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The field of climate science is entirely underpinned by models...
by nostrebored 8y ago
The field of climate science is entirely underpinned by models...
- pdonis 8y ago> The field of climate science is entirely underpinned by models... This is not correct. There is plenty of data in climate science. There just isn't a good enough understanding of the underlying mechanisms to make predictions that are accurate enough to drive multi-trillion-dollar public policy decisions.
- nostrebored 8y agoThat's the implication that I was going for. As someone who's studied data science and modeling I agree with this wholeheartedly.
- DennisP 8y agoRead Hansen's book sometime. There's plenty of direct geological evidence that puts a pretty good bound on climate sensitivity, without depending on computer models at all. This is because the climate has gone through major changes before, and we can see how much of an initial push it took, and what happened afterwards.
- nostrebored 8y agoI'll check it out, but the second portion of your comment seems questionable. Trending to a local minimum or maximum in modeling can be caused by small changes at certain points dependent on time and be completely negligible at other points. Without understanding the model: 1. We can't even pretend to understand causality 2. We can't infer the complex state at an individual time or even the magnitude of a push.