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If Musk never happened rockets would still be expendable, the US would still lack a Shuttle replacement, and EVs would be rare or nonexistent. We would still be

by api 8y ago

If Musk never happened rockets would still be expendable, the US would still lack a Shuttle replacement, and EVs would be rare or nonexistent. We would still be talking about how personal mobility is doomed when oil is depleted, if not all of modern civilization. Prove me wrong. Who else was doing this stuff before SpaceX and Tesla? On space launch you had nothing serious except the SLS which is 70s tech. On EVs you had a few boutique and niche vehicles but nothing pushing to break into any mass market. I doubt conventional car companies would ever have done it without a law to force them or monster incentives since most of that industry is full of ICE heads who hate EVs. They are now, but that's because of Tesla. I'm worried that if Tesla fails all these other EV projects will be scaled back since the ICE and oil crowd will leap on it to push an EVs have failed narrative. Elon seems to have fucked up with this one, but I dont think it diminishes what he has accomplished. Normally the only way to smash a mediocre Nash equilibrium is with the power of government-- either big government spending or legislation (regulation, anti trust, etc). It's normally the only hammer big enough. I have a lot of respect for anyone in the private sector who is able to pull it off. Musk and the teams he assembled broke two. That's just insane. Hell maybe it is literally insane. Maybe he's nuts.

hef19898 8y ago
A agree wizh you on the Tesla part, there Musk really forced very positive development. One could argue of course if that development wouldn't have taken place as well without Tesla. But even then it is clear that Musk / Tesla moved things along a lot faster. SpaceX is an incredible achievement. The reusable rockets are a point I really need to dig deeper into, especially the financial aspects of it. Because there a pretty convincing argument is that peivate SpaceX launches are subsidized by government launches. I really have to go hunting for some numbers there more I think about it. And even then, building competitive rockets, not just one, in a private endevour is incredible. I'm just wondering if Musk is not getting to much credit and hype. Not that he would need it, even the smallest common ground regarding Musk's achievements is more than enough for a lifetime. Unless he throwing all of it away over some paranoid obsession about short sellers and a loose Twitter finger...
- api 8y ago
  I think Musk sometimes does get too much credit, but the opposite -- that he deserves none and is a fraud -- is equally ridiculous. Gwynne Shotwell deserves a lot of credit for leading SpaceX in its day-to-day operations. Without her I doubt it would be working as well. Everyone else on these teams also deserves a great deal of credit. They are teams, of course. On SpaceX being government funded -- yes, that's true to an extent, though they have made a lot of money off private satellite launches too. The fact is that the entire aerospace industry has been deeply embedded with the military and other government agencies since its inception. It's a very heavily subsidized and regulated industry. But team building and capital raising is a skill, and Musk seems good at it -- at least at the beginning. He's great at getting things off the ground (pun intended?) and breaking through barriers of technological learned helplessness. I do get the sense though that he's less of an effective leader as things get more established. Tesla's problems are too boring for him at this point.
dingaling 8y ago
> but nothing pushing to break into any mass market. Nissan Leaf 2010 Tesla Model S 2012 Renault Zoe 2013
- King-Aaron 8y ago
  > Tesla Roadster 2008
  - hef19898 8y ago
    Nissan Altran EV, sold in California and fleet-tested, 1998. Nissan Garbage Collecting Truck, mainly sold to the Yokohama city government, 1988. Just saying. https://www.nissan-global.com/EN/ZEROEMISSION/HISTORY/ https://www.nissan-global.com/EN/ZEROEMISSION/HISTORY/
    - api 8y ago
      Those were "compliance cars," not attempts to seriously invade the mass market with an EV.
    - King-Aaron 8y ago
      Just to continue this thread, because it's interesting... Walter C. Bersey's Hummingbird - 1897
yzh 8y ago
Well, I actually agree with you. But John Carmack's armadillo aerospace was founded 2 years before SpaceX.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]

by api 8y ago

hef19898 8y ago

A agree wizh you on the Tesla part, there Musk really forced very positive development. One could argue of course if that development wouldn't have taken place as well without Tesla. But even then it is clear that Musk / Tesla moved things along a lot faster. SpaceX is an incredible achievement. The reusable rockets are a point I really need to dig deeper into, especially the financial aspects of it. Because there a pretty convincing argument is that peivate SpaceX launches are subsidized by government launches. I really have to go hunting for some numbers there more I think about it. And even then, building competitive rockets, not just one, in a private endevour is incredible. I'm just wondering if Musk is not getting to much credit and hype. Not that he would need it, even the smallest common ground regarding Musk's achievements is more than enough for a lifetime. Unless he throwing all of it away over some paranoid obsession about short sellers and a loose Twitter finger...

api 8y ago
I think Musk sometimes does get too much credit, but the opposite -- that he deserves none and is a fraud -- is equally ridiculous. Gwynne Shotwell deserves a lot of credit for leading SpaceX in its day-to-day operations. Without her I doubt it would be working as well. Everyone else on these teams also deserves a great deal of credit. They are teams, of course. On SpaceX being government funded -- yes, that's true to an extent, though they have made a lot of money off private satellite launches too. The fact is that the entire aerospace industry has been deeply embedded with the military and other government agencies since its inception. It's a very heavily subsidized and regulated industry. But team building and capital raising is a skill, and Musk seems good at it -- at least at the beginning. He's great at getting things off the ground (pun intended?) and breaking through barriers of technological learned helplessness. I do get the sense though that he's less of an effective leader as things get more established. Tesla's problems are too boring for him at this point.

dingaling 8y ago

> but nothing pushing to break into any mass market. Nissan Leaf 2010 Tesla Model S 2012 Renault Zoe 2013

King-Aaron 8y ago
> Tesla Roadster 2008
- hef19898 8y ago
  Nissan Altran EV, sold in California and fleet-tested, 1998. Nissan Garbage Collecting Truck, mainly sold to the Yokohama city government, 1988. Just saying. https://www.nissan-global.com/EN/ZEROEMISSION/HISTORY/ https://www.nissan-global.com/EN/ZEROEMISSION/HISTORY/
  - api 8y ago
    Those were "compliance cars," not attempts to seriously invade the mass market with an EV.
  - King-Aaron 8y ago
    Just to continue this thread, because it's interesting... Walter C. Bersey's Hummingbird - 1897

yzh 8y ago

Well, I actually agree with you. But John Carmack's armadillo aerospace was founded 2 years before SpaceX.

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]