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We are missing mostly production capacity. Also - what is the longevity of the battety? It may break even in two years time but if cells need to be recycled at

We are missing mostly production capacity. Also - what is the longevity of the battety? It may break even in two years time but if cells need to be recycled at the fourth year it may not be as good as it looks like.

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
URSpider94 8y ago
Even if it is scrapped after four years, if it keeps generating this kind of savings for that period, it’s still a 600% return on capital. Turning $40MM today to $240MM 4 years from now is a deal any business would take in a heartbeat.
- benj111 8y ago
  I think your maths is off. $40m * 4 = $160m $240m / $40m = 6 years Edit: Mixed up cost and income?
SEJeff 8y ago
Tesla gives their powerpacks a 10 year full warranty but projects a 15 year lifespan.
mikeash 8y ago
My car is almost four years old and its battery has lost about 1% capacity. These things don’t wear out that quickly.
- ams6110 8y ago
  That is good to hear as I typically only consider used cars and other than range, concerns about how the battery capacity holds up long term have kept me from really considering EVs. What do you drive? Tesla? Leaf? Something else?
  - esmi 8y ago
    Not sure what the parent drives but there are a number of variables to consider, for example with Tesla supercharing often will degrade the battery faster as will charing it in trip mode for the same number of miles driven, but there is a good amount of data out there for this car. https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1110149_tesla-model-s-battery-life-what-the-data-show-so-far https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1110149_tesla-model-s-b... "But, overall, the data offer some basis for confidence that a Tesla Model S will lose—on average—less than 15 percent of its battery capacity over the average 150,000-mile (250,000-km) life of a vehicle."
  - searine 8y ago
    I have a 2011 volt and have had negligible degradation. Thats an N of 1 but from GMs data, degradation hasn't been an issue in volts.
  - mikeash 8y ago
    It’s a Model S 85 with not quite 60,000 miles. From what I hear from other owners, this is slightly better than average but not much. I haven’t done anything special to treat it well, either. I charge it to 90% nightly (the default), charge to 100% before long trips, and have used Superchargers for maybe 20% of those miles.
- mschuster91 8y ago
  > My car is almost four years old and its battery has lost about 1% capacity. These things don’t wear out that quickly. Probably because Tesla undersells their batteries. During hurricanes or other disasters Tesla routinely unlocks the software limit, allowing customers more range (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-unlocks-full-battery-capacity-free-supercharging-hurricane-michael/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-unlocks-full-battery-capacit...). It's the same with HDDs and SSDs, which always carry a decent safety margin to account for media wear.
  - mikeash 8y ago
    Only certain models are software limited, and the 85 isn’t one of those. They actually substantially overstated the capacity: the 85 means 85kWh, but the actual usable capacity is only about 77.5kWh. (https://electrek.co/2016/12/14/tesla-battery-capacity/ https://electrek.co/2016/12/14/tesla-battery-capacity/)
    - rightbyte 8y ago
      The SoC window is not 0 to 100%, it's might be eg. 15 - 75 % or something. That's also why you don't notice battery degradation, since the window might be moving (keeping constant energy limits for 0 and 100% charged). For kWh capacity it's just a matter of counting the cells. Actual kWh will vary abit by measuring technique but I assume there is a way to drain the nominal Wh:s from them.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

URSpider94 8y ago

Even if it is scrapped after four years, if it keeps generating this kind of savings for that period, it’s still a 600% return on capital. Turning $40MM today to $240MM 4 years from now is a deal any business would take in a heartbeat.

benj111 8y ago
I think your maths is off. $40m * 4 = $160m $240m / $40m = 6 years Edit: Mixed up cost and income?

SEJeff 8y ago

Tesla gives their powerpacks a 10 year full warranty but projects a 15 year lifespan.

mikeash 8y ago

My car is almost four years old and its battery has lost about 1% capacity. These things don’t wear out that quickly.

ams6110 8y ago
That is good to hear as I typically only consider used cars and other than range, concerns about how the battery capacity holds up long term have kept me from really considering EVs. What do you drive? Tesla? Leaf? Something else?
- esmi 8y ago
  Not sure what the parent drives but there are a number of variables to consider, for example with Tesla supercharing often will degrade the battery faster as will charing it in trip mode for the same number of miles driven, but there is a good amount of data out there for this car. https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1110149_tesla-model-s-battery-life-what-the-data-show-so-far https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1110149_tesla-model-s-b... "But, overall, the data offer some basis for confidence that a Tesla Model S will lose—on average—less than 15 percent of its battery capacity over the average 150,000-mile (250,000-km) life of a vehicle."
- searine 8y ago
  I have a 2011 volt and have had negligible degradation. Thats an N of 1 but from GMs data, degradation hasn't been an issue in volts.
- mikeash 8y ago
  It’s a Model S 85 with not quite 60,000 miles. From what I hear from other owners, this is slightly better than average but not much. I haven’t done anything special to treat it well, either. I charge it to 90% nightly (the default), charge to 100% before long trips, and have used Superchargers for maybe 20% of those miles.
mschuster91 8y ago
> My car is almost four years old and its battery has lost about 1% capacity. These things don’t wear out that quickly. Probably because Tesla undersells their batteries. During hurricanes or other disasters Tesla routinely unlocks the software limit, allowing customers more range (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-unlocks-full-battery-capacity-free-supercharging-hurricane-michael/ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-unlocks-full-battery-capacit...). It's the same with HDDs and SSDs, which always carry a decent safety margin to account for media wear.
- mikeash 8y ago
  Only certain models are software limited, and the 85 isn’t one of those. They actually substantially overstated the capacity: the 85 means 85kWh, but the actual usable capacity is only about 77.5kWh. (https://electrek.co/2016/12/14/tesla-battery-capacity/ https://electrek.co/2016/12/14/tesla-battery-capacity/)
  - rightbyte 8y ago
    The SoC window is not 0 to 100%, it's might be eg. 15 - 75 % or something. That's also why you don't notice battery degradation, since the window might be moving (keeping constant energy limits for 0 and 100% charged). For kWh capacity it's just a matter of counting the cells. Actual kWh will vary abit by measuring technique but I assume there is a way to drain the nominal Wh:s from them.