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Why Democracies Are Turning Against Chinese Influence

78 points by rumcajz 8y ago

hevi_jos 8y ago
It has nothing to do with democracies. It has to do with slavery by debt. Something as old as Roman Empire. The Jews created a cyclic system of years, with one, the Shemittah, the Sabbatical year to free people from debt for this reason. If you want to know how the West has been doing the same (or worse) for a long time you could read "Confessions of an Economic Hitman", by John Perkins.
diminish 8y ago
As several analysts noted "Without a determined political action, within few decades China will be the leading global economic and political power. EU/US and others must join muscles to stop the economic dominaton of China by econ-political means, before it's too late". Day by day, US think-thanks are joining Trump's economic war against China. For US, to build up allies, usual quick wins are Australia, Japan and adversarial countries surrounding China as well as UK and most of Europe and some of South America. Harder competition ahead between China and US will be in Africa, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, Middle East, Asia.
- 2chen 8y ago
  So..what the TPP was supposed to accomplish? At least before Trump's bumbling decision to withdraw to score rhetorical points with his base. Pretty sure think tanks are several moves ahead of Trump, if he even plans out his moves at all.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - dabbledash 8y ago
    Think tanks... third graders... particularly well trained border collies. Doesn’t take a lot to get out in front.
- cinquemb 8y ago
  At least in Indonesia (where I've lived for about 3 years), there has been an anti-Chinese sentiment in the population for a long time (with covert and overert support from the US) it seems[0], and are much more militant about it at all levels (not afraid to routinely blow up Chinese fishing boats who feel enabled by Chinese claims from the islands it has created). [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Chinese_sentiment_in_Indonesia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Chinese_sentiment_in_Indo...
  - diminish 8y ago
    Sentiments against neighbors are the most important part of the strategy. Nearly every country have negative sentiments towards their neighbors. The "gold mines" for strategic policies are religious and ethnic minorities within China. Yet the two main candidates have vast land yet small populations. So Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and any neighboring countries are better allies not to forget India.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- plaidfuji 8y ago
  > and some of South America As I was reading this I thought, “and what happens when our neighbors to the south grow weary of our overbearing regional influence?”
pluma 8y ago
Capitalism. There, saved you the read. EDIT: And before anyone calls modern China "communist": even if that were true, their economic strength buys them influence because the global economy is capitalist.
majia 8y ago
It is a strategic failure that western democracies turned a blind eye to the infrastructure development and poverty reduction in developing nations and enjoyed their special interests inherited from the colonial era. That's why China is welcome when it comes with a cleaner history and less hypocrisy. Had we been more genuinely helping, Chinese influence would not be an issue.
- RobertoG 8y ago
  "[..] western democracies turned a blind eye to the infrastructure development and poverty reduction [..]" In my opinion you are a little too generous here. In many historical cases, and for many countries, a less active involvement of western democracies would mean more development and more poverty reduction. Just think of the interference in internal politics, the support to dictatorial regimens and the imposition of "free trade". Of course, that doesn't mean that the Chinese are going to be better. This part of the article strike me as specially disconnected of reality: "Unlike Western lenders, China does not require its partners to meet stringent conditions related to corruption, human rights [..]" It's specially ironic because, who are the main partners of China if not those Westerns?
  - majia 8y ago
    Its even more ironic to consider who are getting investments from Saudi Arabia, whose corruption and human rights situation are far worse than China.
    - C1sc0cat 8y ago
      Cough Saudi Arabia isn't putting its minority religious populations in camps though. And MBS can be replaced if the collective royal family thinks he is a liability
      - majia 8y ago
        How is starving millions of people to death in Yemen better than Chinese ideological camps? Btw, Saudi isn't putting its minority religious populations in camps because they are dead or fled the country. Replace MBS? Ask Jamal Khashoggi.
grecy 8y ago
"Without a determined political action, within few decades China will be the leading global economic and political power. EU/US and others must join muscles to stop the economic domination of China by econ-political means, before it's too late". Whenever I read statements like that, it's as if somehow the EU/US think they have a right to be the dominant global economic and political power, and somehow it's their moral right to stop anyone else from ascending to that position. China has over a billion people. So does India, so does the continent of Africa. They are all developing much, much faster than the vast majority of people realize [1] Anyone who thinks the EU/US will remain the dominant global economic and political power in the next decades is severely deluded. [1] Checkout the fantastic "Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World--and Why Things Are Better Than You Think " by the master Hans Rosling, where he clearly demonstrates using irrefutable stats that the poorest countries in the world today are developing faster than for example Sweden ever did, at any point in history. https://amzn.to/2CXPdCu https://amzn.to/2CXPdCu
- amreact 8y ago
  The EU/US should try to retain their power because to do so is rational. Do you think that is immoral? If so, why?
- badrabbit 8y ago
  I get what you're saying,I would even say that China is acheiving this without wars, unlike the west. But, they are not very good to their own people and they are extremely distrustful of foreigners. Not just westerners but even in africa they've been caught acting with malicious intentions(the last example I read was how they backdoored the African Union's IT systems). Very hard to trust someone who trusts no one. The primary fear should be wars and global instability instead of who gets to wear the #1 badge. It has not even been a century since WW2,the current chinese regime is operating as a response to WW2 and "running a marathon,not a sprint" to beat the west and russia. China dominating the west would usher in Cold War 2.0(or has it already,pentagon papers and all) except with higher stakes,in the end military dominance matters as much as economic.
  - simonh 8y ago
deadwing0 8y ago
Interesting article. Just found it surprising that there were so many typos in it.
imgabe 8y ago
I was in Hong Kong recently. My girlfriend is doing a postdoc there, so I expect to be there frequently. Two things struck me. 1. China just opened one of the largest bridges in the world, the Hong Kong-Zuhai-Macau bridge. This bridge cuts what used to be 4 hour journey from Hong Kong to mainland China, to 45 minutes. 2. While I was in Hong Kong, there was a disruption in the subway service. Instead of trains running every 3-4 minutes, they were running every 6-8 minutes. Some people experienced delays of up to 15(!) minutes. From the news coverage, you'd think this was a 9/11-level catastrophe. It was the top story all day, and it continues as the company responsible is still offering public apologies and reduced fares to make up for the disruption. It was absolutely inconceivable that the train should ever be late. Meanwhile, back in DC where I live, we count ourselves lucky if the train shows up at all and is not on fire. So leaders can go on about "determined political action" but the bottom line is, China is getting shit done and building things that people can actually use to make their lives better. (Human rights are another story of course). The US and much of the western world seems to have lost any ability to build large-scale infrastructure project, and the infrastructure we do have is crumbling due to neglect. When was the last time something like the Hong Kong-Zuhai-Macau bridge was built in the US? Maybe Robert Moses building highways through Manhattan in the 60s and 70s?
- hyperbovine 8y ago
  Totalitarian governments have a long history of “getting shit done”, as you put it. This is not new. Fewer megabridges is but one of the many prices you pay in return for freedom of expression. By the way, who do you think is most excited about being able to drive a bunch of shit into HK from mainland China on a monent’s notice?
  - Rylinks 8y ago
    why? I do think there is a historical case, but what about freedom of expression makes it harder to build bridges, and is there a way to build bridges anyway?
    - simonh 8y ago
qubax 8y ago
> Why Democracies Are Turning Against Chinese Influence "Democracies"? I get that foreign affairs is a propaganda think tank, but I wish they'd be more honest. People aren't uneducated saps anymore. "why some in the west and others are working to contain china"? would be a better title. Has nothing to do with "democracies". It's not a recent phenomenon. It's not just democracies. Some autocrats also are against chinese influence. But this also applies to every nation. Many democracies and non-democracies are turning against european "influence". Many democracies and non-democracies are turning against american "influence". The same for russia and their former sphere of influence nations. No country wants to be under the thumb of another country. The only difference between china and the US/EU/Russia is that china doesn't bomb and invade democracies or non-democracies to "bring them freedom". At least not yet. Nothing this article stated is new. Essentially, water is wet but propagandized to make it seem our water is better or their is worse.

78 points by rumcajz 8y ago

It has nothing to do with democracies. It has to do with slavery by debt. Something as old as Roman Empire. The Jews created a cyclic system of years, with one, the Shemittah, the Sabbatical year to free people from debt for this reason. If you want to know how the West has been doing the same (or worse) for a long time you could read "Confessions of an Economic Hitman", by John Perkins.

diminish 8y ago

As several analysts noted "Without a determined political action, within few decades China will be the leading global economic and political power. EU/US and others must join muscles to stop the economic dominaton of China by econ-political means, before it's too late". Day by day, US think-thanks are joining Trump's economic war against China. For US, to build up allies, usual quick wins are Australia, Japan and adversarial countries surrounding China as well as UK and most of Europe and some of South America. Harder competition ahead between China and US will be in Africa, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, Middle East, Asia.

2chen 8y ago
So..what the TPP was supposed to accomplish? At least before Trump's bumbling decision to withdraw to score rhetorical points with his base. Pretty sure think tanks are several moves ahead of Trump, if he even plans out his moves at all.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- dabbledash 8y ago
  Think tanks... third graders... particularly well trained border collies. Doesn’t take a lot to get out in front.
cinquemb 8y ago
At least in Indonesia (where I've lived for about 3 years), there has been an anti-Chinese sentiment in the population for a long time (with covert and overert support from the US) it seems[0], and are much more militant about it at all levels (not afraid to routinely blow up Chinese fishing boats who feel enabled by Chinese claims from the islands it has created). [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Chinese_sentiment_in_Indonesia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Chinese_sentiment_in_Indo...
- diminish 8y ago
  Sentiments against neighbors are the most important part of the strategy. Nearly every country have negative sentiments towards their neighbors. The "gold mines" for strategic policies are religious and ethnic minorities within China. Yet the two main candidates have vast land yet small populations. So Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and any neighboring countries are better allies not to forget India.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
plaidfuji 8y ago
> and some of South America As I was reading this I thought, “and what happens when our neighbors to the south grow weary of our overbearing regional influence?”

pluma 8y ago

Capitalism. There, saved you the read. EDIT: And before anyone calls modern China "communist": even if that were true, their economic strength buys them influence because the global economy is capitalist.

majia 8y ago

It is a strategic failure that western democracies turned a blind eye to the infrastructure development and poverty reduction in developing nations and enjoyed their special interests inherited from the colonial era. That's why China is welcome when it comes with a cleaner history and less hypocrisy. Had we been more genuinely helping, Chinese influence would not be an issue.

RobertoG 8y ago
"[..] western democracies turned a blind eye to the infrastructure development and poverty reduction [..]" In my opinion you are a little too generous here. In many historical cases, and for many countries, a less active involvement of western democracies would mean more development and more poverty reduction. Just think of the interference in internal politics, the support to dictatorial regimens and the imposition of "free trade". Of course, that doesn't mean that the Chinese are going to be better. This part of the article strike me as specially disconnected of reality: "Unlike Western lenders, China does not require its partners to meet stringent conditions related to corruption, human rights [..]" It's specially ironic because, who are the main partners of China if not those Westerns?
- majia 8y ago
  Its even more ironic to consider who are getting investments from Saudi Arabia, whose corruption and human rights situation are far worse than China.
  - C1sc0cat 8y ago
    Cough Saudi Arabia isn't putting its minority religious populations in camps though. And MBS can be replaced if the collective royal family thinks he is a liability
    - majia 8y ago
      How is starving millions of people to death in Yemen better than Chinese ideological camps? Btw, Saudi isn't putting its minority religious populations in camps because they are dead or fled the country. Replace MBS? Ask Jamal Khashoggi.

grecy 8y ago

"Without a determined political action, within few decades China will be the leading global economic and political power. EU/US and others must join muscles to stop the economic domination of China by econ-political means, before it's too late". Whenever I read statements like that, it's as if somehow the EU/US think they have a right to be the dominant global economic and political power, and somehow it's their moral right to stop anyone else from ascending to that position. China has over a billion people. So does India, so does the continent of Africa. They are all developing much, much faster than the vast majority of people realize [1] Anyone who thinks the EU/US will remain the dominant global economic and political power in the next decades is severely deluded. [1] Checkout the fantastic "Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World--and Why Things Are Better Than You Think " by the master Hans Rosling, where he clearly demonstrates using irrefutable stats that the poorest countries in the world today are developing faster than for example Sweden ever did, at any point in history. https://amzn.to/2CXPdCu https://amzn.to/2CXPdCu

amreact 8y ago
The EU/US should try to retain their power because to do so is rational. Do you think that is immoral? If so, why?
badrabbit 8y ago
I get what you're saying,I would even say that China is acheiving this without wars, unlike the west. But, they are not very good to their own people and they are extremely distrustful of foreigners. Not just westerners but even in africa they've been caught acting with malicious intentions(the last example I read was how they backdoored the African Union's IT systems). Very hard to trust someone who trusts no one. The primary fear should be wars and global instability instead of who gets to wear the #1 badge. It has not even been a century since WW2,the current chinese regime is operating as a response to WW2 and "running a marathon,not a sprint" to beat the west and russia. China dominating the west would usher in Cold War 2.0(or has it already,pentagon papers and all) except with higher stakes,in the end military dominance matters as much as economic.
- simonh 8y ago

deadwing0 8y ago

Interesting article. Just found it surprising that there were so many typos in it.

imgabe 8y ago

I was in Hong Kong recently. My girlfriend is doing a postdoc there, so I expect to be there frequently. Two things struck me. 1. China just opened one of the largest bridges in the world, the Hong Kong-Zuhai-Macau bridge. This bridge cuts what used to be 4 hour journey from Hong Kong to mainland China, to 45 minutes. 2. While I was in Hong Kong, there was a disruption in the subway service. Instead of trains running every 3-4 minutes, they were running every 6-8 minutes. Some people experienced delays of up to 15(!) minutes. From the news coverage, you'd think this was a 9/11-level catastrophe. It was the top story all day, and it continues as the company responsible is still offering public apologies and reduced fares to make up for the disruption. It was absolutely inconceivable that the train should ever be late. Meanwhile, back in DC where I live, we count ourselves lucky if the train shows up at all and is not on fire. So leaders can go on about "determined political action" but the bottom line is, China is getting shit done and building things that people can actually use to make their lives better. (Human rights are another story of course). The US and much of the western world seems to have lost any ability to build large-scale infrastructure project, and the infrastructure we do have is crumbling due to neglect. When was the last time something like the Hong Kong-Zuhai-Macau bridge was built in the US? Maybe Robert Moses building highways through Manhattan in the 60s and 70s?

hyperbovine 8y ago
Totalitarian governments have a long history of “getting shit done”, as you put it. This is not new. Fewer megabridges is but one of the many prices you pay in return for freedom of expression. By the way, who do you think is most excited about being able to drive a bunch of shit into HK from mainland China on a monent’s notice?
- Rylinks 8y ago
  why? I do think there is a historical case, but what about freedom of expression makes it harder to build bridges, and is there a way to build bridges anyway?
  - simonh 8y ago

qubax 8y ago

> Why Democracies Are Turning Against Chinese Influence "Democracies"? I get that foreign affairs is a propaganda think tank, but I wish they'd be more honest. People aren't uneducated saps anymore. "why some in the west and others are working to contain china"? would be a better title. Has nothing to do with "democracies". It's not a recent phenomenon. It's not just democracies. Some autocrats also are against chinese influence. But this also applies to every nation. Many democracies and non-democracies are turning against european "influence". Many democracies and non-democracies are turning against american "influence". The same for russia and their former sphere of influence nations. No country wants to be under the thumb of another country. The only difference between china and the US/EU/Russia is that china doesn't bomb and invade democracies or non-democracies to "bring them freedom". At least not yet. Nothing this article stated is new. Essentially, water is wet but propagandized to make it seem our water is better or their is worse.