7 ms·

Stockholders just believe the no one else will ever be able to make an electric car.

codeulike 8y ago
Battery packs for EVs are expensive and heavy. And more complicated than people realise. They're not just big batteries. Making an electric car with decent range at an affordable price* is not easy at all. Tesla is closer than anyone else. * edit: an affordable price that isn't loss-making, I should say
- rootusrootus 8y ago
  Both Chevy and Hyundai have decent range EVs that are significantly less expensive than a Tesla, so it seems like it's not a problem only Tesla knows the answer to.
  - JoeAltmaier 8y ago
    The Bolt at 238 miles is still quite a bit under the Tesla which can reach 300+. But at half the cost, its a price point that will suit many folks.
    - rootusrootus 8y ago
      Only because Chevy doesn't offer an LR upgrade for the Bolt. Otherwise it seems like it has more range than a 220-mile Model 3?
  - codeulike 8y ago
    The Chevvy bolt is sold at an $8000 loss. The Hyundai Kona Electric looks cool but is only going to be sold in small numbers and won't be available in much of the USA https://insideevs.com/hyundai-kona-electric-limited-u-s-availability/ https://insideevs.com/hyundai-kona-electric-limited-u-s-avai... I wonder why.
    - Retric 8y ago
      Not only are they losing money, it also starts at $36,620 which is more than the Tesla 3 base model and it’s tiny. Bolt: 164″ L x 70″ W Model 3: 185″ L x 73″ W Which is not nessisarily a bad thing for a city car.
      - falcolas 8y ago
        The Tesla 3 base model is not in production right now. Only the higher priced models are. I'm sure they'll eventually get to it, but you're comparing a model that is available to buy today with one which is not.
        Retric 8y ago
        Sure, in practice you can even get a 2019 Bolt for 9k under MSRP becase nobody wants them. https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/747922437/overview/ https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/747922437/overview... Tesla may or may not start base model production in Q1 2019, but availability is not really helping the Bolt sell.
        falcolas 8y ago
        Cars almost always sell under MSRP - because there's a middleman involved. For example: https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/750619576/overview/ https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/750619576/overview... "Nobody wants one" is also hyperbolic - Chevy releases sale numbers, and while not top-of-the-line, they're also not 0.
        Retric 8y ago
        Depends on the car and when you buy it. Some high demand cars sell over MSRP. Seeing deep discounts at the end of a model year is common when trying to shift inventory or when dealing with very high margin trim levels. Advertising 26% under MSRP for a base 2019 model in 2018 is a rather extreme case. PS: For some actual numbers: GM delivered 3,949 Bolt EVs during the last three months in the US from 6,710 units during the same period last year. In automotive sales terms that's very close to zero. https://electrek.co/2018/10/03/chevy-bolt-ev-sales-slumping-us/ https://electrek.co/2018/10/03/chevy-bolt-ev-sales-slumping-...
- mdasen 8y ago
  I can go to a dealer today and grab a Chevy Bolt for under $32k with no haggling with 238 mile range. Hyundai hasn't come out with US pricing for their Kona EV yet, but in Norway they're selling it for the equivalent of $40k with 258 mile range. It certainly isn't trivial and Tesla has invested a good bit in EV technology, but it looks like rivals aren't that far behind.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
LeonM 8y ago
They are able, but they don't do it. The only full electric car BMW currently produces is the wacky i3, which doesn't appeal to the average BMW buyer. For some reason all car manufacturers (except tsla) build really lame, goofy, small electric cars, why can't we just have a traditional luxury saloon? The current 5 and 3-series are not offered in an full electric version. Which means that maybe, if we are lucky, there will be an all-electric 3/5 series in the next-generation (to be expected in 2021).
- toomuchtodo 8y ago
  Just bought a new Model S 100D. Sat in other cars just for giggles (BMW 5 series, Mercedes E Class, Audi RS 3). Where else am I getting an electric car that holds two large Clek Fllo car seats, two adults, a full trunk of luggage, has 330 miles of range, does 0-60 in 3.6 seconds, and I can travel cross country effortlessly in? It doesn't exist besides a Tesla. Tesla is valued appropriately based on the market.
- athenot 8y ago
  I drove 2 Nissan LEAFs for 5 years. They are solid cars, and this year's iteration moved out of the "early adopter" segment and is being marketed as a mainstream car. Their roadmap in 2022 calls for 4 EVs plus 2 more under the Infiniti brand. Unlike GM, Nissan has 8 years of experience with EVs so I think their roadmap is believable.
  - kazen44 8y ago
    Also, the nissan leaf could be the kind of car that fetches the low end of the market. All the people driving cheap tiny cars like the toyota aygo, these people are usually also those who don't drive long distances. A nissan leaf would be a perfect car for my Mother in law for instance, she drives very little, and the distances she drives are usually >50km.
- thepangolino 8y ago
  This is something that also always boggled my mind. One of the most expensive parts on an electric car are the batteries. No matter how cheap you try to make your car, you'll be set back about 20k just with the batteries. At this point, why even bother trying to go for the lower end.
leesec 8y ago
The fact that it's electric is not even close to the only advantage that Tesla's cars have over ICE cars. Tesla turned the car into a software problem, and I would argue they have demonstrated they are WAY WAY ahead of the major OEM's at software and in the infrastructure supporting it. Not to mention extremely sleek and well loved design, autopilot, etc. To just make a Camry electric won't be enough ( though it definitely will take some of the market share ).
- thesimon 8y ago
  >autopilot Other than marketing, are they really ahead of the competition?
  - leesec 8y ago
    Which competition are we talking about? GM Supercruise is the only other thing on the market that is comparable, and with Nav on Autopilot I'd argue Tesla is a fair bit ahead. Maybe they are not ahead of Waymo, but can you buy a Waymo? If not then when will you be able to? There is Comma.ai which I am impressed with and think will be the general autonomous solution to many (most?) non-Tesla cars going forward, but their product at the moment is for hobbyists and not consumers.
- hcg 8y ago
  > Tesla turned the car into a software problem No, they convinced fanboys that they turned it into a software problem. The reality is they are no different than any other auto manufacturer. Being in Silicon Valley doesn't change that. An electric Camry would sell so much more than the model 3.
  - leesec 8y ago
    What are you talking about? They have turned it into a software problem. Name another company where you can make meaningful over the air software updates that affect more than the dashboard? Also while I am a Tesla fanboy, I work in automotive technology and interface with many of the major car companies daily, so I'm not just getting this from articles.
013a 8y ago
Beyond the hype, I think it's feasible to believe that Tesla has a massive multi-year advantage that other car companies will be playing catchup to for a very long time. Having the global manufacturing infrastructure of someone like Ford or VAG certainly seems like an advantage, but retrofitting that infrastructure to manufacture electric vehicles isn't exactly trivial or cheap. Then consider you also need to "retrofit" all of your people to figure out how to make electric vehicles (or hire new people). The platforms that worked for ICEs don't work for EVs. The electronics don't work. It requires a huge number of new parts. And the parts that stay the same might not be well-suited for EVs; ICE buyers, especially BMW, don't really care about fuel economy, but every EV buyer does care about range. That's a huge shift that affects every part; seats have to be lighter, made of different materials, you have to use more aluminum and carbon fiber in more expensive models, aerodynamics change, etc. Then consider Tesla's massive lead in battery production which serves to drive down price and increase their technology lead.
- gamblor956 8y ago
  Your greatly overstating Tesla's advantages. EV drivetrains aren't quite drop in replacements but they are close enough that the first modern commercial EVs... including Tesla...were simply converted ICE vehicles. Also, Tesla doesn't make batteries, Panasonic does. Tesla just assembles them. Panasonic also sells batteries to Tesla's competition. And based on Tesla's past issues with paying vendors, if they miss even a single payment to Panasonic their supply advantage could disappear immediately.
  - leesec 8y ago
    Yes those cars were converted ICE vehicles... in 2008. Sounds like a multi year advantage to me.
    - gamblor956 8y ago
      No fewer than a dozen car companies are planning to launch more advanced EVs than Tesla within the next 3 years. Tesla can't afford the capital investment it needs to compete with that generation of competition, largely because it executed this generation's launch so poorly.

Battery packs for EVs are expensive and heavy. And more complicated than people realise. They're not just big batteries. Making an electric car with decent range at an affordable price* is not easy at all. Tesla is closer than anyone else. * edit: an affordable price that isn't loss-making, I should say

rootusrootus 8y ago
Both Chevy and Hyundai have decent range EVs that are significantly less expensive than a Tesla, so it seems like it's not a problem only Tesla knows the answer to.
- JoeAltmaier 8y ago
  The Bolt at 238 miles is still quite a bit under the Tesla which can reach 300+. But at half the cost, its a price point that will suit many folks.
  - rootusrootus 8y ago
    Only because Chevy doesn't offer an LR upgrade for the Bolt. Otherwise it seems like it has more range than a 220-mile Model 3?
- codeulike 8y ago
  The Chevvy bolt is sold at an $8000 loss. The Hyundai Kona Electric looks cool but is only going to be sold in small numbers and won't be available in much of the USA https://insideevs.com/hyundai-kona-electric-limited-u-s-availability/ https://insideevs.com/hyundai-kona-electric-limited-u-s-avai... I wonder why.
  - Retric 8y ago
    Not only are they losing money, it also starts at $36,620 which is more than the Tesla 3 base model and it’s tiny. Bolt: 164″ L x 70″ W Model 3: 185″ L x 73″ W Which is not nessisarily a bad thing for a city car.
    - falcolas 8y ago
      The Tesla 3 base model is not in production right now. Only the higher priced models are. I'm sure they'll eventually get to it, but you're comparing a model that is available to buy today with one which is not.
      - Retric 8y ago
        Sure, in practice you can even get a 2019 Bolt for 9k under MSRP becase nobody wants them. https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/747922437/overview/ https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/747922437/overview... Tesla may or may not start base model production in Q1 2019, but availability is not really helping the Bolt sell.
        falcolas 8y ago
        Cars almost always sell under MSRP - because there's a middleman involved. For example: https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/750619576/overview/ https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/750619576/overview... "Nobody wants one" is also hyperbolic - Chevy releases sale numbers, and while not top-of-the-line, they're also not 0.
        Retric 8y ago
        Depends on the car and when you buy it. Some high demand cars sell over MSRP. Seeing deep discounts at the end of a model year is common when trying to shift inventory or when dealing with very high margin trim levels. Advertising 26% under MSRP for a base 2019 model in 2018 is a rather extreme case. PS: For some actual numbers: GM delivered 3,949 Bolt EVs during the last three months in the US from 6,710 units during the same period last year. In automotive sales terms that's very close to zero. https://electrek.co/2018/10/03/chevy-bolt-ev-sales-slumping-us/ https://electrek.co/2018/10/03/chevy-bolt-ev-sales-slumping-...
mdasen 8y ago
I can go to a dealer today and grab a Chevy Bolt for under $32k with no haggling with 238 mile range. Hyundai hasn't come out with US pricing for their Kona EV yet, but in Norway they're selling it for the equivalent of $40k with 258 mile range. It certainly isn't trivial and Tesla has invested a good bit in EV technology, but it looks like rivals aren't that far behind.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]

LeonM 8y ago

They are able, but they don't do it. The only full electric car BMW currently produces is the wacky i3, which doesn't appeal to the average BMW buyer. For some reason all car manufacturers (except tsla) build really lame, goofy, small electric cars, why can't we just have a traditional luxury saloon? The current 5 and 3-series are not offered in an full electric version. Which means that maybe, if we are lucky, there will be an all-electric 3/5 series in the next-generation (to be expected in 2021).

toomuchtodo 8y ago
Just bought a new Model S 100D. Sat in other cars just for giggles (BMW 5 series, Mercedes E Class, Audi RS 3). Where else am I getting an electric car that holds two large Clek Fllo car seats, two adults, a full trunk of luggage, has 330 miles of range, does 0-60 in 3.6 seconds, and I can travel cross country effortlessly in? It doesn't exist besides a Tesla. Tesla is valued appropriately based on the market.
athenot 8y ago
I drove 2 Nissan LEAFs for 5 years. They are solid cars, and this year's iteration moved out of the "early adopter" segment and is being marketed as a mainstream car. Their roadmap in 2022 calls for 4 EVs plus 2 more under the Infiniti brand. Unlike GM, Nissan has 8 years of experience with EVs so I think their roadmap is believable.
- kazen44 8y ago
  Also, the nissan leaf could be the kind of car that fetches the low end of the market. All the people driving cheap tiny cars like the toyota aygo, these people are usually also those who don't drive long distances. A nissan leaf would be a perfect car for my Mother in law for instance, she drives very little, and the distances she drives are usually >50km.
thepangolino 8y ago
This is something that also always boggled my mind. One of the most expensive parts on an electric car are the batteries. No matter how cheap you try to make your car, you'll be set back about 20k just with the batteries. At this point, why even bother trying to go for the lower end.

leesec 8y ago

The fact that it's electric is not even close to the only advantage that Tesla's cars have over ICE cars. Tesla turned the car into a software problem, and I would argue they have demonstrated they are WAY WAY ahead of the major OEM's at software and in the infrastructure supporting it. Not to mention extremely sleek and well loved design, autopilot, etc. To just make a Camry electric won't be enough ( though it definitely will take some of the market share ).

thesimon 8y ago
>autopilot Other than marketing, are they really ahead of the competition?
- leesec 8y ago
  Which competition are we talking about? GM Supercruise is the only other thing on the market that is comparable, and with Nav on Autopilot I'd argue Tesla is a fair bit ahead. Maybe they are not ahead of Waymo, but can you buy a Waymo? If not then when will you be able to? There is Comma.ai which I am impressed with and think will be the general autonomous solution to many (most?) non-Tesla cars going forward, but their product at the moment is for hobbyists and not consumers.
hcg 8y ago
> Tesla turned the car into a software problem No, they convinced fanboys that they turned it into a software problem. The reality is they are no different than any other auto manufacturer. Being in Silicon Valley doesn't change that. An electric Camry would sell so much more than the model 3.
- leesec 8y ago
  What are you talking about? They have turned it into a software problem. Name another company where you can make meaningful over the air software updates that affect more than the dashboard? Also while I am a Tesla fanboy, I work in automotive technology and interface with many of the major car companies daily, so I'm not just getting this from articles.

013a 8y ago

Beyond the hype, I think it's feasible to believe that Tesla has a massive multi-year advantage that other car companies will be playing catchup to for a very long time. Having the global manufacturing infrastructure of someone like Ford or VAG certainly seems like an advantage, but retrofitting that infrastructure to manufacture electric vehicles isn't exactly trivial or cheap. Then consider you also need to "retrofit" all of your people to figure out how to make electric vehicles (or hire new people). The platforms that worked for ICEs don't work for EVs. The electronics don't work. It requires a huge number of new parts. And the parts that stay the same might not be well-suited for EVs; ICE buyers, especially BMW, don't really care about fuel economy, but every EV buyer does care about range. That's a huge shift that affects every part; seats have to be lighter, made of different materials, you have to use more aluminum and carbon fiber in more expensive models, aerodynamics change, etc. Then consider Tesla's massive lead in battery production which serves to drive down price and increase their technology lead.

gamblor956 8y ago
Your greatly overstating Tesla's advantages. EV drivetrains aren't quite drop in replacements but they are close enough that the first modern commercial EVs... including Tesla...were simply converted ICE vehicles. Also, Tesla doesn't make batteries, Panasonic does. Tesla just assembles them. Panasonic also sells batteries to Tesla's competition. And based on Tesla's past issues with paying vendors, if they miss even a single payment to Panasonic their supply advantage could disappear immediately.
- leesec 8y ago
  Yes those cars were converted ICE vehicles... in 2008. Sounds like a multi year advantage to me.
  - gamblor956 8y ago
    No fewer than a dozen car companies are planning to launch more advanced EVs than Tesla within the next 3 years. Tesla can't afford the capital investment it needs to compete with that generation of competition, largely because it executed this generation's launch so poorly.