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I too have some resistance to the notion that we will see AGI at a higher level than humans within 50 years. I don't think the arguments he has make any sense.

I too have some resistance to the notion that we will see AGI at a higher level than humans within 50 years. I don't think the arguments he has make any sense. The technology simply did not exist and we're improving on so many fronts mostly because we're now capable of yielding huge neural networks we couldn't fathom having access to just a few years ago. I don't think the technology required to build superhuman AGI exists yet at least at a reasonable cost to humanity. I don't think we will reach this level of massively parallel computing required for Superhuman AGI until maybe 2070 and that's only if we bring together all the world's supercomputers together in one giant artificial brain.

ansible 8y ago
I think we've seen the cross-over point for AGI in the last few years. Just recently, within the last decade, we've seen incredible advances of the usefulness of existing ML/NN based approaches. We have phones and smart speakers which have sufficiently reliable speech recognition. Ditto for vision tasks. What's different now compared to decades past is that businesses can see the benefit of incremental improvements in existing systems. If Siri can easily be demonstrated to be more useful than Cortana, that is a significant competitive advantage, which will sell products and services. The tech giants (and others) see this, so they will continue to invest. This isn't like in past where we tried things here and there, they didn't work as well as we had hoped, and then we stopped investing. The pressure is on all the tech giants to keep investing, and applying that research to more and more of their own businesses (like using ML to manage power and cooling at a data center). We're on a roller-coaster ride into the future, and nothing short of worldwide disaster will stop it. For good or for bad.
worldsayshi 8y ago
> Superhuman AGI The only reasonable definition I can come up with for this would be "More intelectually capable than all of human society. So, yeah. (Any other definition would still allow humanity to outsmart it.)

ansible 8y ago

I think we've seen the cross-over point for AGI in the last few years. Just recently, within the last decade, we've seen incredible advances of the usefulness of existing ML/NN based approaches. We have phones and smart speakers which have sufficiently reliable speech recognition. Ditto for vision tasks. What's different now compared to decades past is that businesses can see the benefit of incremental improvements in existing systems. If Siri can easily be demonstrated to be more useful than Cortana, that is a significant competitive advantage, which will sell products and services. The tech giants (and others) see this, so they will continue to invest. This isn't like in past where we tried things here and there, they didn't work as well as we had hoped, and then we stopped investing. The pressure is on all the tech giants to keep investing, and applying that research to more and more of their own businesses (like using ML to manage power and cooling at a data center). We're on a roller-coaster ride into the future, and nothing short of worldwide disaster will stop it. For good or for bad.

worldsayshi 8y ago

> Superhuman AGI The only reasonable definition I can come up with for this would be "More intelectually capable than all of human society. So, yeah. (Any other definition would still allow humanity to outsmart it.)