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I don't like this post for several reasons. 1. The author worries about Apple crowning a successor. What they're advocating is HTML5, which is essentially an o

by cletus 16y ago

I don't like this post for several reasons. 1. The author worries about Apple crowning a successor. What they're advocating is HTML5, which is essentially an open standard, where Flash is of course proprietary. 2. The premise of the article is that Apple has the power to kill anything they set their mind to. It uses the lazy argument of the slippery slope or thin end of the wedge ("What's next?"). It's simply fearmongering; 3. It mistakes cause and effect. A classic example of this was Intel's original Centrino platform, which became the basis of Intel's success (after the Pentium 4 debacle) for years. At the time it launched Intel spent $150m+ on marketing it. Sadly, many observers attributed its success to that marketing campaign when in fact the lesson is: Good products sell themselves. Centrino succeeded because it was a good product. Flash came about at a time to solve a problem of creating "rich" Internet applications ("RIAs") when it wasn't possible any other way. That's no longer the case with a plethroa of Javascript frameworks and browsers with fast Javascript engines in them. The use case for Flash was going away anyway. Apple just hastened its inevitable demise. They haven't killed it. They just threw some oil on the fire that was already burning down the house. 4. Apple is on the outs with a bunch of other companies? Large companies are complex creatures. You will find them competing savagely on one level while cooperating on another. But the real reason they don't like Apple? Nothing breeds contempt like success. 5. Blu-ray. Optical storage, like Flash, is dying. Apple didn't pick a side in the HD-DVD vs Blu-ray "war". Some might call this realpolitik. Personally, I think they took a long term view that the winner was irrelevant. The well is drying up. Who controls it doesn't matter anymore. 6. Apple is by far the company that has demonstrated an utter devotion to the paramount importance of the user experience. Now you can disagree with some of the decisions they've made but, on the whole, no company has engendered quite the same loyalty and fervour that Apple has for good reason. They're still at the mercy of the market as a whole.

Supermighty 16y ago
Point 2: Apple has a great deal of influence to kill a great deal. Recently they depreciated Java on the Mac. How many $30 desktop apps will you sell if users also have to download a 200MB Java runtime? Don't fool yourself, Apple has to power to drive adoption (USB) or kill it (Flash, Jave, et al).
- Aykroyd 16y ago
  Maybe, I'm mistaken but when I think of desktop Java apps pretty much the only significant ones that I come up with are IntelliJ (which I use) and Eclipse. And I'd much prefer something native to the resource hogging of IntelliJ. I don't think they're killing off a big industry by ditching java on the mac. It's just potentially going to make things more of a pain for those of us who write server-side java code on our Macs. Do you think their move will have an effect on that industry?
  - chc 16y ago
    Cyberduck is a very popular FTP client for the Mac, and Vuze is a fairly popular Bittorrent client on all platforms.
- tpinto 16y ago
  Since they don't own Java, they can't "deprecate" it. They are just ditching their own implementation of Java. According to them, because release cycles of Mac OS X and Java don't match, thus Java being generally a couple of versions late on the Mac. Windows don't ship with Java preinstalled and it isn't that big of a deal, people install it the first time they need it and that's it. That's what is going to happen on the Mac.
tpinto 16y ago
Agreed. Apple has the same power as others and they should take their side on debates like these. Honestly I don't get the gist of the original linked post because I think there's nothing to worry about. All the technologies are in the market, some will win and some will lose. The only thing that will define this is adoption, and Apple is adopting the technologies they believe are the best to deliver a great user experience to their customers.
recoiledsnake 16y ago
1. The author explicitly states that HTML5 is a good thing. He's just worried about a time when a successor is not a good thing. 2. Apple growing hugely day-by-day does change things up a little bit. Doesn't it? 3. Flash being supported on iPad could have changed things a bit. 4. Apple is known to be particularly insular, especially because of it's quest to define consumer experience. 5. Bluray is not dying, bluray players and discs are being sold in record numbers. Perhaps you meant optical storage is dying for computers. 6. The article is specifically talking about their new found power. Your statement has no bearing on this except makes it feel that you're making an appeal to gloss over the possibility of Apple's power being used for bad just because it's a 'good' company. For example, as Apple's share in PC market grows, it might be enough to send AMD/ATI down, since Apple won't ship their chips thereby granting a free monopoly to Intel and Nvidia which is bad for everyone involved.
- matwood 16y ago
  5. Bluray is not dying, bluray players and discs are being sold in record numbers. Record numbers compared to what? Of course when BR uptake has been as slow as it was in the beginning it's easy to set records. I think the OP was pointing out that physical media in general is dying. Of course you'll still have the technobuffs who have 5.1/6.1/7.1 surround in their house and 100" projectors (this is where BR really shines and it's amazing to experience), but for most people convenience trumps the good enough that is current streaming. Even now I believe that Netflix has recently added 5.1 sound to many of their streams and I think they have started to stream some 1080p material to the PS3.
wmf 16y ago
I have to disagree a little on the Centrino example. The processors were great but the Centrino Wi-Fi was the worst on the market (heck, Intel was selling b at the same time Broadcom was selling draft g), yet it still got fairly high merket share due to the marketing.

by cletus 16y ago

Supermighty 16y ago

Point 2: Apple has a great deal of influence to kill a great deal. Recently they depreciated Java on the Mac. How many $30 desktop apps will you sell if users also have to download a 200MB Java runtime? Don't fool yourself, Apple has to power to drive adoption (USB) or kill it (Flash, Jave, et al).

Aykroyd 16y ago
Maybe, I'm mistaken but when I think of desktop Java apps pretty much the only significant ones that I come up with are IntelliJ (which I use) and Eclipse. And I'd much prefer something native to the resource hogging of IntelliJ. I don't think they're killing off a big industry by ditching java on the mac. It's just potentially going to make things more of a pain for those of us who write server-side java code on our Macs. Do you think their move will have an effect on that industry?
- chc 16y ago
  Cyberduck is a very popular FTP client for the Mac, and Vuze is a fairly popular Bittorrent client on all platforms.
tpinto 16y ago
Since they don't own Java, they can't "deprecate" it. They are just ditching their own implementation of Java. According to them, because release cycles of Mac OS X and Java don't match, thus Java being generally a couple of versions late on the Mac. Windows don't ship with Java preinstalled and it isn't that big of a deal, people install it the first time they need it and that's it. That's what is going to happen on the Mac.

tpinto 16y ago

Agreed. Apple has the same power as others and they should take their side on debates like these. Honestly I don't get the gist of the original linked post because I think there's nothing to worry about. All the technologies are in the market, some will win and some will lose. The only thing that will define this is adoption, and Apple is adopting the technologies they believe are the best to deliver a great user experience to their customers.

recoiledsnake 16y ago

1. The author explicitly states that HTML5 is a good thing. He's just worried about a time when a successor is not a good thing. 2. Apple growing hugely day-by-day does change things up a little bit. Doesn't it? 3. Flash being supported on iPad could have changed things a bit. 4. Apple is known to be particularly insular, especially because of it's quest to define consumer experience. 5. Bluray is not dying, bluray players and discs are being sold in record numbers. Perhaps you meant optical storage is dying for computers. 6. The article is specifically talking about their new found power. Your statement has no bearing on this except makes it feel that you're making an appeal to gloss over the possibility of Apple's power being used for bad just because it's a 'good' company. For example, as Apple's share in PC market grows, it might be enough to send AMD/ATI down, since Apple won't ship their chips thereby granting a free monopoly to Intel and Nvidia which is bad for everyone involved.

matwood 16y ago
5. Bluray is not dying, bluray players and discs are being sold in record numbers. Record numbers compared to what? Of course when BR uptake has been as slow as it was in the beginning it's easy to set records. I think the OP was pointing out that physical media in general is dying. Of course you'll still have the technobuffs who have 5.1/6.1/7.1 surround in their house and 100" projectors (this is where BR really shines and it's amazing to experience), but for most people convenience trumps the good enough that is current streaming. Even now I believe that Netflix has recently added 5.1 sound to many of their streams and I think they have started to stream some 1080p material to the PS3.

wmf 16y ago

I have to disagree a little on the Centrino example. The processors were great but the Centrino Wi-Fi was the worst on the market (heck, Intel was selling b at the same time Broadcom was selling draft g), yet it still got fairly high merket share due to the marketing.