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I don't see how an incursion on Ukraine would result in a war with NATO. Ukraine's problem is precisely that it's a formerly neutral party and not part of NATO.
by pluma 8y ago
I don't see how an incursion on Ukraine would result in a war with NATO. Ukraine's problem is precisely that it's a formerly neutral party and not part of NATO. In fact, from a Russian POV the reason for the annexation of the Crimean peninsula were fears fueled by Ukraine moving closer to NATO and the EU, violating its neutrality and jeopardising Russian military operations within Ukraine.
I'm not justifying the annexation -- it was clearly illegal and the circumstances of the (also illegal) vote suggest fraud -- but Ukraine is not part of NATO and even an all-out undeniable Russian invasion wouldn't trigger a war with NATO.
Is it in NATO's interests if Russia fully invades or goes to war with Ukraine? No, of course not. Is it a violation of international law? Most likely so. But would this trigger any international treaties that would result in WW3? Hell no.
WW1 and WW2 weren't just escalated because The Good Guys were unhappy with the aggressors. They were escalated because of international treaties forcing nations to declare war in retaliation to the aggressors.
In WW2 the invasion of Poland triggered the defensive pact with Britain and France who declared war after setting an ultimatum. As for WW1, I think most people have heard of the complete clusterfuck of international alliances and naivety that resulted in that escalation[1].
Ukraine is not part of the EU. Ukraine is not part of NATO. Strategic position aside, there's little reason for NATO to get involved as long as Russia has no intentions of moving further westwards. Even if the US invaded directly and declared war on Russia this wouldn't trigger NATO as NATO is a defensive pact, not an aggressive pact. It would of course result in a lot of diplomatic tensions with so many US military bases being located in the EU.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_Crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_Crisis
- lmm 8y agoWhat about the Budapest Memorandum?
- mikeash 8y agoIt does not require other nations to defend Ukraine from a non-nuclear attack.
- dsfyu404ed 8y agoWhile not required in a legal sense they certainly might do so anyway. Ukraine is as entitled to it's sovereignty as any other nation. Just letting the Russians steamroll Ukraine is equally irresponsible. Germany, France, etc are going to (rightfully) have a very, very hard time tolerating (i.e. not coming to the aid of Ukraine) that kind of belligerent behavior in Europe.
- nradov 8y agoNo country is entitled to sovereignty. Sovereignty isn't given, it's taken by force. What Russia did by invading Ukraine was terrible, but the Ukrainians essentially let their own country disintegrate and failed to maintain even the slightest deterrent. Coming to their rescue now would create a huge moral hazard: other countries in the region might think they no longer have to defend themselves against Russian aggression because if they get into trouble them NATO will ride in to save them.
- mikeash 8y agoI was specifically addressing the Budapest Memorandum. It often gets brought up under the mistaken belief that it requires the signatories to defend Ukraine, and thus that the other signatories are in violation for not defending Ukraine against Russia.
- pluma 8y agoUkraine is not part of Europe as far as "Germany, France, etc" are concerned. These countries are concerned about the interests of the EU. Also, most of the EU has strong trade relationships with Russia (e.g. via Gazprom). As long as Russia does not pose a direct threat to the EU, there's very little incentive to jeopardize trade relationships to uphold ideals in foreign countries.
- dsfyu404ed 8y agoWhile a war might not be triggered in a WW1-esque "if X then Y" sense it may very well happen anyway. Ukraine is as entitled to it's sovereignty as any other nation. Just letting the Russians steamroll Ukraine is not exactly a good solution either. Germany, France, England, etc. are going to (rightfully) have a very, very hard time tolerating (i.e. not coming to the aid of Ukraine) that kind of belligerent behavior in Europe. If there were Russian tanks in Kiev the NATO states east of Germany would all but demand a military reaction because of the dangerous to them precedent that allowing an invasion (even if the invaded nation is not a NATO member) to go unopposed would set.
- pluma 8y agoWhat gives you the idea any military intervention is ever based on protecting a random country's sovereignty? What incentive would NATO or the EU have to join Ukraine if this escalates to a direct military confrontation between Ukraine and Russia? Yeah, having Ukraine be annexed by Russia would be a pity but if history has taught us anything a) Russia is too clever to do this without some level of deniability (see the "secession" of the Crimean prior to its annexation) and b) other countries are reluctant to get involved as long as the situation is "self-contained" (i.e. as long as it's just Ukraine and similar post-Soviet states with no direct ties to NATO members or the EU).