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The article tries quite hard to link the falling demand for oil to the emergence of electric vehicles. But looking at the reduction in half of the usage of gaso

The article tries quite hard to link the falling demand for oil to the emergence of electric vehicles. But looking at the reduction in half of the usage of gasoline in Italy, I see that basically all of it happened prior to 2013, long before Model 3 was a thing. I found this interesting site [1] where you can see the gasoline consumption for every country between 1991 and 2012. And all big EU countries I looked at (Germany, France, UK, Italy) exhibited a steep decline between 1999 an 2012. This can't have anything to do with electric vehicles. Most likely it's the continuous improvements in car efficiency. To check this I went to edmunds.com [2] and I compared the same car between the 2004 and 2018. Here's what I got for the highway mileage for 3 random cars (in all cases I looked at the most basic model): - Mazda 3: 2004: 29 mpg ; 2018: 37 mpg - Toyota Camry: 2004: 29 mpg; 2018: 39 mpg - Ford Explorer: 2004: 19 mpg; 2018: 23 mpg That's an improvement between 21% and 34%. Not bad at all. [1] https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?country=de&product=gasoline&graph=consumption https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?country=de&product=gasoli... [2] https://www.edmunds.com/mazda/3/2017/sedan/ https://www.edmunds.com/mazda/3/2017/sedan/

jillesvangurp 8y ago
The article actually is forward looking and is making the point that oil demand is still growing and not yet falling. They cite and prominently feature this bit from the report the article is about: "Oil use for cars peaks in the mid-2020s, but petrochemicals, trucks, planes and ships still keep overall oil demand on a rising trend. Improvements in fuel efficiency in the conventional car fleet avoid three-times more in potential demand than the 3 million barrels per day (mb/d) displaced by 300 million electric cars on the road in 2040. " So yes, you are right fuel efficiency is a big factor; that's in fact exactly what the report says. However, the article then goes on to claim that the report's prediction of electric car growth is actually off and that the impact will be much larger and much sooner than the report predicts. They also call out the notion that electric buses are currently already having a bigger effect than electric cars. I think they are right and that there are more currently oil intensive sectors where electrification is going to have an impact in the near future. They then they get a bit hand wavy citing diesel demand declines in Germany that probably have much more to do with Diesel-gate and the sharp drop in demand in Italy, which in all likelihood has everything to do with the bad economy there and nothing whatsoever with electric cars. Also Germany is actually way behind in deploying electrical vehicles compared to e.g. the US, Scandinavia or the Netherlands. In my view the real drivers here are going to be economical and not environmental. E.g. buses burn a lot of diesel. Diesel is expensive. Electricity is not. Therefore any reasonably priced electric bus is going to be saving cost. Which is why that is already having an impact. The same is about to happen to most commercial operations involving cars. There are already police forces driving Teslas, which aside from being cool and good PR is also saving them a good bit on fuel. My bet is the taxi sector will start transitioning to being mostly electric in the next few years already. Fuel expenses are an enormous chunk of their margins. Same for local deliveries in cities. As long haul trucks become electric and self driving, that will also have a cost impact (eliminating the two single most cost factors of people and fuel). Aviation and shipping are next. That's starting to happen but will probably accelerate towards the end of next decade as technology matures. Also the economic life of such vehicles is much longer so this will happen slowly. But it's the same principle: fuel is by far the biggest cost factor and eliminating that changes the game. Right now going electric doesn't quite make sense everywhere yet but that abruptly changes as volumes go up, prices go down, electricity becomes cheaper, and infrastructure gets deployed. By 2040 it is not even going to be close in terms of cost advantage. I'd actually say that by 2025 it is going to be very uneconomical to be burning fuel in cars (it arguably already is today); downright silly by 2030, and completely bat-shit insane by 2040. Somewhere in that time line any manufacturers still depending on internal combustion engines will be wiped out by a near complete collapse of demand and their profit margins. That's why essentially all of them are simultaneously investing heavily to make that happen while downplaying how fast it is happening so they can buy some more time to make it happen. They are all scared shit-less this will happen before they are ready to deal with it. All this will also have an effect on oil production and related investments. In short, oil investors are already divesting. That cat is already out of the bag. Two things seem certain, decreasing demand and increased uncertainty over reliable supply and the resulting price volatility are going to be major concerns for anyone having oil as a dependency. It's not that there's not enough oil, it's more a matter of having an economic way of actually getting it to where it is needed at a predictable price.
- Markoff 8y ago
  why it's driving Tesla in police force cool? sounds to me like extreme waste of money for luxurious car for police force with unnecessary mileage within city, which it's why i saw in multiple European cities Nissan leaf, can't imagine public uproar if police would driving their assess in Tesla
aembleton 8y ago
That large reduction in Western Europe is probably caused by the switch towards diesel engines that I don't think that graph covers.
- Pica_soO 8y ago
  Yeah, the carbon reduction for a life-time reduction- some deals are hard. Imagine the consequences of climate change- and map them to a health affecting thing- how expensive is it?
- paulddraper 8y ago
  And then now the effort is to switch from diesel to petrol (or other things). [1] What's old is new again. [1] https://qz.com/1183779/europes-intoxicating-love-affair-with-diesel-is-dying-out/ https://qz.com/1183779/europes-intoxicating-love-affair-with...
adventured 8y ago
The article wasn't specifically linking the decline to the Model 3 at all. They give electrified buses the primary credit among vehicles, noting that EV passenger vehicles are expected to have a large impact going forward. I'd bet that diesel vehicles had more to do with the big decline in Italy, and the smaller decline in Germany, than anything else. For example, this EU diesel consumption chart showing a correlation on timing between the drop in gasoline consumption and the rise in diesel previously: https://i.imgur.com/qV3CxY1.png https://i.imgur.com/qV3CxY1.png I'd be very curious to see if Germany's drop in gasoline consumption coincided with an increase in diesel consumption. The large diesel vehicle boom perfectly coincides with Italy's drop in gasoline consumption: https://i.imgur.com/UGVFxt6.png https://i.imgur.com/UGVFxt6.png Italy went from ~33% of new cars being diesel, to ~60% in only four years. Germany went from ~30% of new cars being diesel, to ~48%, in just seven years. The UK went from 15% to 50% over a decade.
- fyfy18 8y ago
  For US readers, diesel cars are around 30% more economical than petrol cars, and most European countries charge less tax on diesel, meaning it is 5-20% cheaper at the pump (diesel costs more to make than petrol, but in Europe taxes make up ~60% of transport fuel costs). I wonder if overall the economic benefits were worth it, based on what evidence is coming to light regarding the health effects of diesel vs petrol.
  - pgeorgi 8y ago
    > regarding the health effects of diesel vs petrol There's a known solution to sort out the SO2 emission, but it would cost a bit more. The problem isn't pushing diesel over petrol, the problem is letting the car vendors cheat so blatantly, apparently with political backing (in Germany at least).
    - idontpost 8y ago
      > There's a known solution to sort out the SO2 emission, but it would cost a bit more. Not if you're Volkswagen.
bufferoverflow 8y ago
Recently got a Toyota Verso, and was shocked to find out it averages 62.8 mpg [1]. And it really is that efficient. [1] https://blog.toyota.co.uk/honest-john-honours-toyota-verso-for-best-real-world-mpg-performance https://blog.toyota.co.uk/honest-john-honours-toyota-verso-f...
- aembleton 8y ago
  That's 62.8 UK mpg which is 52.3 US mpg.
  - ithkuil 8y ago
    TIL US liquid gallon != US dry gallon != Imperial gallon...
    - Ensorceled 8y ago
      That’s insane! We should really come up with some kind of standardized system, a world wide metric if you will.
      - beefield 8y ago
        But... all these gallons are much more easy to relate to than a standard metric liter, thus making all of them superior. If you do not believe me, ask Nassim Nicholas Taleb[1]. [1] https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=metric%20system%20taleb https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=metric%20system%20tale...
        josho 8y ago
        It is a skill. And a rather easy one to learn. E.g. I’ve completed some basic carpentry projects. At the start I couldn’t have told you how much ⅛ of an inch was. Now I’ve got a good feel for that length. There is no reason why I couldn’t have learned what ½cm looks like instead as both are equally arbitrary.
AnthonyMouse 8y ago
> That's an improvement between 21% and 34%. Not bad at all. It's not, though your sample is somewhat optimistic. For most vehicles it's closer to 20% than 34. The interesting point is that electric cars don't reduce oil consumption by ~20%, they reduce it by ~100% (or ~99.5% since 0.5% of US electricity comes from oil). That's about to be a dramatic drop in oil consumption as they come to be even a significant minority of vehicles.
- FullyFunctional 8y ago
  Nit: 99.5% doesn't account for the far greater efficiency of the EVs themselves, typically 100+ MPGe, thus the true reduction is even closer to 100% (fwiw, my roof produces all of my EV consumption most of the year).
- sah2ed 8y ago
  > The interesting point is that electric cars don't reduce oil consumption by ~20%, they reduce it by ~100% (or ~99.5% since 0.5% of US electricity comes from oil). In aggregate, oil consumption may drop, but it doesn't account for the possibility that fossil fuel consumption (natural gas, coal) in the energy mix of power generation will rise to meet the increased electricity demands from charging electric cars at home and workplaces. At least, until we completely figure out an efficient way to harness renewable energy like solar inside (swappable) batteries.
  - AnthonyMouse 8y ago
    > In aggregate, oil consumption may drop, but it doesn't account for the possibility that fossil fuel consumption (natural gas, coal) in the energy mix of power generation will rise to meet the increased electricity demands from charging electric cars at home and workplaces. That's a relevant distinction for climate change, not if you're an oil company, or Russia and OPEC. Pre-tax oil prices are liable to trend lower -- and give countries an opportunity to raise fuel taxes without causing significant consumer harm, reducing oil demand even further. And the capacity increase is poised to come from mostly non-fossil sources anyway. Expanding coal is preposterous -- solar is already cheaper and the only people who don't hate it for five different reasons are coal mining companies. Natural gas might be expanded somewhat, but even there solar is cheaper, and anyway natural gas releases less carbon per KWh than oil (much less coal) even before accounting for the greater efficiency of electric vehicles. > At least, until we completely figure out an efficient way to harness renewable energy like solar inside (swappable) batteries. Electric cars already do this. The batteries hold more charge than the average daily commute, so all that's required is to charge the vehicle during daylight hours.
roenxi 8y ago
Let's be cautious attributing things to 'efficiency improvements' - that is a minefield of ways to be wrong [0]. Is it not a reasonable theory that the tailing off of demand is linked to increasing real prices of gasoline [1]? That seems like a simple and obvious explanation to me. I don't know if my source is particularly reliable, but real petrol prices have been all over the shop in recent years. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox [1] https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-prices/inflation-adjusted-gasoline-prices/ https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-prices...
- fpoling 8y ago
  That and introduction of road tolls and paid entrance to city centers across Europe.
danielharan 8y ago
Beyond cars getting more efficient, a lot of cities have also dramatically reduced their share of trips made by car. Paris reduced car mode share by 45% since 1990: https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/01/the-automotive-liberation-of-paris/550718/ https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/01/the-automotiv...
- flexie 8y ago
  And people stay in (inner) cities longer. Before, people had kids earlier and they moved to the suburbs when they had kids. Now they have kids later and more and more stay in the city even after having kids.
  - fpoling 8y ago
    In Norway in cities a lot of new apartments are OK even for families with 3-4 kids. As a result some schools in the cities previously considered for closing down became overcrowded. And this is really a new development. Even twenty years ago a big family implied moving to a suburb.
    - lifeisstillgood 8y ago
      How can the apartment work for 5 or 6 people? Are apartments simply larger, or is it a sort of make do with less space Tokyo wise thing?
      - fpoling 8y ago
        The apartments became bigger, over 100 square meters or 1000 square feet’s.
        lifeisstillgood 8y ago
        And consequently more expensive? I mean raising children in the city is usually a question of paying a lot of money or living three to a bed. This does not sound like a public policy solution, but parents paid more for bigger flats
Foivos 8y ago
At least in Greece, where the fleet is in general older than other more developed countries, the steep decline in the last few years can be attributed to price (taxes mostly). I remember when I got my license around 2008 everybody was freaking out in the idea that the price would approach 1 euro per litre. Now after years of recession the price casually goes to 1.80 especially in the islands. So people just drive less and also more reasonably (not fast accelerations, showing off etc.). A welcome side effect is the big reduction in road accidents.
- cbg0 8y ago
  > the steep decline in the last few years can be attributed to price High unemployment rate is also a very likely culprit: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?id=LRUN64TTGRA156N&nsh=1 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?id=LRUN64TTG...
- kristopolous 8y ago
  Just to make Americans reading this lives easier, I did the math, 1.8 euros/litre is $7.77/gallon.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
ddingus 8y ago
I recently rented some Hyundai car for a trip to Seattle. Driving reasonably, that car got 54Mpg average on that trip. My old Honda 2001 gets between 35 and 40Mpg consistently.
ajeet_dhaliwal 8y ago
Besides better mpg the steep decline between 1999 and 2012 could be affected by the internet. Not just remote work but just how you don’t have to physically travel to get information or get things processed any more.
- eecc 8y ago
  And online shopping. It used to be normal to drive everywhere to just have a look, but today all but the most important purchases are done online and delivered. The efficiency of this is significant
philjohn 8y ago
I can attest to this - my 2014 Diesel UK Ford Focus returns (real) 62-64 MPG on my commute, I can get it over 70MPG if I hypermile.
progressiveweb 8y ago
I agree. The author has no understanding of the history of the automotive industry. We've seen this hype phase before returning to reality. The truth is that gasoline is still king because it is the fastest way to recharge your car. Manufacturing process and incremental improvements have made combustion engine far more efficient and cleaner. It's likely that this trend will not weaken, instead get even more boost more than ever because it offers a cheap alternative to electric cars. Coupled with a low oil price, we aren't going to see combustion cars disappear like HN folks would have you believe, instead we will see consumers voting with their money. At some point we will see combustion engine that approach somewhere a bit shorter than the 80~85% theoretical limit of combustion engine efficiency, but that is still an insane improvement to what we already have. I don't disagree that electric cars will get more popular, but a cheap oil price and highly efficient combustion engine that is coming is not going to lead to an apocalyptic future where sportscar owners are banished to remote islands, free to cause all the pollution they want. "but we have over 60% efficiency from our combustion engine!" they yell to no avail. The silence of electric cars whirring in the cities snuffs out Doug Demuro's fans.
- thinkcontext 8y ago
  Its by no means certain that ICEs will get sufficient investment to improve as much as you say. Dieselgate, carbon taxes and outright bans in much of the developed byworld, China and India choked with pollution make it a risky proposition. Even if ICE efficiency can improve substantially, can it match the rate at which the price of batteries is falling? Morgan Stanley predicts EVs will reach price parity with ICE in 2025 and then continue to get cheaper. https://insideevs.com/morgan-stanley-evs-price-parity-ice-2025/ https://insideevs.com/morgan-stanley-evs-price-parity-ice-20... Add to that cheaper fuel and maintenance. I think you are being too optimistic about ICE's future.
  - olivermarks 8y ago
    Hybrid ICE is the future IMO. EV"s will be a niche market for short range, low use transportation.
  - hummingurban 8y ago
mrfusion 8y ago
Can anyone detail what technology breakthroughs got these mileages so high?
- gameswithgo 8y ago
  Over the past 10 years or so there are two main things: 1. various technologies to vary cam timing and lift, which allows you to keep the engine efficient over a wider range of rpms. Forms of this have been around a long time but they are become more widespread and more capable. 2. direct injection - where some or all of the fuel injectors inject directly into the cyclinder, rather than into the intake manifold just before the cylinder. Because the fuel can be added just when you want it to ignite, you can leverage higher compression ratios and/or turbo chargers without pre-ignition on top of this there have been some small improvements in tire CRR, aerodynamics, materials. But a lot of the use of lightweight materials seems to coincide with also making the cars bigger. They certainly haven't gotten lighter overall! If cars had stayed the same dimensions since the 1980s, the fuel economy savings would seen WAY more amazing.
- prostoalex 8y ago
  As of lately plug-in hybrids prioritize using the battery pack over gasoline. While the electric ranges are nowhere near Tesla models, 42 miles of pure-electric on Honda Clarity Hybrid, 25 miles on Toyota Prius Plug-In, and 29 miles on Hyundai Ioniq Plug-In, it's good enough for most people's short trips and the cars are cheap enough to be appealing to commuters.
- rsync 8y ago
  "Can anyone detail what technology breakthroughs got these mileages so high?" I am not speaking of hybrid cars where the technology change is obvious - I am speaking only of pure ICE cars. The "technology", where there is any at all, consists of mostly petty optimizations to the existing ICE model ... engine start/stop at intersections, cylinder deactivation at cruising speeds[1], optimizations to cam timing and making the fuel injection system behave more like a Diesel engine, even when it is a gasoline engine. Again, all petty optimizations that don't represent any interesting technology and I find it laughable to see car advertisements in 2018 for various aspects of the engine/drivetrain. The real gains have been from switching 6-cylinder, 3.x Liter engines out for 4-cylinder 2.x Liter engines and attempting to make up the difference with turbo and super chargers (sometimes both!)[2]. The end result is what you would expect to see in a mature, already optimized, already spec'd technology: very small incremental gains that have large tradeoffs in other areas. These little 2L 4-bangers are loud, they vibrate a lot, and they're going to be very finicky in terms of maintenance when the dual turbo/super chargers get to 8 and 10 years old. I can't wait to never see any of them again. [1] I think this is only applied to 8 cylinder engines which are turned into 4 cylinder engines at highway cruising speeds. [2] ... and generally failing. I hope this "wisdom" is lost to time because we move away from ICE cars entirely, but for anyone still interested: "There's no replacement for displacement".
gameswithgo 8y ago
Increases in car efficiency don't necessarily result in less use of gasoline, often it results in more, due to Jevon's Paradox. Perhaps EU countries raised gasoline taxes in that period, or people got poorer.
- geitir 8y ago
  Sorry but maybe that holds for a smaller increase of efficiency but I highly doubt that's true for 20%+
- lostapathy 8y ago
  Maybe we passed the limits of Jevon’s paradox? There are practical limits to how much time a person can drive, or how much they can consume. I know I personally passed the point several years ago where I want to spend less time in a car, regadless of price.
- lozenge 8y ago
  The main limit in EU countries is the road space. There's very few areas designed to take as many cars as the US.
ransom1538 8y ago
- Honda Civic Coupe HF 4 cylinder (M5) 1985: 49 mpg [1] Pretty soon we will be as good as 1985. https://www.mpgomatic.com/2007/10/16/honda-civic-gas-mileage-1978-2007/ https://www.mpgomatic.com/2007/10/16/honda-civic-gas-mileage...
- Shivetya 8y ago
  However the means of measurement for mileage has changed since then and is more strict. You can go to [1] for more information but that 51mpg car is now 43mpg now. [1]https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/comparempg.shtml?words=#id=18 https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/comparempg.shtml?words=#id=1...
- thedrbrian 8y ago
  If only 1985 could catch up to our NVH , safety and emissions.
- acomjean 8y ago
  the same car model name gets much bigger and more powerful over time. Usually a new model is inserted under the existing one, for honda its the "fit". 1985 civic was quite small, about 150" in length and small engines usually < 100 horsepower. the new civic is (169.3 in) 4,300 mm, considerable larger. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Civic_(third_generation) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Civic_(third_generation) you can see the evolution in civic size by car generation here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Civic#Ninth_generation_(2012–2015) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Civic#Ninth_generation_(...
- srcmap 8y ago
  Got a Honda Clarity Hybrid Plugin for ~two months. I have been using the electric mode. Don't have to fill the gas tank after ~1800 miles. Used only ~1-2 galleon of gas because I wasn't too sure about the setup initially. It has electric range of 48 miles - perfect for the daily commute ~30 miles round trip. A nice gas option is there just in case the battery is gone - which I used couple time. The charge point app shows that the car took in 169KWHr in Oct. I figure if it is charged at home 15c / KWHr = ~$23. That's 50% to 75% cheaper than my last commuting car's gas cost. I am doing my share to reduce the oil demand.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
baybal2 8y ago
1. Cars are getting smaller, and more efficient 2. Fewer people use private transport because public transport is slowly improving in Western countries 3. More people elect to own mopeds, which eat like 10 times less gas than a car 4. More people move to big cities, pushing even bigger incentives to abandon private vehicle ownership
olivermarks 8y ago
As well as ice and hybrid cars being vastly more fuel efficient, our habits have changed. Far more working remotely and buying products online has reduced commuting and drives to the mall and specialist stores.
matchagaucho 8y ago
63% of US electricity is powered by fossil fuel. Electric cars need to recharge. This article doesn't recognize the trade-off of increased demand on the power grid, and source of that fuel.
- FullyFunctional 8y ago
  FUD. Even if all the electricity was generated with petrol, it would still be a win because EVs are way more efficient than gas cars, typically 100+ MPGe.
- rfeather 8y ago
  The article doesn't talk about greenhouse gas emissions, so the power grid and fuel source isn't really relevant to the point, especially since oil is an extremely small part of the energy mixture in most places.[1] If they were talking about greenhouse gases, then the answer seems to be that it depends on where you live and how/what you drive, but an electric vehicle almost always produces less emissions than an equivalent gas powered one. [2] does a decent job explaining though I feel he leaves a few parts out for the sake of clarity. For example, driving a P100D isn't the equivalent of driving the average car. It's more like driving a sports sedan (like a BMW M5), so those sorts of vehicles would probably be a more fair comparison. In the same vane, the whole US car fleet includes lots of SUVs and other trucks, which if there were equivalent electric models, would obviously not go as far as a Leaf. It would be great if there was a US calculator that worked like [3] does for the UK so that we could do the same sort of comparison based on the mix where we live. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_generation#Production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_generation#Product... [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RhtiPefVzM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RhtiPefVzM [3]https://www.nextgreencar.com/tools/emissions-calculator/ https://www.nextgreencar.com/tools/emissions-calculator/

jillesvangurp 8y ago

The article actually is forward looking and is making the point that oil demand is still growing and not yet falling. They cite and prominently feature this bit from the report the article is about: "Oil use for cars peaks in the mid-2020s, but petrochemicals, trucks, planes and ships still keep overall oil demand on a rising trend. Improvements in fuel efficiency in the conventional car fleet avoid three-times more in potential demand than the 3 million barrels per day (mb/d) displaced by 300 million electric cars on the road in 2040. " So yes, you are right fuel efficiency is a big factor; that's in fact exactly what the report says. However, the article then goes on to claim that the report's prediction of electric car growth is actually off and that the impact will be much larger and much sooner than the report predicts. They also call out the notion that electric buses are currently already having a bigger effect than electric cars. I think they are right and that there are more currently oil intensive sectors where electrification is going to have an impact in the near future. They then they get a bit hand wavy citing diesel demand declines in Germany that probably have much more to do with Diesel-gate and the sharp drop in demand in Italy, which in all likelihood has everything to do with the bad economy there and nothing whatsoever with electric cars. Also Germany is actually way behind in deploying electrical vehicles compared to e.g. the US, Scandinavia or the Netherlands. In my view the real drivers here are going to be economical and not environmental. E.g. buses burn a lot of diesel. Diesel is expensive. Electricity is not. Therefore any reasonably priced electric bus is going to be saving cost. Which is why that is already having an impact. The same is about to happen to most commercial operations involving cars. There are already police forces driving Teslas, which aside from being cool and good PR is also saving them a good bit on fuel. My bet is the taxi sector will start transitioning to being mostly electric in the next few years already. Fuel expenses are an enormous chunk of their margins. Same for local deliveries in cities. As long haul trucks become electric and self driving, that will also have a cost impact (eliminating the two single most cost factors of people and fuel). Aviation and shipping are next. That's starting to happen but will probably accelerate towards the end of next decade as technology matures. Also the economic life of such vehicles is much longer so this will happen slowly. But it's the same principle: fuel is by far the biggest cost factor and eliminating that changes the game. Right now going electric doesn't quite make sense everywhere yet but that abruptly changes as volumes go up, prices go down, electricity becomes cheaper, and infrastructure gets deployed. By 2040 it is not even going to be close in terms of cost advantage. I'd actually say that by 2025 it is going to be very uneconomical to be burning fuel in cars (it arguably already is today); downright silly by 2030, and completely bat-shit insane by 2040. Somewhere in that time line any manufacturers still depending on internal combustion engines will be wiped out by a near complete collapse of demand and their profit margins. That's why essentially all of them are simultaneously investing heavily to make that happen while downplaying how fast it is happening so they can buy some more time to make it happen. They are all scared shit-less this will happen before they are ready to deal with it. All this will also have an effect on oil production and related investments. In short, oil investors are already divesting. That cat is already out of the bag. Two things seem certain, decreasing demand and increased uncertainty over reliable supply and the resulting price volatility are going to be major concerns for anyone having oil as a dependency. It's not that there's not enough oil, it's more a matter of having an economic way of actually getting it to where it is needed at a predictable price.

Markoff 8y ago
why it's driving Tesla in police force cool? sounds to me like extreme waste of money for luxurious car for police force with unnecessary mileage within city, which it's why i saw in multiple European cities Nissan leaf, can't imagine public uproar if police would driving their assess in Tesla

aembleton 8y ago

That large reduction in Western Europe is probably caused by the switch towards diesel engines that I don't think that graph covers.

Pica_soO 8y ago
Yeah, the carbon reduction for a life-time reduction- some deals are hard. Imagine the consequences of climate change- and map them to a health affecting thing- how expensive is it?
paulddraper 8y ago
And then now the effort is to switch from diesel to petrol (or other things). [1] What's old is new again. [1] https://qz.com/1183779/europes-intoxicating-love-affair-with-diesel-is-dying-out/ https://qz.com/1183779/europes-intoxicating-love-affair-with...

adventured 8y ago

The article wasn't specifically linking the decline to the Model 3 at all. They give electrified buses the primary credit among vehicles, noting that EV passenger vehicles are expected to have a large impact going forward. I'd bet that diesel vehicles had more to do with the big decline in Italy, and the smaller decline in Germany, than anything else. For example, this EU diesel consumption chart showing a correlation on timing between the drop in gasoline consumption and the rise in diesel previously: https://i.imgur.com/qV3CxY1.png https://i.imgur.com/qV3CxY1.png I'd be very curious to see if Germany's drop in gasoline consumption coincided with an increase in diesel consumption. The large diesel vehicle boom perfectly coincides with Italy's drop in gasoline consumption: https://i.imgur.com/UGVFxt6.png https://i.imgur.com/UGVFxt6.png Italy went from ~33% of new cars being diesel, to ~60% in only four years. Germany went from ~30% of new cars being diesel, to ~48%, in just seven years. The UK went from 15% to 50% over a decade.

fyfy18 8y ago
For US readers, diesel cars are around 30% more economical than petrol cars, and most European countries charge less tax on diesel, meaning it is 5-20% cheaper at the pump (diesel costs more to make than petrol, but in Europe taxes make up ~60% of transport fuel costs). I wonder if overall the economic benefits were worth it, based on what evidence is coming to light regarding the health effects of diesel vs petrol.
- pgeorgi 8y ago
  > regarding the health effects of diesel vs petrol There's a known solution to sort out the SO2 emission, but it would cost a bit more. The problem isn't pushing diesel over petrol, the problem is letting the car vendors cheat so blatantly, apparently with political backing (in Germany at least).
  - idontpost 8y ago
    > There's a known solution to sort out the SO2 emission, but it would cost a bit more. Not if you're Volkswagen.

bufferoverflow 8y ago

Recently got a Toyota Verso, and was shocked to find out it averages 62.8 mpg [1]. And it really is that efficient. [1] https://blog.toyota.co.uk/honest-john-honours-toyota-verso-for-best-real-world-mpg-performance https://blog.toyota.co.uk/honest-john-honours-toyota-verso-f...

aembleton 8y ago
That's 62.8 UK mpg which is 52.3 US mpg.
- ithkuil 8y ago
  TIL US liquid gallon != US dry gallon != Imperial gallon...
  - Ensorceled 8y ago
    That’s insane! We should really come up with some kind of standardized system, a world wide metric if you will.
    - beefield 8y ago
      But... all these gallons are much more easy to relate to than a standard metric liter, thus making all of them superior. If you do not believe me, ask Nassim Nicholas Taleb[1]. [1] https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=metric%20system%20taleb https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=metric%20system%20tale...
      - josho 8y ago
        It is a skill. And a rather easy one to learn. E.g. I’ve completed some basic carpentry projects. At the start I couldn’t have told you how much ⅛ of an inch was. Now I’ve got a good feel for that length. There is no reason why I couldn’t have learned what ½cm looks like instead as both are equally arbitrary.

AnthonyMouse 8y ago

> That's an improvement between 21% and 34%. Not bad at all. It's not, though your sample is somewhat optimistic. For most vehicles it's closer to 20% than 34. The interesting point is that electric cars don't reduce oil consumption by ~20%, they reduce it by ~100% (or ~99.5% since 0.5% of US electricity comes from oil). That's about to be a dramatic drop in oil consumption as they come to be even a significant minority of vehicles.

FullyFunctional 8y ago
Nit: 99.5% doesn't account for the far greater efficiency of the EVs themselves, typically 100+ MPGe, thus the true reduction is even closer to 100% (fwiw, my roof produces all of my EV consumption most of the year).
sah2ed 8y ago
> The interesting point is that electric cars don't reduce oil consumption by ~20%, they reduce it by ~100% (or ~99.5% since 0.5% of US electricity comes from oil). In aggregate, oil consumption may drop, but it doesn't account for the possibility that fossil fuel consumption (natural gas, coal) in the energy mix of power generation will rise to meet the increased electricity demands from charging electric cars at home and workplaces. At least, until we completely figure out an efficient way to harness renewable energy like solar inside (swappable) batteries.
- AnthonyMouse 8y ago
  > In aggregate, oil consumption may drop, but it doesn't account for the possibility that fossil fuel consumption (natural gas, coal) in the energy mix of power generation will rise to meet the increased electricity demands from charging electric cars at home and workplaces. That's a relevant distinction for climate change, not if you're an oil company, or Russia and OPEC. Pre-tax oil prices are liable to trend lower -- and give countries an opportunity to raise fuel taxes without causing significant consumer harm, reducing oil demand even further. And the capacity increase is poised to come from mostly non-fossil sources anyway. Expanding coal is preposterous -- solar is already cheaper and the only people who don't hate it for five different reasons are coal mining companies. Natural gas might be expanded somewhat, but even there solar is cheaper, and anyway natural gas releases less carbon per KWh than oil (much less coal) even before accounting for the greater efficiency of electric vehicles. > At least, until we completely figure out an efficient way to harness renewable energy like solar inside (swappable) batteries. Electric cars already do this. The batteries hold more charge than the average daily commute, so all that's required is to charge the vehicle during daylight hours.

roenxi 8y ago

Let's be cautious attributing things to 'efficiency improvements' - that is a minefield of ways to be wrong [0]. Is it not a reasonable theory that the tailing off of demand is linked to increasing real prices of gasoline [1]? That seems like a simple and obvious explanation to me. I don't know if my source is particularly reliable, but real petrol prices have been all over the shop in recent years. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox [1] https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-prices/inflation-adjusted-gasoline-prices/ https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-prices...

fpoling 8y ago
That and introduction of road tolls and paid entrance to city centers across Europe.

danielharan 8y ago

Beyond cars getting more efficient, a lot of cities have also dramatically reduced their share of trips made by car. Paris reduced car mode share by 45% since 1990: https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/01/the-automotive-liberation-of-paris/550718/ https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/01/the-automotiv...

flexie 8y ago
And people stay in (inner) cities longer. Before, people had kids earlier and they moved to the suburbs when they had kids. Now they have kids later and more and more stay in the city even after having kids.
- fpoling 8y ago
  In Norway in cities a lot of new apartments are OK even for families with 3-4 kids. As a result some schools in the cities previously considered for closing down became overcrowded. And this is really a new development. Even twenty years ago a big family implied moving to a suburb.
  - lifeisstillgood 8y ago
    How can the apartment work for 5 or 6 people? Are apartments simply larger, or is it a sort of make do with less space Tokyo wise thing?
    - fpoling 8y ago
      The apartments became bigger, over 100 square meters or 1000 square feet’s.
      - lifeisstillgood 8y ago
        And consequently more expensive? I mean raising children in the city is usually a question of paying a lot of money or living three to a bed. This does not sound like a public policy solution, but parents paid more for bigger flats

Foivos 8y ago

At least in Greece, where the fleet is in general older than other more developed countries, the steep decline in the last few years can be attributed to price (taxes mostly). I remember when I got my license around 2008 everybody was freaking out in the idea that the price would approach 1 euro per litre. Now after years of recession the price casually goes to 1.80 especially in the islands. So people just drive less and also more reasonably (not fast accelerations, showing off etc.). A welcome side effect is the big reduction in road accidents.

cbg0 8y ago
> the steep decline in the last few years can be attributed to price High unemployment rate is also a very likely culprit: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?id=LRUN64TTGRA156N&nsh=1 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?id=LRUN64TTG...
kristopolous 8y ago
Just to make Americans reading this lives easier, I did the math, 1.8 euros/litre is $7.77/gallon.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]

ddingus 8y ago

I recently rented some Hyundai car for a trip to Seattle. Driving reasonably, that car got 54Mpg average on that trip. My old Honda 2001 gets between 35 and 40Mpg consistently.

ajeet_dhaliwal 8y ago

Besides better mpg the steep decline between 1999 and 2012 could be affected by the internet. Not just remote work but just how you don’t have to physically travel to get information or get things processed any more.

eecc 8y ago
And online shopping. It used to be normal to drive everywhere to just have a look, but today all but the most important purchases are done online and delivered. The efficiency of this is significant

philjohn 8y ago

I can attest to this - my 2014 Diesel UK Ford Focus returns (real) 62-64 MPG on my commute, I can get it over 70MPG if I hypermile.

progressiveweb 8y ago

I agree. The author has no understanding of the history of the automotive industry. We've seen this hype phase before returning to reality. The truth is that gasoline is still king because it is the fastest way to recharge your car. Manufacturing process and incremental improvements have made combustion engine far more efficient and cleaner. It's likely that this trend will not weaken, instead get even more boost more than ever because it offers a cheap alternative to electric cars. Coupled with a low oil price, we aren't going to see combustion cars disappear like HN folks would have you believe, instead we will see consumers voting with their money. At some point we will see combustion engine that approach somewhere a bit shorter than the 80~85% theoretical limit of combustion engine efficiency, but that is still an insane improvement to what we already have. I don't disagree that electric cars will get more popular, but a cheap oil price and highly efficient combustion engine that is coming is not going to lead to an apocalyptic future where sportscar owners are banished to remote islands, free to cause all the pollution they want. "but we have over 60% efficiency from our combustion engine!" they yell to no avail. The silence of electric cars whirring in the cities snuffs out Doug Demuro's fans.

thinkcontext 8y ago
Its by no means certain that ICEs will get sufficient investment to improve as much as you say. Dieselgate, carbon taxes and outright bans in much of the developed byworld, China and India choked with pollution make it a risky proposition. Even if ICE efficiency can improve substantially, can it match the rate at which the price of batteries is falling? Morgan Stanley predicts EVs will reach price parity with ICE in 2025 and then continue to get cheaper. https://insideevs.com/morgan-stanley-evs-price-parity-ice-2025/ https://insideevs.com/morgan-stanley-evs-price-parity-ice-20... Add to that cheaper fuel and maintenance. I think you are being too optimistic about ICE's future.
- olivermarks 8y ago
  Hybrid ICE is the future IMO. EV"s will be a niche market for short range, low use transportation.
- hummingurban 8y ago

mrfusion 8y ago

Can anyone detail what technology breakthroughs got these mileages so high?

gameswithgo 8y ago
Over the past 10 years or so there are two main things: 1. various technologies to vary cam timing and lift, which allows you to keep the engine efficient over a wider range of rpms. Forms of this have been around a long time but they are become more widespread and more capable. 2. direct injection - where some or all of the fuel injectors inject directly into the cyclinder, rather than into the intake manifold just before the cylinder. Because the fuel can be added just when you want it to ignite, you can leverage higher compression ratios and/or turbo chargers without pre-ignition on top of this there have been some small improvements in tire CRR, aerodynamics, materials. But a lot of the use of lightweight materials seems to coincide with also making the cars bigger. They certainly haven't gotten lighter overall! If cars had stayed the same dimensions since the 1980s, the fuel economy savings would seen WAY more amazing.
prostoalex 8y ago
As of lately plug-in hybrids prioritize using the battery pack over gasoline. While the electric ranges are nowhere near Tesla models, 42 miles of pure-electric on Honda Clarity Hybrid, 25 miles on Toyota Prius Plug-In, and 29 miles on Hyundai Ioniq Plug-In, it's good enough for most people's short trips and the cars are cheap enough to be appealing to commuters.
rsync 8y ago
"Can anyone detail what technology breakthroughs got these mileages so high?" I am not speaking of hybrid cars where the technology change is obvious - I am speaking only of pure ICE cars. The "technology", where there is any at all, consists of mostly petty optimizations to the existing ICE model ... engine start/stop at intersections, cylinder deactivation at cruising speeds[1], optimizations to cam timing and making the fuel injection system behave more like a Diesel engine, even when it is a gasoline engine. Again, all petty optimizations that don't represent any interesting technology and I find it laughable to see car advertisements in 2018 for various aspects of the engine/drivetrain. The real gains have been from switching 6-cylinder, 3.x Liter engines out for 4-cylinder 2.x Liter engines and attempting to make up the difference with turbo and super chargers (sometimes both!)[2]. The end result is what you would expect to see in a mature, already optimized, already spec'd technology: very small incremental gains that have large tradeoffs in other areas. These little 2L 4-bangers are loud, they vibrate a lot, and they're going to be very finicky in terms of maintenance when the dual turbo/super chargers get to 8 and 10 years old. I can't wait to never see any of them again. [1] I think this is only applied to 8 cylinder engines which are turned into 4 cylinder engines at highway cruising speeds. [2] ... and generally failing. I hope this "wisdom" is lost to time because we move away from ICE cars entirely, but for anyone still interested: "There's no replacement for displacement".

gameswithgo 8y ago

Increases in car efficiency don't necessarily result in less use of gasoline, often it results in more, due to Jevon's Paradox. Perhaps EU countries raised gasoline taxes in that period, or people got poorer.

geitir 8y ago
Sorry but maybe that holds for a smaller increase of efficiency but I highly doubt that's true for 20%+
lostapathy 8y ago
Maybe we passed the limits of Jevon’s paradox? There are practical limits to how much time a person can drive, or how much they can consume. I know I personally passed the point several years ago where I want to spend less time in a car, regadless of price.
lozenge 8y ago
The main limit in EU countries is the road space. There's very few areas designed to take as many cars as the US.

ransom1538 8y ago

- Honda Civic Coupe HF 4 cylinder (M5) 1985: 49 mpg [1] Pretty soon we will be as good as 1985. https://www.mpgomatic.com/2007/10/16/honda-civic-gas-mileage-1978-2007/ https://www.mpgomatic.com/2007/10/16/honda-civic-gas-mileage...

Shivetya 8y ago
However the means of measurement for mileage has changed since then and is more strict. You can go to [1] for more information but that 51mpg car is now 43mpg now. [1]https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/comparempg.shtml?words=#id=18 https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/comparempg.shtml?words=#id=1...
thedrbrian 8y ago
If only 1985 could catch up to our NVH , safety and emissions.
acomjean 8y ago
the same car model name gets much bigger and more powerful over time. Usually a new model is inserted under the existing one, for honda its the "fit". 1985 civic was quite small, about 150" in length and small engines usually < 100 horsepower. the new civic is (169.3 in) 4,300 mm, considerable larger. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Civic_(third_generation) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Civic_(third_generation) you can see the evolution in civic size by car generation here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Civic#Ninth_generation_(2012–2015) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Civic#Ninth_generation_(...
srcmap 8y ago
Got a Honda Clarity Hybrid Plugin for ~two months. I have been using the electric mode. Don't have to fill the gas tank after ~1800 miles. Used only ~1-2 galleon of gas because I wasn't too sure about the setup initially. It has electric range of 48 miles - perfect for the daily commute ~30 miles round trip. A nice gas option is there just in case the battery is gone - which I used couple time. The charge point app shows that the car took in 169KWHr in Oct. I figure if it is charged at home 15c / KWHr = ~$23. That's 50% to 75% cheaper than my last commuting car's gas cost. I am doing my share to reduce the oil demand.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

baybal2 8y ago

1. Cars are getting smaller, and more efficient 2. Fewer people use private transport because public transport is slowly improving in Western countries 3. More people elect to own mopeds, which eat like 10 times less gas than a car 4. More people move to big cities, pushing even bigger incentives to abandon private vehicle ownership

olivermarks 8y ago

As well as ice and hybrid cars being vastly more fuel efficient, our habits have changed. Far more working remotely and buying products online has reduced commuting and drives to the mall and specialist stores.

matchagaucho 8y ago

63% of US electricity is powered by fossil fuel. Electric cars need to recharge. This article doesn't recognize the trade-off of increased demand on the power grid, and source of that fuel.

FullyFunctional 8y ago
FUD. Even if all the electricity was generated with petrol, it would still be a win because EVs are way more efficient than gas cars, typically 100+ MPGe.
rfeather 8y ago
The article doesn't talk about greenhouse gas emissions, so the power grid and fuel source isn't really relevant to the point, especially since oil is an extremely small part of the energy mixture in most places.[1] If they were talking about greenhouse gases, then the answer seems to be that it depends on where you live and how/what you drive, but an electric vehicle almost always produces less emissions than an equivalent gas powered one. [2] does a decent job explaining though I feel he leaves a few parts out for the sake of clarity. For example, driving a P100D isn't the equivalent of driving the average car. It's more like driving a sports sedan (like a BMW M5), so those sorts of vehicles would probably be a more fair comparison. In the same vane, the whole US car fleet includes lots of SUVs and other trucks, which if there were equivalent electric models, would obviously not go as far as a Leaf. It would be great if there was a US calculator that worked like [3] does for the UK so that we could do the same sort of comparison based on the mix where we live. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_generation#Production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_generation#Product... [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RhtiPefVzM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RhtiPefVzM [3]https://www.nextgreencar.com/tools/emissions-calculator/ https://www.nextgreencar.com/tools/emissions-calculator/