6 ms·

It is amazing that around 2007 the US had declining oil production, an oil price shock and peak oil scare which probably were the primary reasons for the invasi

by izend 8y ago

It is amazing that around 2007 the US had declining oil production, an oil price shock and peak oil scare which probably were the primary reasons for the invasion of Iraq and terrible ethanol and biofuel policies. Now, there is talk of the US not requiring any imported oil by 2025 (not sure if that counts imports from the biggest supplier Canada), how times change due to a technological advancement in drilling practices. I believe US foreign policy will potentially have very large changes due to their new found energy independence.

andrepd 8y ago
Don't forget political will to disregard the consequences and externalities of such drilling practices.
- CarVac 8y ago
  Re: externalities Check out what fracking has done to Pennsylvania's formerly wild forests compared to New York; there is a hideously ugly network of access roads and cut clearings for fracking wells . https://www.google.com/maps/@41.9889724,-78.7814974,8036m/data=!3m1!1e3 https://www.google.com/maps/@41.9889724,-78.7814974,8036m/da... My friend pointed this out to me and I was truly disgusted...
  - hervature 8y ago
    Well, it could be worse as seen in such "formerly wild forests" of New York. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Manhattan,+New+York,+NY,+USA/@40.7591704,-74.0392715,18362m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x89c2588f046ee661:0xa0b3281fcecc08c!8m2!3d40.7831411!4d-73.9709473 https://www.google.com/maps/place/Manhattan,+New+York,+NY,+U...
  - whynotminot 8y ago
    Disgusted by some roads?
  - snowwindwaves 8y ago
    Same with all of british columbia, logging roads everywhere
    - DrPhish 8y ago
      At least that's for logging and not fracking. Logging sequesters millions of cubic meters of carbon (trees), and the BC forest license program requires audited 3rd party replanting, ensuring continuously increasing sequestration. Even the amount of carbon sequestered in wooden telephone poles across North America is staggering, let alone houses and other structures.
  - slavik81 8y ago
    Here's the same place, just zoomed out a little: https://www.google.com/maps/@41.9889724,-78.7814974,128506m/data=!3m1!1e3 https://www.google.com/maps/@41.9889724,-78.7814974,128506m/... Pretty much everything that's light green on that map is forest that was cleared for farmland. By 1872, the eastern states had cleared 52% of their forests, mostly for agriculture. Habitat destruction is an underappreciated problem, but let's keep things in perspective. Those dirt access roads are narrow strips of forest, and they'll be quickly overgrown once they're abandoned.
wahern 8y ago
"The ultimate irony is that what created the U.S. energy revolution—nimble, private-sector companies using new technologies to extract previously untapped crude—keeps the United States from wielding its energy strength in the way that Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other big producers with state-owned firms willing to put geopolitics above profits do." https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/11/14/why-american-oil-hasnt-been-a-total-game-changer/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/11/14/why-american-oil-hasnt-...
- khuey 8y ago
  The US has other more conventional levers of international power to wield. Taking oil off the table is a win for the US.
jedberg 8y ago
Credit where credit is due: It was because of the Bush administration’s policies around the strategic reserve and opening drilling that got us off of our dependence on middle eastern oil. I’m no fan of the Bush admin, but this is one of the few things they probably got right.
- behringer 8y ago
  Except for the irreparable environmental impact of it all...
  - jedberg 8y ago
    Certainly true, but more complex than it may seem. How much environmental damage has been saved by not having to ship oil from the middle east and not propping up those countries and all of the environmental damage they do? I don't think it's possible to know.
- ImprovedSilence 8y ago
  Meh, I'd rather keep ours in the ground and be the last to run out. Maybe that's a selfish and defeatist mindset, but it's another way to look at things besides just "lets not ruin our own environment".
  - oh_sigh 8y ago
    "Last to run out" makes it sound like oil will be increasingly valuable as time goes on. What if you leave yours in the ground, and eventually it is worth almost nothing, because the world has moved on?
    - Baeocystin 8y ago
      Oil has much greater economic value when used as a feedstock for non-fuel purposes. It is almost certainly a better idea to let any reserves you possibly can stay in the ground for as long as possible, and let everyone else sell theirs for cheap first.
NeedMoreTea 8y ago
A huge part is not about energy. As the American Chemistry Council are delighted to tell, $200bn has been invested since 2010 in increased production from fracking for ethane and other products for plastics and chemicals[0]. Yet they still find it necessary to campaign against chemical regulations and restrictions on plastic carrier bags. So we're still accelerating nicely towards that precipice. [0] https://www.americanchemistry.com/Media/PressReleasesTranscripts/ACC-news-releases/US-Chemical-Industry-Investment-Linked-to-Shale-Gas-Reaches-200-Billion.html https://www.americanchemistry.com/Media/PressReleasesTranscr...
oh_sigh 8y ago
When did America invade Iraq post 2007?
zorga 8y ago
> I believe US foreign policy will potentially have very large changes due to their new found energy independence. Yup, that was the one of the main reasons we bore the cost of being the world's policeman and securing global shipping routes. We're going to largely stop doing that, and turn inward, leaving the rest of the world to scramble over how to secure shipping routes on their own resulting in new alliances. The oil will start flowing to China mostly and Russia will expand its borders by force. China will be too busy trying to stop its fake economy from crashing to care.
freeflight 8y ago
> how times change due to a technological advancement in drilling practices. Is it really just that or maybe also the erosion of environmental protections? [0] [0] https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id/10665.pdf https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id/10665.pdf
thanosnose 8y ago
> I believe US foreign policy will potentially have very large changes due to their new found energy independence. It's possible but I think corporate interests, rather than our energy independence, will be the driving force of US foreign policy as it had been in the past. As long as banks, oil companies, etc stand to make a lot of money in the middle east, our foreign policy won't change much.

by izend 8y ago

andrepd 8y ago

Don't forget political will to disregard the consequences and externalities of such drilling practices.

CarVac 8y ago
Re: externalities Check out what fracking has done to Pennsylvania's formerly wild forests compared to New York; there is a hideously ugly network of access roads and cut clearings for fracking wells . https://www.google.com/maps/@41.9889724,-78.7814974,8036m/data=!3m1!1e3 https://www.google.com/maps/@41.9889724,-78.7814974,8036m/da... My friend pointed this out to me and I was truly disgusted...
- hervature 8y ago
  Well, it could be worse as seen in such "formerly wild forests" of New York. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Manhattan,+New+York,+NY,+USA/@40.7591704,-74.0392715,18362m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x89c2588f046ee661:0xa0b3281fcecc08c!8m2!3d40.7831411!4d-73.9709473 https://www.google.com/maps/place/Manhattan,+New+York,+NY,+U...
- whynotminot 8y ago
  Disgusted by some roads?
- snowwindwaves 8y ago
  Same with all of british columbia, logging roads everywhere
  - DrPhish 8y ago
    At least that's for logging and not fracking. Logging sequesters millions of cubic meters of carbon (trees), and the BC forest license program requires audited 3rd party replanting, ensuring continuously increasing sequestration. Even the amount of carbon sequestered in wooden telephone poles across North America is staggering, let alone houses and other structures.
- slavik81 8y ago
  Here's the same place, just zoomed out a little: https://www.google.com/maps/@41.9889724,-78.7814974,128506m/data=!3m1!1e3 https://www.google.com/maps/@41.9889724,-78.7814974,128506m/... Pretty much everything that's light green on that map is forest that was cleared for farmland. By 1872, the eastern states had cleared 52% of their forests, mostly for agriculture. Habitat destruction is an underappreciated problem, but let's keep things in perspective. Those dirt access roads are narrow strips of forest, and they'll be quickly overgrown once they're abandoned.

wahern 8y ago

"The ultimate irony is that what created the U.S. energy revolution—nimble, private-sector companies using new technologies to extract previously untapped crude—keeps the United States from wielding its energy strength in the way that Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other big producers with state-owned firms willing to put geopolitics above profits do." https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/11/14/why-american-oil-hasnt-been-a-total-game-changer/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/11/14/why-american-oil-hasnt-...

khuey 8y ago
The US has other more conventional levers of international power to wield. Taking oil off the table is a win for the US.

jedberg 8y ago

Credit where credit is due: It was because of the Bush administration’s policies around the strategic reserve and opening drilling that got us off of our dependence on middle eastern oil. I’m no fan of the Bush admin, but this is one of the few things they probably got right.

behringer 8y ago
Except for the irreparable environmental impact of it all...
- jedberg 8y ago
  Certainly true, but more complex than it may seem. How much environmental damage has been saved by not having to ship oil from the middle east and not propping up those countries and all of the environmental damage they do? I don't think it's possible to know.
ImprovedSilence 8y ago
Meh, I'd rather keep ours in the ground and be the last to run out. Maybe that's a selfish and defeatist mindset, but it's another way to look at things besides just "lets not ruin our own environment".
- oh_sigh 8y ago
  "Last to run out" makes it sound like oil will be increasingly valuable as time goes on. What if you leave yours in the ground, and eventually it is worth almost nothing, because the world has moved on?
  - Baeocystin 8y ago
    Oil has much greater economic value when used as a feedstock for non-fuel purposes. It is almost certainly a better idea to let any reserves you possibly can stay in the ground for as long as possible, and let everyone else sell theirs for cheap first.

NeedMoreTea 8y ago

A huge part is not about energy. As the American Chemistry Council are delighted to tell, $200bn has been invested since 2010 in increased production from fracking for ethane and other products for plastics and chemicals[0]. Yet they still find it necessary to campaign against chemical regulations and restrictions on plastic carrier bags. So we're still accelerating nicely towards that precipice. [0] https://www.americanchemistry.com/Media/PressReleasesTranscripts/ACC-news-releases/US-Chemical-Industry-Investment-Linked-to-Shale-Gas-Reaches-200-Billion.html https://www.americanchemistry.com/Media/PressReleasesTranscr...

oh_sigh 8y ago

When did America invade Iraq post 2007?

zorga 8y ago

> I believe US foreign policy will potentially have very large changes due to their new found energy independence. Yup, that was the one of the main reasons we bore the cost of being the world's policeman and securing global shipping routes. We're going to largely stop doing that, and turn inward, leaving the rest of the world to scramble over how to secure shipping routes on their own resulting in new alliances. The oil will start flowing to China mostly and Russia will expand its borders by force. China will be too busy trying to stop its fake economy from crashing to care.

freeflight 8y ago

> how times change due to a technological advancement in drilling practices. Is it really just that or maybe also the erosion of environmental protections? [0] [0] https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id/10665.pdf https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/id/10665.pdf

thanosnose 8y ago

> I believe US foreign policy will potentially have very large changes due to their new found energy independence. It's possible but I think corporate interests, rather than our energy independence, will be the driving force of US foreign policy as it had been in the past. As long as banks, oil companies, etc stand to make a lot of money in the middle east, our foreign policy won't change much.