4 ms·

>The issue is, as long as electric are priced above or similar to conventional cars, is and will continue to be, superior demand. Tesla's sales prove you wrong

>The issue is, as long as electric are priced above or similar to conventional cars, is and will continue to be, superior demand. Tesla's sales prove you wrong: people are already replacing their current ICEs with higher-priced EV, although on a /km basis, the Model 3 is already cheaper than an equivalent ICE (e.g the BMW Series 3). We just need Tesla to ramp up its production and introduce economy models, and the other manufacturers to try to compete. I am not saying that you can buy a low-cost EV for your needs/budget, but that your first 3 assertions are plainly false.

pjc50 8y ago
> people are already replacing their current ICEs with higher-priced EV Some people are, but only the non-cost-sensitive or people with specific use patterns - e.g. Priuses became incredibly popular as taxis.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
  Not "some people". Enough people for the Model 3 to be the #1 best selling cars in the US in $, and the #4 most popular car across all categories (from subcompact to luxury) and types (ICE, plugins & EV). BMW & Mercedes car sales are now plummeting in the US.
  - ianai 8y ago
    First I’ve heard that. Link?
    - rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
      Mercedes: http://www.autospies.com/images/users/Agent009/main/MB%20october%202018.JPG http://www.autospies.com/images/users/Agent009/main/MB%20oct... (these shows both cars and SUV) For the big pictures on the Telsa/BMW/Mercedes segment, check this out: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hYZ1J/8/ https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hYZ1J/8/ (it stops at August, but know that they sold 22.5K Model 3 in September) Edit: for BMW, I found this >Here's the number breakdown: BMW sold 14,450 passenger cars in the U.S. market in August. This number includes sales from compact crossovers like the X1 and X2 as well. That's a 13.5 percent decrease in car sales from August 2017. https://www.autoblog.com/2018/09/06/tesla-model-3-outsells-entire-bmw-car-lineup/ https://www.autoblog.com/2018/09/06/tesla-model-3-outsells-e... That is for August too, so this has probably worsen since then.
  - imtringued 8y ago
    What if this is caused by pent up demand? Model 3 had multiple years of preorders totaling more than 400k and now Tesla is selling them all at once at a rate of 5k cars per week. Would they still find buyers for all their cars if they produce 50k per week?
    - rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
      The ones they sold were priced at $59k on average, and they only delivered in the US & Canada. When they 1) start delivering in other countries (NB: demand for sedans is much bigger in Europe and China than North America) 2) start lowering the average selling price, with the Mediam and Short range models 3) get more people to see and drive the car the market will explode, just like it did with the Model S. Remember they expected the S market to be 30K units/y back in 2012, but it now exceeds 50K while selling the X (based in the S platform) and the 3 (whose performance, fully-optioned version definitely compete with the entry). While reviewing the 2012 plans, I found that they surpassed all their goals, early: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/1911629400x0x562858/6fd411d9-c47d-4d29-9489-09ba283bf07b/Tesla%20Presentation%20-%20Spring%202012.pdf http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/191162940...
  - pjc50 8y ago
    > to be the #1 best selling cars in the US in $ Rather like the iPhone is the most profitable phone, it just means the price is a lot higher.
neogodless 8y ago
I don't think this is correct. There is strong demand for a single, still moderately expensive, moderately exotic car. It's basically the only choice if you have the money and life situation to get an electric car. But as it turns out, it's not even necessarily replacing conventional fuel cars. Wealthy buyers are getting them as third cars! How is the assertion that a $15k gas car that can go 400 miles followed by a 5 minute 100% full up is superior to a $35+ electric car that might make it 300 and then need a 30+ charge incorrect? Yes, long-term the pricing, range and maybe even fill up times should become equitable, and along the way the article's main point about chargers covering the planet will have to be dealt with.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
  > But as it turns out, it's not even necessarily replacing conventional fuel cars. More than 50% of the trade-ins for the Model 3 are sub-$35K vehicles (new price). >Wealthy buyers are getting them as third cars! Source? >How is the assertion that a $15k gas car that can go 400 miles followed by a 5 minute 100% full up is superior to a $35+ electric car that might make it 300 and then be need a 30+ charge incorrect? Who said that? Are you rhetorical? You don't seem to be familiar with EV ownership if you think that's how people decide to switch. They are a multitude of benefits in EV that makes it okay to spend some 20 minute charging the car after 3h of driving (like having a fully charged battery every morning for peanuts, or not having to spend much on maintenance, or not worrying much about car depreciation, etc). >the article's main point about chargers covering the planet That won't be a problem. Gas stations are already becoming unprofitable so we don't have much of a choice and capital isn't actually lacking (banks are just waiting for the right time to invest). More importantly, all the $$ that are spent on the oil infrastructure will gradually become available for the EV infrastructure (a great upgrade to the grid that will make the switch to renewables even more economical thanks to economy of scale). One has to wonder why the journalist didn't even try to estimate the cost of the oil/ICE infrastructure (capex & opex). Here's one figure: the oil & gaz industry spends ~715 billion USD every year just to maintain the supply! The $6T isn't that big when you factory in everything and when you understand that this will be a multi-decade transition.
lrem 8y ago
What about comparing to something that isn't a status symbol? Personally, I paid 6k for my car and according to my bank statements seem to be spending 1.7k yearly on fuel and maintenance. I would love to drive an EV, as the distances I drive are small, but Nissan Leaf is way too small for my family and a Tesla 3 would mean I'm paying a bit too much for that warm fuzzy feeling. Is there another choice?
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
  > Is there another choice? Not yet, I guess. But the $35K Model 3 should be delivered mid 2019 and the first used sales should be available soon after. I doubt Tesla will decrease its prices (they're slowly securing the industry's profits, à la Apple). I'd expect most people to spend more on EV than did on ICE. I wonder if this legitimate question (when people wonder how much to spend on an EV vs cheap ICE) will be later compared to the famous 2007 Ballmer moment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qycUOENFIBs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qycUOENFIBs :)
- Brakenshire 8y ago
  > I would love to drive an EV, as the distances I drive are small, but Nissan Leaf is way too small for my family and a Tesla 3 would mean I'm paying a bit too much for that warm fuzzy feeling. Is there another choice? Something like a Mitsubishi Outlander? You’d need to run the calculations, but $17k over the course of a decade in fuel and maintenance costs leaves a lost of leeway.
ianai 8y ago
You’re right that we need affordable electric cars. But the elephant in the room is still charging and range. I’d love an electric, but I live about 100 miles away from the city. I need over 300 miles of range for one to make sense. Not to mention I need AC as well. That extends the range I need. I also need access to charging because I live in an apartment. Electrics will win the day and I can’t wait for them to win.
- millstone 8y ago
  This class of needs is important but is an outlier. A typical American daily commute is < 30 miles and an electric is more than enough for that. It would help a lot to have better infra to support infrequent needs like long range driving, hauling, etc. If it was easy to access these services I'd feel more confident owning a shorter range vehicle. Traditional car rental services are dinosaurs.
  - ianai 8y ago
    It can’t be that much of an outlier when many people live in suburbs and commute.
    - rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
      And yet it is: https://onedrive.live.com/View.aspx?resid=5BB61284E6FFA69C!184&app=Excel&authkey=!AA89km-f_oT97PQ https://onedrive.live.com/View.aspx?resid=5BB61284E6FFA69C!1... (note that the last column is the mean time spent in commute / source: https://www.bts.gov/content/commuting-work https://www.bts.gov/content/commuting-work)
    - wffurr 8y ago
      Looking at the National Household Transportation Survey, I came up with 12½ miles as the average commute length. Other sources report the average as 16 miles or most within 25 miles, with a very few up to 200 miles. https://nhts.ornl.gov https://nhts.ornl.gov https://www.creditdonkey.com/commute-statistics.html https://www.creditdonkey.com/commute-statistics.html https://itstillruns.com/far-americans-drive-work-average-7446397.html https://itstillruns.com/far-americans-drive-work-average-744... PS How cool is it that I can do even half baked data analysis on my pocket computer at the spur of the moment on such a thing. Didn't have to pay anything or even make an account. Thank you U.S. Department of Transportation.

pjc50 8y ago

> people are already replacing their current ICEs with higher-priced EV Some people are, but only the non-cost-sensitive or people with specific use patterns - e.g. Priuses became incredibly popular as taxis.

rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
Not "some people". Enough people for the Model 3 to be the #1 best selling cars in the US in $, and the #4 most popular car across all categories (from subcompact to luxury) and types (ICE, plugins & EV). BMW & Mercedes car sales are now plummeting in the US.
- ianai 8y ago
  First I’ve heard that. Link?
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
    Mercedes: http://www.autospies.com/images/users/Agent009/main/MB%20october%202018.JPG http://www.autospies.com/images/users/Agent009/main/MB%20oct... (these shows both cars and SUV) For the big pictures on the Telsa/BMW/Mercedes segment, check this out: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hYZ1J/8/ https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/hYZ1J/8/ (it stops at August, but know that they sold 22.5K Model 3 in September) Edit: for BMW, I found this >Here's the number breakdown: BMW sold 14,450 passenger cars in the U.S. market in August. This number includes sales from compact crossovers like the X1 and X2 as well. That's a 13.5 percent decrease in car sales from August 2017. https://www.autoblog.com/2018/09/06/tesla-model-3-outsells-entire-bmw-car-lineup/ https://www.autoblog.com/2018/09/06/tesla-model-3-outsells-e... That is for August too, so this has probably worsen since then.
- imtringued 8y ago
  What if this is caused by pent up demand? Model 3 had multiple years of preorders totaling more than 400k and now Tesla is selling them all at once at a rate of 5k cars per week. Would they still find buyers for all their cars if they produce 50k per week?
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
    The ones they sold were priced at $59k on average, and they only delivered in the US & Canada. When they 1) start delivering in other countries (NB: demand for sedans is much bigger in Europe and China than North America) 2) start lowering the average selling price, with the Mediam and Short range models 3) get more people to see and drive the car the market will explode, just like it did with the Model S. Remember they expected the S market to be 30K units/y back in 2012, but it now exceeds 50K while selling the X (based in the S platform) and the 3 (whose performance, fully-optioned version definitely compete with the entry). While reviewing the 2012 plans, I found that they surpassed all their goals, early: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/1911629400x0x562858/6fd411d9-c47d-4d29-9489-09ba283bf07b/Tesla%20Presentation%20-%20Spring%202012.pdf http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/191162940...
- pjc50 8y ago
  > to be the #1 best selling cars in the US in $ Rather like the iPhone is the most profitable phone, it just means the price is a lot higher.

neogodless 8y ago

I don't think this is correct. There is strong demand for a single, still moderately expensive, moderately exotic car. It's basically the only choice if you have the money and life situation to get an electric car. But as it turns out, it's not even necessarily replacing conventional fuel cars. Wealthy buyers are getting them as third cars! How is the assertion that a $15k gas car that can go 400 miles followed by a 5 minute 100% full up is superior to a $35+ electric car that might make it 300 and then need a 30+ charge incorrect? Yes, long-term the pricing, range and maybe even fill up times should become equitable, and along the way the article's main point about chargers covering the planet will have to be dealt with.

rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
> But as it turns out, it's not even necessarily replacing conventional fuel cars. More than 50% of the trade-ins for the Model 3 are sub-$35K vehicles (new price). >Wealthy buyers are getting them as third cars! Source? >How is the assertion that a $15k gas car that can go 400 miles followed by a 5 minute 100% full up is superior to a $35+ electric car that might make it 300 and then be need a 30+ charge incorrect? Who said that? Are you rhetorical? You don't seem to be familiar with EV ownership if you think that's how people decide to switch. They are a multitude of benefits in EV that makes it okay to spend some 20 minute charging the car after 3h of driving (like having a fully charged battery every morning for peanuts, or not having to spend much on maintenance, or not worrying much about car depreciation, etc). >the article's main point about chargers covering the planet That won't be a problem. Gas stations are already becoming unprofitable so we don't have much of a choice and capital isn't actually lacking (banks are just waiting for the right time to invest). More importantly, all the $$ that are spent on the oil infrastructure will gradually become available for the EV infrastructure (a great upgrade to the grid that will make the switch to renewables even more economical thanks to economy of scale). One has to wonder why the journalist didn't even try to estimate the cost of the oil/ICE infrastructure (capex & opex). Here's one figure: the oil & gaz industry spends ~715 billion USD every year just to maintain the supply! The $6T isn't that big when you factory in everything and when you understand that this will be a multi-decade transition.

lrem 8y ago

What about comparing to something that isn't a status symbol? Personally, I paid 6k for my car and according to my bank statements seem to be spending 1.7k yearly on fuel and maintenance. I would love to drive an EV, as the distances I drive are small, but Nissan Leaf is way too small for my family and a Tesla 3 would mean I'm paying a bit too much for that warm fuzzy feeling. Is there another choice?

rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
> Is there another choice? Not yet, I guess. But the $35K Model 3 should be delivered mid 2019 and the first used sales should be available soon after. I doubt Tesla will decrease its prices (they're slowly securing the industry's profits, à la Apple). I'd expect most people to spend more on EV than did on ICE. I wonder if this legitimate question (when people wonder how much to spend on an EV vs cheap ICE) will be later compared to the famous 2007 Ballmer moment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qycUOENFIBs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qycUOENFIBs :)
Brakenshire 8y ago
> I would love to drive an EV, as the distances I drive are small, but Nissan Leaf is way too small for my family and a Tesla 3 would mean I'm paying a bit too much for that warm fuzzy feeling. Is there another choice? Something like a Mitsubishi Outlander? You’d need to run the calculations, but $17k over the course of a decade in fuel and maintenance costs leaves a lost of leeway.

ianai 8y ago

You’re right that we need affordable electric cars. But the elephant in the room is still charging and range. I’d love an electric, but I live about 100 miles away from the city. I need over 300 miles of range for one to make sense. Not to mention I need AC as well. That extends the range I need. I also need access to charging because I live in an apartment. Electrics will win the day and I can’t wait for them to win.

millstone 8y ago
This class of needs is important but is an outlier. A typical American daily commute is < 30 miles and an electric is more than enough for that. It would help a lot to have better infra to support infrequent needs like long range driving, hauling, etc. If it was easy to access these services I'd feel more confident owning a shorter range vehicle. Traditional car rental services are dinosaurs.
- ianai 8y ago
  It can’t be that much of an outlier when many people live in suburbs and commute.
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
    And yet it is: https://onedrive.live.com/View.aspx?resid=5BB61284E6FFA69C!184&app=Excel&authkey=!AA89km-f_oT97PQ https://onedrive.live.com/View.aspx?resid=5BB61284E6FFA69C!1... (note that the last column is the mean time spent in commute / source: https://www.bts.gov/content/commuting-work https://www.bts.gov/content/commuting-work)
  - wffurr 8y ago
    Looking at the National Household Transportation Survey, I came up with 12½ miles as the average commute length. Other sources report the average as 16 miles or most within 25 miles, with a very few up to 200 miles. https://nhts.ornl.gov https://nhts.ornl.gov https://www.creditdonkey.com/commute-statistics.html https://www.creditdonkey.com/commute-statistics.html https://itstillruns.com/far-americans-drive-work-average-7446397.html https://itstillruns.com/far-americans-drive-work-average-744... PS How cool is it that I can do even half baked data analysis on my pocket computer at the spur of the moment on such a thing. Didn't have to pay anything or even make an account. Thank you U.S. Department of Transportation.