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This kind of "economists are always wrong because they didn't foresee a major problem" is like saying "engineers are always wrong because they don't foresee iss

This kind of "economists are always wrong because they didn't foresee a major problem" is like saying "engineers are always wrong because they don't foresee issues caused by DNS"

onlyrealcuzzo 8y ago
It's almost as if people don't understand uncertainty. Just because economists are not EXACTLY right about everything, does not mean they are ALWAYS wrong... Think about all the possible scenarios that could have happened in 2008, and think about how closely economists -- on average -- were to that. They're actually ASTOUNDINGLY accurate. But just because they're not completely accurate, for some reason so many people think they have 0 value.
- wgerard 8y ago
  Eh, I think the sentiment is more like that saying "Economists have predicted 10 out of the last 3 recessions". There are always lots of reasons to be concerned, lots of leverage that could crash catastrophically (and often does). Whether that triggers an actual recession or just a correction is the nebulous part. I mean, the S&P is down ~6% over the last 5 days. Are we at the start of a recession right now? Would you be willing to actually bet money on your answer? For the people who do: Are they just lucky, or actually insightful? How would you know the difference? People have always worried about politics interfering with recession recovery - I mean, hell, a big part of the tea party's agenda was opposition to TARP and ARRA (I'm not going to go so far as to say that's WHY the tea party exists, though). Not to be too politically cynical, but I think it's fair to say that politicians will do everything within their power to protect the wealthy and the status quo and any opposition to that will be for show.
  - marcosdumay 8y ago
    > Economists have predicted 10 out of the last 3 recessions On that spirit, engineers have also predicted 200 of the last 5 bridges that felt.
whitepoplar 8y ago
This is a false analogy. Economists bill themselves on being able to guide policy and large-scale decision-making given the tools and research at their disposal. If said tools and research are bunk, then the appropriate action is not to press on with guidance, but to stop with the guidance and predictions altogether. We're in the mess we're in now partly because of risk management techniques that don't work.
- hellogoodbyeeee 8y ago
  >if said tools and research are bunk They aren't though. Also, it's a bit rich to blame economists when all they do is advise politicians who very often throw all the advice out the window.

This kind of "economists are always wrong because they didn't foresee a major problem" is like saying "engineers are always wrong because they don't foresee issues caused by DNS"

onlyrealcuzzo 8y ago

It's almost as if people don't understand uncertainty. Just because economists are not EXACTLY right about everything, does not mean they are ALWAYS wrong... Think about all the possible scenarios that could have happened in 2008, and think about how closely economists -- on average -- were to that. They're actually ASTOUNDINGLY accurate. But just because they're not completely accurate, for some reason so many people think they have 0 value.

wgerard 8y ago
Eh, I think the sentiment is more like that saying "Economists have predicted 10 out of the last 3 recessions". There are always lots of reasons to be concerned, lots of leverage that could crash catastrophically (and often does). Whether that triggers an actual recession or just a correction is the nebulous part. I mean, the S&P is down ~6% over the last 5 days. Are we at the start of a recession right now? Would you be willing to actually bet money on your answer? For the people who do: Are they just lucky, or actually insightful? How would you know the difference? People have always worried about politics interfering with recession recovery - I mean, hell, a big part of the tea party's agenda was opposition to TARP and ARRA (I'm not going to go so far as to say that's WHY the tea party exists, though). Not to be too politically cynical, but I think it's fair to say that politicians will do everything within their power to protect the wealthy and the status quo and any opposition to that will be for show.
- marcosdumay 8y ago
  > Economists have predicted 10 out of the last 3 recessions On that spirit, engineers have also predicted 200 of the last 5 bridges that felt.

whitepoplar 8y ago

This is a false analogy. Economists bill themselves on being able to guide policy and large-scale decision-making given the tools and research at their disposal. If said tools and research are bunk, then the appropriate action is not to press on with guidance, but to stop with the guidance and predictions altogether. We're in the mess we're in now partly because of risk management techniques that don't work.

hellogoodbyeeee 8y ago
>if said tools and research are bunk They aren't though. Also, it's a bit rich to blame economists when all they do is advise politicians who very often throw all the advice out the window.