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I had a few lectures with Professor Ilya Strebulaev from Stanford GSB back in 2016. https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/faculty/ilya-strebulaev https
by chriselles 8y ago
I had a few lectures with Professor Ilya Strebulaev from Stanford GSB back in 2016.
https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/faculty/ilya-strebulaev https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/faculty/ilya-s...
He wrote a few articles.
1)How much VC drives the US economy(October,2015):
https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/how-much-does-venture-capital-drive-us-economy https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/how-much-does-venture-...
2)Unicorns are overvalued(May,2017):
https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/silicon-valleys-unicorns-are-overvalued https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/silicon-valleys-unicor...
In class in 2016 Ilya Strebulaev(who has arguably the best VC dataset in the world) stated that 92% of VCs surveyed believed unicorns were overalued and a correction was likely.
He also told our class a very memorable and self effacing story of how he placed a bet with a colleague for a bottle of nice wine on the future date of bankruptcy of GM.
In order to win the bet, the GM bankruptcy had to occur prior to X date.
GM’s bankruptcy was date X+1, thus losing the bet.
A lesson on timing. Even when you’re “right”, you can be wrong.
Perhaps a Saudi assassination “string” pulled too hard for too long could see a cascading effect.
It’s inevitable we will see a correction in valuations.
But I also think it’s pointless to fear it.
That time is better spent building a sustainable business on a fair valuation with more challenging access to capital.
YC’s suggestion for YC Batch(as well as all other) startups to be careful with not accepting money and scaling a startup at excessive valuation sounds like a solid one in this climate and the likely future.
- hiram112 8y ago> GM’s bankruptcy was date X+1, thus losing the bet. A lesson on timing. Even when you’re “right”, you can be wrong. Anyone who has tried their luck at day-trading has learned their lesson, i.e. "The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent".
- nradov 8y agoPlus once politics becomes involved, economic rationality goes right out the window. There's no way to reliably forecast that.
- creaghpatr 8y ago>That time is better spent building a sustainable business on a fair valuation with more challenging access to capital. The problems change, but the solution remains fairly consistent!
- nradov 8y agoRidiculous valuations of unicorns by late-stage VCs are driven more by FOMO than by any rational economic analysis. It's like when everyone in an office pools their money to buy lottery tickets. You know you probably aren't going to win, but you put in a few dollars anyway because you'd feel stupid if your coworkers won and you were the only one left out.