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Reading Michael Pillsbury will help you understand actions by the US admin against China. His book, the hundred year marathon, states the theory it subscribes t

by adgjl 8y ago

Reading Michael Pillsbury will help you understand actions by the US admin against China. His book, the hundred year marathon, states the theory it subscribes to according to Bloomberg and Politico (I dont know how true the theory is and some China experts disagree with the book) "But what if the “China Dream” is to replace us, just as America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot? Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed national security documents, The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China’s secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world’s dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic. Michael Pillsbury, a fluent Mandarin speaker who has served in senior national security positions in the U.S. government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, draws on his decades of contact with the “hawks” in China’s military and intelligence agencies and translates their documents, speeches, and books to show how the teachings of traditional Chinese statecraft underpin their actions. " https://thehundredyearmarathon.com/ https://thehundredyearmarathon.com/ http://www.michaelpillsbury.net/ http://www.michaelpillsbury.net/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-27/trump-identifies-the-leading-authority-on-china-who-is-he https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-27/trump-ide... https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/30/trump-china-xi-jinping-g20-michael-pillsbury-1034610 https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/30/trump-china-xi-jin... Competition to usd, Petroyuan is coming. "The Rise of the “Petroyuan” For the past decade, China’s strategy for internationalizing the renminbi has involved greater reliance on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights as an alternative international reserve currency. But the launch of renminbi-denominated oil trading this year suggests that China will now pursue de-dollarization head-on." https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rise-of-petroyuan-challenges-dollar-hegemony-by-john-a--mathews-and-mark-selden-1-2018-12 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rise-of-petroyu...

euroclydon 8y ago
If that's the case (which clearly it is), then limiting immigration is a bad move. Historically, the most powerful nations have been those with a free-wheeling economy and open/liberal attitudes. The U.S. needs to continue to attract the world's bright, ambitious, and hard-working people. Now, I don't think the U.S. can afford to provide much of a safety net, in regards to basic income and healthcare if it's going to have open borders and a great deal of economic freedom. It will be expensive enough just to deal with the enviornmental problems of a dynamic economy.
est 8y ago
China's ambition is to "rejuvenate the nation" to its past glory. What kind of glory? Who knows. Certainly it's not about simply replacing the USA. China has no wish policing the world. (Maybe dicking around but certainly not busy installing democracy everywhere) The reason China appears to acting against US is because it looks like the biggest abstacle for China's development is the island chains and the technological gap. Chinese are somehow extremely affirmative of their belief and power structure.
- karmasimida 8y ago
  > What kind of glory? The envy of the world.
  - est 8y ago
    lol right. Even the pretended envy would do.
- dalbasal 8y ago
  Very likely China will view the US' "world police" strategy the same way the US viewed the later period British Empire. They'll dabble, because of the perceived prestige but probably not really put weight behind it. They'll find something that works (maybe this new silk road) and then rinse-repeat until it doesn't. In time, china will have their own disfunctional, sprawling global dominance machinery..
protonfish 8y ago
They can have whatever plans they want, it doesn't mean they have a remote chance of success. The natural resource of the information age is not iron or oil, but a populace of free thinkers who are unafraid to fail while working outside of cultural norms. Why does the US dominate the Internet? It's not because our 1s and 0s are better quality, or our technology education is superior or even that we have better funding for tech (it costs almost nothing to create a web site except time, desire and expertise.) It's our culture: we value the pioneer spirit. New frontiers are dove into head first. China's recent successes can be attributed to intellectual theft from innovative cultures, and brutal oppression of their own people. This does not scale. Until they free the minds of their populace, they will never be able to globally complete in science and technology.
- rorykoehler 8y ago
  People have been saying China haven't a hope in succeeding since the 80s yet here we are. Smashing everyone out of the water with ease. Doing the unthinkable as a matter of fact. They play to win and they're good at it.
  - protonfish 8y ago
    Yes, it's that attitude that's the problem. Not all problems can be solved with tanks. And they are getting worse, not better, no matter what their propaganda shills claim.
  - krapp 8y ago
    Other than Japanese fishing vessels, who has China been "smashing out of the water with ease?"
    - onemoresoop 8y ago
      World's expectations!
  - rellui 8y ago
    The thing is back in the 80's, China was starting from a low point. It's easy to catch up which is what they've done but like the original poster said, it's much tougher to take the lead position. I agree with him that the Chinese culture makes it harder to innovate.
bilbo0s 8y ago
>what if the “China Dream” is to replace us, just as America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot?... Devil's Advocate I know, but what would be so bad about this? Our position, considering the world is now multi-polar, is really more of a predicament than a privilege. Why would we fight them replacing us? (Or rather, I suppose game theoretically it would be best to make a show of fighting it, and pretend to regret losing it. A la Huck Finn and whitewashing fences.) I mean, my concern is that they don't WANT to replace us. Which, to my mind, is worse for us.
- EGreg 8y ago
  I was also wondering, what is so bad about being the consumer nation, when our currency is in great demand around the world? In some weird way, the US has made the dollar itself a sought-after commodity, that is super easy to generate and sell to the rest of the world. An amazing deal, really.
  - bilbo0s 8y ago
    Yeah. That's why I'm trying to figure out why would even fight China trying to replace us? Surely the bigger issue would be if they only wished to sit back and make money for China without helping anyone else do anything?
    - EGreg 8y ago
      a bit tongue in cheek... It’s a bit like men being upset that feminism has led to women doing more work building careers and earning more money. Male lions sit around and have intercourse while the lionesses hunt. Maybe that is the future for humans too? I don’t actually believe this, I think both sexes should scale down their devotion to the corporate world and focus instead on their families and other pursuits with a UBI. Robots will pick up the slack eventually.
      - bilbo0s 8y ago
        I know it's off topic, but I agree with this as well. Robots really are the only viable way forward. The idea that we can keep increasing production, but somehow force companies to continue to hire all kinds of employees at wages that support middle class lifestyles is fanciful in the extreme. I'm not sure why politicians keep putting that idea forward as viable? It's directly contradictory to the fundamentals of economics.
iliketosleep 8y ago
A Chinese national was talking about this 100 year plan to me just the other day. It's certainly no secret or just a theory. The Chinese Dream is all about "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation". This isn't explicitly about overtaking the US, it's more about China taking what it considers to be its rightful place in the world - and that certainly isn't second place. In my view, it's only rational that this would be their goal. China is definitely no friend of the US, nor an enemy (at this point), but definitely a genuine competitor. If the US does not recognize this and act accordingly, China will indeed replace it as the world superpower. If you're Chinese, this would be great news, if you're American it would be concerning. It's always going to be bad news for one of the parties due to the conflicting ideologies.
- yodsanklai 8y ago
  > If you're Chinese, this would be great news, if you're American it would be concerning. What if you're not American nor Chinese?
  - axelrosen 8y ago
    Generally going to face a similar fate as Americans. With exception of a few sanctioned countries everyone can participate economically and legally in the US subject to the same laws.
  - wybiral 8y ago
    Pick a side to bet on.
  - bilbo0s 8y ago
    If you're not American or Chinese... And America and China really do want to both be the lone superpower. (I'm just not convinced of this premise by the way, but let's assume it's true)... Then the rational thing for you to do is look back on the past, what? 70 or so years and ask yourself has it been good for you or bad for you? That should give you a pretty good idea of which nation you'd be best off with as the super-power. Then kick back, grab some popcorn, and hope that your guy wins. I mean, if you're not American or Chinese... it's easy.
bchjam 8y ago
The history of reserve currencies suggests a ~100 year arc of dominance, and the US is at the end of that line. https://azizonomics.com/2012/01/04/a-history-of-reserve-currencies-in-one-graph/ https://azizonomics.com/2012/01/04/a-history-of-reserve-curr...
- JumpCrisscross 8y ago
  > The history of reserve currencies suggests a ~100 year arc of dominance You’re extrapolating from a 200-year history with N=2.
- pesmhey 8y ago
  Those are all western countries. Do you think Americans could be amenable to a European-based reserve currency? They share our values.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - krapp 8y ago
    >Do you think Americans could be amenable to a European-based reserve currency? Culturally, no. Americans would consider it an attack on their sovereignty. It would be a tough sell in anything like the current political climate.
gwbas1c 8y ago
> America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot Uhm, our dominance has a lot to do with WWII. Our economy boomed while Europe, including the UK, rebuilt itself. So we definitely fired lots of shots to get on top, but we can probably assume those shots are defensive.
cylinder 8y ago
Wow people other than Americans want to succeed and compete. This is devastating news /s Perhaps Americans should stop blaming others and look inwards. Break up all the corporate monopolies and duopolies to trigger innovation again. Build functional affordable sustainable cities. Switch to renewable power as soon as possible. Welcome the brightest and most motivated people instead of banning them from the country. Invest your trillions of borrowed money into infrastructure and the health of your population instead of killing civilians abroad for no reason. Do all these things and more and America will succeed and people will always want the USD. Be humble and competitive rather than arrogant and convinced of your own exceptionalism on the basis of mere existence. But nah, rather sit in front of the TV and yell about China.
- zabana 8y ago
  I find the intensity of the anti China sentiment in this forum to be quite puzzling to be honest. > Do all these things and more and America will succeed and people will always want the USD. From my limited understanding of the issue (emphasis on "limited"), it seems that Most countries in the world don't want the USD to be their currency of reference but are forced to out of fear of being invaded. I may be wrong but from the oustide looking in it seems to me that a lot of people in the US live in denial and don't necessarily want to come to terms with the fact that the show is almost over.
coldtea 8y ago
>Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed national security documents, The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China’s secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world’s dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic. Why would it have to be a "secret strategy"? Of course they'd like to replace the US as the world's dominant power...

by adgjl 8y ago

euroclydon 8y ago

If that's the case (which clearly it is), then limiting immigration is a bad move. Historically, the most powerful nations have been those with a free-wheeling economy and open/liberal attitudes. The U.S. needs to continue to attract the world's bright, ambitious, and hard-working people. Now, I don't think the U.S. can afford to provide much of a safety net, in regards to basic income and healthcare if it's going to have open borders and a great deal of economic freedom. It will be expensive enough just to deal with the enviornmental problems of a dynamic economy.

est 8y ago

China's ambition is to "rejuvenate the nation" to its past glory. What kind of glory? Who knows. Certainly it's not about simply replacing the USA. China has no wish policing the world. (Maybe dicking around but certainly not busy installing democracy everywhere) The reason China appears to acting against US is because it looks like the biggest abstacle for China's development is the island chains and the technological gap. Chinese are somehow extremely affirmative of their belief and power structure.

karmasimida 8y ago
> What kind of glory? The envy of the world.
- est 8y ago
  lol right. Even the pretended envy would do.
dalbasal 8y ago
Very likely China will view the US' "world police" strategy the same way the US viewed the later period British Empire. They'll dabble, because of the perceived prestige but probably not really put weight behind it. They'll find something that works (maybe this new silk road) and then rinse-repeat until it doesn't. In time, china will have their own disfunctional, sprawling global dominance machinery..

protonfish 8y ago

They can have whatever plans they want, it doesn't mean they have a remote chance of success. The natural resource of the information age is not iron or oil, but a populace of free thinkers who are unafraid to fail while working outside of cultural norms. Why does the US dominate the Internet? It's not because our 1s and 0s are better quality, or our technology education is superior or even that we have better funding for tech (it costs almost nothing to create a web site except time, desire and expertise.) It's our culture: we value the pioneer spirit. New frontiers are dove into head first. China's recent successes can be attributed to intellectual theft from innovative cultures, and brutal oppression of their own people. This does not scale. Until they free the minds of their populace, they will never be able to globally complete in science and technology.

rorykoehler 8y ago
People have been saying China haven't a hope in succeeding since the 80s yet here we are. Smashing everyone out of the water with ease. Doing the unthinkable as a matter of fact. They play to win and they're good at it.
- protonfish 8y ago
  Yes, it's that attitude that's the problem. Not all problems can be solved with tanks. And they are getting worse, not better, no matter what their propaganda shills claim.
- krapp 8y ago
  Other than Japanese fishing vessels, who has China been "smashing out of the water with ease?"
  - onemoresoop 8y ago
    World's expectations!
- rellui 8y ago
  The thing is back in the 80's, China was starting from a low point. It's easy to catch up which is what they've done but like the original poster said, it's much tougher to take the lead position. I agree with him that the Chinese culture makes it harder to innovate.

bilbo0s 8y ago

>what if the “China Dream” is to replace us, just as America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot?... Devil's Advocate I know, but what would be so bad about this? Our position, considering the world is now multi-polar, is really more of a predicament than a privilege. Why would we fight them replacing us? (Or rather, I suppose game theoretically it would be best to make a show of fighting it, and pretend to regret losing it. A la Huck Finn and whitewashing fences.) I mean, my concern is that they don't WANT to replace us. Which, to my mind, is worse for us.

EGreg 8y ago
I was also wondering, what is so bad about being the consumer nation, when our currency is in great demand around the world? In some weird way, the US has made the dollar itself a sought-after commodity, that is super easy to generate and sell to the rest of the world. An amazing deal, really.
- bilbo0s 8y ago
  Yeah. That's why I'm trying to figure out why would even fight China trying to replace us? Surely the bigger issue would be if they only wished to sit back and make money for China without helping anyone else do anything?
  - EGreg 8y ago
    a bit tongue in cheek... It’s a bit like men being upset that feminism has led to women doing more work building careers and earning more money. Male lions sit around and have intercourse while the lionesses hunt. Maybe that is the future for humans too? I don’t actually believe this, I think both sexes should scale down their devotion to the corporate world and focus instead on their families and other pursuits with a UBI. Robots will pick up the slack eventually.
    - bilbo0s 8y ago
      I know it's off topic, but I agree with this as well. Robots really are the only viable way forward. The idea that we can keep increasing production, but somehow force companies to continue to hire all kinds of employees at wages that support middle class lifestyles is fanciful in the extreme. I'm not sure why politicians keep putting that idea forward as viable? It's directly contradictory to the fundamentals of economics.

iliketosleep 8y ago

A Chinese national was talking about this 100 year plan to me just the other day. It's certainly no secret or just a theory. The Chinese Dream is all about "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation". This isn't explicitly about overtaking the US, it's more about China taking what it considers to be its rightful place in the world - and that certainly isn't second place. In my view, it's only rational that this would be their goal. China is definitely no friend of the US, nor an enemy (at this point), but definitely a genuine competitor. If the US does not recognize this and act accordingly, China will indeed replace it as the world superpower. If you're Chinese, this would be great news, if you're American it would be concerning. It's always going to be bad news for one of the parties due to the conflicting ideologies.

yodsanklai 8y ago
> If you're Chinese, this would be great news, if you're American it would be concerning. What if you're not American nor Chinese?
- axelrosen 8y ago
  Generally going to face a similar fate as Americans. With exception of a few sanctioned countries everyone can participate economically and legally in the US subject to the same laws.
- wybiral 8y ago
  Pick a side to bet on.
- bilbo0s 8y ago
  If you're not American or Chinese... And America and China really do want to both be the lone superpower. (I'm just not convinced of this premise by the way, but let's assume it's true)... Then the rational thing for you to do is look back on the past, what? 70 or so years and ask yourself has it been good for you or bad for you? That should give you a pretty good idea of which nation you'd be best off with as the super-power. Then kick back, grab some popcorn, and hope that your guy wins. I mean, if you're not American or Chinese... it's easy.

bchjam 8y ago

The history of reserve currencies suggests a ~100 year arc of dominance, and the US is at the end of that line. https://azizonomics.com/2012/01/04/a-history-of-reserve-currencies-in-one-graph/ https://azizonomics.com/2012/01/04/a-history-of-reserve-curr...

JumpCrisscross 8y ago
> The history of reserve currencies suggests a ~100 year arc of dominance You’re extrapolating from a 200-year history with N=2.
pesmhey 8y ago
Those are all western countries. Do you think Americans could be amenable to a European-based reserve currency? They share our values.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- krapp 8y ago
  >Do you think Americans could be amenable to a European-based reserve currency? Culturally, no. Americans would consider it an attack on their sovereignty. It would be a tough sell in anything like the current political climate.

gwbas1c 8y ago

> America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot Uhm, our dominance has a lot to do with WWII. Our economy boomed while Europe, including the UK, rebuilt itself. So we definitely fired lots of shots to get on top, but we can probably assume those shots are defensive.

cylinder 8y ago

Wow people other than Americans want to succeed and compete. This is devastating news /s Perhaps Americans should stop blaming others and look inwards. Break up all the corporate monopolies and duopolies to trigger innovation again. Build functional affordable sustainable cities. Switch to renewable power as soon as possible. Welcome the brightest and most motivated people instead of banning them from the country. Invest your trillions of borrowed money into infrastructure and the health of your population instead of killing civilians abroad for no reason. Do all these things and more and America will succeed and people will always want the USD. Be humble and competitive rather than arrogant and convinced of your own exceptionalism on the basis of mere existence. But nah, rather sit in front of the TV and yell about China.

zabana 8y ago
I find the intensity of the anti China sentiment in this forum to be quite puzzling to be honest. > Do all these things and more and America will succeed and people will always want the USD. From my limited understanding of the issue (emphasis on "limited"), it seems that Most countries in the world don't want the USD to be their currency of reference but are forced to out of fear of being invaded. I may be wrong but from the oustide looking in it seems to me that a lot of people in the US live in denial and don't necessarily want to come to terms with the fact that the show is almost over.

coldtea 8y ago

>Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed national security documents, The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China’s secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world’s dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic. Why would it have to be a "secret strategy"? Of course they'd like to replace the US as the world's dominant power...