10 ms·

Android

168 points by okeumeni 16y ago

srwh 16y ago
We discussed this before... but... what if Microsoft developer tools are better than Apple (xcode) and Android (eclipse) ? what if any guy can develop some software in a few days while doing the same for Android and the Apple takes 2x o 3x? what if Silverlight experience is better than html5 or native UIs? And... what if connecting games between desktop, xbox and mobile works? Many "What IFs", but for me the developing tools and silverlight are key. Also on the RIM side QNX is a very promising bet against Linux/iOS/Windows, the demo doesn't feel real, but QNX is a strong OS.
- mahmud 16y ago
  Have you written code for Android? To make it any easier, you would have to advance the state of IDE and language integration by a few decades. Sure, it doesn't let you draw widgets by hand and attach callbacks all in an instant, like Visual Basic, but, for an API, it the simplest, most obvious thing you can imagine. And FWIW, I do my Android hacking with emacs and a shell buffer.
  - endtime 16y ago
    I haven't seen the Android docs, but for building an app with a GUI I genuinely can't think of anything better than the WinPhone7 SDK.
    - mahmud 16y ago
      What do you think makes WP7 superior to Android? Please be as detailed as you can; this is not an argument, it's a feature request :-) A million lurking volunteers, bored but capable as they are, will take it upon themselves to improve Android before Google gets around to it (it's a vicious race for good hacks.)
      - tomerico 16y ago
        I can share my experience from developing with Silverlight and c# for a few years (Though for the past year I've developed exclusively in java). First of all the language. c#, especially in the latest iterations has become incredible. Featuring the goodness of both statically and dynamically typed languages. It has become very elegant and powerful. Sadly, I can't say anything similar on Java. Is has been very slow to advance, very conservative when advancing, and the tools are still so slow (At least eclipse). Regarding GUI development on Silverlight. Microsoft has done many things right with it. It has the best separation of UI and logic that I have seen built right into it. They have xml files to represent the UI (In the same way web has HTML), and the framework is as flexibly as could be (e.g. it wouldn't take you more than a minute to create a scrollbar that looks like a clock for example (If you have the graphics ready). And the most important of all - they have a UI editor built for DESIGNERS. It encourages you to worry about the UI look and feel, and not on the logic behind it. It has tools in it from the designers world, and encapsulate a lot of headaches (E.g. setting a gradient direction is done by dragging a line over the area, and not by setting some numbers). In addition, Silverlight has the advantage of being a second generation after WPF. Microsoft has learned from its mistakes with WPF, and simplified Silverlight dramatically. They could do that because Silverlight was a new technology which didn't have the requirement to be backward compatible.
        mahmud 16y ago
        Excellent! Android allows you to define your UI in XML as well[1]. It's not that novel, Flex does the same thing too. But not to be too dismissive, it would nice to hear of experts in both to tell us what Android might be lacking. Regards UI editor, yes, Android doesn't have any WYSIWYG UI editors. There is one, but it's 3rd party and not as polished as you describe MS's to be. -- [1]http://developer.android.com/guide/topics/ui/index.html http://developer.android.com/guide/topics/ui/index.html
        kenjackson 16y ago
        With respect to Android vs WP7 controls is the lookless nature of Silverlight controls. This allows you to completely reskin and add new behavior to an existing control while maintaining all of its current behavior.
  - gecko 16y ago
    I kind of passionately disagree. I think that both Apple and Microsoft's tools blow Android's out of the water. Objective-C and C# are more pleasant languages; the graphics libraries are in vastly better shape (ever wonder why Android scrolling blows so much compared to iPhone?); tools for profiling and the like are vastly better; etc. Android's tools don't suck, but I think they're objectively inferior to Apple's and Microsoft's across the board.
    - mahmud 16y ago
      True. And private gardens are superior to public parks. Android at least has garbage collection .. native C interface, and it's open to you as your mother's arms. If Android lacks anything, it's only a matter of time before it's fixed. The cat is out of the bag, and the OS of the mobile future is Google's as much as it's yours and mine. For every polished iPhone handset sold, there are three crappy but wide-open android devices sold to hungry minds. iPhone is the best mobile OS today, in terms of polish and usability, but Android powers devices that haven't been conceived yet! Poor grad students in EE and CS are all over the mailing-lists, asking for help with Android ports to their cheap boards. They're ambitious, confused, tired and hungry. They don't know what they're doing .. yet. They're just making use of what they have, a Free OS that does the basics. However, said students, amateurs, wannabes and beginners number in the millions .. the little busy bees are hard at work, reading, writing, and hacking, and in five years time, when they know better, when they're more capable, when they graduate and funded, you can bet your last dime they will make this a Free Android world. Neither Apple nor Microsoft have enough money to buy people's free will and self-interest. I said this before and I will say it again; Android is on par with LAMP and GCC in terms of impact. It's not a piece of infrastructure software, it's a fundamental right for the mobile future, and will power far more dreams than any niche or specialty mobile platform, which iOS and the others are destined to be.
      - YooLi 16y ago
        In all fairness you are lumping a whole bunch of devices together. I have no doubt that Android will find its way into all sorts of products, much like other flavors of Linux already have. Most people have no idea that Linux is powering their network gear, web cams, etc., but they don't need to. No one thinks to themselves "wow, my microwave is using embedded Linux, I'm going to get a Linux notebook." Apple is making the best phone and tablet os that they can. That is their goal. If it means it's also the best in the market, then they will be rewarded by people buying their products. They haven't lost because iOS isn't being installed on a printer.
deleted 16y ago
[deleted]
tlrobinson 16y ago
"When he told me his primary uses of the tablet will be Google Docs, Gmail, and Google Calendar, I told him he'll be better off with Android." Or Chrome OS, if it ever ships.
- sushi 16y ago
  It does seem the Chrome OS will be out by the end of the year. http://techcrunch.com/2010/10/11/chrome-os-release/ http://techcrunch.com/2010/10/11/chrome-os-release/
- cryptoz 16y ago
  Chrome OS is supposed to ship in November. It has been that way for about a year now. I've heard this tone a lot lately, about Chrome OS not shipping. Nobody ever said it would arrive before Nov 2010...just be patient. Google will deliver as promised.
- nextparadigms 16y ago
  They said last year in November that Chrome OS will launch 1 year from then. Why were you expecting it earlier?
Mongoose 16y ago
One thing I'd like to see is Android have more of a presence in universities. It'd give CS students useful exposure to mobile development and allow them to put all of the Java that gets crammed down their throats to good use.
- RossM 16y ago
  I'm in my second year of a CS degree. We have a required module titled "Mobile Application Development" which from what I've heard is purely Android development. There is also an optional iPhone development module which is less popular due to the £120 Apple developer fee (I expect the people who take this module will be the ones who bring their shiny Macbooks to every lecture and complain loudly when asked to put them away). We had an email last year asking for input on which platform to develop on this year so it's also the students' decision to learn Android.
  - random42 16y ago
    I am actually surprised Apple would charge developer fees for academic purposes. Wont they be much better of creating future developers for their ecosystems, as compared to getting their wallet fatter by $120/student?
    - mattdonahoe 16y ago
      Free university licenses exist, though I think it needs to be set up by the institution http://developer.apple.com/programs/ios/university/ http://developer.apple.com/programs/ios/university/
  - Mongoose 16y ago
    That's good to hear. During my internship at Google this past summer, I mentioned to the university outreach folks that they should work with schools to emphasize Android in coursework. It'd be nice to have some enthusiasm coming downstream from Google on this one.
- moondistance 16y ago
nkurz 16y ago
I've heard the "fit and finish" argument frequently, both in print and in person as the owner of an HTC Incredible. I don't really see it myself, though. Sure there are a lot of junky looking 3rd party apps, but this is true of iPhone as well. Unlike early Windows vs Mac, I don't have this reaction to the base system. What are people reacting to when they say this? Or is it just a canned response?
- zzzmarcus 16y ago
  I'm a full-time Android developer. I alternate between using a Nexus One and an iPhone 4 as my main phones. One of the big differences is that iOS devices have hardware accelerated graphics. You don't really notice how weak transitions and animations are on Android until you get used to using an iPhone. It's a subtle difference, but it's real and it makes a difference. Other "fit and finish" advantages that the iPhone has: -The lack of a back button. On Android it's great in theory, but in practice it's unpredictable. Depending on where you are it might kick you out of the app you're in or it might take you up a level in the hierarchy or it might take you to the previous document you viewed. The iPhone is better for avoiding this ambiguous navigation. -A single place for storing apps. It's frustrating running out of space for apps on Android and having to worry about moving them to the SD card. On the iPhone you have games that are bigger than 1gb and you don't have to think twice about installing them or about where they go. -The iPhone's app store is still better than the Android Market. There are good apps in both, but the iPhone still makes it much easier to discover the best apps. Between having Genius, lists like top grossing and most downloaded, better categories, and better reviews it's just overall a nicer experience. -The iPhone's music player is better. It has the downside of requiring sync with iTunes but once you have your music on there it's much nicer. It's easier and faster to browse. It's got features like Genius and 2x speed for audiobooks and coverflow, which despite not being super useful, runs fast and smooth. -The iPhone's camera is faster than any Android device's camera I've tried. It makes a big difference when you're trying to capture a fleeting moment if the shutter lags half a second from the time you press the button. On the iPhone it's instantaneous. -It's a new feature on the iPhone, but folders for home screen icons is great. The default Android launcher feels outdated. All that having been said, there are a ton of nice things on Android. Built in voice nav is awesome, being able to share data between apps, the way intents are handled and the ability to set defaults is nice, and there are a ton of other things I love about Android, but since you asked about what people are talking about when they say the iPhone has fit and finish, these are the big ones in my opinion.
jscore 16y ago
I use a Nexus One as my daily phone since it came out in January, and it's hard to say whether Android software/hardware experience will ever catch up to Apple's standard. The touchscreen on the iPhone is state of the art, with my N1, I need to touch something once or twice, which never happens with iPhone. Same for keyboard on the iPhone, it's light years better than any of the dozens implementations for Android. I don't care for predictive text so much as just a great spell checker. Also compare the Facebook app on both phones. Android's is not there yet.
- nextparadigms 16y ago
  I believe they will 1-up the iPhone keyboard with this: http://blindtype.com/ http://blindtype.com/
- sandipc 16y ago
  Have you tried Swype?
  - jscore 16y ago
    I have, yes. I still prefer the iPhone keyboard.
- ergo98 16y ago
  "The touchscreen on the iPhone is state of the art, with my N1, I need to touch something once or twice, which never happens with iPhone." Apple didn't design their touchscreen (nor do they design their processor, RAM, display, wireless chipset, etc.). The Nexus One, it is very well known, has a weak capacitive touchscreen that is outclassed by any number of competing Android phones. This has nothing to do with Android versus the iPhone. "Same for keyboard on the iPhone, it's light years better than any of the dozens implementations for Android" Disagree entirely, but I suppose that's subjective. Then again, I can't stand touchscreens keyboards altogether. My preference is strongly weighted towards sliders. "Also compare the Facebook app on both phones. Android's is not there yet." But it's getting there. Quickly. I've been using Android phones since the G1. The quality improvements over the last 6 months have been incredible. Over the last 3 months has been exhilarating. Over the last 1 month has been unfathomable. Apps for Androids used to be an afterthought. Now anyone who thinks they're an afterthought is a fool -- they are now front and center (and, as a sidenote, it leveled the ground for competitors like Blackberry as well. Being an "iPhone only" mobile solution is a loser's game now, smelling as ignorant and backwards as being an IE-only website). They are rapidly evolving into a decent platform. Yeah, a year from now Android will easily match any fit and finish of the iPhone.
albertzeyer 16y ago
What Android tablet is he talking about? I don't know any comparable to the iPad.
- Yccma 16y ago
  I was about to ask the same question.... Maybe the Samsung Galaxy Tablet, which is not in the stores and could cost between $500 and $1000? I went from iPhone 3G to HTC Desire (Android 2.2) and really wish I'd waited for the iPhone 4G. Both hardware and software is inferior, do love the freedom from ITunes though... Bought the iPad two weeks ago, made my HTC Desire suck even more:/
- glhaynes 16y ago
  Yeah, what a bogus argument. "What if I could give you an iPad-equivalent for just 99 cents? And if you act now, I'll throw in a free pony."
  - greyman 16y ago
    Why bogus? The question is completely valid. The article suggested there is something comparable to iPad, only running on Android and costing $200...while the current reality is that only comparable tablet is Samsung galaxy pad, which is not yet in the stores, and is priced higher than Android. And no, Archos isn't there yet.
Caligula 16y ago
I have been debating fiddling wither win7 or android. What is a good android phone to test/develop with? Is the nexus still the best choice?
- stanleydrew 16y ago
  The Nexus One is absolutely still the best phone to develop and test with. I also happen to think it's the best phone for daily use.
- mahmud 16y ago
  You can start hacking Android without a phone. The emulator is just cool :-)
  - jawngee 16y ago
    The emulator is a dog. Compared to the iPhone anyways. It's useless for web development.
    - mahmud 16y ago
      How many platforms does the iPhone emulator run on? Is it instrumentable and controllable by user applications using nothing but sockets and octets? Didn't think so :-) Android emulator is slow to start, but it's cross-platform, and allows for hot-updating.
      - billjings 16y ago
        I have just about completely ditched the android emulator because it is irritatingly slow and I'm constantly finding it with its pants down trying to talk to eclipse. At our company we've also found that it doesn't give an accurate idea of how readable the text is in your interface, or how easy it is to interact with, partly because it's just too big on the screen and partly because it's sluggish. It is at its most useful when I want to pull a file from internal storage, which often isn't possible on a device, or when I don't have a device handy, in which case it is a passable solution. It's never, ever my first choice, though.
stakent 16y ago
Android phones, tablets, netbooks. Great choice of prices and features. Multiple hardware vendors. Open and friendly development ecosystem. Open market without one gatekeeper. Sales numbers accelerating month by month. It looks like the game is over. The winner is Android.
deleted 16y ago
[deleted]
jawngee 16y ago
Windows lacked the fit and finish of the Macintosh. But it didn't matter. Because there were hundreds of Windows machines whereas there was only a few variations of Macintosh, all controlled by the same company and priced at a premium. Windows is priced at a premium, you just don't feel it because the cost is rolled into the cost of whatever piece of kit you just bought. Is our memory so shallow as to forget the anti-trust methods that brought Windows to dominance? It wasn't because the market wanted it, it was because that's what was crammed down the throat of the market. And the most recent Android Foursquare build has finally delivered the awesome Foursquare iPhone experience to Android. That line sort of says it all, doesn't it? How many times have you heard that the other way? "delivered the awesome Android experience to the iPhone" - yeah probably never. I'm just bitter because I've been working on a html5 version of my site specifically for Android, and it's a major PITA. The 4 android phones I have all behave differently, the different OS versions have their own quirks and bugs. And the hardware, god the hardware! Awful.
- davidw 16y ago
  > Is our memory so shallow as to forget the anti-trust methods that brought Windows to dominance? It wasn't because the market wanted it, it was because that's what was crammed down the throat of the market. Yes, that came along eventually, but might I suggest a read of "20 years of high tech marketing disasters"? The author suggests that Microsoft came to dominate only thanks to other players in the market screwing up more than they did. IBM and Apple being amongst those who make the biggest mistakes. And I do not say that as a Microsoft fan. Once they did get an advantage, they used it for all it was worth, to try and expand their monopoly into market sectors. That is what they were convicted of.
  - gruseom 16y ago
    Quite right. The monopolist behavior came years after their original success, and doubtless in the minds of MS's leader(s) was no different from the scrappy competitiveness they had always practiced. MS were smart, but also lucky in their competitors. Digital Research deserves a place of honor on your list. And most things I've read about Netscape seem like they were so afraid of being killed by MS that they killed themselves instead.
jwr 16y ago
I find it interesting that most people who like Android like it in the future tense. Android is always great, but in that next version, that is just around the corner. That upcoming tablet, that upcoming phone, that upcoming software.
- gaius 16y ago
  This is the year of the Linux tablet!
- borism 16y ago
  I don't know what people you talk to, but the current article clearly talks in present tense.
  - GHFigs 16y ago
    e.g. I asked him if he'd pay $199 for an Android tablet. He said "where can I get one"? The punchline is "Nowhere."
    - arst 16y ago
      Sub-$200 Android tablets: http://www.kmart.com/shc/s/p_10151_10104_020W023705190001P?vName=Computers%20&%20Electronics&cName=Laptops&sName=Tablets&sid=KDx20070926x00003a&ci_src=14110944&ci_sku=020W023705190001P http://www.kmart.com/shc/s/p_10151_10104_020W023705190001P?v... http://www.amazon.com/Archos-Home-Tablet-Android-Black/dp/B003COZM2C/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1287259600&sr=8-1 http://www.amazon.com/Archos-Home-Tablet-Android-Black/dp/B0...
      - irons 16y ago
        Neither of those even works out of the box with the Android Market. Even with wishing and hoping and squinting, it's not credible to put them in the same product category as the iPad. A some-assembly-required golf cart can't substitute for a two-seater sedan.
      - netcan 16y ago
moultano 16y ago
It's already massively outselling the iPhone. Do we even need to speculate that it's going to be an important platform for a long time?
- andrewljohnson 16y ago
  Nokia dumbphones massively outsell iPhones too, but as far as developers are concerned, the only real game in town is iPhone development. Android apps don't make nearly as much money for us mobile developers, and device sales aren't going to solve that problem alone. So yeah, speculation is warranted. I'm deeply embroiled in the market, and I think the jury is out.
  - moultano 16y ago
    Do they also have a positive derivative?
    - andrewljohnson 16y ago
      So confused by your question :)
pkaler 16y ago
I know of no Android tablet available in the $199 price range. Someone please point one out if one exists. The argument that Windows won because Macintosh was priced at a premium is a dubious argument. Apple is able to purchase flash memory, processors, and touch screens in bulk. They own Intrinisty and PA Semiconductor. Apple looks like Walmart on their supply side and looks like Barney's on the retail side. There is no price pressure. They could slash their margins but they don't have to. It's still difficult to find an iPad and iPhone 4. They can't make enough of them. Secondly, 95% market share is unnatural. It doesn't happen often. Markets look more like GM/Chrysler/Ford or XBox/PlayStation/Wii. I suspect the smartphone market will develop similarly. And if you want to say that the iPhone will be crushed like the Macintosh was crushed by Windows then it is just as easy to say that Android will be crushed the same way Sun Microsystems and Novell were crushed when Eric Schmidt was there.
- miratrix 16y ago
  Looks like Archos has a 7 inch tablet that they sell for $199, though it doesn't have 3G access. Archos has been around for a while and are known to build fairly solid hardware, so this isn't some drive-by-night operation hawking crap on late-night informercial either. http://www.archos.com/products/ht/index.html?country=us&lang=en http://www.archos.com/products/ht/index.html?country=us&... edit: er, apparently it still runs android 1.5...
  - mgkimsal 16y ago
    I still can't just walk in to major stores and get these. I can go to Apple stores, or Best Buy, and now target, to get an ipad (and Best Buy, AT&T, etc stores for iPhones). :( And, yeah, you pointed out the 1.5 issue. Google needs to do a better job of getting Android licensees to update their versions. There should be no one selling a new device in October 2010 only running 1.5. edit: I can't walk in to stores in my area. Some stores report they have some archos tablets, but they're generally not there when I go.
    - thaumaturgy 16y ago
waterlesscloud 16y ago
I keep putting off doing anything on android because of java. I don't know java, and I don't really want to learn it. I suppose I will give in eventually, for android, but it will be grudgingly.
- code_duck 16y ago
  I understand Scala works fine for Android, too, which is much more attractive than working with Java.
  - veeti 16y ago
    I've always wondered how many apps there are on the Market using Scala - I've never heard of one and it would be interesting to try writing my next one in it.
    - code_duck 16y ago
      There's a small discussion here - http://www.reddit.com/r/scala/comments/dqbiu/scala_on_android/ http://www.reddit.com/r/scala/comments/dqbiu/scala_on_androi... Apparently bu.mp's Android app is written in Scala.
- tomjen3 16y ago
  If you don't know Java, what do you have against it?
  - waterlesscloud 16y ago
    To some extent it's aesthetic. Java seems bureaucratic and verbose and just...clunky. Part of this is just where I'm coming from. I started programming as a kid with basic, then assembly, like most programmers my age. Then pascal and C in college, got a job doing C++ and did that for a number of years. Dabbled in a working in php at the end of that, seemed a little sloppy as a language. Then I just stopped programming for a long while. Did other things for a living, other things for hobbies. I'd burned out on programming because I wasn't doing the sorts of things I wanted to be doing with it. Now I'm getting back into it and I just don't have any interest in Java. It feels like it's designed for slow, plodding steps, and writing code in it feels like I'm doing a lot of favors for the language rather than working on something interesting. Right now I'm building small stuff in Python and dabbling in Clojure. Python lets me feel like the language is not at all a source of friction. I write the code as fast as I know what the code should be doing. Java does not feel like that at all. It's got its limitations, and there's certain things I'd drop back into C for if I wanted to do them, but Python is a language I can almost ignore while I'm using it, if that makes sense. Clojure is a whole different animal, and I'm mostly using it to stretch my brain a bit. Get some concepts I'd like to learn.
akamaka 16y ago
Windows lacked the fit and finish of the Macintosh. But it didn't matter. Because there were hundreds of Windows machines whereas there was only a few variations of Macintosh... This has long been the conventional wisdom, but given recent history, I'm less and less convinced that it's true. There's a myriad of other factors to consider, like hardware decisions, marketing strategies, and much more. It's really quite imprudent to bet on Android for only that reason.
- protomyth 16y ago
  I sometimes wonder if Novell didn't help Microsoft in the business market more than seems to get reported. Novell provided a pretty good (for the time) networking solution that allowed decent management.
thought_alarm 16y ago
But the iPhone and iPad aren't priced at a premium. Anyway, it's a mistake pit Google against Apple. The real battle will be between Google and Microsoft for the exact same hardware manufacturers and sales channels. (Meanwhile, you can buy an iPad from an Apple Store or from Walmart without any carrier involvement). Google hasn't managed the fragmentation problem very well, they haven't done enough to control the quality the Android OS between carriers and manufacturers, and they've utterly mismanaged the Android Market. I'm no fan of Microsoft or WinMo 7, but I expect Microsoft to do a much better job at addressing all of those issues. Microsoft can also leverage their Zune desktop software. And Microsoft's development tools are generally very popular with developers. I've done some work with WPF and I found it very impressive and I would expect their Phone SDK to be of similar quality. On the other hand, even though I generally like Java I'm finding the move from iPhone development to Android development to be a depressing step backwards both in terms of the dev tools and especially the SDK. Then again, it is Microsoft we're talking about. It may take them another 3 or 6 years to get it right.
- naner 16y ago
  And Microsoft's development tools are generally very popular with developers. Yes, very popular with .NET developers. That's the problem with Microsoft, everything is coupled together and isolated from anything non-Microsoft. You're usually either a .NET developer or an everything-else developer. Everyone else has free development tools/environments. Everyone else has vibrant online communities. Everyone else shares and collaborates with open source projects (strategically at least).
  - akho 16y ago
    StackOverflow is somewhat .NET-biased, and it’s probably the most vibrant online community available. Mono provides a free development tool/environment built around skills easily transferred to .NET. Microsoft even occasionally collaborates with Mono. Also, “everything is coupled together” occasionally becomes a feature. However, what do I know — I haven’t ever used a Microsoft OS on a computer I control. .NET seems nice, though.
GHFigs 16y ago
Because there were hundreds of Windows machines whereas there was only a few variations of Macintosh, all controlled by the same company and priced at a premium. By this formula, one ought to have been bullish about PlaysForSure--a platform with over a dozen music stores and compatible player devices from almost two dozen vendors. But we saw what happened there: the platform was beaten by a single store with a few variations of player all controlled by the same company and priced at a premium. Neither example is strongly predictive, but I think this one is a bit more relevant, for reasons which should be obvious.
jsz0 16y ago
I hate when people cheer lead for one particular gigantic corporation to own the market History shows that isn't very good for consumers. Why not cheer lead for a healthy diverse market with lots of competition?
- megablast 16y ago
  Most of us do, just the fanboys are louder and more rabid.
- tomjen3 16y ago
  As a developer you want to target only on phone, and you then want that phone to have as wide a market-share as possible, so you will have more people who can buy your app. As a user, you want to buy only one phone and then want that phone to have as wide a market-share as possible so there will be more apps for it. As a competing phone manufacture you are outnumbered, so it doesn't matter what you want.
- guyjin 16y ago
  'cuz i like what I have and I want it to be successful.
tjr 16y ago
Five years ago I think I had some Samsung phone, maybe; I don't remember for sure. Or that might have been the year that I first got a Palm Treo. I went through three Palm Treos because they kept failing. Maybe the iPhone, or Android, or both, will still be with us long-term. Maybe not. I don't really get majorly attached to my mobile phone; if the iPhone isn't the most totally awesomest phone for me next time I get a new one, then maybe I'll get something else, and leave the iPhone as a distant memory, along with the Samsungs, and the Motorolas, and the pile of defunct Palm Treos. (For that matter, I already have my original iPhone stuffed away somewhere, while my shiny new iPhone 4 is in active use...)
protomyth 16y ago
The one thing I really don't get about this type of article is the predictions based on a management team that isn't at the company. Apple's current management team was behind the iPod strategy and inherited an already niche market with the Macintosh. I don't look to the actions of Thomas Edison to determine what GE next strategy will be. With the iPod they started with a "high" price and introduced models that filled in the low-end. They also built and ecosystem around it. Also, this "there-can-be-only-one" crud doesn't really happen in many markets.
ndl 16y ago
Ever since "losing" to Microsoft on the desktop, Apple have slowly perfected their strategy for being the smaller alternative. They find the most lucrative niche and design to the point where they can own that piece of the market. Built into Apple products is a sense of superiority, the feeling that the rest of the world is jealous and frustrated. It's in their ads, and its in their users. This has shown its effectiveness in the computer market, and it will probably make them a ton of money on the mobile scene as well. But Apple didn't have to do this in the mobile world. The iPhone was the default smartphone. I was once talking with a rather avid iPhone user who he asked me "what's the market for Android?" I fina;ly convinced him that it could be everyone when I replied, "what's the market for Windows?" The iPhone is a product. It has a target niche, a company behind it, a list of features, and everything else one expects. Android is not - it's a platform. The Droid is a product. The Nexus one is a different product. Like Windows, Android twists and bends to the offerings of each vendor. Android has the more scalable long tail strategy - instead of trying to please your customers directly, let the market mold your product into as many forms as it will pay for. I don't think that Apple have necessarily screwed up. They may have given up the big fish, and they may have had a reason. For one, Apple are doing what they're best at. They also may have a strategy that integrates with the Mac. They may also be right. Maybe the mobile phone isn't the next computer. Maybe it's like the iPod, best at doing one thing very well. I think Apple is making a mistake in breaking developer trust. As long as they keep market dominance, people will keep coming back to them, but as the numbers show, Android is poised to surpass. When there are many more Androids out there than iPhones, iPhone dev is gonna be a tough sell.
- irons 16y ago
  When there are many more Androids out there than iPhones, iPhone dev is gonna be a tough sell. What do you think the ratio of Android-to-iOS installed base is going to have to be before the median Android developer is making as much money as the median iOS developer? To get to that point, how many significantly different Android devices is an Android developer going to be expected to target? Looking at this market through the context of the PC wars of the 90s is a mistake, as is assuming that developer allegiance is a function of handset sales.
code_duck 16y ago
I've noticed that too, that Google seems to have created the Windows of mobile phones, while Apple, of course, is the Apple of mobile phones. So, where does that leave Microsoft?
stcredzero 16y ago
It's inevitable that the mobile phone backed by the cloud is going to take the place of the Personal Computer. A pocket sized device will be your personal computer. Larger form factors will only exist to provide input and display facilities that can't live in the pocket-sized one.
deleted 16y ago
[deleted]
deleted 16y ago
[deleted]
mjfern 16y ago
This article by Fred Wilson (AVC) highlights the rise of Android and ARM as the dominant players (and standard) in the next wave of computing (along with Apple and others as strong niche players). For the last several decades, the Wintel standard has dominated personal computing (PC). If we look at current market share data, Microsoft’s and Intel’s position in the PC market appears unassailable. As of September 2010, the Windows OS controlled 91% of the PC market (Net Applications, 2010), while Intel microprocessors controlled just over 80% (IDC, 2010). But what if personal computing is shifting away from desktops and packaged applications, the stronghold of Windows and Intel, to a combination of “thin devices,” cloud computing, and online media? Thin devices are smartphones, tablets, connected televisions, and a myriad of other devices that connect to the cloud to access various online media, from video to social networking. In view of this transition, the future actually looks quite bleak for Microsoft and Intel, despite their strong position in the PC market. Microsoft has struggled mightily in the smartphone and online media markets, and is reluctant to aggressively enter the cloud in fear that it will cannibalize sales of Windows and Office. Meanwhile Intel has struggled to produce microprocessors that appeal to thin device OEMs, where energy efficiency is prioritized over sheer computing power. If Microsoft and Intel, and the Wintel standard are fading, then which companies and which standards are rising? Apple has been pushing the frontier in computing with its collection of thin devices (iPod Touch, iPhone, iPad, the Apple TV) and its media platforms (iTunes and the App Store). Google has also invested substantially in these new computing markets with Android on thin devices (smartphones, tablets, smartbooks, set-top boxes, and connected televisions) and Google’s growing suite of cloud services (e.g., Gmail, Maps, YouTube, Android Market). Looking at current trends, it appears that the diffusion of Android and ARM may be accelerating past competitors. Recent NPD and Nielsen data indicate that Android sales have now overtaken Apple’s iOS and Blackberry’s RIM in the smartphone market. And analyst Paul Morland of KBC Peel Hunt estimates ARM’s market share in microprocessors will increase from 29% to 40% from 2010-2014. Meanwhile Android and ARM are on the cusp of rising in emerging device markets, such as tablets and connected televisions. If the last several decades of personal computing was dominated by the Wintel standard, with AMD and Apple as the scrappy competitors. It appears the future of computing may be dominated by Armdroid (or a slight variant based on the Google Chrome OS), with Apple and several others as strong niche players. Of course there will be other companies that will rise and sustain their position as dominant players in other segments of computing, from enterprise cloud services (e.g., Salesforce.com) to online video (e.g., Netflix), and online retail (e.g., Amazon). I just posted this to my blog and submitted the post to HN. If you enjoyed the read, I'd appreciate an upvote (the article title is "Armdroid"). Thanks!
netcan 16y ago
An interesting thing that comes out in a lot of these topics is how people are historical determinists when it come to tech platforms. "The way OS wars work is..." To me it seems like so much is different that I'd be very hesitant to have such a strong opinion. The players are established companies, it's phones and tablets (cheaper devices with shorter lives), the web is the killer app, software development is easier (in many ways), it's twenty years later....
- SwellJoe 16y ago
  And yet Apple have been making the same mistakes they made during the original PC wars.
  - netcan 16y ago
    That's what I'm talking about (or are you being disingenuous). Calling them mistakes (I assume you mean creating the more closed environment) is assuming that OS wars inevitably play out a certain way.
    - SwellJoe 16y ago
      I'm not sure what could be interpreted as disingenuous about my comment. Openness is not a tactic of any particular war. It is simply the best thing for consumers and developers. The notion that openness doesn't matter in this "war" just because the devices look different and the battleground is the web, is nonsensical. I would argue that openness matters even more now than it did in the late 80s and early 90s, because the form factors are more widely varied, and the number of people who can directly participate is dramatically higher. Regardless of Apple fanboyism and arguments about the war being "different this time", Android is already winning. There are more Android phones shipping than iPhones.
      - netcan 16y ago
        hey. hey. I'm on no particular side of anything. I'm not arguing that openness doesn't matter. I can't figure out where you got that. Of course you can argue that openness is more important. My observation is that when people do make those kind of arguments they make a sort of a deterministic argument surprisingly often. Incidentally, the rest of this thread is a good place to make your argument that android is already winning.
fredwilson 16y ago
wow great conversation i am just seeing this now i wish disqus could pick up this entire discussion and post it into the comments on my blog it would greatly enrich the conversation there and i would be able to engage in real time, not a day later

168 points by okeumeni 16y ago

srwh 16y ago

We discussed this before... but... what if Microsoft developer tools are better than Apple (xcode) and Android (eclipse) ? what if any guy can develop some software in a few days while doing the same for Android and the Apple takes 2x o 3x? what if Silverlight experience is better than html5 or native UIs? And... what if connecting games between desktop, xbox and mobile works? Many "What IFs", but for me the developing tools and silverlight are key. Also on the RIM side QNX is a very promising bet against Linux/iOS/Windows, the demo doesn't feel real, but QNX is a strong OS.

mahmud 16y ago
Have you written code for Android? To make it any easier, you would have to advance the state of IDE and language integration by a few decades. Sure, it doesn't let you draw widgets by hand and attach callbacks all in an instant, like Visual Basic, but, for an API, it the simplest, most obvious thing you can imagine. And FWIW, I do my Android hacking with emacs and a shell buffer.
- endtime 16y ago
  I haven't seen the Android docs, but for building an app with a GUI I genuinely can't think of anything better than the WinPhone7 SDK.
  - mahmud 16y ago
    What do you think makes WP7 superior to Android? Please be as detailed as you can; this is not an argument, it's a feature request :-) A million lurking volunteers, bored but capable as they are, will take it upon themselves to improve Android before Google gets around to it (it's a vicious race for good hacks.)
    - tomerico 16y ago
      I can share my experience from developing with Silverlight and c# for a few years (Though for the past year I've developed exclusively in java). First of all the language. c#, especially in the latest iterations has become incredible. Featuring the goodness of both statically and dynamically typed languages. It has become very elegant and powerful. Sadly, I can't say anything similar on Java. Is has been very slow to advance, very conservative when advancing, and the tools are still so slow (At least eclipse). Regarding GUI development on Silverlight. Microsoft has done many things right with it. It has the best separation of UI and logic that I have seen built right into it. They have xml files to represent the UI (In the same way web has HTML), and the framework is as flexibly as could be (e.g. it wouldn't take you more than a minute to create a scrollbar that looks like a clock for example (If you have the graphics ready). And the most important of all - they have a UI editor built for DESIGNERS. It encourages you to worry about the UI look and feel, and not on the logic behind it. It has tools in it from the designers world, and encapsulate a lot of headaches (E.g. setting a gradient direction is done by dragging a line over the area, and not by setting some numbers). In addition, Silverlight has the advantage of being a second generation after WPF. Microsoft has learned from its mistakes with WPF, and simplified Silverlight dramatically. They could do that because Silverlight was a new technology which didn't have the requirement to be backward compatible.
      - mahmud 16y ago
        Excellent! Android allows you to define your UI in XML as well[1]. It's not that novel, Flex does the same thing too. But not to be too dismissive, it would nice to hear of experts in both to tell us what Android might be lacking. Regards UI editor, yes, Android doesn't have any WYSIWYG UI editors. There is one, but it's 3rd party and not as polished as you describe MS's to be. -- [1]http://developer.android.com/guide/topics/ui/index.html http://developer.android.com/guide/topics/ui/index.html
        kenjackson 16y ago
        With respect to Android vs WP7 controls is the lookless nature of Silverlight controls. This allows you to completely reskin and add new behavior to an existing control while maintaining all of its current behavior.
- gecko 16y ago
  I kind of passionately disagree. I think that both Apple and Microsoft's tools blow Android's out of the water. Objective-C and C# are more pleasant languages; the graphics libraries are in vastly better shape (ever wonder why Android scrolling blows so much compared to iPhone?); tools for profiling and the like are vastly better; etc. Android's tools don't suck, but I think they're objectively inferior to Apple's and Microsoft's across the board.
  - mahmud 16y ago
    True. And private gardens are superior to public parks. Android at least has garbage collection .. native C interface, and it's open to you as your mother's arms. If Android lacks anything, it's only a matter of time before it's fixed. The cat is out of the bag, and the OS of the mobile future is Google's as much as it's yours and mine. For every polished iPhone handset sold, there are three crappy but wide-open android devices sold to hungry minds. iPhone is the best mobile OS today, in terms of polish and usability, but Android powers devices that haven't been conceived yet! Poor grad students in EE and CS are all over the mailing-lists, asking for help with Android ports to their cheap boards. They're ambitious, confused, tired and hungry. They don't know what they're doing .. yet. They're just making use of what they have, a Free OS that does the basics. However, said students, amateurs, wannabes and beginners number in the millions .. the little busy bees are hard at work, reading, writing, and hacking, and in five years time, when they know better, when they're more capable, when they graduate and funded, you can bet your last dime they will make this a Free Android world. Neither Apple nor Microsoft have enough money to buy people's free will and self-interest. I said this before and I will say it again; Android is on par with LAMP and GCC in terms of impact. It's not a piece of infrastructure software, it's a fundamental right for the mobile future, and will power far more dreams than any niche or specialty mobile platform, which iOS and the others are destined to be.
    - YooLi 16y ago
      In all fairness you are lumping a whole bunch of devices together. I have no doubt that Android will find its way into all sorts of products, much like other flavors of Linux already have. Most people have no idea that Linux is powering their network gear, web cams, etc., but they don't need to. No one thinks to themselves "wow, my microwave is using embedded Linux, I'm going to get a Linux notebook." Apple is making the best phone and tablet os that they can. That is their goal. If it means it's also the best in the market, then they will be rewarded by people buying their products. They haven't lost because iOS isn't being installed on a printer.

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

tlrobinson 16y ago

"When he told me his primary uses of the tablet will be Google Docs, Gmail, and Google Calendar, I told him he'll be better off with Android." Or Chrome OS, if it ever ships.

sushi 16y ago
It does seem the Chrome OS will be out by the end of the year. http://techcrunch.com/2010/10/11/chrome-os-release/ http://techcrunch.com/2010/10/11/chrome-os-release/
cryptoz 16y ago
Chrome OS is supposed to ship in November. It has been that way for about a year now. I've heard this tone a lot lately, about Chrome OS not shipping. Nobody ever said it would arrive before Nov 2010...just be patient. Google will deliver as promised.
nextparadigms 16y ago
They said last year in November that Chrome OS will launch 1 year from then. Why were you expecting it earlier?

Mongoose 16y ago

One thing I'd like to see is Android have more of a presence in universities. It'd give CS students useful exposure to mobile development and allow them to put all of the Java that gets crammed down their throats to good use.

RossM 16y ago
I'm in my second year of a CS degree. We have a required module titled "Mobile Application Development" which from what I've heard is purely Android development. There is also an optional iPhone development module which is less popular due to the £120 Apple developer fee (I expect the people who take this module will be the ones who bring their shiny Macbooks to every lecture and complain loudly when asked to put them away). We had an email last year asking for input on which platform to develop on this year so it's also the students' decision to learn Android.
- random42 16y ago
  I am actually surprised Apple would charge developer fees for academic purposes. Wont they be much better of creating future developers for their ecosystems, as compared to getting their wallet fatter by $120/student?
  - mattdonahoe 16y ago
    Free university licenses exist, though I think it needs to be set up by the institution http://developer.apple.com/programs/ios/university/ http://developer.apple.com/programs/ios/university/
- Mongoose 16y ago
  That's good to hear. During my internship at Google this past summer, I mentioned to the university outreach folks that they should work with schools to emphasize Android in coursework. It'd be nice to have some enthusiasm coming downstream from Google on this one.
moondistance 16y ago

nkurz 16y ago

I've heard the "fit and finish" argument frequently, both in print and in person as the owner of an HTC Incredible. I don't really see it myself, though. Sure there are a lot of junky looking 3rd party apps, but this is true of iPhone as well. Unlike early Windows vs Mac, I don't have this reaction to the base system. What are people reacting to when they say this? Or is it just a canned response?

zzzmarcus 16y ago
I'm a full-time Android developer. I alternate between using a Nexus One and an iPhone 4 as my main phones. One of the big differences is that iOS devices have hardware accelerated graphics. You don't really notice how weak transitions and animations are on Android until you get used to using an iPhone. It's a subtle difference, but it's real and it makes a difference. Other "fit and finish" advantages that the iPhone has: -The lack of a back button. On Android it's great in theory, but in practice it's unpredictable. Depending on where you are it might kick you out of the app you're in or it might take you up a level in the hierarchy or it might take you to the previous document you viewed. The iPhone is better for avoiding this ambiguous navigation. -A single place for storing apps. It's frustrating running out of space for apps on Android and having to worry about moving them to the SD card. On the iPhone you have games that are bigger than 1gb and you don't have to think twice about installing them or about where they go. -The iPhone's app store is still better than the Android Market. There are good apps in both, but the iPhone still makes it much easier to discover the best apps. Between having Genius, lists like top grossing and most downloaded, better categories, and better reviews it's just overall a nicer experience. -The iPhone's music player is better. It has the downside of requiring sync with iTunes but once you have your music on there it's much nicer. It's easier and faster to browse. It's got features like Genius and 2x speed for audiobooks and coverflow, which despite not being super useful, runs fast and smooth. -The iPhone's camera is faster than any Android device's camera I've tried. It makes a big difference when you're trying to capture a fleeting moment if the shutter lags half a second from the time you press the button. On the iPhone it's instantaneous. -It's a new feature on the iPhone, but folders for home screen icons is great. The default Android launcher feels outdated. All that having been said, there are a ton of nice things on Android. Built in voice nav is awesome, being able to share data between apps, the way intents are handled and the ability to set defaults is nice, and there are a ton of other things I love about Android, but since you asked about what people are talking about when they say the iPhone has fit and finish, these are the big ones in my opinion.

jscore 16y ago

I use a Nexus One as my daily phone since it came out in January, and it's hard to say whether Android software/hardware experience will ever catch up to Apple's standard. The touchscreen on the iPhone is state of the art, with my N1, I need to touch something once or twice, which never happens with iPhone. Same for keyboard on the iPhone, it's light years better than any of the dozens implementations for Android. I don't care for predictive text so much as just a great spell checker. Also compare the Facebook app on both phones. Android's is not there yet.

nextparadigms 16y ago
I believe they will 1-up the iPhone keyboard with this: http://blindtype.com/ http://blindtype.com/
sandipc 16y ago
Have you tried Swype?
- jscore 16y ago
  I have, yes. I still prefer the iPhone keyboard.
ergo98 16y ago
"The touchscreen on the iPhone is state of the art, with my N1, I need to touch something once or twice, which never happens with iPhone." Apple didn't design their touchscreen (nor do they design their processor, RAM, display, wireless chipset, etc.). The Nexus One, it is very well known, has a weak capacitive touchscreen that is outclassed by any number of competing Android phones. This has nothing to do with Android versus the iPhone. "Same for keyboard on the iPhone, it's light years better than any of the dozens implementations for Android" Disagree entirely, but I suppose that's subjective. Then again, I can't stand touchscreens keyboards altogether. My preference is strongly weighted towards sliders. "Also compare the Facebook app on both phones. Android's is not there yet." But it's getting there. Quickly. I've been using Android phones since the G1. The quality improvements over the last 6 months have been incredible. Over the last 3 months has been exhilarating. Over the last 1 month has been unfathomable. Apps for Androids used to be an afterthought. Now anyone who thinks they're an afterthought is a fool -- they are now front and center (and, as a sidenote, it leveled the ground for competitors like Blackberry as well. Being an "iPhone only" mobile solution is a loser's game now, smelling as ignorant and backwards as being an IE-only website). They are rapidly evolving into a decent platform. Yeah, a year from now Android will easily match any fit and finish of the iPhone.

albertzeyer 16y ago

What Android tablet is he talking about? I don't know any comparable to the iPad.

Yccma 16y ago
I was about to ask the same question.... Maybe the Samsung Galaxy Tablet, which is not in the stores and could cost between $500 and $1000? I went from iPhone 3G to HTC Desire (Android 2.2) and really wish I'd waited for the iPhone 4G. Both hardware and software is inferior, do love the freedom from ITunes though... Bought the iPad two weeks ago, made my HTC Desire suck even more:/
glhaynes 16y ago
Yeah, what a bogus argument. "What if I could give you an iPad-equivalent for just 99 cents? And if you act now, I'll throw in a free pony."
- greyman 16y ago
  Why bogus? The question is completely valid. The article suggested there is something comparable to iPad, only running on Android and costing $200...while the current reality is that only comparable tablet is Samsung galaxy pad, which is not yet in the stores, and is priced higher than Android. And no, Archos isn't there yet.

Caligula 16y ago

I have been debating fiddling wither win7 or android. What is a good android phone to test/develop with? Is the nexus still the best choice?

stanleydrew 16y ago
The Nexus One is absolutely still the best phone to develop and test with. I also happen to think it's the best phone for daily use.
mahmud 16y ago
You can start hacking Android without a phone. The emulator is just cool :-)
- jawngee 16y ago
  The emulator is a dog. Compared to the iPhone anyways. It's useless for web development.
  - mahmud 16y ago
    How many platforms does the iPhone emulator run on? Is it instrumentable and controllable by user applications using nothing but sockets and octets? Didn't think so :-) Android emulator is slow to start, but it's cross-platform, and allows for hot-updating.
    - billjings 16y ago
      I have just about completely ditched the android emulator because it is irritatingly slow and I'm constantly finding it with its pants down trying to talk to eclipse. At our company we've also found that it doesn't give an accurate idea of how readable the text is in your interface, or how easy it is to interact with, partly because it's just too big on the screen and partly because it's sluggish. It is at its most useful when I want to pull a file from internal storage, which often isn't possible on a device, or when I don't have a device handy, in which case it is a passable solution. It's never, ever my first choice, though.

stakent 16y ago

Android phones, tablets, netbooks. Great choice of prices and features. Multiple hardware vendors. Open and friendly development ecosystem. Open market without one gatekeeper. Sales numbers accelerating month by month. It looks like the game is over. The winner is Android.

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

jawngee 16y ago

Windows lacked the fit and finish of the Macintosh. But it didn't matter. Because there were hundreds of Windows machines whereas there was only a few variations of Macintosh, all controlled by the same company and priced at a premium. Windows is priced at a premium, you just don't feel it because the cost is rolled into the cost of whatever piece of kit you just bought. Is our memory so shallow as to forget the anti-trust methods that brought Windows to dominance? It wasn't because the market wanted it, it was because that's what was crammed down the throat of the market. And the most recent Android Foursquare build has finally delivered the awesome Foursquare iPhone experience to Android. That line sort of says it all, doesn't it? How many times have you heard that the other way? "delivered the awesome Android experience to the iPhone" - yeah probably never. I'm just bitter because I've been working on a html5 version of my site specifically for Android, and it's a major PITA. The 4 android phones I have all behave differently, the different OS versions have their own quirks and bugs. And the hardware, god the hardware! Awful.

davidw 16y ago
> Is our memory so shallow as to forget the anti-trust methods that brought Windows to dominance? It wasn't because the market wanted it, it was because that's what was crammed down the throat of the market. Yes, that came along eventually, but might I suggest a read of "20 years of high tech marketing disasters"? The author suggests that Microsoft came to dominate only thanks to other players in the market screwing up more than they did. IBM and Apple being amongst those who make the biggest mistakes. And I do not say that as a Microsoft fan. Once they did get an advantage, they used it for all it was worth, to try and expand their monopoly into market sectors. That is what they were convicted of.
- gruseom 16y ago
  Quite right. The monopolist behavior came years after their original success, and doubtless in the minds of MS's leader(s) was no different from the scrappy competitiveness they had always practiced. MS were smart, but also lucky in their competitors. Digital Research deserves a place of honor on your list. And most things I've read about Netscape seem like they were so afraid of being killed by MS that they killed themselves instead.

jwr 16y ago

I find it interesting that most people who like Android like it in the future tense. Android is always great, but in that next version, that is just around the corner. That upcoming tablet, that upcoming phone, that upcoming software.

gaius 16y ago
This is the year of the Linux tablet!
borism 16y ago
I don't know what people you talk to, but the current article clearly talks in present tense.
- GHFigs 16y ago
  e.g. I asked him if he'd pay $199 for an Android tablet. He said "where can I get one"? The punchline is "Nowhere."
  - arst 16y ago
    Sub-$200 Android tablets: http://www.kmart.com/shc/s/p_10151_10104_020W023705190001P?vName=Computers%20&%20Electronics&cName=Laptops&sName=Tablets&sid=KDx20070926x00003a&ci_src=14110944&ci_sku=020W023705190001P http://www.kmart.com/shc/s/p_10151_10104_020W023705190001P?v... http://www.amazon.com/Archos-Home-Tablet-Android-Black/dp/B003COZM2C/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1287259600&sr=8-1 http://www.amazon.com/Archos-Home-Tablet-Android-Black/dp/B0...
    - irons 16y ago
      Neither of those even works out of the box with the Android Market. Even with wishing and hoping and squinting, it's not credible to put them in the same product category as the iPad. A some-assembly-required golf cart can't substitute for a two-seater sedan.
    - netcan 16y ago

moultano 16y ago

It's already massively outselling the iPhone. Do we even need to speculate that it's going to be an important platform for a long time?

andrewljohnson 16y ago
Nokia dumbphones massively outsell iPhones too, but as far as developers are concerned, the only real game in town is iPhone development. Android apps don't make nearly as much money for us mobile developers, and device sales aren't going to solve that problem alone. So yeah, speculation is warranted. I'm deeply embroiled in the market, and I think the jury is out.
- moultano 16y ago
  Do they also have a positive derivative?
  - andrewljohnson 16y ago
    So confused by your question :)

pkaler 16y ago

I know of no Android tablet available in the $199 price range. Someone please point one out if one exists. The argument that Windows won because Macintosh was priced at a premium is a dubious argument. Apple is able to purchase flash memory, processors, and touch screens in bulk. They own Intrinisty and PA Semiconductor. Apple looks like Walmart on their supply side and looks like Barney's on the retail side. There is no price pressure. They could slash their margins but they don't have to. It's still difficult to find an iPad and iPhone 4. They can't make enough of them. Secondly, 95% market share is unnatural. It doesn't happen often. Markets look more like GM/Chrysler/Ford or XBox/PlayStation/Wii. I suspect the smartphone market will develop similarly. And if you want to say that the iPhone will be crushed like the Macintosh was crushed by Windows then it is just as easy to say that Android will be crushed the same way Sun Microsystems and Novell were crushed when Eric Schmidt was there.

miratrix 16y ago
Looks like Archos has a 7 inch tablet that they sell for $199, though it doesn't have 3G access. Archos has been around for a while and are known to build fairly solid hardware, so this isn't some drive-by-night operation hawking crap on late-night informercial either. http://www.archos.com/products/ht/index.html?country=us&lang=en http://www.archos.com/products/ht/index.html?country=us&... edit: er, apparently it still runs android 1.5...
- mgkimsal 16y ago
  I still can't just walk in to major stores and get these. I can go to Apple stores, or Best Buy, and now target, to get an ipad (and Best Buy, AT&T, etc stores for iPhones). :( And, yeah, you pointed out the 1.5 issue. Google needs to do a better job of getting Android licensees to update their versions. There should be no one selling a new device in October 2010 only running 1.5. edit: I can't walk in to stores in my area. Some stores report they have some archos tablets, but they're generally not there when I go.
  - thaumaturgy 16y ago

waterlesscloud 16y ago

I keep putting off doing anything on android because of java. I don't know java, and I don't really want to learn it. I suppose I will give in eventually, for android, but it will be grudgingly.

code_duck 16y ago
I understand Scala works fine for Android, too, which is much more attractive than working with Java.
- veeti 16y ago
  I've always wondered how many apps there are on the Market using Scala - I've never heard of one and it would be interesting to try writing my next one in it.
  - code_duck 16y ago
    There's a small discussion here - http://www.reddit.com/r/scala/comments/dqbiu/scala_on_android/ http://www.reddit.com/r/scala/comments/dqbiu/scala_on_androi... Apparently bu.mp's Android app is written in Scala.
tomjen3 16y ago
If you don't know Java, what do you have against it?
- waterlesscloud 16y ago
  To some extent it's aesthetic. Java seems bureaucratic and verbose and just...clunky. Part of this is just where I'm coming from. I started programming as a kid with basic, then assembly, like most programmers my age. Then pascal and C in college, got a job doing C++ and did that for a number of years. Dabbled in a working in php at the end of that, seemed a little sloppy as a language. Then I just stopped programming for a long while. Did other things for a living, other things for hobbies. I'd burned out on programming because I wasn't doing the sorts of things I wanted to be doing with it. Now I'm getting back into it and I just don't have any interest in Java. It feels like it's designed for slow, plodding steps, and writing code in it feels like I'm doing a lot of favors for the language rather than working on something interesting. Right now I'm building small stuff in Python and dabbling in Clojure. Python lets me feel like the language is not at all a source of friction. I write the code as fast as I know what the code should be doing. Java does not feel like that at all. It's got its limitations, and there's certain things I'd drop back into C for if I wanted to do them, but Python is a language I can almost ignore while I'm using it, if that makes sense. Clojure is a whole different animal, and I'm mostly using it to stretch my brain a bit. Get some concepts I'd like to learn.

akamaka 16y ago

Windows lacked the fit and finish of the Macintosh. But it didn't matter. Because there were hundreds of Windows machines whereas there was only a few variations of Macintosh... This has long been the conventional wisdom, but given recent history, I'm less and less convinced that it's true. There's a myriad of other factors to consider, like hardware decisions, marketing strategies, and much more. It's really quite imprudent to bet on Android for only that reason.

protomyth 16y ago
I sometimes wonder if Novell didn't help Microsoft in the business market more than seems to get reported. Novell provided a pretty good (for the time) networking solution that allowed decent management.

thought_alarm 16y ago

But the iPhone and iPad aren't priced at a premium. Anyway, it's a mistake pit Google against Apple. The real battle will be between Google and Microsoft for the exact same hardware manufacturers and sales channels. (Meanwhile, you can buy an iPad from an Apple Store or from Walmart without any carrier involvement). Google hasn't managed the fragmentation problem very well, they haven't done enough to control the quality the Android OS between carriers and manufacturers, and they've utterly mismanaged the Android Market. I'm no fan of Microsoft or WinMo 7, but I expect Microsoft to do a much better job at addressing all of those issues. Microsoft can also leverage their Zune desktop software. And Microsoft's development tools are generally very popular with developers. I've done some work with WPF and I found it very impressive and I would expect their Phone SDK to be of similar quality. On the other hand, even though I generally like Java I'm finding the move from iPhone development to Android development to be a depressing step backwards both in terms of the dev tools and especially the SDK. Then again, it is Microsoft we're talking about. It may take them another 3 or 6 years to get it right.

naner 16y ago
And Microsoft's development tools are generally very popular with developers. Yes, very popular with .NET developers. That's the problem with Microsoft, everything is coupled together and isolated from anything non-Microsoft. You're usually either a .NET developer or an everything-else developer. Everyone else has free development tools/environments. Everyone else has vibrant online communities. Everyone else shares and collaborates with open source projects (strategically at least).
- akho 16y ago
  StackOverflow is somewhat .NET-biased, and it’s probably the most vibrant online community available. Mono provides a free development tool/environment built around skills easily transferred to .NET. Microsoft even occasionally collaborates with Mono. Also, “everything is coupled together” occasionally becomes a feature. However, what do I know — I haven’t ever used a Microsoft OS on a computer I control. .NET seems nice, though.

GHFigs 16y ago

Because there were hundreds of Windows machines whereas there was only a few variations of Macintosh, all controlled by the same company and priced at a premium. By this formula, one ought to have been bullish about PlaysForSure--a platform with over a dozen music stores and compatible player devices from almost two dozen vendors. But we saw what happened there: the platform was beaten by a single store with a few variations of player all controlled by the same company and priced at a premium. Neither example is strongly predictive, but I think this one is a bit more relevant, for reasons which should be obvious.

jsz0 16y ago

I hate when people cheer lead for one particular gigantic corporation to own the market History shows that isn't very good for consumers. Why not cheer lead for a healthy diverse market with lots of competition?

megablast 16y ago
Most of us do, just the fanboys are louder and more rabid.
tomjen3 16y ago
As a developer you want to target only on phone, and you then want that phone to have as wide a market-share as possible, so you will have more people who can buy your app. As a user, you want to buy only one phone and then want that phone to have as wide a market-share as possible so there will be more apps for it. As a competing phone manufacture you are outnumbered, so it doesn't matter what you want.
guyjin 16y ago
'cuz i like what I have and I want it to be successful.

tjr 16y ago

Five years ago I think I had some Samsung phone, maybe; I don't remember for sure. Or that might have been the year that I first got a Palm Treo. I went through three Palm Treos because they kept failing. Maybe the iPhone, or Android, or both, will still be with us long-term. Maybe not. I don't really get majorly attached to my mobile phone; if the iPhone isn't the most totally awesomest phone for me next time I get a new one, then maybe I'll get something else, and leave the iPhone as a distant memory, along with the Samsungs, and the Motorolas, and the pile of defunct Palm Treos. (For that matter, I already have my original iPhone stuffed away somewhere, while my shiny new iPhone 4 is in active use...)

protomyth 16y ago

The one thing I really don't get about this type of article is the predictions based on a management team that isn't at the company. Apple's current management team was behind the iPod strategy and inherited an already niche market with the Macintosh. I don't look to the actions of Thomas Edison to determine what GE next strategy will be. With the iPod they started with a "high" price and introduced models that filled in the low-end. They also built and ecosystem around it. Also, this "there-can-be-only-one" crud doesn't really happen in many markets.

ndl 16y ago

Ever since "losing" to Microsoft on the desktop, Apple have slowly perfected their strategy for being the smaller alternative. They find the most lucrative niche and design to the point where they can own that piece of the market. Built into Apple products is a sense of superiority, the feeling that the rest of the world is jealous and frustrated. It's in their ads, and its in their users. This has shown its effectiveness in the computer market, and it will probably make them a ton of money on the mobile scene as well. But Apple didn't have to do this in the mobile world. The iPhone was the default smartphone. I was once talking with a rather avid iPhone user who he asked me "what's the market for Android?" I fina;ly convinced him that it could be everyone when I replied, "what's the market for Windows?" The iPhone is a product. It has a target niche, a company behind it, a list of features, and everything else one expects. Android is not - it's a platform. The Droid is a product. The Nexus one is a different product. Like Windows, Android twists and bends to the offerings of each vendor. Android has the more scalable long tail strategy - instead of trying to please your customers directly, let the market mold your product into as many forms as it will pay for. I don't think that Apple have necessarily screwed up. They may have given up the big fish, and they may have had a reason. For one, Apple are doing what they're best at. They also may have a strategy that integrates with the Mac. They may also be right. Maybe the mobile phone isn't the next computer. Maybe it's like the iPod, best at doing one thing very well. I think Apple is making a mistake in breaking developer trust. As long as they keep market dominance, people will keep coming back to them, but as the numbers show, Android is poised to surpass. When there are many more Androids out there than iPhones, iPhone dev is gonna be a tough sell.

irons 16y ago
When there are many more Androids out there than iPhones, iPhone dev is gonna be a tough sell. What do you think the ratio of Android-to-iOS installed base is going to have to be before the median Android developer is making as much money as the median iOS developer? To get to that point, how many significantly different Android devices is an Android developer going to be expected to target? Looking at this market through the context of the PC wars of the 90s is a mistake, as is assuming that developer allegiance is a function of handset sales.

code_duck 16y ago

I've noticed that too, that Google seems to have created the Windows of mobile phones, while Apple, of course, is the Apple of mobile phones. So, where does that leave Microsoft?

stcredzero 16y ago

It's inevitable that the mobile phone backed by the cloud is going to take the place of the Personal Computer. A pocket sized device will be your personal computer. Larger form factors will only exist to provide input and display facilities that can't live in the pocket-sized one.

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

mjfern 16y ago

This article by Fred Wilson (AVC) highlights the rise of Android and ARM as the dominant players (and standard) in the next wave of computing (along with Apple and others as strong niche players). For the last several decades, the Wintel standard has dominated personal computing (PC). If we look at current market share data, Microsoft’s and Intel’s position in the PC market appears unassailable. As of September 2010, the Windows OS controlled 91% of the PC market (Net Applications, 2010), while Intel microprocessors controlled just over 80% (IDC, 2010). But what if personal computing is shifting away from desktops and packaged applications, the stronghold of Windows and Intel, to a combination of “thin devices,” cloud computing, and online media? Thin devices are smartphones, tablets, connected televisions, and a myriad of other devices that connect to the cloud to access various online media, from video to social networking. In view of this transition, the future actually looks quite bleak for Microsoft and Intel, despite their strong position in the PC market. Microsoft has struggled mightily in the smartphone and online media markets, and is reluctant to aggressively enter the cloud in fear that it will cannibalize sales of Windows and Office. Meanwhile Intel has struggled to produce microprocessors that appeal to thin device OEMs, where energy efficiency is prioritized over sheer computing power. If Microsoft and Intel, and the Wintel standard are fading, then which companies and which standards are rising? Apple has been pushing the frontier in computing with its collection of thin devices (iPod Touch, iPhone, iPad, the Apple TV) and its media platforms (iTunes and the App Store). Google has also invested substantially in these new computing markets with Android on thin devices (smartphones, tablets, smartbooks, set-top boxes, and connected televisions) and Google’s growing suite of cloud services (e.g., Gmail, Maps, YouTube, Android Market). Looking at current trends, it appears that the diffusion of Android and ARM may be accelerating past competitors. Recent NPD and Nielsen data indicate that Android sales have now overtaken Apple’s iOS and Blackberry’s RIM in the smartphone market. And analyst Paul Morland of KBC Peel Hunt estimates ARM’s market share in microprocessors will increase from 29% to 40% from 2010-2014. Meanwhile Android and ARM are on the cusp of rising in emerging device markets, such as tablets and connected televisions. If the last several decades of personal computing was dominated by the Wintel standard, with AMD and Apple as the scrappy competitors. It appears the future of computing may be dominated by Armdroid (or a slight variant based on the Google Chrome OS), with Apple and several others as strong niche players. Of course there will be other companies that will rise and sustain their position as dominant players in other segments of computing, from enterprise cloud services (e.g., Salesforce.com) to online video (e.g., Netflix), and online retail (e.g., Amazon). I just posted this to my blog and submitted the post to HN. If you enjoyed the read, I'd appreciate an upvote (the article title is "Armdroid"). Thanks!

netcan 16y ago

An interesting thing that comes out in a lot of these topics is how people are historical determinists when it come to tech platforms. "The way OS wars work is..." To me it seems like so much is different that I'd be very hesitant to have such a strong opinion. The players are established companies, it's phones and tablets (cheaper devices with shorter lives), the web is the killer app, software development is easier (in many ways), it's twenty years later....

SwellJoe 16y ago
And yet Apple have been making the same mistakes they made during the original PC wars.
- netcan 16y ago
  That's what I'm talking about (or are you being disingenuous). Calling them mistakes (I assume you mean creating the more closed environment) is assuming that OS wars inevitably play out a certain way.
  - SwellJoe 16y ago
    I'm not sure what could be interpreted as disingenuous about my comment. Openness is not a tactic of any particular war. It is simply the best thing for consumers and developers. The notion that openness doesn't matter in this "war" just because the devices look different and the battleground is the web, is nonsensical. I would argue that openness matters even more now than it did in the late 80s and early 90s, because the form factors are more widely varied, and the number of people who can directly participate is dramatically higher. Regardless of Apple fanboyism and arguments about the war being "different this time", Android is already winning. There are more Android phones shipping than iPhones.
    - netcan 16y ago
      hey. hey. I'm on no particular side of anything. I'm not arguing that openness doesn't matter. I can't figure out where you got that. Of course you can argue that openness is more important. My observation is that when people do make those kind of arguments they make a sort of a deterministic argument surprisingly often. Incidentally, the rest of this thread is a good place to make your argument that android is already winning.

fredwilson 16y ago

wow great conversation i am just seeing this now i wish disqus could pick up this entire discussion and post it into the comments on my blog it would greatly enrich the conversation there and i would be able to engage in real time, not a day later