8y ago
That was a political boondoggle from the start. What Wisconsin was trying to do was to become as corrupt as Illinois, and that's going quite well indeed. Kenosha-Racine just did not have the number and kind of workers required for the original promises to hold water, and the subsequent revisions only got more ridiculous. For brainy, high-tech work, the only nearby choices are Madison and Chicago. It has always been hyperbole and lies, told to sway votes. The powers behind it didn't expect to lose their statewide offices this quickly, though, so I'm not sure if their plan for the Foxconn site is still viable.

sonnyblarney 8y ago

"It would be better just to build a Shenzen in the US" Probably not. Imagine if you went to a flea market, but instead of comic books, hot dogs and used sofas ... you found all sorts of cheap, exotic component parts. Anything. Everything. For 10's of cents each. I'm close with a team making a product, and there are a few 'custom-ish' things they need, like a tiny microcontroller with camera that does some very basic processing as a sub-module. In America - that's a big deal. Hire a team, get some researchers to consult, do some iterations yada yada. In China some guy in a ratty, dirty, poor little corner shop has it! For like 40 cents in units of ONE! There's a massive 'secondary industry' of people making 'not rocket science but not trivial' gadgetry very fast, and on the cheap that is not going to be duplicated anywhere. Add in the tons and tons of cheap labour, with few labour laws. Add in the 10 hours 7 day crazy work weeks. No - Shenzen will not be duplicated. That said - it may be possible to expand the Valley in a more 'automated' 'high end' way. For example: 3D printers that are more amenable to 'short production runs' instead of just prototypes. Low cost / fast turnaround injection moulding. Quick turn around on smaller components. This might make it better for American firms doing quality high tech to churn out faster prototypes, first production runs, and later automated large runs. Doing this would take some champion leaders, maybe Cisco, or Google or a few others setting up shop, proving the way for others to follow.

alvern 8y ago
For example: 3D printers that are more amenable to 'short production runs' instead of just prototypes. Low cost / fast turnaround injection moulding. Quick turn around on smaller components. This already exists in the North American market, I.E. Protolabs
- sonnyblarney 8y ago
  Funny you should mention them I was literally speaking to them this week :) Protolabs is nothing special really. The tech everyone uses for 3D printing, for quick turnaround injection moulding ... it's mostly the same old stuff. 3D printing is only good for a few units, unless what your making is very small and very expensive. Custom moulding is still a big leap - and if there are any iterations (and there will be) it's not cheap. And all of the 'fine' stuff is still done by hand. So I see 3 roadblocks: 1) Rapid iteration and availability of component parts 2) True cheap way to get from 10 to 20000 units i.e. before true mass production 3) 'programmable robot hands' i.e. a very easy to program robot arm/hands that is nimble enough to fold and cut fabric, assemble arbitrary things, wipe/clean surfaces.

sambull 8y ago

Not really, we need to figure out how to stop making stuff and contract economically for our grand kids to have a chance

nickpsecurity 8y ago

I'm surprised nobody countered you on patent law immediately. Shenzhen's biggest advantage for a R&D guy like me is that nobody cares about patents. Just come up with ideas, copy ideas, remix, whatever... it doesn't matter because whoever has the best product for their market will make the money. It can also serve markets better when vendors with patents refuse to give customers what they want. The iPhone clones letting you swap your battery easily are a good example. Nice documentary on Shenzhen if you want to learn more about its history, culture, and advantages: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGJ5cZnoodY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGJ5cZnoodY In the U.S., you get this instead: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patent_troll https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patent_troll https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Corp._v._Motorola_Inc https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Corp._v._Motorola_In.... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-27/oracle-wins-revival-of-billion-dollar-case-against-google https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-27/oracle-wi... https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2010/04/ibm-breaks-oss-patent-promise-targets-mainframe-emulator/ https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2010/04/ibm-b...

xmly 8y ago

And with all the pollutions?