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Given how trash of a search engine Baidu is, Google would likely achieve market share dominance in China within a couple years - should they move forward with D

Given how trash of a search engine Baidu is, Google would likely achieve market share dominance in China within a couple years - should they move forward with Dragonfly. Complying with demands of the Chinese gov't is the only way they can penetrate the Chinese market. Search engine advertising constitutes close to 85% of Google's revenue. And unlike Project Maven, which was ended due to internal resistance from employees, doing business with the second largest economy in the world isn't an expendable venture. Curious to see how they move forward. My guess is they will: human outrage never really lasts long, especially when their livelihoods are far from in jeopardy.

orblivion 8y ago
It also sounds like a strong negotiating position, should they want to change terms.
admax88q 8y ago
> Google would likely achieve dominant search engine market share in China within a few years You assume that the government would ever let a foreign company get dominant market share over a domestic one. China is no where close to a free market, the winners are chosen.
- ocdtrekkie 8y ago
  China has a vested interest in spreading it's influence globally, the same way the United States has (and is receding from a bit under the current administration). It would be far more valuable to China to get a global company like Google propagating their censorship requirements than continuing to prop up their own state-run option. If Google caves, other countries might ask for the same demands as well, which supports the notion that China's way of doing things is the 'right' way. In short, having global companies doing China's bidding expands China's influence. Reading a bit about the Belt and Road Initiative is probably a good primer on some of China's global interests right now.
  - 5874-4b22-a4e0 8y ago
    Why not let these companies in, let them operate for a few years, then migrate the ownership to a state owned company?
  - bronco21016 8y ago
    I don’t understand why this is being downvoted. Google is dominant nearly worldwide. If China is able to get Google to cave and build the censorship machine then what barrier is there to turning the feature ‘on’ for other countries that ask for it? There are plenty of oppressive regimes interested in a censored Google but they don’t have the pull to get Google to build it right now. Once it’s built though why wouldn’t Google’s response just be shrugs “sure why not?” I think it is indeed a slippery slope and legitimizes China’s plan to influence the internet for the worse.
    - abecedarius 8y ago
      Further, once Google depends on its China operations for revenue, what's to stop the Chinese state from leaning on them further? With enough leverage, they won't scruple at affecting what Google does in the west as well.
      - infogulch 8y ago
        Any company that adds a customer that becomes the source of ~20% of the company's revenue implicitly gives the customer power over the company, the bigger share of revenue the more power. Google would be insane to give this much power over itself to China, ignoring that developing this technology sets the precedent for oppressive regimes to demand flipping on the "more speech suppression" switch.
    - Spooky23 8y ago
      You are spot on, and there already is a track record of this with telecom. Remember all of the handwringing about BBM messages being difficult to intercept? Then the crying suddenly went away, and a few months later you heard about police breaking up organizers of riots.
onion2k 8y ago
doing business with the second largest economy in the world isn't an expendable venture Google could continue to operate profitably without doing business in China, so what makes your statement true?
- notyourwork 8y ago
  Businesses are not in the business of simply being profitable, they are usually in the business of increasing revenue and profits beyond the current state.
  - onion2k 8y ago
    Nothing about my question suggests Google wouldn't be able to continue to grow by focusing on the 80% of the world that isn't China. China may be the lowest-hanging fruit of the search and ad market, but surely you're not suggesting Google would shy away from a challenge and only go for the easy win? That doesn't sounds like the Google we all know.
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
    - TheForumTroll 8y ago
      I'd say it sounds exactly like the google we know. People want a messenger app? Let's make one! Oh, it takes time and energy. Let's shut it down. Oh wait, people want a messenger app. Let's make one. Oh, it takes [........]
    - notyourwork 8y ago
      If I was a business I would avoid low hanging fruits in favor or more risky ventures that are perhaps less likely to succeed or yield profit. Businesses are in the business of business, not in the business of tacking hard problems just to spite the rest of the world. I think the image of Google being this almighty good intentioned soul is over blown because at the end of the day they answer to share holders, they profit of advertisement and the rest of it is ice cream that goes on their advertisement cake. I love google for the services they provide me but I also am not naive that a business is going got be a business first and a good hearted soul last.
schalab 8y ago
Why dont western companies band together and threaten a boycott until some kind of IP laws are enforced? They just keep getting picked off one by one.
- stale2002 8y ago
  Of all of the good and bad things that China is doing, underminding IP laws is probably the most beneficial to society. The best way for the world to improve is for all scientific and technology advancements to be freely available.
  - icelancer 8y ago
    The way they undermine them also spreads authoritarianism, which is a side effect you may or may not be okay with.
    - scarcely 8y ago
      You can literally make this argument anywhere. Any good China does for its people or for other nations? That will just serve to legitimize their totalitarian government and encourage imitations abroad. Ergo it's bad. In general it's better to state your fundamental premises at the beginning of the argument rather than reveal them midway through
- virmundi 8y ago
  Prisoner's dilemma. If one of those companies jumps ship, it will make more money than the others.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- barry-cotter 8y ago
  Because coordination problems are really hard and that’s what governments and the WTO are for. Also, I’d be very surprised if that kind of coordination didn’t bring national competition authorities down like a hammer on all participants.
mtgx 8y ago
> Given how trash of a search engine Baidu is, Google would likely achieve market share dominance in China within a couple years You can't be serious. Don't ever underestimate brand inertia, especially in a "super-patriotic" country like China. If Google had any chance at all, and assuming the Chinese government or Baidu's friends in the government wouldn't interfere with the "free market" in China to hurt Google at every turn, it would still take at least 5-7 years for Google to even get close to Baidu's market share. Also this assumes this wouldn't catch a fire under Baidu's ass to start innovating and investing more into its search software and server farms. I still believe it would be all but impossible for Google to beat Baidu in China. I just don't ever see it happening. If it was so easy, why hasn't even happened in Russia, where Google actually had significantly larger market share, had to deal with fewer political games than in China, and its Chrome browser I think was actually the most popular there until recently (or it may still be the most popular there). If Google can't beat Yandex, it absolutely can't beat Baidu, no matter how much it "complies" with the Chinese governments' rules.
- snaky 8y ago
  > Don't ever underestimate brand inertia, especially in a "super-patriotic" country like China. OTOH Chinese consumers are recently obsessed with western products actually. Not with iPhones (you can buy Xiaomi smartphone, laptop, and Bluetooth headset for the price of iPhone), but with clothes, food, and many other goods. > If Google can't beat Yandex, it absolutely can't beat Baidu Don't underestimate Yandex.
mc32 8y ago
I guess thry could create a new China-venture Google owned company and hire lots of locals in cooperation with other development teams, be they in MTV or other campuses worldwide.
nradov 8y ago
Baidu currently has no real competitors so they can afford to be a bit lazy. If Google enters the Chinese search engine market then Baidu won't just surrender, they'll improve their product to compete. They certainly have the capital and resources to do so if they make it a priority.
- barry-cotter 8y ago
  Baidu has been worse than Google at Chinese language search for its entire existence and only got traction because it was the best way to get porn and Google’s performance was highly degraded by package dropping. Google has no competitors in search. It’s so much better that the other search engines are just comical.
memory_grep 8y ago
> Complying with demands of the Chinese gov't is the only way they can penetrate the Chinese market. You completely missed the point and failed to address any of the serious ethical problems they raised in the letter. We would be living in a dark dystopia if everyone's biggest priority was penetrating markets. Tech workers are in high demand and have great salaries. Their livelihoods are not in jeapordy; they have their pick of where to work.

orblivion 8y ago

It also sounds like a strong negotiating position, should they want to change terms.

admax88q 8y ago

> Google would likely achieve dominant search engine market share in China within a few years You assume that the government would ever let a foreign company get dominant market share over a domestic one. China is no where close to a free market, the winners are chosen.

ocdtrekkie 8y ago
China has a vested interest in spreading it's influence globally, the same way the United States has (and is receding from a bit under the current administration). It would be far more valuable to China to get a global company like Google propagating their censorship requirements than continuing to prop up their own state-run option. If Google caves, other countries might ask for the same demands as well, which supports the notion that China's way of doing things is the 'right' way. In short, having global companies doing China's bidding expands China's influence. Reading a bit about the Belt and Road Initiative is probably a good primer on some of China's global interests right now.
- 5874-4b22-a4e0 8y ago
  Why not let these companies in, let them operate for a few years, then migrate the ownership to a state owned company?
- bronco21016 8y ago
  I don’t understand why this is being downvoted. Google is dominant nearly worldwide. If China is able to get Google to cave and build the censorship machine then what barrier is there to turning the feature ‘on’ for other countries that ask for it? There are plenty of oppressive regimes interested in a censored Google but they don’t have the pull to get Google to build it right now. Once it’s built though why wouldn’t Google’s response just be shrugs “sure why not?” I think it is indeed a slippery slope and legitimizes China’s plan to influence the internet for the worse.
  - abecedarius 8y ago
    Further, once Google depends on its China operations for revenue, what's to stop the Chinese state from leaning on them further? With enough leverage, they won't scruple at affecting what Google does in the west as well.
    - infogulch 8y ago
      Any company that adds a customer that becomes the source of ~20% of the company's revenue implicitly gives the customer power over the company, the bigger share of revenue the more power. Google would be insane to give this much power over itself to China, ignoring that developing this technology sets the precedent for oppressive regimes to demand flipping on the "more speech suppression" switch.
  - Spooky23 8y ago
    You are spot on, and there already is a track record of this with telecom. Remember all of the handwringing about BBM messages being difficult to intercept? Then the crying suddenly went away, and a few months later you heard about police breaking up organizers of riots.

onion2k 8y ago

doing business with the second largest economy in the world isn't an expendable venture Google could continue to operate profitably without doing business in China, so what makes your statement true?

notyourwork 8y ago
Businesses are not in the business of simply being profitable, they are usually in the business of increasing revenue and profits beyond the current state.
- onion2k 8y ago
  Nothing about my question suggests Google wouldn't be able to continue to grow by focusing on the 80% of the world that isn't China. China may be the lowest-hanging fruit of the search and ad market, but surely you're not suggesting Google would shy away from a challenge and only go for the easy win? That doesn't sounds like the Google we all know.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - TheForumTroll 8y ago
    I'd say it sounds exactly like the google we know. People want a messenger app? Let's make one! Oh, it takes time and energy. Let's shut it down. Oh wait, people want a messenger app. Let's make one. Oh, it takes [........]
  - notyourwork 8y ago
    If I was a business I would avoid low hanging fruits in favor or more risky ventures that are perhaps less likely to succeed or yield profit. Businesses are in the business of business, not in the business of tacking hard problems just to spite the rest of the world. I think the image of Google being this almighty good intentioned soul is over blown because at the end of the day they answer to share holders, they profit of advertisement and the rest of it is ice cream that goes on their advertisement cake. I love google for the services they provide me but I also am not naive that a business is going got be a business first and a good hearted soul last.

schalab 8y ago

Why dont western companies band together and threaten a boycott until some kind of IP laws are enforced? They just keep getting picked off one by one.

stale2002 8y ago
Of all of the good and bad things that China is doing, underminding IP laws is probably the most beneficial to society. The best way for the world to improve is for all scientific and technology advancements to be freely available.
- icelancer 8y ago
  The way they undermine them also spreads authoritarianism, which is a side effect you may or may not be okay with.
  - scarcely 8y ago
    You can literally make this argument anywhere. Any good China does for its people or for other nations? That will just serve to legitimize their totalitarian government and encourage imitations abroad. Ergo it's bad. In general it's better to state your fundamental premises at the beginning of the argument rather than reveal them midway through
virmundi 8y ago
Prisoner's dilemma. If one of those companies jumps ship, it will make more money than the others.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
barry-cotter 8y ago
Because coordination problems are really hard and that’s what governments and the WTO are for. Also, I’d be very surprised if that kind of coordination didn’t bring national competition authorities down like a hammer on all participants.

mtgx 8y ago

> Given how trash of a search engine Baidu is, Google would likely achieve market share dominance in China within a couple years You can't be serious. Don't ever underestimate brand inertia, especially in a "super-patriotic" country like China. If Google had any chance at all, and assuming the Chinese government or Baidu's friends in the government wouldn't interfere with the "free market" in China to hurt Google at every turn, it would still take at least 5-7 years for Google to even get close to Baidu's market share. Also this assumes this wouldn't catch a fire under Baidu's ass to start innovating and investing more into its search software and server farms. I still believe it would be all but impossible for Google to beat Baidu in China. I just don't ever see it happening. If it was so easy, why hasn't even happened in Russia, where Google actually had significantly larger market share, had to deal with fewer political games than in China, and its Chrome browser I think was actually the most popular there until recently (or it may still be the most popular there). If Google can't beat Yandex, it absolutely can't beat Baidu, no matter how much it "complies" with the Chinese governments' rules.

snaky 8y ago
> Don't ever underestimate brand inertia, especially in a "super-patriotic" country like China. OTOH Chinese consumers are recently obsessed with western products actually. Not with iPhones (you can buy Xiaomi smartphone, laptop, and Bluetooth headset for the price of iPhone), but with clothes, food, and many other goods. > If Google can't beat Yandex, it absolutely can't beat Baidu Don't underestimate Yandex.

mc32 8y ago

I guess thry could create a new China-venture Google owned company and hire lots of locals in cooperation with other development teams, be they in MTV or other campuses worldwide.

nradov 8y ago

Baidu currently has no real competitors so they can afford to be a bit lazy. If Google enters the Chinese search engine market then Baidu won't just surrender, they'll improve their product to compete. They certainly have the capital and resources to do so if they make it a priority.

barry-cotter 8y ago
Baidu has been worse than Google at Chinese language search for its entire existence and only got traction because it was the best way to get porn and Google’s performance was highly degraded by package dropping. Google has no competitors in search. It’s so much better that the other search engines are just comical.

memory_grep 8y ago

> Complying with demands of the Chinese gov't is the only way they can penetrate the Chinese market. You completely missed the point and failed to address any of the serious ethical problems they raised in the letter. We would be living in a dark dystopia if everyone's biggest priority was penetrating markets. Tech workers are in high demand and have great salaries. Their livelihoods are not in jeapordy; they have their pick of where to work.