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If Elon Musk is removed as CEO at Tesla, Tesla is over. I find it curious that an innovative American company pushing to help our carbon problem by going elect
by drawkbox 8y ago
If Elon Musk is removed as CEO at Tesla, Tesla is over.
I find it curious that an innovative American company pushing to help our carbon problem by going electric is so lambasted, shorted, constantly under attack. It cannot be argued that Tesla pushed forward both electric cars and self-driving vehicles as a major force (original self-driving push was a DoD X-Prize)
Personally I like when American companies succeed and push innovation forward. I would have zero hope of that happening if they bring in some generic C level executive like back in the day at Apple when they ousted Steve Jobs and brought in John Sculley.
- arawde 8y agoIt's not shorted because of its mission, its shorted because of the negative cash flow. Musks' public persona doesn't exactly give off the aura of a man who has his companies operating expenses and profitability under control.
- toomuchtodo 8y agoSo, I get it. This is how capitalism is supposed to work. But I don't think anyone is going to care about the wealth of these short sellers when the climate is irreversibly changed. China is smart. They don't fuck around with tax incentives and other silly market manipulators. They use central policy planning to drive forward renewables and battery electric vehicles at nation state scale, and it's a damn shame the United States and other first world countries don't have the same fortitude; yet, our markets will rail against someone who has bet his personal fortune to accomplish these goals.
- ivraatiems 8y agoIn my opinion: We (as a society and a country) need Tesla to succeed. Tesla can't succeed with Elon Musk as CEO at this point. So Elon should be removed.
- toomuchtodo 8y agoOwning about 12k shares of TSLA, having followed the company closely since inception (when it was ran by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning), I can't see Tesla succeeding without Musk. It'll end up acquired, or as a boutique manufacturer like Ferrari. Tesla's value is Musk's determination. Still, he needs to choose his actions more wisely, clearly.
- kgwgk 8y ago> It'll end up acquired, Maybe. The main question is whether it will happen before or after bankruptcy (chapter 11 reorganization).
- spookthesunset 8y ago> Owning about 12k shares of TSLA If only all of the TSLA fanboys posted how much money they have on the line. After reading this, all the rest of your comments suddenly make sense. Pro Tip: Don't get emotional over your investments or you are gonna lose the ability to think rationally and get burned.
- toomuchtodo 8y agoI'm financially independent without my Tesla holdings. If it all goes to zero, I'm prepared for that. If being a fanboy of a company working towards positive change in the world (which is so very often rare, unfortunately) is wrong, I don't want to be right. Everyone finds meaning in different ways. This is my small contribution.
- avar 8y agoWithout short sellers or another market mechanism to call bullshit on over-inflated and over-hyped investments, capital will be badly allocated. You're imagining some future where because of shorts we don't put enough money into TSLA and never have electric cars. That's not how this works. With shorts (if the short sellers are right) TSLA is full of it, and capital is much better allocated at BMW, Toyota, or some other car startup, and the sooner everyone finds that out and moves their money over or stops inflating TSLA the better.
- toomuchtodo 8y ago> Without short sellers or another market mechanism to call bullshit on over-inflated and over-hyped investments, capital will be badly allocated. Capital allocates to what is best for the markets, not what is best for the world. I can't breath shareholder returns. We can't wait for BMW and Toyota to cannibalize their internal combustion product lines with EVs because it's not financially convenient for them (runaway climate change, all that jazz [1]). Traditional manufacturers have no incentive to disrupt the status quo and instead, continue to churn out internal combustion vehicles. “Yes, the planet got destroyed. But for a beautiful moment in time we created a lot of value for shareholders.” [2] [1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/26/global-warming-climate-change-targets-un-report https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/26/global-w... ("World 'nowhere near on track' to avoid warming beyond 1.5C target") [2] https://www.newyorker.com/cartoon/a16995 https://www.newyorker.com/cartoon/a16995
- dragontamer 8y agoShort-sellers didn't cause Elon Musk to tweet fraudulently, putting himself and his company into legal jeopardy with the SEC. Frankly, Q3 2018 was shaping up to be a big moment where M3 cars were mass produced and selling well. If Mr. Musk just shut up for the past 6 months and never tweeted anything, then Tesla would be in a far stronger position. Today: Musk has to deal with the pedophile slander lawsuit, the SEC investigation, and now the DoJ investigation. The shorts did NONE of this, it was all Mr. Musk's mistake. If Mr. Musk sat tight, released the (what seem to be) good Q3 2018 numbers, then the shorts would have been busted naturally. That's how you "beat the shorts". Have a strong quarter, have a strong year, and push the stock price up. Short sellers lose money every time the stock rises. ------------- And I'm sure people out there will complain about the 2-billion convertible loan due 2019, and how short-sellers are destroying the $360 price point. Guess what? The CEO's job is to secure funding. It was Mr. Musk who signed Tesla to that deal. If you think the loan was idiotic, then it was Mr. Musk's fault for signing the loan back in 2014. That's Musk's decision however. He's had 5 years to make a profit on a 5-year loan with 0.25% coupon (!!!) and that's his own darn fault for not keeping track of it and turning a profit in time. (Frankly: 0.25% loan for 5-years are stupendous terms. I do think it was good way to raise money) Details on the loan due March 2019: http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?symbol=TSLA4103350&ticker=C607199 http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.j... The terms of this loan are: $360 call option or cash back on March 2019. Which means bondholders can buy the stock at $360 (no matter what price TSLA is at), OR can demand cash back instead. Given the current price of TSLA, it seems like the bondholders will ask for Cash. But Musk clearly though, way back in 2014 when he signed this deal, that he would raise the stock price to $360 to avoid paying back the loan. OR he was fine with a 0.25% coupon (!!) on a 5-year rate. Anyone who follows finances knows that this bond was an incredible deal to the advantage of Tesla, and no one should be touting this loan as a disadvantage.
- drawkbox 8y agoObviously car companies are hard to run. Though internet companies aren't the best at cash flow management either, it is more about getting the market / customers then the profit. I think innovation is excusable for revenue/profits for some time. Starting an electric car ONLY car company is even harder than having it as part of an existing car company like Mercedes is doing well with. The shorts are mainly trying to kill Tesla and coming from the oil, gas, other auto companies most of all. Lots of games are played with car companies (see VW short squeeze a historically big one) because they can't react as fast as it is hard work. I think the shorts have been not just focused on profitability but to drive out the competitive threat, the shorts have also been attacking Elon Musk non-stop.
- computerex 8y agoDo you have any evidence for the claims you are making? Elon Musk has done plenty on his own to be attacked.
- compcoffee 8y ago>The shorts are mainly trying to kill Tesla and coming from the oil, gas, other auto companies most of all. What about when Elon was spreading rumours that the Saudi's wanted to take Tesla private?
- rleigh 8y agoI imagine they are hard to run. But they don't require "genius" to run, they require people skilled in process management, supply chain operations, assembly automation and the rest. The stuff all the other big car manufacturers have been doing for decades. All stuff that Musk doesn't have a background in. What makes Tesla unique in this respect, and Musk so essential to the operations? I'd argue nothing at all, other than his image. Hire some experts from the other companies, people with a few decades of experience, and let them turn it around. Maybe start with why you're hand-assembling and gluing things together in tents, rather than using the high efficiency production lines everyone else is using.
- drawkbox 8y ago
- throwaway5752 8y ago"I find it curious that an innovative American company pushing to help our carbon problem by going electric is so lambasted, shorted, constantly under attack" I'm not sure if you're being tongue in cheek, but that is precisely why he's being attacked.
- amyjess 8y agoMusk brought this on himself. All he had to do was not make false financial statements on Twitter. For that matter, he'd be better served if he didn't libelously call people pedophiles, try to start a war with the media, subject his factory workers to unsafe working conditions, and engage in union busting. Ultimately, these are all going to bite him in the ass, and he will have brought it all on himself.
- neaden 8y agoWhy? Honestly, what does Musk bring right now? If Tesla's product is good, if it's technology is good why shouldn't they succeed without Musk providing an inconvenient distraction.
- vkou 8y agoThe thing is, the product is not good, yet. They've yet to ship a $35,000 car, they've yet to hit their production goals, they've yet to justify their sky-high valuation, and their current build quality is below what one would expect for a $50,000 car. This doesn't mean that failing to fix those problems will kill Tesla. It may, however, cause a large drop in stock price, massive losses for shareholders at large, and E.M. in particular, restructuring of their debt, and possibly acquisition for pennies on the dollar by another auto manufacturer.
- gsnedders 8y agoThat sounds like what they need is someone like Tim Cook: someone with a background in operations management. Like, when I step back and look at Tesla's current challenges, they have two big ones: delivered products to meet demand and improving their driver assistance/autonomous driving offerings.
- toomuchtodo 8y agoWhich is why Jerome Guillen was promoted to President of Automotive [+] weeks ago. "Jerome Guillen has been promoted to President, Automotive, reporting directly to me. In his new role, Jerome will oversee all automotive operations and program management, as well as coordinate our extensive automotive supply chain. Jerome has made major contributions and acquired deep knowledge of Tesla’s operations over the past eight years at our company, from being the first Model S Program Manager to managing all vehicle programs, then all vehicle engineering and worldwide sales & service. Recently, Jerome played a critical role in ramping Model 3 production, leading what almost all thought was impossible: creation of an entire high-volume General Assembly line for Model 3 in a matter of weeks. Before coming to Tesla, Jerome was responsible for creating and running the most successful semi truck program in history at Daimler’s Freightliner division." [+] https://www.tesla.com/blog/company-update https://www.tesla.com/blog/company-update
- ryandrake 8y agoWhat’s wrong with someone else stepping in to run things? Why is E.M. the one person out of 7 billion on Earth who can possibly run the company? People said the same thing about Jobs, but here Apple is, still printing money.
- kitsunesoba 8y agoI think the primary fear is that he’d be replaced with a visionless drone and the company would cease to push any kind of bar, sliding into the same sort of profitable stagnancy found at every other American carmaker. The impact would be reduced now that the big guys are finally starting to take full electric seriously, but the impact would still be there. Without Tesla’s constant pressure I could see full BEV adoption being delayed by 5 years or more.
- adventured 8y agoThere's already a solution for what you're describing. She's running SpaceX. They're already doing it there. You make Musk the product lead or equivalent, chief visionary. The CEO is a specialist focused on operations, manufacturing. You don't need the CEO to be the chief visionary so long as you have Musk in the company. There's no good reason he needs to be overseeing every detail of manufacturing, there are people far better at that than he is.
- jsight 8y agoI get that argument, but I'm pretty sure that a stagnant Tesla still ships the Semi, Model Y, the new Pickup Truck, that little something else that keeps getting whispered about, and maybe even the Roadster. Maybe the timeframes for each elongate by a few years, but there is still a pretty clear pathway to success. And the cool thing? Elon Musk could join a competitor, grow them over 6 years, and leverage their sales to regain control of the business. That last bit is mostly joking, but good on you if you get history that it references.
- aquadrop 8y agoApple is a bad example, since it literally almost failed after they ousted Jobs... And yeah, Musk is one of very few who created major changes in several industries, and 7 billion people didn't. Removing Musk now, when Tesla is on a brink of becoming profitable can create an avalanche of bad things that will destroy it. I agree though, that tweet was very unfortunate, really doesn't seem like clever thing to do if you can't back it up.
- ivraatiems 8y agoI don't agree. I don't believe in the "key man" clause. Apple wasn't over when Jobs passed. Microsoft wasn't over when Gates left. But supposing I did agree - > I find it curious that an innovative American company pushing to help our carbon problem by going electric is so lambasted, shorted, constantly under attack. It cannot be argued that Tesla pushed forward both electric cars and self-driving vehicles as a major force (original self-driving push was a DoD X-Prize) It can't be argued. But their CEO is a self-aggrandizing buffoon who is hurting himself and the company, and now, because the board couldn't or wouldn't stop him, the SEC will. I don't like it, either. I really honestly want Tesla to succeed. Elon is preventing them from doing that now. If there's any hope for them to survive, in my opinion, it is without him. Even if that's riskier. Edit: Accidentally killed Bill Gates :(. Sorry Bill!
- dpcx 8y agoFor the record, Gates isn't dead. He just isn't the CEO of Microsoft any longer.
- ivraatiems 8y agoWhoops! Fixed that. My apologies to Bill. I knew that, I swear.
- SatvikBeri 8y ago> I don't agree. I don't believe in the "key man" clause. Apple wasn't over when Jobs passed. Microsoft wasn't over when Gates died. I think most people believe Ballmer did a terrible job as CEO – Microsoft's stock was basically flat for the 12 years after Gates left, and only really started to climb again after Nadella took over. That seems to be some evidence for key men.
- lorenzorhoades 8y ago>Microsoft wasn't over when Gates died? When did Gates die? On a more serious note, they left after significant pass over and forsight that they were stepping down. They were both profitable, and they were not forced to step down. When Steve Jobs left the first time he was forced to, Apple almost went out of business.
- MisterTea 8y ago> I find it curious that an innovative American company pushing to help our carbon problem by going electric is so lambasted, shorted, constantly under attack. You're not the only one who smells something funny.
- ckastner 8y ago> If Elon Musk is removed as CEO at Tesla, Tesla is over. What if Tesla's progress wasn't because of Musk, but in spite of Musk? He's chased away dozens of key people and his intolerance for criticism is well known. Apart from attracting cash, do you really think his contribution to the operation was that significant? > I find it curious that an innovative American company pushing to help our carbon problem by going electric is so lambasted, shorted, constantly under attack. Working towards a worthwhile cause does not mean nobody can call you out on bullshit. And he bullshits a lot.
- mtgx 8y ago> What if Tesla's progress want because of Musk, but in spite of Musk No way that's true. No way. If you believe that then you must also believe SpaceX and him leading the company to create re-usable rockets was also just a fluke. So Musk somehow just stumbled upon a highly successful, innovative, and cost-effective private rocket company, while also stumbling upon the first new American company to survive (for now, and as long as it has) in the car market in 100 years and also one that happens to build EVs from scratch. Musk must have one hell of a luck to keep stumbling upon these sort of companies that "could have succeeded even without him."
- ckastner 8y agoSpaceX is a genuine astounding success, no doubt about it. My opinion is that this success has clouded his judgment. "Everybody told me SpaceX can't work, and I made it work. Everybody is telling me $THING at Tesla can't work, therefore I know I'll make it work, and everybody else must be wrong". SpaceX was a novel endeavor. Building a car production plant is not.
- gamblor956 8y agoElon Musk doesn't run the day-to-day at SpaceX. That's been someone else, Gwynne Shotwell, for several years, and everyone credits her with getting SpaceX on track and meeting its contractual deadlines--which was something it wasn't managing when Musk was in charge.
- lafar6502 8y agoyep they should not be bothered with law or taxes. This lambasting is reserved for the less great
- scythe 8y agoI think that might have been true before July. As of now, it looks very likely that Tesla can produce the Model 3 at scale. The current drought in production appears to be due to a shortage: https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/force-manure-tesla-way-short-of-m3-goals-silicon-carbide-shortage-explanation-C-dmo-YZxkiD25lPsUIh1w/ https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/force-manure-tesla-... That's bad news for Tesla's fiscal situation, but a shortage of semiconductor wafers isn't indicative of some major flaw in the actual manufacturing process. Also, Tesla currently dominates the market for these wafers: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-infineon-technol-results-idUSKBN1AH4EY https://www.reuters.com/article/us-infineon-technol-results-... https://semiengineering.com/sic-chip-demand-surges/ https://semiengineering.com/sic-chip-demand-surges/ which suggests that any potential competitors will face the same limitations, because SiC inverters dramatically improve the performance of electric motors: https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1330491 https://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1330491 The global supply chain has to adapt to high demand for high-powered electric motors. Anyway, once Tesla has successfully produced and sold a mass-market car, the need for a mythical figure at the top fades away. Since it looks like they're close to doing that, they're also close to doing away with Elon.
- rayiner 8y ago> It cannot be argued that Tesla pushed forward both electric cars and self-driving vehicles as a major force (original self-driving push was a DoD X-Prize Sure it can. Tesla has done basically nothing for self-driving cars, it's technology is glorified lane-keeping. As to electric cars, the Model S is the third best-selling electric car ever, after the Nissan Leaf and the Chevy Volt. Both of those cars were introduced before the Model S. Electric cars are not yet mainstream, but when the become mainstream, they're going to look a lot more like a Chevy Volt than a Model S or Model 3. (The sport-sedan market Tesla is targeting is a niche, even if a very lucrative one. What people really want is a $25,000-35,000 small cross-over SUV or pickup truck.)
- beamatronic 8y agoAn electric 4WD minivan would be nice too.
- colordrops 8y agoYou are missing a few facts that completely oppose the point of your comment: the model S is not Tesla's first electric - that would be the Roadster, which was release a couple years before the other cars you mention. Chevy Volt is not full electric and can't get very far on pure electric. And the Nissan Leaf is a glorified golf cart that doesn't surpass 100 miles on a charge. The frank truth is that both the better design and range of Tesla vehicles set the stage for electric cars to be adopted by everyone rather than just special interest groups. You can be assured that every manufacturer in the world, such as BMW, is building up electric manufacturing capability due to the success of Tesla, and not Nissan.
- rayiner 8y agoThe Volt was also not GM’s first EV. Both the Roadster and GM’s EV 1 were niche products. You can call the Leaf a golf cart, but it’s sold more vehicles than the Model S. Yes the Model S has more performance, but it’s also a vastly more expensive car. As to other manufacturers, they were “building up electric manufacturing capability” before Tesla. Toyota was selling thr first RAV 4 EV before Tesla was even founded. Tesla didn’t have the first EV. It may have the best EV now, but that hardly says anything—it’s much easier to make a $50-100,000 EV than on at a mainstream price point. The remaining question is who is on track to create products in the form factors people care about (not sports sedans) at prices they can afford? At this rate, that’s not Tesla either.
- bduerst 8y agoIf Elon Musk is the reason Tesla goes bankrupt, does it matter?
- garyclarke27 8y agoAgreed this would be a tradgedy, if Tesla and it’s truly ground breaking innovation, is killed off, by a boring SEC parasitic bureaucrats, anally following rules, for rules sake. Yes the SEC has some purpose, to protect investors from outright fraud, they don’t need protection from taking late night impetuous tweets from notoriously emotional Musk too seriously. Tesla is not a fly by night sham, it is a serious long term business, and with inherent risks involved. Musk is obviously a genius and of course eccentric, he is still indespensible to Tesla. Reminds me of when the UK government destroyed their own genius of the 20th century - Alan Turing - please don’t repat the same tragic mistake.