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I'm not convinced about the multi year advantage. Everyone else has EVs out. They are not pushing them, probably because they are reaping the profits on past IC

I'm not convinced about the multi year advantage. Everyone else has EVs out. They are not pushing them, probably because they are reaping the profits on past ICE investments, but the next tech platforms under development for years now at VW/Mercedes/BMW are electric. VW is planning to get to 10 million EVs by 2022. I'd give credit to Musk and Tesla for bringing forward this point by several years, but it would be silly to write that goal off as empty bluster. (After all they have been selling a well reviewed plug in electric vehicle since 2014, even if no one ever heard about it, and it was priced relatively high. Maybe so as to not interfere with ICE profits).

notaki 8y ago
But no one else is mass producing EV's. VW is just starting to talk about building a gigafactory. Everyone is doing a lot of talking, but they are all years behind Tesla. And even if they stop talking and start doing, they'll need to build a more compelling product than Tesla. That will be very very difficult. Tesla FTW.
- Certhas 8y ago
  "Chinese sales of domestically-built new energy vehicles in 2017 totaled 777,000 units" To first approximation none of these were Teslas. EVs are being mass produced. Mass producing a car might be difficult. But the others manufacturers are already doing that. They need to figure out how to mass produce electronic drive trains (vastly simpler than what they are building now) and batteries. Batterys are more complex, but most of battery production coming online in the next years is Chinese. Tesla is a fraction of what the Chinese are bringing online. I don't see any reason why Teslas long term potential should be higher than, say BMWs. Mind you, creating a BMW size company from scratch while driving the electric transition and a pace faster than we otherwise could have hoped for are amazing achievements.
  - adventured 8y ago
    > Chinese sales of domestically-built new energy vehicles in 2017 totaled 777,000 units Those are gasoline electric hybrids, no more impressive than a Prius technologically from a decade ago that has been brought down in price. China is not mass producing EVs, which is why it's 777,000 "new energy vehicles." That phrasing is the give-away. Otherwise we could just pretend the Prius was the first mass produced EV, when it was not.
    - Certhas 8y ago
      You are right that this figure includes hybrids (PHEV), but the vast majority, 652.000, are pure battery (BEV): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_energy_vehicles_in_China#/media/File:PEV_Registrations_China_from_2011.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_energy_vehicles_in_China#/... I did check that before but copy pasted the wrong line.
    - nikofeyn 8y ago
      yes they are. in a recent trip to china nearly all of my didi trips were in electric vehicles from two or three different manufacturers. all of these cars were nice but clearly affordable. and as the other commenter pointed out, china still sells more electric vehicles than anyone else in the world. china also has a high-end electric vehicle maker in nio.
- madengr 8y ago
  So the Nissan Leaf is not mass produced?
- Nokinside 8y ago
  It's not just talk. Several projects have already started in Europe. Some of them have former Tesla executives. Tesla owns the patents and innovates only in the battery packs. The battery cell technology is owned by Panasonic. South Korean, Japanese and Chinese are leading in battery cell technology and not all of them are teaming with Tesla.
leesec 8y ago
And how will you charge them for road trips, on Tesla's supercharging network? It takes time to build up the network.
- brewdad 8y ago
  Rent an ICE car for the couple of times a year I take a road trip. The other 350+ days a year, I can use my electric vehicle just fine.
- cvbhhbgh 8y ago
  The way Nissan did < Dealers. Also, car companies can get together and let their cars charge at each other’s dealers. Then lock out Teslas until TSLA agrees to join. Also, gas stations don’t make money selling gas (!!) but by selling candy [1]They couldn’t care less if they’re charging $60 to fill your car or 0.60. In fact, the longer it takes to charge your car unattended the more Andy you’ll buy [1] source: talk by Exxon-Mobile VP at my univ. back in ‘08 (?)
  - QuantumGood 8y ago
    Profit is from cigarettes. Source: friend who buys gas stations.
    - cvbhhbgh 8y ago
      Cigarettes, beer, candy. The profit it’s not on the gas. The ppl that flip out about the price and take it out on the stations are nuts Also I don’t think the VP of one of the most maligned industries wanted to highlight that their profit is from selling the most maligned product :)
  - Latteland 8y ago
    It's the other car dealers who will have to pay Tesla. T has the best chargers and all over the places you want them to be. T can already use all the other charging standards but they can't use Tesla chargers.
Redoubts 8y ago
> VW is planning to get to 10 million EVs by 2022. They say, as they discontinued production of VW eGolfs.
- ryanmarsh 8y ago
  Which related company recently launched an electric car? How many pre orders did they get?
QuantumGood 8y ago
I hear this a lot, but it's always (necessarily?) very vague. What scenario(s) are insufficiently affected by the first mover advantage? Define the scenario(s), define "insufficiently", define first mover/head start.

notaki 8y ago

But no one else is mass producing EV's. VW is just starting to talk about building a gigafactory. Everyone is doing a lot of talking, but they are all years behind Tesla. And even if they stop talking and start doing, they'll need to build a more compelling product than Tesla. That will be very very difficult. Tesla FTW.

Certhas 8y ago
"Chinese sales of domestically-built new energy vehicles in 2017 totaled 777,000 units" To first approximation none of these were Teslas. EVs are being mass produced. Mass producing a car might be difficult. But the others manufacturers are already doing that. They need to figure out how to mass produce electronic drive trains (vastly simpler than what they are building now) and batteries. Batterys are more complex, but most of battery production coming online in the next years is Chinese. Tesla is a fraction of what the Chinese are bringing online. I don't see any reason why Teslas long term potential should be higher than, say BMWs. Mind you, creating a BMW size company from scratch while driving the electric transition and a pace faster than we otherwise could have hoped for are amazing achievements.
- adventured 8y ago
  > Chinese sales of domestically-built new energy vehicles in 2017 totaled 777,000 units Those are gasoline electric hybrids, no more impressive than a Prius technologically from a decade ago that has been brought down in price. China is not mass producing EVs, which is why it's 777,000 "new energy vehicles." That phrasing is the give-away. Otherwise we could just pretend the Prius was the first mass produced EV, when it was not.
  - Certhas 8y ago
    You are right that this figure includes hybrids (PHEV), but the vast majority, 652.000, are pure battery (BEV): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_energy_vehicles_in_China#/media/File:PEV_Registrations_China_from_2011.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_energy_vehicles_in_China#/... I did check that before but copy pasted the wrong line.
  - nikofeyn 8y ago
    yes they are. in a recent trip to china nearly all of my didi trips were in electric vehicles from two or three different manufacturers. all of these cars were nice but clearly affordable. and as the other commenter pointed out, china still sells more electric vehicles than anyone else in the world. china also has a high-end electric vehicle maker in nio.
madengr 8y ago
So the Nissan Leaf is not mass produced?
Nokinside 8y ago
It's not just talk. Several projects have already started in Europe. Some of them have former Tesla executives. Tesla owns the patents and innovates only in the battery packs. The battery cell technology is owned by Panasonic. South Korean, Japanese and Chinese are leading in battery cell technology and not all of them are teaming with Tesla.

leesec 8y ago

And how will you charge them for road trips, on Tesla's supercharging network? It takes time to build up the network.

brewdad 8y ago
Rent an ICE car for the couple of times a year I take a road trip. The other 350+ days a year, I can use my electric vehicle just fine.
cvbhhbgh 8y ago
The way Nissan did < Dealers. Also, car companies can get together and let their cars charge at each other’s dealers. Then lock out Teslas until TSLA agrees to join. Also, gas stations don’t make money selling gas (!!) but by selling candy [1]They couldn’t care less if they’re charging $60 to fill your car or 0.60. In fact, the longer it takes to charge your car unattended the more Andy you’ll buy [1] source: talk by Exxon-Mobile VP at my univ. back in ‘08 (?)
- QuantumGood 8y ago
  Profit is from cigarettes. Source: friend who buys gas stations.
  - cvbhhbgh 8y ago
    Cigarettes, beer, candy. The profit it’s not on the gas. The ppl that flip out about the price and take it out on the stations are nuts Also I don’t think the VP of one of the most maligned industries wanted to highlight that their profit is from selling the most maligned product :)
- Latteland 8y ago
  It's the other car dealers who will have to pay Tesla. T has the best chargers and all over the places you want them to be. T can already use all the other charging standards but they can't use Tesla chargers.

Redoubts 8y ago

> VW is planning to get to 10 million EVs by 2022. They say, as they discontinued production of VW eGolfs.

ryanmarsh 8y ago
Which related company recently launched an electric car? How many pre orders did they get?

QuantumGood 8y ago

I hear this a lot, but it's always (necessarily?) very vague. What scenario(s) are insufficiently affected by the first mover advantage? Define the scenario(s), define "insufficiently", define first mover/head start.