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tl;dr after 11 draws, Carlsen offered a draw from a superior position in the final game to head into the short-format tiebreaks, where: > he is ranked No. 1 in

tl;dr after 11 draws, Carlsen offered a draw from a superior position in the final game to head into the short-format tiebreaks, where: > he is ranked No. 1 in all three formats (classical, rapid, and blitz). Caruana is ranked 10th and 18th in rapid and blitz respectively. Critics are appalled that he didn't fight for the win out of sense of honor. I don't see how this is different than, for instance, fouling at the end of a basketball game. Hard to blame a player for working within the rules to put himself into a position where he feels he has a greater chance of keeping the title. "It's not the critic who counts...."

mindgam3 8y ago
What I don’t understand is why Carlsen didn’t push for even a few more moves. Fabi was running out time, it was low risk for him to probe a little more and see if he could get something a little more decisive.
- gregorymichael 8y ago
  I don't understand either. But Carlsen was in the seat for all 12 games, and he knows what was going on in his own head. Maybe he was simply exhausted and didn't trust his decision. Maybe that particular position gave him difficulty in a match four years ago. For whatever reason, the best chess player in the world decided that offering the draw was his best move in that moment.
  - mindgam3 8y ago
    I tend to agree. The most plausible reason I can think of is a combination of him being supremely confident in his rapid skills + being a bit afraid of Caruana in classical. But his lack of confidence in himself in classical is not a good sign going into the blitz. The best chess player in the world got there by using good judgment when it comes to selective aggression. We’ll find out tomorrow if this was a brilliant move to fend off a challenger or the beginning of the end...
  - pbhjpbhj 8y ago
    Is it possible he gets paid per game by a sponsor and was confident he could push through and win ... just as an alternative option. If he were a narcissist, another option would be to bask a little more in the limelight. Just throwing these out there, as we really don't know his motivation.
- fjsolwmv 8y ago
  Lower risk than playing the #10 seed in Rapid for the title?
  - mindgam3 8y ago
    Rapid and blitz chess rely on trusting one’s intuition. If he doesn’t trust himself enough to play on in such a strong position, his admittedly large advantage in rapid may evaporate.
    - Retra 8y ago
      He trusted in himself that the position was not as strong as it appeared, and decided to let another game decide the outcome of the tournament.
- hackinthebochs 8y ago
  Time pressure and the position being in flux guaranteed that Fabi would accept the draw. If he had waited a few more moves, Fabi might have decided to play on. While Magnus was on the attack, his king position wasn't secure. If Fabi could have secured his position, he might have chosen to play on, considering he knows Magnus is the favorite to win the tie break.
  - mindgam3 8y ago
    Fabi had no real chances for counterplay any time soon. This is why playing on for at least 5 more moves would have been advantageous. Virtually guaranteed fabi would accept a draw even if Carlsen makes no headway given Fabi having burned a few more minutes on the clock.
    - hackinthebochs 8y ago
      Fabi wasn't looking for counterplay, he was looking to secure his king. If he managed to do so in a few moves, he would have less to lose by playing on than Magnus. Giving Fabi a chance to fend off Magnus' attack only increases the chance that Fabi plays on.
- amenghra 8y ago
  Perhaps Carlsen is confident he'll win the blitz games tomorrow? Caruana was low on time, but they are both 9 moves away from getting additional time.
  - rtkwe 8y ago
    He is pretty significantly favored to win the tiebreakers. His ELO goes up as we move from rapid to blitz while Caruana's goes down so the longer this drags on and the shorter the games get the better off he is.
- yazaddaruvala 8y ago
  Has it not occurred to anyone that maybe Carlsen is just bored? It takes effort to tie 12 straight games between two world champions. Additionally, it is not in Carlsen's best interest to finish the tournament. During the tournament he is a super star. After the tournament he is just some guy who has a chess trophy (i.e. most people in real life don't care). Maybe he is just testing himself with some criteria that is harder than "just winning... again"? Maybe he just wants to prolong his time in the spotlight? Create some drama, have people talk about the year where every game, including Armageddon, ended in a draw!
  - mindgam3 8y ago
    Honestly this seems closest to the truth. His attitude and body language at the press conference communicated utter boredom for the whole proceedings. As a chess fan I admit I’m eager to see a rapid tiebreaks. I just didn’t want to get here like this.
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
  - williamscales 8y ago
    I heard a story (not sure if it's true) when I was a fencer. At one time in fencing, there was a rule about inactivity. If you refused to fence, the period ended and the next period started. There are three periods. If all three periods ended this way, it went to a one point suddend death matchoff. Well, one individual felt he liked to win with a lot of panache. As I heard it, he would deliberately incur three inactivity penalties to send the match to a one point sudden death where he would try to pull off a daring victory. So I think there is precedent for the idea of really skilled competitors thirsting for something more thrilling.
    - tedunangst 8y ago
      I thought it was a baseball player in the ninth inning who watched two strikes sail by before swinging at the last pitch.
- ubernostrum 8y ago
  chess.com is running a "tournament" of the top computer chess engines to play out the final position of Game 12 and see how it goes: https://www.chess.com/news/view/computer-chess-championship-to-play-out-caruana-carlsen-game-12 https://www.chess.com/news/view/computer-chess-championship-...
  - pbhjpbhj 8y ago
    How many milliseconds does that take?
    - rtkwe 8y ago
      Computers are better but they still take a while to process the best moves, more if you're playing out a couple possible moves for each player to try to figure out the possible branches a human might go down that a computer would discard.
    - ubernostrum 8y ago
      Computer chess isn't instantaneous. While you can go get Stockfish and run it on your phone, the full power of the top engines only comes out when you throw hardware and time at them. They're running the engines with a 30 minute starting clock plus five-second increment per move. So far, Ethereal and Stockfish have each managed to win a game as White (Caruana) from the Game 12 position. Also this site has been running live analysis using Stockfish on 20 CPUs during each game of the championship, and its evaluations frequently have changed with more time to "think": http://analysis.sesse.net/ http://analysis.sesse.net/
  - ttonkytonk 8y ago
    The score is currently 2 wins for white, 11 draws and 6 wins for black. There is a total of 56 games involving eight engines.
    - brianberns 8y ago
      So, roughly 10% chance of disaster for Black. Perhaps Carlsen thinks his odds of losing in the tiebreaks are actually lower than that?
dmurray 8y ago
> Critics are appalled that he didn't fight for the win out of sense of honor. I don't see how this is different than, for instance, fouling at the end of a basketball game. Not really. The consensus was that Carlsen really cost himself winning chances by taking a draw. In the basketball analogy, it's more like holding onto the ball to force overtime instead of shooting in the last few seconds and risking a turnover. That might be a good strategy in some circumstances, but it's rare. Carlsen has said he didn't think it was as easy or risk free as the commentators and spectators thought, and despite the fact that they had computer assistance he's as good a judge of that as anyone in the world. Personally I think he got a little nervous here and doesn't like to have everything on the line in one game - which is consistent with his approach in game 12 two years ago where he appeared to intentionally draw with the white pieces.
- tln 8y ago
  That's a great analogy. I haven't seen Carlsen say it was risky to keep playing, the only quote I've seen is: > “I wasn’t in a mood to find the punch,” Carlsen said by way of explanation after the game[0]. He had an advantage on the board and on the clock, and didn't even try for the win. [0] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/carlsens-bizarre-decision-has-sent-the-world-chess-championship-to-overtime/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/carlsens-bizarre-decisi...
weinzierl 8y ago
It's also worth noting that by entering the tiebreaks the prize money distribution changes. While during the classical portion the winner would have got 600k EUR and the loser 400k EUR it's now 550k vs 450k EUR.
fullshark 8y ago
I think it's like playing for penalty kicks in a world cup championship game where you think you have an advantage. People moan about that too.
Gatsky 8y ago
My theory is this - obviously they are closely matched. Losing in the 12th game would make Caruana very hungry to come back again and again. Now, consider what happens if Carlsen crushes Caruana in the rapid or blitz rounds - this sends the message "you will never beat me at rapid or blitz, and no amount of preparation will save you". Caruana will never forget this. This will be in his his head the next time they play, and the pressure to avoid the tiebreaker rounds will be huge.

mindgam3 8y ago

What I don’t understand is why Carlsen didn’t push for even a few more moves. Fabi was running out time, it was low risk for him to probe a little more and see if he could get something a little more decisive.

gregorymichael 8y ago
I don't understand either. But Carlsen was in the seat for all 12 games, and he knows what was going on in his own head. Maybe he was simply exhausted and didn't trust his decision. Maybe that particular position gave him difficulty in a match four years ago. For whatever reason, the best chess player in the world decided that offering the draw was his best move in that moment.
- mindgam3 8y ago
  I tend to agree. The most plausible reason I can think of is a combination of him being supremely confident in his rapid skills + being a bit afraid of Caruana in classical. But his lack of confidence in himself in classical is not a good sign going into the blitz. The best chess player in the world got there by using good judgment when it comes to selective aggression. We’ll find out tomorrow if this was a brilliant move to fend off a challenger or the beginning of the end...
- pbhjpbhj 8y ago
  Is it possible he gets paid per game by a sponsor and was confident he could push through and win ... just as an alternative option. If he were a narcissist, another option would be to bask a little more in the limelight. Just throwing these out there, as we really don't know his motivation.
fjsolwmv 8y ago
Lower risk than playing the #10 seed in Rapid for the title?
- mindgam3 8y ago
  Rapid and blitz chess rely on trusting one’s intuition. If he doesn’t trust himself enough to play on in such a strong position, his admittedly large advantage in rapid may evaporate.
  - Retra 8y ago
    He trusted in himself that the position was not as strong as it appeared, and decided to let another game decide the outcome of the tournament.
hackinthebochs 8y ago
Time pressure and the position being in flux guaranteed that Fabi would accept the draw. If he had waited a few more moves, Fabi might have decided to play on. While Magnus was on the attack, his king position wasn't secure. If Fabi could have secured his position, he might have chosen to play on, considering he knows Magnus is the favorite to win the tie break.
- mindgam3 8y ago
  Fabi had no real chances for counterplay any time soon. This is why playing on for at least 5 more moves would have been advantageous. Virtually guaranteed fabi would accept a draw even if Carlsen makes no headway given Fabi having burned a few more minutes on the clock.
  - hackinthebochs 8y ago
    Fabi wasn't looking for counterplay, he was looking to secure his king. If he managed to do so in a few moves, he would have less to lose by playing on than Magnus. Giving Fabi a chance to fend off Magnus' attack only increases the chance that Fabi plays on.
amenghra 8y ago
Perhaps Carlsen is confident he'll win the blitz games tomorrow? Caruana was low on time, but they are both 9 moves away from getting additional time.
- rtkwe 8y ago
  He is pretty significantly favored to win the tiebreakers. His ELO goes up as we move from rapid to blitz while Caruana's goes down so the longer this drags on and the shorter the games get the better off he is.
yazaddaruvala 8y ago
Has it not occurred to anyone that maybe Carlsen is just bored? It takes effort to tie 12 straight games between two world champions. Additionally, it is not in Carlsen's best interest to finish the tournament. During the tournament he is a super star. After the tournament he is just some guy who has a chess trophy (i.e. most people in real life don't care). Maybe he is just testing himself with some criteria that is harder than "just winning... again"? Maybe he just wants to prolong his time in the spotlight? Create some drama, have people talk about the year where every game, including Armageddon, ended in a draw!
- mindgam3 8y ago
  Honestly this seems closest to the truth. His attitude and body language at the press conference communicated utter boredom for the whole proceedings. As a chess fan I admit I’m eager to see a rapid tiebreaks. I just didn’t want to get here like this.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
- williamscales 8y ago
  I heard a story (not sure if it's true) when I was a fencer. At one time in fencing, there was a rule about inactivity. If you refused to fence, the period ended and the next period started. There are three periods. If all three periods ended this way, it went to a one point suddend death matchoff. Well, one individual felt he liked to win with a lot of panache. As I heard it, he would deliberately incur three inactivity penalties to send the match to a one point sudden death where he would try to pull off a daring victory. So I think there is precedent for the idea of really skilled competitors thirsting for something more thrilling.
  - tedunangst 8y ago
    I thought it was a baseball player in the ninth inning who watched two strikes sail by before swinging at the last pitch.
ubernostrum 8y ago
chess.com is running a "tournament" of the top computer chess engines to play out the final position of Game 12 and see how it goes: https://www.chess.com/news/view/computer-chess-championship-to-play-out-caruana-carlsen-game-12 https://www.chess.com/news/view/computer-chess-championship-...
- pbhjpbhj 8y ago
  How many milliseconds does that take?
  - rtkwe 8y ago
    Computers are better but they still take a while to process the best moves, more if you're playing out a couple possible moves for each player to try to figure out the possible branches a human might go down that a computer would discard.
  - ubernostrum 8y ago
    Computer chess isn't instantaneous. While you can go get Stockfish and run it on your phone, the full power of the top engines only comes out when you throw hardware and time at them. They're running the engines with a 30 minute starting clock plus five-second increment per move. So far, Ethereal and Stockfish have each managed to win a game as White (Caruana) from the Game 12 position. Also this site has been running live analysis using Stockfish on 20 CPUs during each game of the championship, and its evaluations frequently have changed with more time to "think": http://analysis.sesse.net/ http://analysis.sesse.net/
- ttonkytonk 8y ago
  The score is currently 2 wins for white, 11 draws and 6 wins for black. There is a total of 56 games involving eight engines.
  - brianberns 8y ago
    So, roughly 10% chance of disaster for Black. Perhaps Carlsen thinks his odds of losing in the tiebreaks are actually lower than that?

dmurray 8y ago

> Critics are appalled that he didn't fight for the win out of sense of honor. I don't see how this is different than, for instance, fouling at the end of a basketball game. Not really. The consensus was that Carlsen really cost himself winning chances by taking a draw. In the basketball analogy, it's more like holding onto the ball to force overtime instead of shooting in the last few seconds and risking a turnover. That might be a good strategy in some circumstances, but it's rare. Carlsen has said he didn't think it was as easy or risk free as the commentators and spectators thought, and despite the fact that they had computer assistance he's as good a judge of that as anyone in the world. Personally I think he got a little nervous here and doesn't like to have everything on the line in one game - which is consistent with his approach in game 12 two years ago where he appeared to intentionally draw with the white pieces.

tln 8y ago
That's a great analogy. I haven't seen Carlsen say it was risky to keep playing, the only quote I've seen is: > “I wasn’t in a mood to find the punch,” Carlsen said by way of explanation after the game[0]. He had an advantage on the board and on the clock, and didn't even try for the win. [0] https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/carlsens-bizarre-decision-has-sent-the-world-chess-championship-to-overtime/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/carlsens-bizarre-decisi...

weinzierl 8y ago

It's also worth noting that by entering the tiebreaks the prize money distribution changes. While during the classical portion the winner would have got 600k EUR and the loser 400k EUR it's now 550k vs 450k EUR.

fullshark 8y ago

I think it's like playing for penalty kicks in a world cup championship game where you think you have an advantage. People moan about that too.

Gatsky 8y ago

My theory is this - obviously they are closely matched. Losing in the 12th game would make Caruana very hungry to come back again and again. Now, consider what happens if Carlsen crushes Caruana in the rapid or blitz rounds - this sends the message "you will never beat me at rapid or blitz, and no amount of preparation will save you". Caruana will never forget this. This will be in his his head the next time they play, and the pressure to avoid the tiebreaker rounds will be huge.