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I think there's a great deal of uncertainty about whether lithium ion is the right solution or whether we'll be able to online solid-state batteries or other al

I think there's a great deal of uncertainty about whether lithium ion is the right solution or whether we'll be able to online solid-state batteries or other alternatives. So it's a situation where if lithium ion persists, Tesla gets huge dividends for early investment, and if alternatives come online, others get in on the ground floor and have a fighting shot. I have no idea how feasible non-LI batteries are in the medium future.

prostoalex 8y ago
How many other automakers are investing deeply into materials research? Toyota and Honda seem to be playing with fuel cells, everyone else in the latest headlines is just laying off people and trimming the product lines.
- ilikehurdles 8y ago
  https://www.greentechmedia.com/amp/article/wv-quantumscape-investment https://www.greentechmedia.com/amp/article/wv-quantumscape-i... https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2018/06/volkswagen-tests-quantum-computing-in-battery-research.html https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2018/06/volkswagen-test... https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2015/12/10/ford-electrified-vehicle-battery-research.html https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2015... I’m sure there’s more but manufacturer after manufacturer is buying, investing in, poaching from, and acquiring EV/battery tech.
coryrc 8y ago
There is not uncertainty. Film-produced cells are sufficiently cost-effective now and their price is still dropping.
r00fus 8y ago
Well that's a nice diversion however do we have any credible hint that solid state batteries are a) viable and b) mass producible ? It's not like the late 00s where SSDs were viable but deemed not yet cost effective. Solid state batteries IIRC don't even have a proof of concept much less any adoption.
blackstrips 8y ago
Hydrogen fuel cells are lurking in the background too - and you don’t have to spend hours charging those.
- de_watcher 8y ago
  Overall hydrogen's efficiency is pretty bad (I've watched a convincing yt video): production, transportation, filling stations, car engine. Having electric plugs in supermarkets and doing some 15min breaks when using highways - that's already good enough.
  - 666lumberjack 8y ago
    Good enough for 99% of civilian cars, maybe, but I'm a lot more skeptical about the ability of battery-electric power to replace trains, long-haul trucks, etc. The expectation as far as range for those is high enough that enough batteries would either add too much weight or just flat-out not fit. I expect long-term we'll probably settle on something like 75% batteries / 25% hydrogen for ground transportation, and the reverse of that ratio for aircraft (although I wouldn't expect hydrogen planes to be using fuel cells).
    - tonyedgecombe 8y ago
      Trains don't really need it as you can just string up some overhead cables. Long haul freight should be on the railway anyway.
      - 666lumberjack 8y ago
        Electrification is great, but it's also been declining for decades in the US, to less than one percent of route miles. Taking a figure of half a million dollars per mile (which is less than the numbers I could find, but let's be conservative) you're looking at ~130 billion dollars. That's theoretically affordable for the government, maybe, but never going to happen politically speaking.
    - rusticpenn 8y ago

prostoalex 8y ago

How many other automakers are investing deeply into materials research? Toyota and Honda seem to be playing with fuel cells, everyone else in the latest headlines is just laying off people and trimming the product lines.

ilikehurdles 8y ago
https://www.greentechmedia.com/amp/article/wv-quantumscape-investment https://www.greentechmedia.com/amp/article/wv-quantumscape-i... https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2018/06/volkswagen-tests-quantum-computing-in-battery-research.html https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2018/06/volkswagen-test... https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2015/12/10/ford-electrified-vehicle-battery-research.html https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2015... I’m sure there’s more but manufacturer after manufacturer is buying, investing in, poaching from, and acquiring EV/battery tech.

coryrc 8y ago

There is not uncertainty. Film-produced cells are sufficiently cost-effective now and their price is still dropping.

r00fus 8y ago

Well that's a nice diversion however do we have any credible hint that solid state batteries are a) viable and b) mass producible ? It's not like the late 00s where SSDs were viable but deemed not yet cost effective. Solid state batteries IIRC don't even have a proof of concept much less any adoption.

blackstrips 8y ago

Hydrogen fuel cells are lurking in the background too - and you don’t have to spend hours charging those.

de_watcher 8y ago
Overall hydrogen's efficiency is pretty bad (I've watched a convincing yt video): production, transportation, filling stations, car engine. Having electric plugs in supermarkets and doing some 15min breaks when using highways - that's already good enough.
- 666lumberjack 8y ago
  Good enough for 99% of civilian cars, maybe, but I'm a lot more skeptical about the ability of battery-electric power to replace trains, long-haul trucks, etc. The expectation as far as range for those is high enough that enough batteries would either add too much weight or just flat-out not fit. I expect long-term we'll probably settle on something like 75% batteries / 25% hydrogen for ground transportation, and the reverse of that ratio for aircraft (although I wouldn't expect hydrogen planes to be using fuel cells).
  - tonyedgecombe 8y ago
    Trains don't really need it as you can just string up some overhead cables. Long haul freight should be on the railway anyway.
    - 666lumberjack 8y ago
      Electrification is great, but it's also been declining for decades in the US, to less than one percent of route miles. Taking a figure of half a million dollars per mile (which is less than the numbers I could find, but let's be conservative) you're looking at ~130 billion dollars. That's theoretically affordable for the government, maybe, but never going to happen politically speaking.
  - rusticpenn 8y ago