10 ms·

Driving in dry / warm conditions is simple mechanics. Driving in snow and ice is an art. In snow and ice, variables that are typically constant or static beco

by scj 8y ago

Driving in dry / warm conditions is simple mechanics. Driving in snow and ice is an art. In snow and ice, variables that are typically constant or static become dynamic. Formally dynamic variables now become multi-variable equations. For example: travelling down a hill normally requires dynamically factoring for the extra speed due to the incline. Under blizzard conditions you have to factor ice/snow volume, as well as the incline. I don't want to share the road with self-driving cars in winter for a long time.

ocdtrekkie 8y ago
Variables I can think of that change: - Lane lines cease to be a thing, even if you can see them, you're better off not following them - Stoplights also mostly become a guideline, it's sometimes safer to run them than spin out - Signage or signalling may or may not be visible at all - Other cars or pedestrians may or may not be visible at all even in daylight - Your stopping distance can effectively change every few feet - A foot of snow accumulation may be transferred from the roof of the car in front of you to the windshield of your car with little to no warning
- throwawayjava 8y ago
  Of these, the following are attributable to "static variables become dynamic" (and highly nonlinear at that...): - Your stopping distance can effectively change every few feet - A foot of snow accumulation may be transferred from the roof of the car in front of you to the windshield of your car with little to no warning The following are hard planning problems: - Lane lines cease to be a thing, even if you can see them, you're better off not following them - Stoplights also mostly become a guideline, it's sometimes safer to run them than spin out But these are just damn hard and probably the true limiting factors: - Signage or signalling may or may not be visible at all - Other cars or pedestrians may or may not be visible at all even in daylight But I'm not an expert on perception so... maybe that's my bias showing.
- smileysteve 8y ago
  Infrared vision seems to handle a lot of these, if not especially the last one
throwawayjava 8y ago
The one glimmer of hope that I have is that I am literally incapable of driving in the snow without substantial software assistance, and that's true for literally every other human I know.
- Retra 8y ago
  Some basic knowledge of traction and momentum go a long way. Your car will generally go the way it is heading, as far as it can slide. Every time I see people lose control in the snow and ice, it is because they're driving with their brakes and not their momentum.
- bsagdiyev 8y ago
  You and the people you know may just not be suited for driving in those conditions. Mountain areas in California have plenty of people capable driving in some serious snow with older cars, ABS is usually the only thing they have, no traction control or other software help. Anecdotal, of course, but so is your comment.
  - throwawayjava 8y ago
    > You and the people you know may just not be suited for driving in those conditions ...northern Wisconsin gets its fair share of snow. > ABS is usually the only thing they have I think you've just agreed with me. ABS and TCS are exactly the systems I was referring to, and most of today's drivers have never encountered a car that doesn't at least have ABS. I've driven a car without ABS or TCS in the snow. It's extremely difficult. Kind of similar to driving a stick shift for the first time. The idea is simple, but getting it into muscle memory enough that you're not constantly making mistakes is non-trivial.
- jerkstate 8y ago
  I learned to drive on snow and ice in the midwest in a stick-shift car from the '70s.. of course, I would rather have traction control and ABS, but it can certainly be done (and it was for many years before the modern conveniences)
njarboe 8y ago
Or most people. If it is actually blizzard conditions, one should have a very serious reason to be on the road. If not, stay at home instead of driving. Snow days are called for schools. Maybe work in general also?
- emodendroket 8y ago
  Yeah I don't think most bosses in Boston are going to let you stay home every time it snows.
  - notatoad 8y ago
    There's a difference between "every time it snows" and "actual blizzard conditions".
    - emodendroket 8y ago
      Self-driving cars don't deal with either scenario very well yet.
  - LandR 8y ago
    The last 2 jobs I've had we've always been told pretty explicitly if the roads are bad with snow DO NOT try to get to work. Hell, I've been told I've not even to walk to work when it's snowing. ALthough saying that the last time it snowed here badly, I tried to walk to shop and fell over twice. Maybe my employer just knows me too well...
    - emodendroket 8y ago
      Yes, but the experience of a software developer is not representative of most people's experiences. A lot of jobs they're going to want you there if the roads are not literally closed, come hell or high water.
- jakeogh 8y ago
  Bad trend when limitations of pre-programmed cars become apparent; treat the humans as the bugs.
grahamburger 8y ago
This sounds like exactly the kind of job for a computer. I live in an area that gets a lot of snow. The only 'safe' things for a human to do in snowy, icy, wet conditions are: slow down (a lot), leave a lot more following distance, stay home. I talk to a lot of people who seem to think that they are able to drive at full speed in the snow and complain about all of the 'out of town' drivers who slow down the roads because they 'don't know how to drive in the snow.' It's the people who make those kinds of complaints that frighten me the most - they are deluding themselves. I'd rather share the road with a computer.
- scj 8y ago
  > I'd rather share the road with a computer. Not version 1. Factoring in all these variables is going to be a lot of work for a non-universal feature. I have no doubt they'll be included some day, but I doubt it'll be day 1. EDIT: To be clear, I believe that dealing with ice and snow is an order of magnitude more difficult than driving under normal conditions. This is an 80-20 feature that many people won't need. I can't imagine holding the product back for additional development when just locking the feature based on a thermometer would suffice.
  - Moru 8y ago
    I'm worried about the south europeans jumping into their self-driving car thinking they can come visit us in northern Sweden early spring (their season, still full winter here). How do you meassure how slippery the road is? How much wind from the side? Will the wind blow me off the road because it has been polished by the wind just after those trees end, next to the lake? Will the car know to stop before even going because the car doesn't have winter tyres with good enough tracktion left? A self-driving truck, does it know enough not to slow down in the uphill because it will start to glide sideways or backwards where the road leans too much to the side? I get gray hair when I start thinking of all the problems that needs to be solved before we have self-driving cars. One of the developer voes, am I wise enough to be humble about my limits of knowledge or do I know enough to be dangerous?
    - 8y ago
mortehu 8y ago
Yet electronic stability control[1] works far better than human control on snow, wet roads, or ice. If you don't believe it, try an obstacle course on an ice track with and without it sometime (a required part of driver's ed in Norway). Example: https://youtu.be/hd5JMQr4qe0?t=56s https://youtu.be/hd5JMQr4qe0?t=56s https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_stability_control https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_stability_control
- manfredo 8y ago
  Stability and traction control is not the same as a self driving car. Keeping wheels from locking, and keeping cars from sliding is largely a solved problem. I think the previous poster was more about referencing recognition of patches of ice ahead and slowing down preemptively. This is a big issue in places with bridges, since ice can form on bridges but not the rest of the roads (since bridges aren't kept warm by the earth, the dirt under most roads acts like a heat battery). Also expecting when other drivers will slide. I've actually witnessed people getting, how would you put this, reverse-rear-ended by drivers trying to go up a hill and then sliding back down.
  - mikejb 8y ago
    I'd argue that Self-driving cars are better capable of recognizing ice patches. They don't just rely on visible light to see the ice, but have a more diverse sensor array. The challenge there of course is having the car learn to interpret the input of these sensors. But that doesn't seem like a unpassable hurdle. On the contrary, it would be pretty high on the list of things to tackle when aiming for driving in snowy weather.
    - jakeogh 8y ago
      Ignoring the real problem you mentioned, camera dynamic range (for example) is pathetic compared to the human eye.
      - mikejb 8y ago
skookumchuck 8y ago
Frank: Well of course I know all the wonderful achievements of the 9000 series, but, uh, are you certain there has never been any case of even the most insignificant computer error? HAL: None whatsoever, Frank. Quite honestly, I wouldn't worry myself about that.
graycat 8y ago
E.g., going down hill in the winter commonly requires putting the transmission in neutral since just the torque to the drive wheels from the engine idling or the engine braking can overwhelm the very tiny traction available. There's a really short description for self-driving cars -- hyperhype.
- notatoad 8y ago
  What? I've been driving in the mountains in Canada for 15 years and have never heard of anybody doing this.
  - graycat 8y ago
    I do it every winter going down my driveway. Otherwise my tires would slide instead of roll; I'd lose directional control; my car from just some bump in the driveway could turn sideways; and I could roll upside down, over and over, the rest of the way down the driveway. And I'm in two wheel drive and not 4 wheel drive because the extra torque it takes to turn the machinery for 4 wheel drive is too much for the poor traction. I stop at the top of the driveway, make sure I'm in 2 wheel drive, hold the transmission selector so that I can get into neutral quickly and easily, just slightly get the car rolling, go for neutral, mostly just let the car roll down at most just touching the brakes very lightly or not at all, let the car get to the level, bottom of the driveway and a start on the back yard, and then stop the car, go into reverse, backup a little, and then take a left turn into the garage. Losing directional control and having the car turn sideways and roll over is a big risk. The driveway is not very long, but it's steep.
- davchana 8y ago
  I have always heard it in opposite; that it will be hard to brake & stop if in neutral as compared to if in appropriate gear.
  - graycat 8y ago
    There can be cases in two wheel drive where the engine is just idling with the transmission in Drive, touch the brakes just a little, and have the drive wheels turning and moving the car while the other two wheels, with so little traction, are not turning but sliding with no directional control.

by scj 8y ago

ocdtrekkie 8y ago

Variables I can think of that change: - Lane lines cease to be a thing, even if you can see them, you're better off not following them - Stoplights also mostly become a guideline, it's sometimes safer to run them than spin out - Signage or signalling may or may not be visible at all - Other cars or pedestrians may or may not be visible at all even in daylight - Your stopping distance can effectively change every few feet - A foot of snow accumulation may be transferred from the roof of the car in front of you to the windshield of your car with little to no warning

throwawayjava 8y ago
Of these, the following are attributable to "static variables become dynamic" (and highly nonlinear at that...): - Your stopping distance can effectively change every few feet - A foot of snow accumulation may be transferred from the roof of the car in front of you to the windshield of your car with little to no warning The following are hard planning problems: - Lane lines cease to be a thing, even if you can see them, you're better off not following them - Stoplights also mostly become a guideline, it's sometimes safer to run them than spin out But these are just damn hard and probably the true limiting factors: - Signage or signalling may or may not be visible at all - Other cars or pedestrians may or may not be visible at all even in daylight But I'm not an expert on perception so... maybe that's my bias showing.
smileysteve 8y ago
Infrared vision seems to handle a lot of these, if not especially the last one

throwawayjava 8y ago

The one glimmer of hope that I have is that I am literally incapable of driving in the snow without substantial software assistance, and that's true for literally every other human I know.

Retra 8y ago
Some basic knowledge of traction and momentum go a long way. Your car will generally go the way it is heading, as far as it can slide. Every time I see people lose control in the snow and ice, it is because they're driving with their brakes and not their momentum.
bsagdiyev 8y ago
You and the people you know may just not be suited for driving in those conditions. Mountain areas in California have plenty of people capable driving in some serious snow with older cars, ABS is usually the only thing they have, no traction control or other software help. Anecdotal, of course, but so is your comment.
- throwawayjava 8y ago
  > You and the people you know may just not be suited for driving in those conditions ...northern Wisconsin gets its fair share of snow. > ABS is usually the only thing they have I think you've just agreed with me. ABS and TCS are exactly the systems I was referring to, and most of today's drivers have never encountered a car that doesn't at least have ABS. I've driven a car without ABS or TCS in the snow. It's extremely difficult. Kind of similar to driving a stick shift for the first time. The idea is simple, but getting it into muscle memory enough that you're not constantly making mistakes is non-trivial.
jerkstate 8y ago
I learned to drive on snow and ice in the midwest in a stick-shift car from the '70s.. of course, I would rather have traction control and ABS, but it can certainly be done (and it was for many years before the modern conveniences)

njarboe 8y ago

Or most people. If it is actually blizzard conditions, one should have a very serious reason to be on the road. If not, stay at home instead of driving. Snow days are called for schools. Maybe work in general also?

emodendroket 8y ago
Yeah I don't think most bosses in Boston are going to let you stay home every time it snows.
- notatoad 8y ago
  There's a difference between "every time it snows" and "actual blizzard conditions".
  - emodendroket 8y ago
    Self-driving cars don't deal with either scenario very well yet.
- LandR 8y ago
  The last 2 jobs I've had we've always been told pretty explicitly if the roads are bad with snow DO NOT try to get to work. Hell, I've been told I've not even to walk to work when it's snowing. ALthough saying that the last time it snowed here badly, I tried to walk to shop and fell over twice. Maybe my employer just knows me too well...
  - emodendroket 8y ago
    Yes, but the experience of a software developer is not representative of most people's experiences. A lot of jobs they're going to want you there if the roads are not literally closed, come hell or high water.
jakeogh 8y ago
Bad trend when limitations of pre-programmed cars become apparent; treat the humans as the bugs.

grahamburger 8y ago

This sounds like exactly the kind of job for a computer. I live in an area that gets a lot of snow. The only 'safe' things for a human to do in snowy, icy, wet conditions are: slow down (a lot), leave a lot more following distance, stay home. I talk to a lot of people who seem to think that they are able to drive at full speed in the snow and complain about all of the 'out of town' drivers who slow down the roads because they 'don't know how to drive in the snow.' It's the people who make those kinds of complaints that frighten me the most - they are deluding themselves. I'd rather share the road with a computer.

scj 8y ago
> I'd rather share the road with a computer. Not version 1. Factoring in all these variables is going to be a lot of work for a non-universal feature. I have no doubt they'll be included some day, but I doubt it'll be day 1. EDIT: To be clear, I believe that dealing with ice and snow is an order of magnitude more difficult than driving under normal conditions. This is an 80-20 feature that many people won't need. I can't imagine holding the product back for additional development when just locking the feature based on a thermometer would suffice.
- Moru 8y ago
  I'm worried about the south europeans jumping into their self-driving car thinking they can come visit us in northern Sweden early spring (their season, still full winter here). How do you meassure how slippery the road is? How much wind from the side? Will the wind blow me off the road because it has been polished by the wind just after those trees end, next to the lake? Will the car know to stop before even going because the car doesn't have winter tyres with good enough tracktion left? A self-driving truck, does it know enough not to slow down in the uphill because it will start to glide sideways or backwards where the road leans too much to the side? I get gray hair when I start thinking of all the problems that needs to be solved before we have self-driving cars. One of the developer voes, am I wise enough to be humble about my limits of knowledge or do I know enough to be dangerous?
  - 8y ago

mortehu 8y ago

Yet electronic stability control[1] works far better than human control on snow, wet roads, or ice. If you don't believe it, try an obstacle course on an ice track with and without it sometime (a required part of driver's ed in Norway). Example: https://youtu.be/hd5JMQr4qe0?t=56s https://youtu.be/hd5JMQr4qe0?t=56s https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_stability_control https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_stability_control

manfredo 8y ago
Stability and traction control is not the same as a self driving car. Keeping wheels from locking, and keeping cars from sliding is largely a solved problem. I think the previous poster was more about referencing recognition of patches of ice ahead and slowing down preemptively. This is a big issue in places with bridges, since ice can form on bridges but not the rest of the roads (since bridges aren't kept warm by the earth, the dirt under most roads acts like a heat battery). Also expecting when other drivers will slide. I've actually witnessed people getting, how would you put this, reverse-rear-ended by drivers trying to go up a hill and then sliding back down.
- mikejb 8y ago
  I'd argue that Self-driving cars are better capable of recognizing ice patches. They don't just rely on visible light to see the ice, but have a more diverse sensor array. The challenge there of course is having the car learn to interpret the input of these sensors. But that doesn't seem like a unpassable hurdle. On the contrary, it would be pretty high on the list of things to tackle when aiming for driving in snowy weather.
  - jakeogh 8y ago
    Ignoring the real problem you mentioned, camera dynamic range (for example) is pathetic compared to the human eye.
    - mikejb 8y ago

skookumchuck 8y ago

Frank: Well of course I know all the wonderful achievements of the 9000 series, but, uh, are you certain there has never been any case of even the most insignificant computer error? HAL: None whatsoever, Frank. Quite honestly, I wouldn't worry myself about that.

graycat 8y ago

E.g., going down hill in the winter commonly requires putting the transmission in neutral since just the torque to the drive wheels from the engine idling or the engine braking can overwhelm the very tiny traction available. There's a really short description for self-driving cars -- hyperhype.

notatoad 8y ago
What? I've been driving in the mountains in Canada for 15 years and have never heard of anybody doing this.
- graycat 8y ago
  I do it every winter going down my driveway. Otherwise my tires would slide instead of roll; I'd lose directional control; my car from just some bump in the driveway could turn sideways; and I could roll upside down, over and over, the rest of the way down the driveway. And I'm in two wheel drive and not 4 wheel drive because the extra torque it takes to turn the machinery for 4 wheel drive is too much for the poor traction. I stop at the top of the driveway, make sure I'm in 2 wheel drive, hold the transmission selector so that I can get into neutral quickly and easily, just slightly get the car rolling, go for neutral, mostly just let the car roll down at most just touching the brakes very lightly or not at all, let the car get to the level, bottom of the driveway and a start on the back yard, and then stop the car, go into reverse, backup a little, and then take a left turn into the garage. Losing directional control and having the car turn sideways and roll over is a big risk. The driveway is not very long, but it's steep.
davchana 8y ago
I have always heard it in opposite; that it will be hard to brake & stop if in neutral as compared to if in appropriate gear.
- graycat 8y ago
  There can be cases in two wheel drive where the engine is just idling with the transmission in Drive, touch the brakes just a little, and have the drive wheels turning and moving the car while the other two wheels, with so little traction, are not turning but sliding with no directional control.