7 ms·

Blockchain sure, but why do you think self-driving is a bubble?

wpietri 8y ago
Exactly my question. I have yet to see real use cases for blockchains beyond speculation and some light crime. And I think true self-driving cars (SAE Level 5 in specific) are 10-30 years out. But I think there's enough value to be had in lower, more achieveable levels that I expect some of the companies investing in those technologies now will be long-term financial winners.
- golergka 8y ago
  Light crime, as in buying drugs, is one hell of a market. I don't have solid data, but it seems that 90-95% of all drug-related transactions go through bitcoin nowdays, at least on the consumer level.
  - ImADemocRat 8y ago
    You are so wrong that it is hilarious. Billy Joe buying heroin most likely has never owned any cryptocurrency. What part of your ass did you even pull this from?
  - detaro 8y ago
    I'd assume a large part of drug consumers still buys from their dealer in person, and why would you use Bitcoin then?
    - golergka 8y ago
      Among drug consumers I know personally or follow in social media, there's not a single one who buys in person. Compared to picking up a ziplock in designated location, it's unsafe to a ridiculous degree.
  - wpietri 8y ago
    It's a good market in some sense, but it's a bad market for businesses that want to do things like IPO. It's also not a great market for people who want to stay alive in that many existing competitors are known for their violence, and if they come after you calling the police is not a great idea.
- dclusin 8y ago
  There's probably a profitable use case in there somewhere for level 4 cars. I'm thinking office parks and corporate campuses. But I share this belief that self driving cars are way over-hyped and aren't going to be here any time soon.
  - IshKebab 8y ago
    That's what university research and small self driving cars people always say - "it'll be used at airports and campuses" - but in reality there are very few campuses that would benefit, and airports mostly already have internal transit solutions.
    - wpietri 8y ago
      Why do you say that few campuses would benefit? In San Francisco alone, USF, UCSF, SFSU, AAU, and CCA all have shuttles. And that's in a city with good public transit.
  - wpietri 8y ago
    As best I can tell, Waymo's upcoming service is Level 4 with a remote backup driver for times when the software can't cope.
- atomical 8y ago
  This sentiment on blockchain is posted very often. Have the authors studied all startups in the top 100 on CoinMarketCap? How about top 500? Yes, we've all met people who read about Bitcoin and Ethereum in the WSJ and felt incredibly smart when both declined from their highs. But what about the ICO money raised in 2018? It's likely over 5 billion at this point.
  - wpietri 8y ago
    Ah, the "there has to be a pony in there somewhere" [1] theory. Am I going to look at every MLM scheme or perpetual motion machine to explain in detail why this new one is just as bad as the rest? No. I looked at a bunch, formed a general impression and a reasonable theory as to why they're all bunk, and have stopped wasting my time. If somebody has a specific one that they'd like to argue is different I'm willing to listen. But I'm not going to look at 500 supposed startups and figure out the flaws one by one. [1] https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/12/13/pony-somewhere/ https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/12/13/pony-somewhere/
    - atomical 8y ago
      No, I'm merely saying you are uninformed and ignorant. That's all. If you aren't an expert don't bother postulating. We aren't here to do the research for you. Is Brendan Eich a scammer? Nope.
      - wpietri 8y ago
        Ah, now we're on to insults, plus the "great man can't be wrong" theory. Eich's a smart guy, no doubt, but that's not proof against error.
        atomical 8y ago
        You put zero effort into your comments. That is insulting. You asked for an example and I wasted my time giving you one.
  - 8y ago
- gammateam 8y ago
  Venture beyond the top 100 on coinmarketcap and you'll see some products that benefit from using a blockchain than not.
  - austhrow743 8y ago
    I've tried that and didn't find anything.care to share some examples?
    - fuxufu 8y ago
      Bernstein.io [1] is using it for patent and trade secrets verification. I've also seen an internal system with Merkle-tree-structures to verify digital safety inspections (e.g. that all devices can check the integretity of those checks and no supervisor can "modify" the database)
    - gammateam 8y ago
      https://blog.pareto.network/why-do-we-need-a-blockchain-for-this-44f5cddf68e2 https://blog.pareto.network/why-do-we-need-a-blockchain-for-...

Exactly my question. I have yet to see real use cases for blockchains beyond speculation and some light crime. And I think true self-driving cars (SAE Level 5 in specific) are 10-30 years out. But I think there's enough value to be had in lower, more achieveable levels that I expect some of the companies investing in those technologies now will be long-term financial winners.

golergka 8y ago
Light crime, as in buying drugs, is one hell of a market. I don't have solid data, but it seems that 90-95% of all drug-related transactions go through bitcoin nowdays, at least on the consumer level.
- ImADemocRat 8y ago
  You are so wrong that it is hilarious. Billy Joe buying heroin most likely has never owned any cryptocurrency. What part of your ass did you even pull this from?
- detaro 8y ago
  I'd assume a large part of drug consumers still buys from their dealer in person, and why would you use Bitcoin then?
  - golergka 8y ago
    Among drug consumers I know personally or follow in social media, there's not a single one who buys in person. Compared to picking up a ziplock in designated location, it's unsafe to a ridiculous degree.
- wpietri 8y ago
  It's a good market in some sense, but it's a bad market for businesses that want to do things like IPO. It's also not a great market for people who want to stay alive in that many existing competitors are known for their violence, and if they come after you calling the police is not a great idea.
dclusin 8y ago
There's probably a profitable use case in there somewhere for level 4 cars. I'm thinking office parks and corporate campuses. But I share this belief that self driving cars are way over-hyped and aren't going to be here any time soon.
- IshKebab 8y ago
  That's what university research and small self driving cars people always say - "it'll be used at airports and campuses" - but in reality there are very few campuses that would benefit, and airports mostly already have internal transit solutions.
  - wpietri 8y ago
    Why do you say that few campuses would benefit? In San Francisco alone, USF, UCSF, SFSU, AAU, and CCA all have shuttles. And that's in a city with good public transit.
- wpietri 8y ago
  As best I can tell, Waymo's upcoming service is Level 4 with a remote backup driver for times when the software can't cope.
atomical 8y ago
This sentiment on blockchain is posted very often. Have the authors studied all startups in the top 100 on CoinMarketCap? How about top 500? Yes, we've all met people who read about Bitcoin and Ethereum in the WSJ and felt incredibly smart when both declined from their highs. But what about the ICO money raised in 2018? It's likely over 5 billion at this point.
- wpietri 8y ago
  Ah, the "there has to be a pony in there somewhere" [1] theory. Am I going to look at every MLM scheme or perpetual motion machine to explain in detail why this new one is just as bad as the rest? No. I looked at a bunch, formed a general impression and a reasonable theory as to why they're all bunk, and have stopped wasting my time. If somebody has a specific one that they'd like to argue is different I'm willing to listen. But I'm not going to look at 500 supposed startups and figure out the flaws one by one. [1] https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/12/13/pony-somewhere/ https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/12/13/pony-somewhere/
  - atomical 8y ago
    No, I'm merely saying you are uninformed and ignorant. That's all. If you aren't an expert don't bother postulating. We aren't here to do the research for you. Is Brendan Eich a scammer? Nope.
    - wpietri 8y ago
      Ah, now we're on to insults, plus the "great man can't be wrong" theory. Eich's a smart guy, no doubt, but that's not proof against error.
      - atomical 8y ago
        You put zero effort into your comments. That is insulting. You asked for an example and I wasted my time giving you one.
- 8y ago
gammateam 8y ago
Venture beyond the top 100 on coinmarketcap and you'll see some products that benefit from using a blockchain than not.
- austhrow743 8y ago
  I've tried that and didn't find anything.care to share some examples?
  - fuxufu 8y ago
    Bernstein.io [1] is using it for patent and trade secrets verification. I've also seen an internal system with Merkle-tree-structures to verify digital safety inspections (e.g. that all devices can check the integretity of those checks and no supervisor can "modify" the database)
  - gammateam 8y ago
    https://blog.pareto.network/why-do-we-need-a-blockchain-for-this-44f5cddf68e2 https://blog.pareto.network/why-do-we-need-a-blockchain-for-...