7 ms·

Commoditization of self-driving tech, yes; I don’t think car manufacturers will become (more) redundant, but eventually everybody‘s autonomous driving systems w

by manmal 8y ago

Commoditization of self-driving tech, yes; I don’t think car manufacturers will become (more) redundant, but eventually everybody‘s autonomous driving systems will either be hard to distinguish (like gasoline motor tech), or even completely regulated by legislation. Can legislators really allow that cars drive around with a system that is inferior to a competitor‘s? This will put eg every pedestrian‘s live at risk. I‘m pretty sure self-driving tech will not be a big differentiator, just like airbags - almost every car has them, they are a given.

AnthonyMouse 8y ago
> Can legislators really allow that cars drive around with a system that is inferior to a competitor‘s? This will put eg every pedestrian‘s live at risk. They already do this with everything else. Vehicles like Mercedes and Tesla are significantly safer than some competitors. Legislation sets the floor, not the ceiling. Or at least it shouldn't create a ceiling. And it's also the case that SUVs and other large vehicles pose a greater risk to pedestrians and other motorists than smaller ones, but legislators haven't done anything about that.
- Cyph0n 8y ago
  Couldn’t the floor be a bit higher? I’m also not sure why everyone hasn’t adopted the Toyota model of including basic safety tech in all trims...
  - fma 8y ago
    How long has that been going on? I'm looking at buying a Sienna but needed to buy new because they introduced their Toyota safety sense on all their trims for 2018 only.
    - Cyph0n 8y ago
      It’s a new thing, maybe since 2017? Regardless, I think it’s the right way to do it.
  - AnthonyMouse 8y ago
    > Couldn’t the floor be a bit higher? Sure, but that's what actually happens over time. First airbags are introduced, then we get some evidence that they actually work, more manufacturers introduce them and we get even more evidence, then eventually the law requires them. It's necessary to be deliberative before mandating things because not everything is a good idea, e.g. automatic seatbelts in the 90s.
  - xattt 8y ago
    I’ve been wondering how much of a business decision this was, rather than a moral one. A cost-benefit analysis must have been completed that found the sweet spot for a bulk purchase of the safety cameras and how many more additional customers it would attract to purchase their cars.
- xmzx 8y ago
  > They already do this with everything else. Vehicles like Mercedes and Tesla are significantly safer than some competitors. Legislation sets the floor, not the ceiling. Or at least it shouldn't create a ceiling. I think the difference is those are, for the most part, internal safety features for the car's driver and passengers, whereas self driving effects mostly people not in that automobile. Sure, there are some features in cars that aren't, but for the most part, a driver knows (should know) their vehicle, and someone driving a 1978 station wagon and someone else driving a 2018 Volvo won't make that much of a difference on the roadways. Driving a car with a bad autonomous mode vs. a car with a good autonomous mode could be a significantly bigger difference for pedestrians and other drivers than older and newer cars.
  - shmish111 8y ago
    I'm pretty sure the 78 car is way more likely to kill someone
  - rubber_duck 8y ago
    >Sure, there are some features in cars that aren't, but for the most part, a driver knows (should know) their vehicle, and someone driving a 1978 station wagon and someone else driving a 2018 Volvo won't make that much of a difference on the roadways. Brakes, handling, visibility - better car - better response - safer for others. Also being lighter lowers potential damage impact. Not to mention stuff like sleep at the wheel detection etc.
    - justtopost 8y ago
      Except that cars have mostly been getting heavier since the 80s... And electrics even moreso.
  - NeedMoreTea 8y ago
    2018 will be much heavier, bigger, with poorer visibility thanks to huge crash and rollover resistant A, B and C pillars. It will also have passed the pedestrian impact tests and have enormously better brakes and handling. So even though heavier it'll stop a lot quicker, and do less serious damage to a pedestrian at town speeds. That's quite apart from any safety features like air bags or ABS.
- Amygaz 8y ago
  There seems to be a total lack, from our regulators/politicians about even establishing a floor on self-driving car. That certainly will go well.
- thebruce87m 8y ago
  The only Tesla safety numbers I have seen have come from Tesla. Do you have any independent numbers?
  - AnthonyMouse 8y ago
    https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2018/TESLA/MODEL%2525203/4%252520DR/RWD https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2018/TESLA/MODEL%2525203/4%252...
MBCook 8y ago
Additionally it spreads risk/reward. You’re using the ‘standard’ industry system, not some bespoke thing. So you’re negligent because you’re ‘behind’. You can’t be ‘behind’. You can’t leap way ahead, but what are the chances of any one automaker doing that at this point? Unless you’ve already had a program going for years under very heavy investment it may be too late to catch up let alone lead.
hkmurakami 8y ago
Look at car safety. You have to pass a benchmark test but after that it’s up to the OEM to go as high as they want.
megablast 8y ago
> Can legislators really allow that cars drive around with a system that is inferior to a competitor‘s? This will put eg every pedestrian‘s live at risk. As if anyone actually cares about people outside the car.
- Rinzler89 8y ago
  If you, knock on wood, end up accidentally hitting a pedestrian hen you suddently care A LOT.
- leetcrew 8y ago
  I know the prevailing view on HN is that drivers don't give a shit about pedestrians and cyclists, and I'm willing to believe it's true that drivers are not often penalized for injuring them, but are most drivers really that bad? I'm not a terribly conscientious person, but I'm definitely worried and raise my level of caution any time I see pedestrians standing near the street or when I pass a cyclists. I know that they will be seriously injured if I hit them, and I really don't want that to be my fault. even if it isn't my fault (or if it is, but not in a way that a court will find me responsible), I am quite afraid of having to go through the whole legal process that could ensue.
  - rland 8y ago
    People really don't care. It's not so much a callous -- "I could see this guy die in front of me without batting an eye." It's more that all the stuff you mentioned: injuries, an incident being your fault, court dates, etc. legitimately never enters their head. They do not picture that someone might be on a bicycle in their blind spot until someone is. I think it probably changes when people have children, because they can imagine their child being hit, which helps to make that connection. For most drivers without children, yes really, they do not think of that stuff.
    - leetcrew 8y ago
      i guess it's just my anxiety showing then. probably not a bad thing in this case.
MarkMc 8y ago
Not just commoditization of self-driving tech. Many people will switch from buying cars to hailing self-driving taxis. And nobody really cares about the brand, styling or horsepower of the taxi they take to work. To that degree each manufacturer faces erosion of their competitive advantage.

by manmal 8y ago

AnthonyMouse 8y ago

> Can legislators really allow that cars drive around with a system that is inferior to a competitor‘s? This will put eg every pedestrian‘s live at risk. They already do this with everything else. Vehicles like Mercedes and Tesla are significantly safer than some competitors. Legislation sets the floor, not the ceiling. Or at least it shouldn't create a ceiling. And it's also the case that SUVs and other large vehicles pose a greater risk to pedestrians and other motorists than smaller ones, but legislators haven't done anything about that.

Cyph0n 8y ago
Couldn’t the floor be a bit higher? I’m also not sure why everyone hasn’t adopted the Toyota model of including basic safety tech in all trims...
- fma 8y ago
  How long has that been going on? I'm looking at buying a Sienna but needed to buy new because they introduced their Toyota safety sense on all their trims for 2018 only.
  - Cyph0n 8y ago
    It’s a new thing, maybe since 2017? Regardless, I think it’s the right way to do it.
- AnthonyMouse 8y ago
  > Couldn’t the floor be a bit higher? Sure, but that's what actually happens over time. First airbags are introduced, then we get some evidence that they actually work, more manufacturers introduce them and we get even more evidence, then eventually the law requires them. It's necessary to be deliberative before mandating things because not everything is a good idea, e.g. automatic seatbelts in the 90s.
- xattt 8y ago
  I’ve been wondering how much of a business decision this was, rather than a moral one. A cost-benefit analysis must have been completed that found the sweet spot for a bulk purchase of the safety cameras and how many more additional customers it would attract to purchase their cars.
xmzx 8y ago
> They already do this with everything else. Vehicles like Mercedes and Tesla are significantly safer than some competitors. Legislation sets the floor, not the ceiling. Or at least it shouldn't create a ceiling. I think the difference is those are, for the most part, internal safety features for the car's driver and passengers, whereas self driving effects mostly people not in that automobile. Sure, there are some features in cars that aren't, but for the most part, a driver knows (should know) their vehicle, and someone driving a 1978 station wagon and someone else driving a 2018 Volvo won't make that much of a difference on the roadways. Driving a car with a bad autonomous mode vs. a car with a good autonomous mode could be a significantly bigger difference for pedestrians and other drivers than older and newer cars.
- shmish111 8y ago
  I'm pretty sure the 78 car is way more likely to kill someone
- rubber_duck 8y ago
  >Sure, there are some features in cars that aren't, but for the most part, a driver knows (should know) their vehicle, and someone driving a 1978 station wagon and someone else driving a 2018 Volvo won't make that much of a difference on the roadways. Brakes, handling, visibility - better car - better response - safer for others. Also being lighter lowers potential damage impact. Not to mention stuff like sleep at the wheel detection etc.
  - justtopost 8y ago
    Except that cars have mostly been getting heavier since the 80s... And electrics even moreso.
- NeedMoreTea 8y ago
  2018 will be much heavier, bigger, with poorer visibility thanks to huge crash and rollover resistant A, B and C pillars. It will also have passed the pedestrian impact tests and have enormously better brakes and handling. So even though heavier it'll stop a lot quicker, and do less serious damage to a pedestrian at town speeds. That's quite apart from any safety features like air bags or ABS.
Amygaz 8y ago
There seems to be a total lack, from our regulators/politicians about even establishing a floor on self-driving car. That certainly will go well.
thebruce87m 8y ago
The only Tesla safety numbers I have seen have come from Tesla. Do you have any independent numbers?
- AnthonyMouse 8y ago
  https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2018/TESLA/MODEL%2525203/4%252520DR/RWD https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2018/TESLA/MODEL%2525203/4%252...

MBCook 8y ago

Additionally it spreads risk/reward. You’re using the ‘standard’ industry system, not some bespoke thing. So you’re negligent because you’re ‘behind’. You can’t be ‘behind’. You can’t leap way ahead, but what are the chances of any one automaker doing that at this point? Unless you’ve already had a program going for years under very heavy investment it may be too late to catch up let alone lead.

hkmurakami 8y ago

Look at car safety. You have to pass a benchmark test but after that it’s up to the OEM to go as high as they want.

megablast 8y ago

> Can legislators really allow that cars drive around with a system that is inferior to a competitor‘s? This will put eg every pedestrian‘s live at risk. As if anyone actually cares about people outside the car.

Rinzler89 8y ago
If you, knock on wood, end up accidentally hitting a pedestrian hen you suddently care A LOT.
leetcrew 8y ago
I know the prevailing view on HN is that drivers don't give a shit about pedestrians and cyclists, and I'm willing to believe it's true that drivers are not often penalized for injuring them, but are most drivers really that bad? I'm not a terribly conscientious person, but I'm definitely worried and raise my level of caution any time I see pedestrians standing near the street or when I pass a cyclists. I know that they will be seriously injured if I hit them, and I really don't want that to be my fault. even if it isn't my fault (or if it is, but not in a way that a court will find me responsible), I am quite afraid of having to go through the whole legal process that could ensue.
- rland 8y ago
  People really don't care. It's not so much a callous -- "I could see this guy die in front of me without batting an eye." It's more that all the stuff you mentioned: injuries, an incident being your fault, court dates, etc. legitimately never enters their head. They do not picture that someone might be on a bicycle in their blind spot until someone is. I think it probably changes when people have children, because they can imagine their child being hit, which helps to make that connection. For most drivers without children, yes really, they do not think of that stuff.
  - leetcrew 8y ago
    i guess it's just my anxiety showing then. probably not a bad thing in this case.

MarkMc 8y ago

Not just commoditization of self-driving tech. Many people will switch from buying cars to hailing self-driving taxis. And nobody really cares about the brand, styling or horsepower of the taxi they take to work. To that degree each manufacturer faces erosion of their competitive advantage.