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Tesla (TSLA) surpasses BMW's valuation as one soars and the other slips
- jasoncartwright 8y agoI often enjoy Electrek's coverage, but they aren't a reliable news source. http://www.thedrive.com/news/24025/electreks-editor-in-chief-publisher-both-scoring-250000-tesla-roadsters-for-free-by-gaming-referral-program http://www.thedrive.com/news/24025/electreks-editor-in-chief...
- jessaustin 8y agoNothing in TFA seems suspicious to me. The main point, at least, is easy enough to confirm. 60B > 56B. https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/market_cap https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/market_cap https://ycharts.com/companies/BAMXF/market_cap https://ycharts.com/companies/BAMXF/market_cap
- whtswrong 8y ago>Nothing in TFA seems suspicious to me. I don't know about "suspicious", but what exactly is the point? Tesla, whom many consider overvalued, has a higher market cap than BMW. So what? BMW makes more money, has higher revenues, produces more cars and has been in business way longer. Their sales have been growing for years. They deliver almost as many cars in a month as Tesla has in its entire existence. So what is the main point? Only in Silicon Valley do people care about "valuation". Electrek literally takes random Elon Musk tweets and writes "articles" about them. HN votes them up, while criticizing every second article as "fake news".
- codeulike 8y agoTesla's high valuation represents the hopes for its future importance. So at this point you could say the market values Tesla's future as being more important than BMWs future. And if you are ecologically minded, thats interesting.
- whtswrong 8y ago>And if you are ecologically minded, thats interesting. This doesn't follow. If you were truly ecologically minded, you'd cheer on all the automakers in their move to EVs, not one in specific with a microscopic market share. BMW has more potential to shift the landscape than Tesla.
- Arnt 8y agoTesla is shifting the landscape, BMW could be. Comparing the indicative with the indicative mood isn't fair. Vapourware always/never beats what's shipping.
- codeulike 8y agoWell thats true, I do want other automakers to follow. That's Tesla's stated mission actually - to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport. So perhaps this market valuation will give BMW a kick up the arse. BMW and all the other major carmakers are continually announcing how they're going to start producing loads of EVs blah blah, but its always still 'a few years away'. And seems to have been like that for a decade now. I think there is some sort of deadlock at the senior management level. Also, Tesla's market share is no longer microscopic and the likelihood is its going to continue to grow. Thats the whole point of the market valuation that this conversation we're having is about.
- the_duke 8y agoTesla has definitely given a tremendous push to the market. I highly doubt the EV efforts would be nearly as far along as they are without Tesla, and the danger that the catch-up activity by other players dies down again if Tesla goes under is very real. (until the Chinese manufacturers start tackling the European market, that is) There is nothing better to put pressure on other manufacturers than a successful EV vendor.
- DennisP 8y agoMaybe, but Tesla is selling significantly more cars than BMW right now. When another automaker starts selling an all-electric lineup, I'll cheer for them as much as for Tesla.
- arcticfox 8y ago> Their sales have been growing for years. Looks like they just posted a solid ~5% YoY growth for the last quarter, while TSLA posted ~125%. It's clearly an interesting difference. Valuation is the metric that summarizes all of the other metrics. https://www.zacks.com/stock/chart/bamxf/fundamental/revenue-quarterly-yoy-growth https://www.zacks.com/stock/chart/bamxf/fundamental/revenue-... https://www.zacks.com/stock/chart/TSLA/fundamental/revenue-quarterly-yoy-growth https://www.zacks.com/stock/chart/TSLA/fundamental/revenue-q...
- Gladdyu 8y agohttps://xkcd.com/1102/ https://xkcd.com/1102/
- mijamo 8y agoValuation does not AT ALL summarize all the other metrics. Valuation is NOT a representation of the future of even expected future of a company. I could bet on Tesla and help its value rise just because I think tomorrow other people will bet on them and so the share will rise. I could bet on Tesla because I think Softbank has way too much money and will ensure I get an nice ROI soon. I could bet on Tesla because I just see that they've been growing and think it will keep going at the same pace without issue. As long as you have people ready to buy at a higher price for whatever reason, the share will rise. And if people stop believing it will drop. Both regardless of the actual metrics behind. When Tesla gains or lose more than 10% IN A DAY, it's not because suddenly their metrics are 10% better or worse, it's just the mirror of the market's collective psychology.
- benj111 8y agoWhile I don't disagree with you (are you not describing every bubble in history?), eventually the music will stop and any 'investor' should at least be making reasonably sure there is a seat nearby. Tesla's jump on their earnings report was as I understand it, because they made a profit. I suppose you could make a case for that increasing the 'value' much more than 10%. (although I could also take it as a signal for the end of teslas growth phase, and mark it down.) Hopefully all the different opinions average out at 'the one true answer' (tm).
- Someone1234 8y agoI don't think it is much of a stretch to suggest that Electrek is part of Tesla's marketing team. In a similar way to The Verge being part of Apple's.
- webwielder2 8y agoThe Verge are Google/Android fanboys at heart. Unclear to me how they got the iVerge moniker besides giving good scores to Apple’s objectively good devices.
- rchaud 8y agoThat reputation came about due to their notorious review of the Nokia Lumia 900 in 2012. The reviewer gave it lower numerical scores than the iPhone on various factors like ergonomics and camera even though the review text didn't imply that it was lower quality. That led to accusations of Apple bias, especially because of editor Topolsky's love of all things Apple back during his Engadget days. I think it's still their most-commented article ever.
- dagw 8y agoIn a similar way to The Verge being part of Apple's ??? I read The Verge fairly regularly and can't recall them ever regularly giving undue praise to Apple. I mean if nothing else, they gave both the latest iPad and MBA a 7.5/10
- jseliger 8y agoIf you're looking for more context for this, Benedict Evans lays out the bull and bear cases for Tesla vis a vis other car makers: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-software-and-disruption https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft.... Right now, IMO, it isn't clear who will "win." If anyone. But Tesla can certainly plausibly win. It can also plausibly lose.
- tonyedgecombe 8y agoIt does seem to me there is a lot more competition just around the corner from Jaguar (iPace), Mercedes (EQ), Audi (e-tron), etc. I expect supply of all of these will be constrained to start with but Tesla isn't going to have the high end of the market to itself for much longer.
- ckastner 8y agoBMW reported profits of €8.7bn for the year 2017. [1] Tesla stockholders must be very, very optimistic about its future performance when they value Tesla more than an already established, immensely profitable player. [1] https://phys.org/news/2018-03-bmw-net-profit-bn-euros.html https://phys.org/news/2018-03-bmw-net-profit-bn-euros.html
- DanCarvajal 8y agoStockholders just believe the no one else will ever be able to make an electric car.
- codeulike 8y agoBattery packs for EVs are expensive and heavy. And more complicated than people realise. They're not just big batteries. Making an electric car with decent range at an affordable price* is not easy at all. Tesla is closer than anyone else. * edit: an affordable price that isn't loss-making, I should say
- rootusrootus 8y agoBoth Chevy and Hyundai have decent range EVs that are significantly less expensive than a Tesla, so it seems like it's not a problem only Tesla knows the answer to.
- JoeAltmaier 8y agoThe Bolt at 238 miles is still quite a bit under the Tesla which can reach 300+. But at half the cost, its a price point that will suit many folks.
- rootusrootus 8y agoOnly because Chevy doesn't offer an LR upgrade for the Bolt. Otherwise it seems like it has more range than a 220-mile Model 3?
- cache_miss 8y agoAs a former BMW fanboy, here's my take: 1) Over the past decade, BMW has snuffed the enthusiast/semi-enthusiast crowd to cater to mainstream luxury buyers. 2) Anecdotally, I've noticed that the Tesla buyers of today were the BMW/Audi buyers of yesterday. Who's still interested in new BMWs?
- LeonM 8y ago> Who's still interested in new BMWs? This. Exactly this. I've overheard potential buyers (not just at BMW, but all car dealerships) asking questions like: - Can I get this car in an all-electric version? > No - Can I get this car with AWD (dual motor) > No - Can I get this car with autopilot > No - Will this car receive updates over the air? > No - Does the base model come with 300+ HP? > No - Can I control this car using an app? > No - Can I fuel/charge for free? > No Then why pay 80k for a 5-series, if you can also get a tesla for that price?
- cache_miss 8y agoNot to mention resale. A 2013 Model S still sells for 40k. A 2013 BMW 5-series sells for about 15k. All BMW has left is its badge.
- hcg 8y agoThey should really just have anyone who asks if they can control the car using an app tossed out.
- LeonM 8y agoBeing able to pre-heat the cabin, or checking the charge status on a phone is a reason to be 'tossed out' of the dealership? Boy, you'd be a good car salesman!
- abledon 8y agoTesla is the new status symbol. Tech is in today. If you are an elite business man and don't have the highend flagship phone, either pixel 3 or iphone XR etc... you are not respected. Similarly if you don't have the coolest and most high tech car (Tesla), you are not respected.
- _Codemonkeyism 8y agoDoesn't matter all car companies are toast, car sales are falling, iPhones have eclipsed cars as a status symbol among young people. Many of my friends no longer have cars. The ones successfully migrating to autopilot Uber style service have a bright future. Mercedes and BMW have the most successful in Germany (they merged their operations), so the real next decade competitor of BMW is Uber/Lyft not Tesla. I guess it depends on how good autopilots will be (and there are rumors Musk really wants to to move into that space and Tesla is the means to do that). If Google and Apple and Amazon get into that space, I guess consumers would choose their service over a BMW/Mercedes company though - they have the better tech brand and people would rather get into a driverless Apple/Google product than BMW/Mercedes. Most people in this thread write from a US centric view where people live a long way outside of cities so they can't imagine what's coming.
- MuffinFlavored 8y ago> iPhones have eclipsed cars as a status symbol among young people uhh... People use their iPhone to go on Instagram and like photos of people with $300k cars. I pinky promise.
- _Codemonkeyism 8y agoLet me google that for you: https://www.google.com/search?q=cars+no+longer+status+symbol https://www.google.com/search?q=cars+no+longer+status+symbol https://www.google.com/search?q=iphones%20have%20cars%20status%20symbols https://www.google.com/search?q=iphones%20have%20cars%20stat...
- MuffinFlavored 8y agoYou are literally talking to somebody born in the 90s that 1,000% sees cars as a status symbol, and all of my friends do too. If we see a modern Rolls Royce, Lamborghini, Ferrari, or McLaren, we all pay mental respect to the owner/driver because we know what depreciation + upkeep cost for that driver. A $15/hr call center rep leasing a $27/mo $699 iPhone for 18 months is so far from the scale of $300k supercar that it makes me physically angry to have to write back to this.
- Nasrudith 8y agoI think BMWs failures are the most significant part about it. They are still tainted by their emissions cheating scandal and accordingly viewed as shifty people who will sell you a car that isn't really accredited. I would be overjoyed to see others entering the electric market at a broad scale but right now I haven't seen anything to give me confidence. They are trying luxury with a tarnished brand and even say stuff like electric cars will always be more expensive which is a clear lack of long term vision. Always is a very long time. Even an absolute pessimist should say "probably not in our lifetime" because in the long run stored energy sources will either be best off unused for whatever reason or used up already there will come down two choices for storing energy from our actual power sources - fixing our own novel hydrocarbons or batteries. The one has a far higher storage efficiency and less overhead if we are stick even if we assume absolute stagnation in battery tech and thermodynamic limits in fuel efficiency.
- tonyedgecombe 8y agoWasn't it VW/Audi that got caught up in the emissions cheating or did I miss something?
- Nasrudith 8y agoThey did as well. They were a lesser fined one discovered later also using defeat devices but they are also dirty.
- OnlyRepliesToBS 8y agostop this penis measuring bullshit fucking sell cars people want, both of you