7 ms·

I think Apple has some serious issues with growth; they have expanded a huge amount based on a few key and impressive products and ideas at the right time and i

I think Apple has some serious issues with growth; they have expanded a huge amount based on a few key and impressive products and ideas at the right time and in the right way, but I think they've ridden that pony almost as far as it can go [but they've done a better job than most at it]. They have done very well with it, but like most corporations who do that, they usually miss the next big thing, because it is some scrappy underdog, or just another competitor with a little bit more insight, who sees the next big thing. I think they will do just fine with their current market and design ethic for their current audience, but I don't think they are going to see any more rapid expansion unless they get some major revitalization. They've lost some of the key risk-takers and creatives and I think they've entered the management mode once more.

sanderjd 8y ago
What is the next big thing that they have missed?
- amelius 8y ago
  Openness.
  - simonh 8y ago
    Openness is a pretty old big thing at this point. Apple haven't been open since the Apple II and it's worked out fine for them. Arguably the 'open' camp has missed the current big thing - privacy and security. Yes they are one thing, just with two sides to it.
    - Yetanfou 8y ago
      What makes you think that the 'open' camp has missed the current big thing - privacy and security? It can only be that you drank the Kool Aid Apple provided. Security-wise the 'open' camp - which includes things like Linux, *BSD and AOSP (which can be called 'Android' as long as you keep in mind not to include the Google-proprietary bits) has a better track record than Apple, privacy-wise there is no comparison. I put way more trust in those than I do in Apple as that is, after all, a commercial enterprise with a single goal.
      - simonh 8y ago
        The cognitive dissonance in this post is giving me a headache. You don’t get to be the gatekeeper of what constitutes an open AOSP phone or anything else. If you say AOSP has a better track record than Apple in terms of privacy and security, on what basis do you get to say “except all the AOSP phones with Google services and misc crapware and insecure hacks slapped on by their no name Chinese OEMs?” Those are open too. How does that exception serve the hundreds of millions of people walking around with old unpatched ‘open’ phones full of insecure junk-ware and manufacturer hacks?
        Yetanfou 8y ago
        The 'open camp' has a better track record than Apple, not 'AOSP'. No cognitive dissonance here, just facts. By the way, if you really want to experience cognitive dissonance contemplate the fact that those same 'Chinese OEMs' produce Apple hardware. Just look at the back of nearly anything branded with that apple, it'll say 'designed in California, made in China' or something similar. Do you still trust that iPhone in your pocket knowing that it was made on the other side of the Great Firewall?
        deleted 8y ago
        [deleted]
        simonh 8y ago
        Wow. I rest my case.
    - GeekyBear 8y ago
      Given the way Google has walked back the Android platform's "openness" by moving more and more APIs that modern apps require access to into Google Play Services, they are now missing out on security, privacy, and openness.
      - simonh 8y ago
        Right, because being open says nothing about quality, reliability, security, or really anything much at all. What matters is accountability. If you give your stuff away and third parties hack, abuse, crapify and sell on your stuff with a name associated with you on it, that’s a problem. It is more open, but it’s more open to abuse much as to anything else.
- bedhead 8y ago
  I think it's pretty clear that online video slipped right through their fingers. They were early with Apple TV and Steve Jobs' assertion that he had "cracked" TV back in 2011. And what happened? They did almost nothing and let Netflix run away with it. Apple wasn't even a contender. Same thing goes for mapping, which was highlighted in that recent blog post. They came out with Apple Maps years ago but almost did nothing with it...it feels like they half-assed the whole project and are now flailing in catch-up mode. It seems their status as also-ran is now permanent. They shut down their router business while Ubiquiti (run by a former Apple engineer) has run wild in the networking world and looks primed to completely disrupt Cisco over time. They clung onto Apple Music, pot-committed to a model that looked outdated the moment Spotify launched in the US. They've had some successes like Apple Watch, so I wouldn't write Apple off just yet. But yeah, the things they've missed which they should've known better about is a bit concerning.
  - bunnycorn 8y ago
    Online video and Maps. Markets that started before the iPhone and when Apple was collaborating very closely with Google. Apple let Google win in those markets without opposition and then Google stabbed Apple in the back with Android. Reminder that the original iOS versions had YouTube built in, and Google Maps.
    - mikepurvis 8y ago
      Not only were they built into the OS, pre-dating any third-party app capabilities, but the native apps literally were designed by Apple engineers. Like, Apple created the entire blueprint for what the end user experience on mobile was supposed to be, and was happy for Google to supply the backend service and collect all the analytics and advertising revenue.
  - 013a 8y ago
    I don't believe these are "missed opportunities". A true missed opportunity would be, say, Microsoft and the phone market. The train came and went on that because of the network effects of a phone platform putting momentum behind incumbents. Look at Apple Music. Spotify was released in 2008. Google Play Music All Access in 2013. Apple Music was released in 2015. For being technically 8 years late, APM has 50M subscribers, compared to Spotify's 75M [1] (GPM is probably harder to measure because the subscription is combined with YTP/YTM, I pay for it but literally never use it). If that wasn't impressive, realize that APM is marketed just to Apple users, whereas all those other platforms do everything they can to get users on every platform (APM is available on Windows and Android, though I'd love to see the user counts for those platforms over the competition, likely very low). Apple Maps and the routers are really weird things to pick on. They're not core at all to Apple's business model. They're fungible products; you can use any mapping software or any router and get 98% of the same experience. Apple simply doesn't invest a lot in fungible products; they invest in products where they can make a true 10x difference for their customers. iCloud Drive is the same way; customers want it so they'll make it, but they're not going to drop $5B developing it. An Apple TV subscription service is more similar to APM than anything else, with the exception that music streaming services are expected to have "everything" on the platform whereas streaming services just need to host those handful of shows you watch to justify the subscription price. And they might have a great lineup coming up the pipeline here; they've ordered shows from Ronald Moore, a TV adaptation of Foundation, a comedy from the co-creators of Its Always Sunny, a show produced by J.J. Abrams, etc; I think they're in a good place to drop a big announcement and secure a LOT of subscribers. [2] [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/careypurcell/2018/05/15/with-50-million-subscribers-apple-music-still-lags-behind-spotify-for-now/#1cd40128557f https://www.forbes.com/sites/careypurcell/2018/05/15/with-50... [2] https://appleinsider.com/articles/18/07/11/here-are-all-of-the-future-tv-shows-that-apple-has-signed-deals-for https://appleinsider.com/articles/18/07/11/here-are-all-of-t...
- creddit 8y ago
  Smart speakers and possibly smart home in general. They won't/haven't missed entirely, but they are quite behind Alphabet and Amazon.
  - bedhead 8y ago
    Good one, forgot that.
  - cmsj 8y ago
    I think that depends how you define "behind". HomeKit has some functionality gaps at the moment, and less hardware supports it, but what it does do, it does tremendously well and with higher security bars than some of the competing technologies.
    - elsonrodriguez 8y ago
      I have a full Homekit setup and I have to agree. I didn't try Google, but Amazon was a confusing experience. At the end of it turns out requests to turn off my lights had to go over the internet, vs Homekit where all device signaling is handled locally. But what I think the parent was referring to is that Apple has no hardware offerings for the home aside from Homepod and Apple TV. Meanwhile Google has Nest and Amazon has Ring.
      - creddit 8y ago
        Yes, this is correct. Apple doesn’t make money from HomeKit directly. That’s just a feature of their ecosystem: not a product within it. Currently, Apple only has the HomePod which is frankly quite weak relative to a Google Home or Echo. Then of course there is no Nest or Ring competitor product line.
013a 8y ago
I think you're right, and that's what makes Apple such a historically powerful company. They're the most valuable public company on the planet and there are still things where I'm like "if they just did this they could be so much bigger." That's insanely impressive; to be honest, would you rather the situation be "they're the largest company on the planet and they're extracting all the growth opportunities in the market that I can see?"
beat 8y ago
What they can do is simply buy up companies that have already built leading positions in emerging tech markets. When you have such fat stacks of cash sitting around, it's an easy growth strategy.
- bunnycorn 8y ago
  If Netflix wasn't already such a over-inflated company (P/E of 110), they would outright buy the company.
bunnycorn 8y ago
> I think Apple has some serious issues with growth Apple has just announced a 20% year over year growth. > but I think they've ridden that pony almost as far as it can go 17% growth in the services division that is now bigger than the Mac or iPad, and bigger than Facebook and Netflix (combined) 31% growth over year for the small accessories. Apple Watch, HomePods and AirPods cathegory. The cathegories that poundits were betting hard on Apple losing and the "press" making downright negative reviews? > They've lost some of the key risk-takers and creatives Who are those? That Tony Fadell that has been aquihired by Google and then fired because his company outright failed?
- cvwright 8y ago
  > > They've lost some of the key risk-takers and creatives > Who are those? Well, there was this guy Steve, for one...

sanderjd 8y ago

What is the next big thing that they have missed?

amelius 8y ago
Openness.
- simonh 8y ago
  Openness is a pretty old big thing at this point. Apple haven't been open since the Apple II and it's worked out fine for them. Arguably the 'open' camp has missed the current big thing - privacy and security. Yes they are one thing, just with two sides to it.
  - Yetanfou 8y ago
    What makes you think that the 'open' camp has missed the current big thing - privacy and security? It can only be that you drank the Kool Aid Apple provided. Security-wise the 'open' camp - which includes things like Linux, *BSD and AOSP (which can be called 'Android' as long as you keep in mind not to include the Google-proprietary bits) has a better track record than Apple, privacy-wise there is no comparison. I put way more trust in those than I do in Apple as that is, after all, a commercial enterprise with a single goal.
    - simonh 8y ago
      The cognitive dissonance in this post is giving me a headache. You don’t get to be the gatekeeper of what constitutes an open AOSP phone or anything else. If you say AOSP has a better track record than Apple in terms of privacy and security, on what basis do you get to say “except all the AOSP phones with Google services and misc crapware and insecure hacks slapped on by their no name Chinese OEMs?” Those are open too. How does that exception serve the hundreds of millions of people walking around with old unpatched ‘open’ phones full of insecure junk-ware and manufacturer hacks?
      - Yetanfou 8y ago
        The 'open camp' has a better track record than Apple, not 'AOSP'. No cognitive dissonance here, just facts. By the way, if you really want to experience cognitive dissonance contemplate the fact that those same 'Chinese OEMs' produce Apple hardware. Just look at the back of nearly anything branded with that apple, it'll say 'designed in California, made in China' or something similar. Do you still trust that iPhone in your pocket knowing that it was made on the other side of the Great Firewall?
        deleted 8y ago
        [deleted]
        simonh 8y ago
        Wow. I rest my case.
  - GeekyBear 8y ago
    Given the way Google has walked back the Android platform's "openness" by moving more and more APIs that modern apps require access to into Google Play Services, they are now missing out on security, privacy, and openness.
    - simonh 8y ago
      Right, because being open says nothing about quality, reliability, security, or really anything much at all. What matters is accountability. If you give your stuff away and third parties hack, abuse, crapify and sell on your stuff with a name associated with you on it, that’s a problem. It is more open, but it’s more open to abuse much as to anything else.
bedhead 8y ago
I think it's pretty clear that online video slipped right through their fingers. They were early with Apple TV and Steve Jobs' assertion that he had "cracked" TV back in 2011. And what happened? They did almost nothing and let Netflix run away with it. Apple wasn't even a contender. Same thing goes for mapping, which was highlighted in that recent blog post. They came out with Apple Maps years ago but almost did nothing with it...it feels like they half-assed the whole project and are now flailing in catch-up mode. It seems their status as also-ran is now permanent. They shut down their router business while Ubiquiti (run by a former Apple engineer) has run wild in the networking world and looks primed to completely disrupt Cisco over time. They clung onto Apple Music, pot-committed to a model that looked outdated the moment Spotify launched in the US. They've had some successes like Apple Watch, so I wouldn't write Apple off just yet. But yeah, the things they've missed which they should've known better about is a bit concerning.
- bunnycorn 8y ago
  Online video and Maps. Markets that started before the iPhone and when Apple was collaborating very closely with Google. Apple let Google win in those markets without opposition and then Google stabbed Apple in the back with Android. Reminder that the original iOS versions had YouTube built in, and Google Maps.
  - mikepurvis 8y ago
    Not only were they built into the OS, pre-dating any third-party app capabilities, but the native apps literally were designed by Apple engineers. Like, Apple created the entire blueprint for what the end user experience on mobile was supposed to be, and was happy for Google to supply the backend service and collect all the analytics and advertising revenue.
- 013a 8y ago
  I don't believe these are "missed opportunities". A true missed opportunity would be, say, Microsoft and the phone market. The train came and went on that because of the network effects of a phone platform putting momentum behind incumbents. Look at Apple Music. Spotify was released in 2008. Google Play Music All Access in 2013. Apple Music was released in 2015. For being technically 8 years late, APM has 50M subscribers, compared to Spotify's 75M [1] (GPM is probably harder to measure because the subscription is combined with YTP/YTM, I pay for it but literally never use it). If that wasn't impressive, realize that APM is marketed just to Apple users, whereas all those other platforms do everything they can to get users on every platform (APM is available on Windows and Android, though I'd love to see the user counts for those platforms over the competition, likely very low). Apple Maps and the routers are really weird things to pick on. They're not core at all to Apple's business model. They're fungible products; you can use any mapping software or any router and get 98% of the same experience. Apple simply doesn't invest a lot in fungible products; they invest in products where they can make a true 10x difference for their customers. iCloud Drive is the same way; customers want it so they'll make it, but they're not going to drop $5B developing it. An Apple TV subscription service is more similar to APM than anything else, with the exception that music streaming services are expected to have "everything" on the platform whereas streaming services just need to host those handful of shows you watch to justify the subscription price. And they might have a great lineup coming up the pipeline here; they've ordered shows from Ronald Moore, a TV adaptation of Foundation, a comedy from the co-creators of Its Always Sunny, a show produced by J.J. Abrams, etc; I think they're in a good place to drop a big announcement and secure a LOT of subscribers. [2] [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/careypurcell/2018/05/15/with-50-million-subscribers-apple-music-still-lags-behind-spotify-for-now/#1cd40128557f https://www.forbes.com/sites/careypurcell/2018/05/15/with-50... [2] https://appleinsider.com/articles/18/07/11/here-are-all-of-the-future-tv-shows-that-apple-has-signed-deals-for https://appleinsider.com/articles/18/07/11/here-are-all-of-t...
creddit 8y ago
Smart speakers and possibly smart home in general. They won't/haven't missed entirely, but they are quite behind Alphabet and Amazon.
- bedhead 8y ago
  Good one, forgot that.
- cmsj 8y ago
  I think that depends how you define "behind". HomeKit has some functionality gaps at the moment, and less hardware supports it, but what it does do, it does tremendously well and with higher security bars than some of the competing technologies.
  - elsonrodriguez 8y ago
    I have a full Homekit setup and I have to agree. I didn't try Google, but Amazon was a confusing experience. At the end of it turns out requests to turn off my lights had to go over the internet, vs Homekit where all device signaling is handled locally. But what I think the parent was referring to is that Apple has no hardware offerings for the home aside from Homepod and Apple TV. Meanwhile Google has Nest and Amazon has Ring.
    - creddit 8y ago
      Yes, this is correct. Apple doesn’t make money from HomeKit directly. That’s just a feature of their ecosystem: not a product within it. Currently, Apple only has the HomePod which is frankly quite weak relative to a Google Home or Echo. Then of course there is no Nest or Ring competitor product line.

013a 8y ago

I think you're right, and that's what makes Apple such a historically powerful company. They're the most valuable public company on the planet and there are still things where I'm like "if they just did this they could be so much bigger." That's insanely impressive; to be honest, would you rather the situation be "they're the largest company on the planet and they're extracting all the growth opportunities in the market that I can see?"

beat 8y ago

What they can do is simply buy up companies that have already built leading positions in emerging tech markets. When you have such fat stacks of cash sitting around, it's an easy growth strategy.

bunnycorn 8y ago
If Netflix wasn't already such a over-inflated company (P/E of 110), they would outright buy the company.

bunnycorn 8y ago

> I think Apple has some serious issues with growth Apple has just announced a 20% year over year growth. > but I think they've ridden that pony almost as far as it can go 17% growth in the services division that is now bigger than the Mac or iPad, and bigger than Facebook and Netflix (combined) 31% growth over year for the small accessories. Apple Watch, HomePods and AirPods cathegory. The cathegories that poundits were betting hard on Apple losing and the "press" making downright negative reviews? > They've lost some of the key risk-takers and creatives Who are those? That Tony Fadell that has been aquihired by Google and then fired because his company outright failed?

cvwright 8y ago
> > They've lost some of the key risk-takers and creatives > Who are those? Well, there was this guy Steve, for one...