Expert committee estimation (most commonly the Delphi method is cited) is one are that has shown improved estimation accuracy: https://www.computing.dcu.ie/~re

Expert committee estimation (most commonly the Delphi method is cited) is one are that has shown improved estimation accuracy: https://www.computing.dcu.ie/~renaat/ca421/LWu1.html https://www.computing.dcu.ie/~renaat/ca421/LWu1.html The SEI recognizing the weaknesses of expert judgement estimates has layered on QUELCE which applies Monte Carlo simulations to the estimates: https://www.sei.cmu.edu/research-capabilities/all-work/display.cfm?customel_datapageid_4050=4542 https://www.sei.cmu.edu/research-capabilities/all-work/displ... Note that QUELCE is an ongoing research methodology without a lot of data available about its effectiveness. But it says something that this is a very active research area in 2018. If it were a solved problem I’d not think Monte Carlo distributions would be valuable.