16 ms·

Is Microsoft in trouble?

115 points by mjfern 16y ago

jaspero 16y ago
Microsoft in the recent decade, has tried to indulge itself on different domains of IT. Obviously, it has failed on all of them, as stated by the author of this article. IMO, on contrary to the author, MS should stick to desktop/laptop Operating Systems. Desktop usage might have decreased but laptop is not going anywhere. There is so much market untapped in the world, I can't see the end of desktop OS. I don't see not using my laptop fo at least a decade. And yes, I don't want to use iOS or Android on my laptop. I like the old school Linux, Windows or OSX. Microsoft is not in trouble until they make products like Windows 7.
- endtime 16y ago
  >Microsoft in the recent decade, has tried to indulge itself on different domains of IT. Obviously, it has failed on all of them, I thought Sharepoint and SQL Server were huge hits - no?
  - kenjackson 16y ago
    They are. Sharepoint in particular has been a surprise breakout hit. But even SQL Server has done very well and their recent BI push has been a pretty incredible success. Their online services, via BPOS, have also done very well. The issue is that in more consumer targeted areas MS is in trouble. But in the enterprise they're probably stronger now than in any time in recent memory.
    - rbanffy 16y ago
      > Sharepoint in particular has been a surprise breakout hit. Indeed. Tech historians will scratch their heads about that for generations. It's such a horrid product to use that one can only wonder how bad its competition is.
      - kenjackson 16y ago
        We disagree about a lot, but this is one thing that I do agree with. On both counts... Sharepoint doesn't seem to be very good software. But the competition is even worse. If some bright YC company that gets enterprise could come and do stellar document management, they'd easily have a $100M company. With potential for a $1B+ company.
        rbanffy 16y ago
        I think it's only the perceived competition that's worse. I have deployed and helped deploy a great deal of intranets and websites based on Plone (I worked with "bare" Zope before) and it's delightful to use, manage, develop for and operate. True it doesn't have a billion+ dollar company behind it like Sharepoint, Documentum, Oracle's whatever-it's-called, but I think it's a feature rather than a bug. > If some bright YC company (...) As soon as this founder visa thing gets sorted out, I'm in.
        kenjackson 16y ago
        Plone 3 was horrible, but I've heard better things about Plone 4. Post when you get started on it. I have a list of features that you'll need to get in the door of most enterprises, and a list of new features that will get you $10M in licenses your first year, virtually guaranteed.
        rbanffy 16y ago
        While I agree Plone 3 was not as simple and elegant as I would like it to be, it's much better than most "corporate" CMSs. For the developer, the learning curve is steep, specially for those unwilling to unlearn bad habits, but for end users, it's easy to use and fairly complete. What problems did you experience with it? I may be able to help.
  - jaspero 16y ago
    I am sorry if I was not clear enough, but my interpretation of other domains was music players, tablets,etc. I agree Sharepoint and SQL Server are huge hits and they are doing good in corporate applications.
    - hammerdr 16y ago
      So, what you're saying is that Microsoft has failed in all domains of IT where MS has failed?
theprodigy 16y ago
Microsoft is not in trouble yet. They still make huge amounts of cash so they can keep trying to gain share in these "disruptive" markets. Though they have failed time and again they have the money to keep trying and they just need to be successful once and that cash and brand can solidify their postion.
InclinedPlane 16y ago
Yes. They've been in trouble for years. There are several key points in the growth (or lack thereof) of a company. There is the initial inflection point where the rate of growth is positive (the company begins growing at a faster than linear pace). There is the inflection point where the rate of growth becomes negative (the company may still be growing, but slower and slower). Then there is the point where the effects of that 2nd inflection point become readily apparent, the peak, when growth stops and then begins to reverse. Then there is the point where the company has shrunk to a shell of what it once was. MS has passed that 2nd inflection point, but the peak and the fall are still ahead of them. With the amount of marketshare, locked in business, and cash-on-hand they have they'll be a long time falling but the writing is on the wall, unless something changes.
deleted 16y ago
[deleted]
potatolicious 16y ago
> "In video game consoles, the Xbox 360 is trailing far behind the Nintendo Wii in market share, despite the fact that the Wii is using older generation technology (VGChartz, 2010)." I was with them until here. The Xbox 360 has claimed a gigantic share of the market starting from nothing just a few short years ago. Compared to Nintendo, whose sales of the Wii have slowed to a relative crawl, and whose mobile gaming market is being relentlessly gutted by smartphones. The Xbox is also enjoying an attach rate that is the envy of the industry (simplified: number of games bought per console), as well as being the only one able to get away with charging for online services. They're also about to launch a device that (having tried it myself) makes the Wii's #1 selling point an also-ran. If anything, the Xbox is stronger than ever before, and one of the few examples of markets where MS is doing just about everything right. I'm convinced that J Allard's departure was a gigantic blow to Microsoft; in fact, IMHO the secret to MS's success in the consumer products space lies in the Xbox team.
- mjfern 16y ago
  Good points, but let me offer a few counterpoints: - All three consoles started from nothing just a few short years ago, and in fact the XBox 360 had a year head start on the PS3 and the Wii (launching at the end of 2005 versus end of 2006 for the PS3 and Wii.) - According to VG Chartz, the Wii has sold 8.97 million consoles from Jan-Oct 2010, while the Xbox 360 has sold 6.8 million and the PS3 has sold 7.1 million. Yes, XBox 360 sales faired much better over the summer, but we will have to wait and see if this indicates a sustainable trend or a blip. - Yes, Xbox 360 is doing well from the standpoint of attach rates, with an 8.9 versus around a 7ish for the Wii. It appears the PS3 has been gaining significant ground lately with its attach rate. - In the fiscal year 2010, Microsoft's Entertainment and Devices Division (which includes the Xbox 360) generated $8.5 billion in revenues and just $679 million in operating income. Considering Microsoft's consolidated operating income in 2010 was $24 billion, this $679 million represents only about 3% of Microsoft's profits. - Ultimately, the Xbox 360, the PS3, and the Wii may be irrelevant given the emergence of connected televisions, thin devices, and cloud-based gaming.
  - bad_user 16y ago
moondowner 16y ago
If you put it this way, yes they are in trouble. But the thing is.. they are in trouble for some years, and they still make awesome revenue. Turns out it's not only about the bleeding edge technology, it's about keeping the current user group, about marketing, lobbying, etc...
kokor 16y ago
"Are iSheeps posting in HN?"
jp 16y ago
So Microsoft is failing because Apple, Google and Nintendo is performing better in seperate markets ? What about the Nintendo Office Suite, the Apple SQL Server or the Google Zune ?
- ratsbane 16y ago
  The Apple SQL Server is MySQL or Postgres. The Google Zune is Android. Lots of people still pay the premium price for Microsoft Office but they don't need to. I haven't used it in years. Instead I use Google Docs and OpenOffice.
  - aphexairlines 16y ago
    How is this an argument? You personally don't use a product, ergo it's dying?
    - ratsbane 16y ago
      That clearly wasn't my point. http://blog.rescuetime.com/2010/06/17/google-is-eating-microsofts-lunch-one-tasty-bite-at-a-time/ http://blog.rescuetime.com/2010/06/17/google-is-eating-micro...
      - recoiledsnake 16y ago
        Those numbers look highly improbable, especially coming from such a small subset. This article shows the number of Office online users in just the first 100 days after launch as 20 million, compared to 25 million for Google Apps. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/microsoftpri0/2013086938_microsoftofficewebappssays20millionhaveusedit.html http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/microsoftpri0/20130869...
        Matt_Cutts 16y ago
        Besides those 20M, MSFT recently announced 30 million active Windows Live Spaces users: http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/article/Microsoft-Windows-Live-Spaces-already-dead-WordPresscom-will-only-get-1-of-30M-users/1285781027 http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/article/Microsoft-Windows-...
aresant 16y ago
What? a) XBOX usage destroys Wii in usage, games purchased, and subscription fees all of which are better indicators of the platform' success than hardware units sold which are traditionally a loss leader. And oh yah, XBOX is wildy profitable. Meanwhile Wii sales are down 45% since last September! b) They are JUST launching their mobile platform which has gotten fair to begrundgingly good reviews and is opening in 30 markets supported by HTC, DELL, LG, AT&T, Verizon, etc. You can expect MSFT to be AT WORST the #3 player in an insanely huge and growing market. c) BING just signed an innovative deal with Facebook, Google's copying features from them, and they're gaining traction while Google has been stagnant and slightly down year to date. And that's ignoring that Windows 7 is on a tear, and a great product to boot. 2010 has been a huge year for MSFT, if they manage to keep executing at this level they are going to win a couple of these markets. Microsoft plays loooonnnnng ball and they've got tens of billions in the bank, I certainly wouldn't say they're in trouble. DATA: http://www.crunchgear.com/2010/10/15/uh-oh-september-wii-sales-down-45-from-last-year/ http://www.crunchgear.com/2010/10/15/uh-oh-september-wii-sal... http://www.gamespot.com/xbox360/action/halo3untitledodstgame/news.html?sid=6237794 http://www.gamespot.com/xbox360/action/halo3untitledodstgame... http://www.engadget.com/2010/10/11/microsoft-announces-ten-windows-phone-7-handsets-for-30-countrie/ http://www.engadget.com/2010/10/11/microsoft-announces-ten-w... http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-total-cash-and-st-investments-of-tech-companies-2010-2 http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-total-cash-a... http://siteanalytics.compete.com/bing.com/ http://siteanalytics.compete.com/bing.com/ http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2010/10/comScore_Releases_September_2010_U.S._Search_Engine_Rankings http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2010/10/... http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2010/6/comScore_Releases_May_2010_U.S._Search_Engine_Rankings http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2010/6/c...
- latch 16y ago
  What?! Xbox is wildly profitable? xbox (original + 360) has lost MS tens of billions of dollars in its history (not an exaggeration). The fact that its just now (the last 2 quarters, an no more) pulling in profits in the hundreds of millions means that they'll break even in 5-10 years. If you gave me $10, and I gave you back $0.50, would you consider it a "wildly profitable" venture for yourself?
kj12345 16y ago
The biggest threat to Microsoft is their lack of a clear vision and message about where Office is going. I guess there's some strange service at officelive.com where I can maybe store, maybe edit documents online, but possibly I need a license for Office to do so, and I still get the impression that its meant to be supplementary to the desktop offering. The lack of an actual full-on web-based product - whether Silverlight or HTML - seems like a huge failure on their part. They need to create something real here and then market it in a clear and direct way.
sriramk 16y ago
As someone who works on Windows Azure, this got under my skin a bit :). In particular, I thought this was slightly lazy writing (W.r.t Azure) "I suspect it’s not performing well" and "Put simply, it’s hard to imagine that Microsoft is aggressively developing or marketing Azure, since cloud computing offerings directly threaten Microsoft’s revenues and profitability in the PC market, especially its Windows and Office products. " From Ballmer mentioning "we're all in" in pretty much every speech he has done recently all the way to Azure being all over the financial analyst meeting [1][2], I sometimes think there's not a day that goes by when I don't hear about Azure in some way from MSFT :) [1] http://kara.allthingsd.com/20100729/liveblogging-microsofts-financial-analyst-meeting-its-a-beautiful-day/ http://kara.allthingsd.com/20100729/liveblogging-microsofts-... [2] http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Cloud-Computing/Microsoft-Pushes-Cloud-at-Financial-Analyst-Meeting-675840/ http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Cloud-Computing/Microsoft-Pushes-Cl...
- mjfern 16y ago
  Sorry, that wasn't my attention. I tried to research Azure online, looking for hard numbers on its performance in the cloud computing market (e.g., # of companies using Azure, adoption rates, etc.), but I was unable to find any concrete data. In fact, I struggled to even find a thorough review of Azure. Can you please point me to some data and/or reviews so I can incorporate this information properly into any future posts? Thanks!
  - sriramk 16y ago
    Some quick links - Back in June, we announced 10K paying customers (6 months post launch)[1]. If you're looking for some 'big names', eBay, Dell, Fujitsu and HP are going to be using the Azure Appliance [2]. This is of course apart from internal teams like the Bing Twitter stuff. There's a neat Pivot visualization of case studies and partners here [3] - Review - I'm not sure what you're looking for. Searching for 'Windows Azure review' brings up a lot of hits. I've written a book on it and so have others. There are tons of blogs dedicated to it (azurejournal.com for example). What exactly are you looking for? My intent with this isn't to sound like some marketing droid.:) [1] http://www.zdnet.com/blog/microsoft/microsoft-passes-the-10000-customer-milestone-with-azure/6433 http://www.zdnet.com/blog/microsoft/microsoft-passes-the-100... [2] http://www.techflash.com/seattle/2010/07/microsoft_cloud_computing_appliance_to_be_tested_by_ebay.html http://www.techflash.com/seattle/2010/07/microsoft_cloud_com... [3] http://www.microsoft.com/windowsazure/evidence/ http://www.microsoft.com/windowsazure/evidence/
deleted 16y ago
[deleted]
Tycho 16y ago
I'm not sure I follow the logic of the article that Microsoft has to develop these other segments of its business to be a leader in the future. What's going to touch Windows and Office?
moqalib 16y ago
The article completely drops the ball on the Xbox. The XBox is Microsoft at it's best and it shows. I understand trying to prove a point, but lets not be disingenuous. It feels like Microsoft is 1 winning product away from turning the tide, or 1 loosing product from sealing it's irrelevance. I can't help but think how this article would've been written if Windows Phone 7 turns out to be a huge success 2 years from now. It's easy to paint a gloomy picture. The only trouble I see for Microsoft, is one where they are not seen as a leader. One where reactionary product after reactionary product renders them as a technology company seen by the outside world as chasing technology and not laying it's bricks.
naner 16y ago
They're obviously way too robust and have too much momentum to be in trouble any time soon. That being said, visit any college campus and most people are using Apples. The younger generations are growing up with the perception that Microsoft is for old people in suits and Apple is creative and classy.
benzheren 16y ago
I stayed in MS research for a little while. Their research department is really really strong and they have a lot of cool stuff. If they can better transfer them into products, things will be different.
lionhearted 16y ago
I'll never bet against a company with huge, established, consistent revenues and a strong research culture. That combination gives a large chance of being able to bring breakthrough technology to market.
- code_duck 16y ago
  Why can they not finish projects like the Courier tablet they were showing around? Or, even better, release something innovative before someone else has proven the market. It's been years, and they are just barely getting around to addressing the iPhone. They let Apple take off running with the iPad, and Microsoft still offers no comparable hardware or software... and it's not clear at all when they will.
  - Someone 16y ago
    1. They weren't showing a tablet, they were showing an idea. Nobody can build that thing at a reasonable price with technology that is available in the next two years. 2. IMO, they are making a long bet on C# and .Net that may pay of huge. C# in particular is a bit to programming languages what Apple is to computing devices: nothing really new, but really nicely packaged. Having said that, their focus on backwards compatibility doesn't help in keeping things nice. For example, .Net has how at least 3 XML serialization technologies, all with their own set of problems.
    - code_duck 16y ago
      Well, while they were showing an idea, Apple was selling 5 million tablets. I don't see why the idea is impractical, though - it was basically two iPads stuck together with a hinge. They have done well with their version of Java. It's generally well regarded.
      - Someone 16y ago
        I do not see how one would combine 'two iPads with a hinge' with 'for a reasonable price', even if it were 7" iPads. That hinge complicates the engineering a lot; the easy choice would be to have batteries in one half and CPU in the other, but I fear that might lead to asymmetry in weight and/or volume of the device.
motters 16y ago
Microsoft isn't dead yet, and its future depends upon how effectively it can leave its traditional revenue stream behind (Windows and Office). So far it has been lacklustre in the mobile and search markets, but done well in games. Despite setbacks (Vista) Microsoft held its own in terms of operating systems and office productivity software over the previous decade, but in the next decade I think it's going to be more than overtaken in these areas.
asciitaxi 16y ago
I think the problem is that MS used to sell everyone Windows for $300 and Office for $300. Then everyone had to buy them again at work. I'm not sure how they can make this up licensing a phone OS. What can they charge? Ten dollars?
contextfree 16y ago
I have no idea why you think that (paid, subscription-based) cloud computing offerings threaten Microsoft's revenues. In fact they've been trying to get people to move to a subscription model for like a decade now - which is understandable, since competition with their own previous versions and keeping people on the upgrade cycle has always been one of their biggest problems - and they are definitely aggressively promoting it (considering that this year's and the last two years' PDCs are largely focused around it). They are threatened in the consumer space by the trend towards web applications, they're not threatened in the enterprise space by the trend towards subscription-based cloud services (which is overhyped - including by Microsoft! anyway, but that's another story) - they welcome it. I guess people are conflating the two. (Since you posted a version of this article in another HN thread, I've reposted my response from that thread here.)
garret 16y ago
Three and a half years ago: http://paulgraham.com/microsoft.html http://paulgraham.com/microsoft.html
c00p3r 16y ago
It is OK. as a seller of game consoles. ^_^
protomyth 16y ago
Microsoft makes a lot of money. Sure, its not "sexy", but it has a solid hold on the enterprise. Nothing seems to be taking any significant market share away from Office. People just seem to expect one company to own 90% of the market and that really isn't going to happen with cellphones. Heck, the iPod, probably one of the more dominant devices in a consumer market, didn't get above 75%. Microsoft, like DEC with the mini to micro transition, is having a tad bit of trouble jumping from PCs driven by corporate sales to mobile devices driven by consumer sales. This is being mitigated by their experience with the XBox line in the consumer market. They make a lot of cash and probably will be one of the big cellphone / portable device operating systems. They also have a very large chest of patents to help with positioning.

115 points by mjfern 16y ago

Microsoft in the recent decade, has tried to indulge itself on different domains of IT. Obviously, it has failed on all of them, as stated by the author of this article. IMO, on contrary to the author, MS should stick to desktop/laptop Operating Systems. Desktop usage might have decreased but laptop is not going anywhere. There is so much market untapped in the world, I can't see the end of desktop OS. I don't see not using my laptop fo at least a decade. And yes, I don't want to use iOS or Android on my laptop. I like the old school Linux, Windows or OSX. Microsoft is not in trouble until they make products like Windows 7.

endtime 16y ago
>Microsoft in the recent decade, has tried to indulge itself on different domains of IT. Obviously, it has failed on all of them, I thought Sharepoint and SQL Server were huge hits - no?
- kenjackson 16y ago
  They are. Sharepoint in particular has been a surprise breakout hit. But even SQL Server has done very well and their recent BI push has been a pretty incredible success. Their online services, via BPOS, have also done very well. The issue is that in more consumer targeted areas MS is in trouble. But in the enterprise they're probably stronger now than in any time in recent memory.
  - rbanffy 16y ago
    > Sharepoint in particular has been a surprise breakout hit. Indeed. Tech historians will scratch their heads about that for generations. It's such a horrid product to use that one can only wonder how bad its competition is.
    - kenjackson 16y ago
      We disagree about a lot, but this is one thing that I do agree with. On both counts... Sharepoint doesn't seem to be very good software. But the competition is even worse. If some bright YC company that gets enterprise could come and do stellar document management, they'd easily have a $100M company. With potential for a $1B+ company.
      - rbanffy 16y ago
        I think it's only the perceived competition that's worse. I have deployed and helped deploy a great deal of intranets and websites based on Plone (I worked with "bare" Zope before) and it's delightful to use, manage, develop for and operate. True it doesn't have a billion+ dollar company behind it like Sharepoint, Documentum, Oracle's whatever-it's-called, but I think it's a feature rather than a bug. > If some bright YC company (...) As soon as this founder visa thing gets sorted out, I'm in.
        kenjackson 16y ago
        Plone 3 was horrible, but I've heard better things about Plone 4. Post when you get started on it. I have a list of features that you'll need to get in the door of most enterprises, and a list of new features that will get you $10M in licenses your first year, virtually guaranteed.
        rbanffy 16y ago
        While I agree Plone 3 was not as simple and elegant as I would like it to be, it's much better than most "corporate" CMSs. For the developer, the learning curve is steep, specially for those unwilling to unlearn bad habits, but for end users, it's easy to use and fairly complete. What problems did you experience with it? I may be able to help.
- jaspero 16y ago
  I am sorry if I was not clear enough, but my interpretation of other domains was music players, tablets,etc. I agree Sharepoint and SQL Server are huge hits and they are doing good in corporate applications.
  - hammerdr 16y ago
    So, what you're saying is that Microsoft has failed in all domains of IT where MS has failed?

theprodigy 16y ago

Microsoft is not in trouble yet. They still make huge amounts of cash so they can keep trying to gain share in these "disruptive" markets. Though they have failed time and again they have the money to keep trying and they just need to be successful once and that cash and brand can solidify their postion.

InclinedPlane 16y ago

Yes. They've been in trouble for years. There are several key points in the growth (or lack thereof) of a company. There is the initial inflection point where the rate of growth is positive (the company begins growing at a faster than linear pace). There is the inflection point where the rate of growth becomes negative (the company may still be growing, but slower and slower). Then there is the point where the effects of that 2nd inflection point become readily apparent, the peak, when growth stops and then begins to reverse. Then there is the point where the company has shrunk to a shell of what it once was. MS has passed that 2nd inflection point, but the peak and the fall are still ahead of them. With the amount of marketshare, locked in business, and cash-on-hand they have they'll be a long time falling but the writing is on the wall, unless something changes.

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

potatolicious 16y ago

> "In video game consoles, the Xbox 360 is trailing far behind the Nintendo Wii in market share, despite the fact that the Wii is using older generation technology (VGChartz, 2010)." I was with them until here. The Xbox 360 has claimed a gigantic share of the market starting from nothing just a few short years ago. Compared to Nintendo, whose sales of the Wii have slowed to a relative crawl, and whose mobile gaming market is being relentlessly gutted by smartphones. The Xbox is also enjoying an attach rate that is the envy of the industry (simplified: number of games bought per console), as well as being the only one able to get away with charging for online services. They're also about to launch a device that (having tried it myself) makes the Wii's #1 selling point an also-ran. If anything, the Xbox is stronger than ever before, and one of the few examples of markets where MS is doing just about everything right. I'm convinced that J Allard's departure was a gigantic blow to Microsoft; in fact, IMHO the secret to MS's success in the consumer products space lies in the Xbox team.

mjfern 16y ago
Good points, but let me offer a few counterpoints: - All three consoles started from nothing just a few short years ago, and in fact the XBox 360 had a year head start on the PS3 and the Wii (launching at the end of 2005 versus end of 2006 for the PS3 and Wii.) - According to VG Chartz, the Wii has sold 8.97 million consoles from Jan-Oct 2010, while the Xbox 360 has sold 6.8 million and the PS3 has sold 7.1 million. Yes, XBox 360 sales faired much better over the summer, but we will have to wait and see if this indicates a sustainable trend or a blip. - Yes, Xbox 360 is doing well from the standpoint of attach rates, with an 8.9 versus around a 7ish for the Wii. It appears the PS3 has been gaining significant ground lately with its attach rate. - In the fiscal year 2010, Microsoft's Entertainment and Devices Division (which includes the Xbox 360) generated $8.5 billion in revenues and just $679 million in operating income. Considering Microsoft's consolidated operating income in 2010 was $24 billion, this $679 million represents only about 3% of Microsoft's profits. - Ultimately, the Xbox 360, the PS3, and the Wii may be irrelevant given the emergence of connected televisions, thin devices, and cloud-based gaming.
- bad_user 16y ago

moondowner 16y ago

If you put it this way, yes they are in trouble. But the thing is.. they are in trouble for some years, and they still make awesome revenue. Turns out it's not only about the bleeding edge technology, it's about keeping the current user group, about marketing, lobbying, etc...

kokor 16y ago

"Are iSheeps posting in HN?"

jp 16y ago

So Microsoft is failing because Apple, Google and Nintendo is performing better in seperate markets ? What about the Nintendo Office Suite, the Apple SQL Server or the Google Zune ?

ratsbane 16y ago
The Apple SQL Server is MySQL or Postgres. The Google Zune is Android. Lots of people still pay the premium price for Microsoft Office but they don't need to. I haven't used it in years. Instead I use Google Docs and OpenOffice.
- aphexairlines 16y ago
  How is this an argument? You personally don't use a product, ergo it's dying?
  - ratsbane 16y ago
    That clearly wasn't my point. http://blog.rescuetime.com/2010/06/17/google-is-eating-microsofts-lunch-one-tasty-bite-at-a-time/ http://blog.rescuetime.com/2010/06/17/google-is-eating-micro...
    - recoiledsnake 16y ago
      Those numbers look highly improbable, especially coming from such a small subset. This article shows the number of Office online users in just the first 100 days after launch as 20 million, compared to 25 million for Google Apps. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/microsoftpri0/2013086938_microsoftofficewebappssays20millionhaveusedit.html http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/microsoftpri0/20130869...
      - Matt_Cutts 16y ago
        Besides those 20M, MSFT recently announced 30 million active Windows Live Spaces users: http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/article/Microsoft-Windows-Live-Spaces-already-dead-WordPresscom-will-only-get-1-of-30M-users/1285781027 http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/article/Microsoft-Windows-...

aresant 16y ago

What? a) XBOX usage destroys Wii in usage, games purchased, and subscription fees all of which are better indicators of the platform' success than hardware units sold which are traditionally a loss leader. And oh yah, XBOX is wildy profitable. Meanwhile Wii sales are down 45% since last September! b) They are JUST launching their mobile platform which has gotten fair to begrundgingly good reviews and is opening in 30 markets supported by HTC, DELL, LG, AT&T, Verizon, etc. You can expect MSFT to be AT WORST the #3 player in an insanely huge and growing market. c) BING just signed an innovative deal with Facebook, Google's copying features from them, and they're gaining traction while Google has been stagnant and slightly down year to date. And that's ignoring that Windows 7 is on a tear, and a great product to boot. 2010 has been a huge year for MSFT, if they manage to keep executing at this level they are going to win a couple of these markets. Microsoft plays loooonnnnng ball and they've got tens of billions in the bank, I certainly wouldn't say they're in trouble. DATA: http://www.crunchgear.com/2010/10/15/uh-oh-september-wii-sales-down-45-from-last-year/ http://www.crunchgear.com/2010/10/15/uh-oh-september-wii-sal... http://www.gamespot.com/xbox360/action/halo3untitledodstgame/news.html?sid=6237794 http://www.gamespot.com/xbox360/action/halo3untitledodstgame... http://www.engadget.com/2010/10/11/microsoft-announces-ten-windows-phone-7-handsets-for-30-countrie/ http://www.engadget.com/2010/10/11/microsoft-announces-ten-w... http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-total-cash-and-st-investments-of-tech-companies-2010-2 http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-total-cash-a... http://siteanalytics.compete.com/bing.com/ http://siteanalytics.compete.com/bing.com/ http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2010/10/comScore_Releases_September_2010_U.S._Search_Engine_Rankings http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2010/10/... http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2010/6/comScore_Releases_May_2010_U.S._Search_Engine_Rankings http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2010/6/c...

latch 16y ago
What?! Xbox is wildly profitable? xbox (original + 360) has lost MS tens of billions of dollars in its history (not an exaggeration). The fact that its just now (the last 2 quarters, an no more) pulling in profits in the hundreds of millions means that they'll break even in 5-10 years. If you gave me $10, and I gave you back $0.50, would you consider it a "wildly profitable" venture for yourself?

kj12345 16y ago

The biggest threat to Microsoft is their lack of a clear vision and message about where Office is going. I guess there's some strange service at officelive.com where I can maybe store, maybe edit documents online, but possibly I need a license for Office to do so, and I still get the impression that its meant to be supplementary to the desktop offering. The lack of an actual full-on web-based product - whether Silverlight or HTML - seems like a huge failure on their part. They need to create something real here and then market it in a clear and direct way.

sriramk 16y ago

As someone who works on Windows Azure, this got under my skin a bit :). In particular, I thought this was slightly lazy writing (W.r.t Azure) "I suspect it’s not performing well" and "Put simply, it’s hard to imagine that Microsoft is aggressively developing or marketing Azure, since cloud computing offerings directly threaten Microsoft’s revenues and profitability in the PC market, especially its Windows and Office products. " From Ballmer mentioning "we're all in" in pretty much every speech he has done recently all the way to Azure being all over the financial analyst meeting [1][2], I sometimes think there's not a day that goes by when I don't hear about Azure in some way from MSFT :) [1] http://kara.allthingsd.com/20100729/liveblogging-microsofts-financial-analyst-meeting-its-a-beautiful-day/ http://kara.allthingsd.com/20100729/liveblogging-microsofts-... [2] http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Cloud-Computing/Microsoft-Pushes-Cloud-at-Financial-Analyst-Meeting-675840/ http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Cloud-Computing/Microsoft-Pushes-Cl...

mjfern 16y ago
Sorry, that wasn't my attention. I tried to research Azure online, looking for hard numbers on its performance in the cloud computing market (e.g., # of companies using Azure, adoption rates, etc.), but I was unable to find any concrete data. In fact, I struggled to even find a thorough review of Azure. Can you please point me to some data and/or reviews so I can incorporate this information properly into any future posts? Thanks!
- sriramk 16y ago
  Some quick links - Back in June, we announced 10K paying customers (6 months post launch)[1]. If you're looking for some 'big names', eBay, Dell, Fujitsu and HP are going to be using the Azure Appliance [2]. This is of course apart from internal teams like the Bing Twitter stuff. There's a neat Pivot visualization of case studies and partners here [3] - Review - I'm not sure what you're looking for. Searching for 'Windows Azure review' brings up a lot of hits. I've written a book on it and so have others. There are tons of blogs dedicated to it (azurejournal.com for example). What exactly are you looking for? My intent with this isn't to sound like some marketing droid.:) [1] http://www.zdnet.com/blog/microsoft/microsoft-passes-the-10000-customer-milestone-with-azure/6433 http://www.zdnet.com/blog/microsoft/microsoft-passes-the-100... [2] http://www.techflash.com/seattle/2010/07/microsoft_cloud_computing_appliance_to_be_tested_by_ebay.html http://www.techflash.com/seattle/2010/07/microsoft_cloud_com... [3] http://www.microsoft.com/windowsazure/evidence/ http://www.microsoft.com/windowsazure/evidence/

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

Tycho 16y ago

I'm not sure I follow the logic of the article that Microsoft has to develop these other segments of its business to be a leader in the future. What's going to touch Windows and Office?

moqalib 16y ago

The article completely drops the ball on the Xbox. The XBox is Microsoft at it's best and it shows. I understand trying to prove a point, but lets not be disingenuous. It feels like Microsoft is 1 winning product away from turning the tide, or 1 loosing product from sealing it's irrelevance. I can't help but think how this article would've been written if Windows Phone 7 turns out to be a huge success 2 years from now. It's easy to paint a gloomy picture. The only trouble I see for Microsoft, is one where they are not seen as a leader. One where reactionary product after reactionary product renders them as a technology company seen by the outside world as chasing technology and not laying it's bricks.

naner 16y ago

They're obviously way too robust and have too much momentum to be in trouble any time soon. That being said, visit any college campus and most people are using Apples. The younger generations are growing up with the perception that Microsoft is for old people in suits and Apple is creative and classy.

benzheren 16y ago

I stayed in MS research for a little while. Their research department is really really strong and they have a lot of cool stuff. If they can better transfer them into products, things will be different.

lionhearted 16y ago

I'll never bet against a company with huge, established, consistent revenues and a strong research culture. That combination gives a large chance of being able to bring breakthrough technology to market.

code_duck 16y ago
Why can they not finish projects like the Courier tablet they were showing around? Or, even better, release something innovative before someone else has proven the market. It's been years, and they are just barely getting around to addressing the iPhone. They let Apple take off running with the iPad, and Microsoft still offers no comparable hardware or software... and it's not clear at all when they will.
- Someone 16y ago
  1. They weren't showing a tablet, they were showing an idea. Nobody can build that thing at a reasonable price with technology that is available in the next two years. 2. IMO, they are making a long bet on C# and .Net that may pay of huge. C# in particular is a bit to programming languages what Apple is to computing devices: nothing really new, but really nicely packaged. Having said that, their focus on backwards compatibility doesn't help in keeping things nice. For example, .Net has how at least 3 XML serialization technologies, all with their own set of problems.
  - code_duck 16y ago
    Well, while they were showing an idea, Apple was selling 5 million tablets. I don't see why the idea is impractical, though - it was basically two iPads stuck together with a hinge. They have done well with their version of Java. It's generally well regarded.
    - Someone 16y ago
      I do not see how one would combine 'two iPads with a hinge' with 'for a reasonable price', even if it were 7" iPads. That hinge complicates the engineering a lot; the easy choice would be to have batteries in one half and CPU in the other, but I fear that might lead to asymmetry in weight and/or volume of the device.

motters 16y ago

Microsoft isn't dead yet, and its future depends upon how effectively it can leave its traditional revenue stream behind (Windows and Office). So far it has been lacklustre in the mobile and search markets, but done well in games. Despite setbacks (Vista) Microsoft held its own in terms of operating systems and office productivity software over the previous decade, but in the next decade I think it's going to be more than overtaken in these areas.

asciitaxi 16y ago

I think the problem is that MS used to sell everyone Windows for $300 and Office for $300. Then everyone had to buy them again at work. I'm not sure how they can make this up licensing a phone OS. What can they charge? Ten dollars?

contextfree 16y ago

I have no idea why you think that (paid, subscription-based) cloud computing offerings threaten Microsoft's revenues. In fact they've been trying to get people to move to a subscription model for like a decade now - which is understandable, since competition with their own previous versions and keeping people on the upgrade cycle has always been one of their biggest problems - and they are definitely aggressively promoting it (considering that this year's and the last two years' PDCs are largely focused around it). They are threatened in the consumer space by the trend towards web applications, they're not threatened in the enterprise space by the trend towards subscription-based cloud services (which is overhyped - including by Microsoft! anyway, but that's another story) - they welcome it. I guess people are conflating the two. (Since you posted a version of this article in another HN thread, I've reposted my response from that thread here.)

garret 16y ago

Three and a half years ago: http://paulgraham.com/microsoft.html http://paulgraham.com/microsoft.html

c00p3r 16y ago

It is OK. as a seller of game consoles. ^_^

protomyth 16y ago

Microsoft makes a lot of money. Sure, its not "sexy", but it has a solid hold on the enterprise. Nothing seems to be taking any significant market share away from Office. People just seem to expect one company to own 90% of the market and that really isn't going to happen with cellphones. Heck, the iPod, probably one of the more dominant devices in a consumer market, didn't get above 75%. Microsoft, like DEC with the mini to micro transition, is having a tad bit of trouble jumping from PCs driven by corporate sales to mobile devices driven by consumer sales. This is being mitigated by their experience with the XBox line in the consumer market. They make a lot of cash and probably will be one of the big cellphone / portable device operating systems. They also have a very large chest of patents to help with positioning.