3 ms·

What you're seeing is car companies trying to transition to "mobility" companies -- the difference being the former is a manufacturing company with 3% margins a

What you're seeing is car companies trying to transition to "mobility" companies -- the difference being the former is a manufacturing company with 3% margins and the latter being a services company with much fatter margins. Autonomous car fleets are the main "mobility services" prize of course -- all the major OEMs have autonomous research labs -- but you're seeing more interest in scooters and bikes (there was a headline about GM releasing an e-bike last week).

sonnyblarney 8y ago
No, I don't think this is a transition. What we're likely seeing is M&A people caught up in the hype and trends. In some ways, it's worth spending some amount as a hedge against something happening, but I don't believe these scooters will represent any meaningful change ... personally I think they are kind of a fad. The logistics, cost, narrow use cases of all of it just don't work out well enough. Truly - what % of people could actually commute using these things? It's very small. Of those, who would actually do it? In winter? Up and down hills? Are they a little bit too old for this, or maybe not so open minded? Are there status issues, i.e. if you are a 'serious professional' in many industries it just doesn't bode well to be bouncing around on a scooter (I know this might seem foreign maybe to HN readers but this is a thing). And then of course - if it was useful for commuting, why wouldn't people just end up buying one so they always have it when needed? I think the use cases for these scooters is very narrow. While I agree the general attitude of 'moving beyond traditional cars' is a strategic impetus, and it makes a lot of sense to 'participate' in these things early on ... I don't think this is a secular shift. Not yet anyhow. America is a very spread out place - even LA. And we're only just starting to see the regulatory and populist backlash.
- tomatotomato37 8y ago
  I agree. Besides taking an Uber approach to sidewalk limitations, I don't really see any use case for this that a moped or bike doesn't do better.
  - sonnyblarney 8y ago
    Honestly this just may spur people to use bicycles, or moped style scooters as are common in Europe. The type of people to use these scooters are exactly the types that would likely use a bike. Or a Vespa.
    - Damogran6 8y ago
      Til it snows.
      - stevekemp 8y ago
        Helsinki has some docked-bicycles which cost €20/year if you take journeys of 30 minutes or less. They seem to appear in spring and disappear in autumn, so no cheap bicycles in the winter. That said there are a _lot_ of people who continue to cycle even in winter (-25'C is coldest I've experienced over the past three years), and the snow/ice doesn't seem to stop them. Though of course fat-tyres, and ice-studs are a given.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- ghaff 8y ago
  If nothing else--and I tend to agree they're a fad--the question of where you ride them seems as if it will be the ultimate stumbling block. Even if one stipulates for purposes of argument that they're OK to ride on sidewalks if you're careful about it and the sidewalks aren't too crowded, it seems hard to argue that this scales up to widespread usage. At the same time, it's fairly clear to me that these won't work for most people if they need to ride them in the road or even a non-separated bike lane. Segways largely failed for a number of reasons but infrastructure was a big one. A lot of people probably forget this but they spent a lot of time and money lobbying cities to let them ride on sidewalks (and were mostly unsuccessful in this regard).
- iknowstuff 8y ago
  >Truly - what % of people could actually commute using these things? It's very small. Of those, who would actually do it? In winter? Up and down hills? Are they a little bit too old for this, or maybe not so open minded? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RQrKP9a0XE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RQrKP9a0XE Potentially: Everyone, winter to summer (look up his other videos), up and down hills (they're electric, hills don't matter), regardless of age. America is not the only country in the world, but even the US has cities far denser than the spread out, gridlocked hell of LA like San Francisco or NYC.
  - angled 8y ago
    Macau is by far more dense, has a large petrol scooter population, and almost no e-scooters. Petrol scooters are far more flexible at this point in terms of speed, torque, gross weight carried; and announce themselves much better in the many twisty / blind streets and alleys. It also rains a lot. Do people ride e-scooters in the rain in SF?
- hamandcheese 8y ago
  > if it was useful for commuting, why wouldn't people just end up buying one so they always have it when needed? I own a bicycle, but I don’t always have it when needed.
- joejerryronnie 8y ago
  There you go, being all "logical" on us.
nradov 8y ago
There's no reason to think that future margins for mobility services will be any higher. With few barriers to entry, margins will be driven down close to 0%.

sonnyblarney 8y ago

No, I don't think this is a transition. What we're likely seeing is M&A people caught up in the hype and trends. In some ways, it's worth spending some amount as a hedge against something happening, but I don't believe these scooters will represent any meaningful change ... personally I think they are kind of a fad. The logistics, cost, narrow use cases of all of it just don't work out well enough. Truly - what % of people could actually commute using these things? It's very small. Of those, who would actually do it? In winter? Up and down hills? Are they a little bit too old for this, or maybe not so open minded? Are there status issues, i.e. if you are a 'serious professional' in many industries it just doesn't bode well to be bouncing around on a scooter (I know this might seem foreign maybe to HN readers but this is a thing). And then of course - if it was useful for commuting, why wouldn't people just end up buying one so they always have it when needed? I think the use cases for these scooters is very narrow. While I agree the general attitude of 'moving beyond traditional cars' is a strategic impetus, and it makes a lot of sense to 'participate' in these things early on ... I don't think this is a secular shift. Not yet anyhow. America is a very spread out place - even LA. And we're only just starting to see the regulatory and populist backlash.

tomatotomato37 8y ago
I agree. Besides taking an Uber approach to sidewalk limitations, I don't really see any use case for this that a moped or bike doesn't do better.
- sonnyblarney 8y ago
  Honestly this just may spur people to use bicycles, or moped style scooters as are common in Europe. The type of people to use these scooters are exactly the types that would likely use a bike. Or a Vespa.
  - Damogran6 8y ago
    Til it snows.
    - stevekemp 8y ago
      Helsinki has some docked-bicycles which cost €20/year if you take journeys of 30 minutes or less. They seem to appear in spring and disappear in autumn, so no cheap bicycles in the winter. That said there are a _lot_ of people who continue to cycle even in winter (-25'C is coldest I've experienced over the past three years), and the snow/ice doesn't seem to stop them. Though of course fat-tyres, and ice-studs are a given.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
ghaff 8y ago
If nothing else--and I tend to agree they're a fad--the question of where you ride them seems as if it will be the ultimate stumbling block. Even if one stipulates for purposes of argument that they're OK to ride on sidewalks if you're careful about it and the sidewalks aren't too crowded, it seems hard to argue that this scales up to widespread usage. At the same time, it's fairly clear to me that these won't work for most people if they need to ride them in the road or even a non-separated bike lane. Segways largely failed for a number of reasons but infrastructure was a big one. A lot of people probably forget this but they spent a lot of time and money lobbying cities to let them ride on sidewalks (and were mostly unsuccessful in this regard).
iknowstuff 8y ago
>Truly - what % of people could actually commute using these things? It's very small. Of those, who would actually do it? In winter? Up and down hills? Are they a little bit too old for this, or maybe not so open minded? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RQrKP9a0XE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RQrKP9a0XE Potentially: Everyone, winter to summer (look up his other videos), up and down hills (they're electric, hills don't matter), regardless of age. America is not the only country in the world, but even the US has cities far denser than the spread out, gridlocked hell of LA like San Francisco or NYC.
- angled 8y ago
  Macau is by far more dense, has a large petrol scooter population, and almost no e-scooters. Petrol scooters are far more flexible at this point in terms of speed, torque, gross weight carried; and announce themselves much better in the many twisty / blind streets and alleys. It also rains a lot. Do people ride e-scooters in the rain in SF?
hamandcheese 8y ago
> if it was useful for commuting, why wouldn't people just end up buying one so they always have it when needed? I own a bicycle, but I don’t always have it when needed.
joejerryronnie 8y ago
There you go, being all "logical" on us.

nradov 8y ago

There's no reason to think that future margins for mobility services will be any higher. With few barriers to entry, margins will be driven down close to 0%.